Why Trump May Be Hard to Beat in 2020
Tribal Analytics And The New Diversity
From Exchange Matters, by Global Ties U.S.
Global Ties U.S., a legendary non-profit organization, and leader in the field of international exchange brought in John Zogby Strategies to host a workshop on Tribal Analytics.
Do Americans Want A Basic Universal Income?
By John Zogby Strategies
Universal Basic Income is a progressive policy currently being piloted in a variety of ways in several nations around the world. Icons like Mark Zuckerberg and Bernie Sanders have openly praised it.
From Wikipedia, Universal Basic Income “is a form of social security in which all citizens or residents of a country receive a regular, unconditional sum of money, either from a government or some other public institution, independent of any other income.”
John Zogby Strategies asked a question about a variation of Universal Basic Income to determine whether or not this hotly debated issue has any traction on American soil.
We asked, “How likely are you to support the idea of a Universal Basic Income for all Americans who are currently at or below the poverty line?” The following analysis combines choices Very Likely and Somewhat Likely into “in favor of” and Not Likely At All and Somewhat Unlikely into “not in favor of.”
Overall, this is a close one with 40% in favor of, 35% not in favor of, leaving exactly one-quarter not sure.
Regarding income, UBI is most popular, not surprisingly, with those who earn less than $35K annually. A slight majority are in favor (51%), leaving 23%, not in favor of and 26% not sure. While considerably lower, still, one-third (33%) of $75K+ income earners are in favor of the idea whereas 46% are not. The middle-income bracket ($35K-$75K) are pretty evenly split with 37% lending support, 35% not in favor of, and 28% not sure.
Younger Millennials (18-24 years of age) are the least likely to support with only 27% in favor. The highest support for this variation of a Universal Basic Income (51%) comes from older millennials (25-34 years of age). Understandable since older millennials launched their careers amidst the Great Recession. Those aged 35-54 (mostly Gen X) sustain fairly high support coming in at 43%, while support drops with the two oldest cohorts, those aged 55-69 and 70+, both at 34%.
Looking at party, almost three in five (59%) Democrats are in favor compared to about one in five (19%) Republicans, and nearly four in ten (38%) from those who identified as “Other” party.
As long as the trend of wealth concentration in fewer hands continues, support for far-reaching measures such as Universal Basic Income has real potential to gain further steam; perhaps even the purest form of it calling for supplementary income for all citizens regardless of income. While supporters of UBI believe it can help alleviate poverty by creating a guaranteed safety net, critics point to past and current examples of welfare programs, arguing it tends to create generational dependency and increased poverty.
In the final analysis, Universal Basic Income remains up in the air due to an almost even split. More importantly, a quarter of the public is not sure, either because of a lack knowledge of what it is or its overall effectiveness.
Which side is likely to sway the undecided and form majority support on the issue of Universal Basic Income? And which variation of it is likely to be debated in the U.S.?
Trump Report Card: Full Employment Can’t Hide Legal Troubles
From the Washington Examiner, by John Zogby
The unemployment rate is now at almost what economists would call full employment and another 261,000 new jobs were created last month. The stock market is at new record levels and consumer confidence has grown again.
But all is not well. Two major campaign aides to President Trump were indicted on Monday for laundering Russian money. While the charges are not about their 2016 campaign activities, grand juries are most often used to probe other charges and Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller certainly wants to hear what they have to say about others in the campaign. The president may be fair game on this.
Mr. Trump has thrown his Secretary of State under the bus again — sending unclear diplomatic messages just as he makes a trip to some very nervous Asian nations.
The GOP has finally submitted a tax reform plan, but a plan is not a deal. This one is full of holes — proposing to end deductions for state and local taxes as well as for high mortgage payments. It also promises to raise the deficit by $1.4 trillion over ten years. Anything that raises the deficit, without corresponding cuts in spending, must get 60 votes. It does not look like any Democrat will support it, so how does any of it pass?
One bright spot for the President is former DNC chair (and now probably former Democratic operative) Donna Brazile’s new book on how Hillary Clinton hijacked the Democratic Party and screwed everybody else. Sure to be a best seller.
Mr. Trump’s polling numbers barely moved but he is still here.
Trump’s Grade: C-