We predicted that Trump would get a bump after the convention and he did. The race is certainly becoming more competitive. At this point Biden is leading Trump 48 to 42. But when we look at the support that other major 3rd party candidates have, including the Libertarian and Green candidates, the race is even tighter. Today we’ll dig into how early voting and 3rd parties can affect the outcome this November, how Trump and Biden are defining the race and the future of the black vote in America.
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SHOW NOTES:
01:25 – The Candidates Define The Race:
For Biden this race is about restoration, empathy and stability. In terms of his pick of Harris as VP, in effect she’s had zero impact on the race.
Trump has defined himself as a law and order president. He’s foregoing national unity and trying to shore up his base and groups where he has slipped in support, including trying to win a sliver of support from black Americans – where he can cut in enough to make a big difference. How is this possible? It’s all about safety and security.
This antagonism between far left groups and far right groups is not going away – so this conversation around law and order will continue through the fall.
10:00 – The Four Way Horse Race:
People are voting now – around 50% of those we have surveyed have stated they intend to vote early and by mail. This can have an impact particularly if they’re voting for 3rd party candidates at this early stage.
13:00 Jobs & The Economy:
The latest report says the economy added over a million jobs last month but perception can be different than reality. If I’m still someone who is out of work, do I still feel like the economy is recovering and how might that affect my vote?
15:45 An Ocbober Surpise?
What could an October surprise be? An economic recovery – unlikely, but numbers can be compelling. A vaccine? Either could be a game changer that could propel Trump to a 2nd term.
20:02 – What’s the future of the Black Vote?
We believe you’ll see a growing black independent voter. It’s possible we’ll see the American version of Balkanization in the major parties.
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Cannot wait until next week with your survey of black voters. What is churning this key demographic? It seems ironic that swiftly following the first major party nomination of a woman of color to the Vice Presidency that 20% of black voters erratically shifted their allegiance to Donald Trump, a radical racist whose disdain for peoples of color has been the central hallmark of his appeal to the MAGA base. The potential for October Surprises seems painfully real. With this week’s performance of the DJIA, and the seasonal tendency to exaggerate problematic financial scenarios, next week could be even more interesting in the markets. The specter of a COVID vaccine hastily entering the equations before the election conjures up even more uncertainty and could well make Donald Trump look even more desperate, foolish and opportunistic, if that is possible.