Biden Leads Trump by 6 Points; Lead Drops to 3 Points with Four Candidates; But Voters Still Think Trump Will Win In November

New John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll

A new poll of 1007 likely voters taken two days after the Republican National Convention reveals that former Vice President Joe Biden now leads President Donald Trump 48% to 42%, with 10% undecided. The nationwide online poll was conducted on August 29, 2020, by John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points for overall results.

With Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen and Green Party’s Howie Hawkins added in, Biden slips to a 45%-42% lead, with 3% selecting Jorgensen and 2% preferring Hawkins. Hawkins appears to be grabbing 3 points from Democrats and 5 points from Hispanics. Jorgensen receives 7% from independent/unaffiliated voters and 4% from 18-29-year-olds.

The new poll of the 2-way alone shows Biden and Trump scoring what they need to achieve within their own parties – Biden 90%-7% among Democrats, Trump 87%-7% among Republicans – and Biden with only a 4-point lead among independent/unaffiliated voters, 41%-37%.
While Trump leads 50%-38% with white voters, Biden appears to be in good shape with Hispanics 68%-26%. Following the RNC, the John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll has some potentially troubling news for the former VP: Trump is polling 20% among Blacks to Biden’s 75% with 5% undecided.

The two candidates are tied among men (46% Trump, 45% Biden), but the gender gap lives with Biden leading among women 51%-39%. Biden holds double-digit leads among voters in cities (59%-33%) and suburbs (51%-41%) – but Trump dominates in rural areas by 27 points, 57%-30%).
This poll reveals no so-called “enthusiasm gap” with a total of 94% of Biden supporters saying their vote is solid (60% definite and 34% very strong and not likely to change), and 89% of Trump supporters expressing the same sentiment (56% definite, 33% very strong and not likely to change).

Nonetheless, a small plurality of voters – 43% to 40% — believes Trump will win. That includes 80% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats, and 37% of independents/unaffiliated. Two in three Democrats (66%) say they will “accept the results of the election if Trump wins) and 70% of Republicans say they will do the same if Biden wins. But 20% of Democrats will not accept a Trump victory nor will 18% of Republicans accept a Biden victory.

Veteran Pollster John Zogby: There is still a long way to go. Biden holds on to a lead but the May 2020 John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll had Biden leading by 13 points. A 6 point lead is not enough to fire up for a victory lap. Biden should be pleased with his support among Democrats, women, and Hispanics but a lead of 75%-20% among Blacks can spell real trouble. A Democrat needs 90%+ and a high turnout among Blacks. Could it be that Trump’s law and order message is hitting home among Blacks who are worried about demonstrations getting out of control? Biden holds 52%-35% among 18-29-year-olds but Barack Obama won with 66% in 2008 and 61% in 2012 among this young cohort. (After Labor Day we will have a more detailed look at 18-29-year-olds among a much larger sample.) Biden is underperforming. Meanwhile, Trump needs to be concerned that one in five self-described conservatives are supporting Biden and that his 12 point lead among white voters is not enough to offset his deficit among Hispanics. Biden seems to have eliminated the enthusiasm gap and cut into the perception that Trump will win (especially polling right on the heels of the Republican National Convention – but this is certainly not over). Historically, support for minor party candidates dwindles as the race between major party candidates gets fierce and tight – but both candidates need to be looking over their shoulder, particularly Biden at Hawkins who may be picking up disaffected Sander’s supporters.