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John Zogby: it's Tuesday and this is an edition of the Zogby Report real and unscripted. We do this pretty much every week, although the days vary depending on news or no news. Jer, how you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: I'm hanging in there. How about you?
John Zogby: I'm doing okay. We're Surviving a kind of busy period. But who's complaining about being busy?
John Zogby: Right?
Jeremy Zogby: Not me.
John Zogby: Not me either. Okay. So it's October. Okay. What October conjures up in my mind, Reggie Jackson, of course, right? Mr. October, he would come alive conjures up October surprised. First time we ever heard that term was buttons that were made in 1972. Nixon versus McGovern. And the McGovern people were [00:01:00] saying, What's the October surprise? Feeling that Richard Nixon would come up with something up his sleeve. October 9th was the target date.
Jeremy Zogby: Hmm.
John Zogby: And since that time, that's always been a concern because we've had a lot of close elections. This century and what's going to break the ice what's going to tilt the scale one way or another and I've been through a bunch of them, you know, well, 2000 gore versus. Bush and Bush versus Kerry in 2004, really to some degree Obama versus McCain and Obama versus Mitt Romney in 2012. Hillary in 2016 against Trump and then Trump against Biden. These were tight races. And the pendulum would swing back and forth. They didn't stay tight one point races throughout the [00:02:00] daily tracking in October.
John Zogby: In fact, you'd see movement for a three or four point lead for one candidate. And you'd think, well, the next day when we average in the, the new calls that we were making, we'd see that candidate who had been ahead three or four points, ice it. Just move to a 5 6 point lead. Never happened. It would swing all the way back to the opponent getting a 3 or 4 point lead. So to some degree that's happening here in 2024, except within a much narrower parameter, right? No four or five point leads, really. Yeah, here and there, there, there's an outlier poll. Generally speaking Trump is back in the lead. Well, what a one point lead or a two point lead. The battleground states Trump is now dominant.
John Zogby: Sure. He's up 0. 2 in Pennsylvania. Yeah. [00:03:00] 0. 8 in Arizona. And, of course, through a variety of means, not the least of which is a margin of sampling error, it could tilt, and will tilt, back the other way. But here are the questions that I have. Is it going to stay this way? I have a hunch that this is more like 2012, and I've said this before. I have a hunch that this is going to stay at equilibrium until the weekend before. And then I just have this sense that the dam is going to break. That either young women will wake up in the morning and say, Look what a threat to reproductive rights. What a threat on climate change. What a threat on guns. I've got to get out there and vote. As they did in 2012, and 73 percent voted for [00:04:00] Obama. Folks are going to wake up, particularly young men and say, look, I've got to vote. Crime is out of hand. The border is out of hand. Woke ism is just destroying my world and confusing my world. What's the role of a man, a young man in today's society. And there'll be a big swing for Trump. And that's the one I can't figure out. I think there'll be. a damn breaking the weekend before, but I just can't figure out yet which way that's gonna be.
Jeremy Zogby: Hmm. Yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: I'll build on that. I mean, in some ways, 2016 was like that. Not in terms of the the lead, you know, that, that Obama won in I guess you could, I guess you could say almost a landslide, right? In, in 20, in 2012.
John Zogby: 2012? Yeah, what it was was a lot of [00:05:00] little victories, but a big electoral college.
Jeremy Zogby: big Electoral College and a very comfortable, decisive popular vote. And so 2016 wasn't that, but 2016 was the, you know, definitely the electoral win, but the the dam breaking in the final weekend with Comey. And and WikiLeaks, and I suspect that these were, you know, on the WikiLeaks side that these were things that were targeted towards certain cohorts, probably more independent minded folks who.
Jeremy Zogby: We're on the fence. This is always the dynamic is that there, there are those who are tormented. And, and I, I see this, I hear this all the time. I, I discussed this recently that I have a neighbor who put in 40 years with the department of transportation, fourth generation Democrat, he's married to a Trump voter and a MAGA voter.
Jeremy Zogby: And he said he's torn, you know, on the one hand, Fox news is [00:06:00] blaring all day long in his house. And when his brother in law comes over, it's, you know, he's just, it's too much for him. But on the other hand, he said, he's thinking of his kids and his grandkids and he's scared for them. And what he's telling me is, is that he's without saying it, he's, he's saying that he knows, or he believes that Trump would deliver on the economy.
Jeremy Zogby: That's what he's fearful of. He's fearful of. the future economic prospect for the next generation or two. And I, I think you have a lot of these complicated situations where we, you know, we tend to forget there are a lot of married couples where you have a Democrat and a Republican, and that creates some very interesting dynamics, right?
Jeremy Zogby: Maybe one side is more vocally powerful than the other. You have those who are silent, who are saying, they don't want to admit, they know deep down who they're going to vote for. So that scenario is going to move the needle, but what is going to push it? And I, [00:07:00] I see, I see two very complex dynamics. One is style and substance of the candidates.
Jeremy Zogby: We're in a very bizarre situation right now where Kamala was catapulted to, to this, this, you know, this magnificent You know euphoria that, that really moved the needle and brought her forward and this campaign built on joy. Right. And the Democrats had, it was projected to them that she's the joyful candidate.
Jeremy Zogby: And, and, you know, she's just a very optimistic forward looking person. Meanwhile, you have the other candidate who previously had been describing a dystopic future. I mean, going back to even during his presidency, describing a dystopic future of crime laden cities, crime ridden cities. You know, I asked a poll question a year ago, whether voters, what they had, what they thought their vision of future cities [00:08:00] were.
Jeremy Zogby: And 40 percent of voters said that they saw in three to five years, Cities as, as basically places where gangs of marauders and criminals roam, roam the streets. And Donald Trump really infused that vision, but now he has become the victim of, of violence. Two assassination attempts, two takes on his head.
Jeremy Zogby: And the joyful Democrats say, well, how, why is he so angry? And there's such this disconnect. Well, yeah, I mean, the guy had two attempts on his assassination. And so now he's angry and that's what's, what's driving his, his a lot of the messaging in his campaign, but you've got those moderates. You've got those torn people, those tormented voters who don't know whether they should go to the more optimistic, even though they recognize that the future generations face some very difficult [00:09:00] times, likely, right?
Jeremy Zogby: Nothing's guaranteed, but likely. Or they've got a guy who, who they feel has a better proven economic record, but it's really the anger that's turning them off. All that Trump really had to do in the debate was, was really just conjure up Ronald Reagan. And in maybe six varying ways communicate the same message in different ways, saying, are you better off looking the, you know, looking at the camera, looking at the viewers.
Jeremy Zogby: Are you better off than you were four years ago and, and just building on that. But he got lured into the personal attacks and that's, that's a very fascinating dynamic that makes it difficult for these undecideds and these tormented voters who are going to cast their vote ultimately leading up to the election.
Jeremy Zogby: The last thing I want to talk about now are the events going back to the October surprise. We have entered the [00:10:00] month of the surprise and I think we have our first two surprises, right? And so we should be paying attention to what impact this will have on moving voters. Two things, 31 ports, this is my understanding, 31 ports on strike from Maine all the way down to, to the Gulf Coast.
Jeremy Zogby: What does that have on the economy? I mean, they're saying 5 billion a day Well, who knows how long this goes on? Does this create a supply chain crisis? Does that exacerbate prices? I would argue that works in Trump's favor. The other thing now is the start of a ground invasion in Lebanon, which signals to me the Middle East coming completely undone at the seams.
Jeremy Zogby: And really is, I think the last, that's the last point before you may have a direct confrontation. Between Iran and [00:11:00] Israel because who else does Israel have left to to attack? They've they've attacked the houthis. They've attacked gaza. They've attacked lebanon Of course, they there have been exchanges with iran But now now we face full fledged war in the entire region of the middle east and so those are two big bangs Already in the beginning of october.
Jeremy Zogby: So I think we will know in the next, you know, 21 to 25 days You And, and probably other events too, which way the needle is going to move.
John Zogby: Okay. I, you know, obviously, I think you're taking note of the A dockworker strike is very, very important because the economy right now, you know, shows some signs of slowing down, but some signs of stabilizing. This is clearly a destabilizing Factor at the very least, whatever [00:12:00] 5 billion a day means to the average consumer, the perception is that it's out of control and if it's resolved and the workers get anywhere near their, the 50 percent wage increase that they're requesting, that of course has enormous implications for other strikes and in other industries. So you're right. That's something to pay attention to. You're equally right, if not more, about the destabilization in the Middle East. And that's one of those things that makes, possibly people wake up in the morning and say, when's this going to stop? People don't like long wars. And so at the very least this round, we're going back to an intense war. And, and violence and victimization and asymmetrical genocide [00:13:00] going back to October 8th of last year. So next week, that will be a full year. And as you point out, we're in the Lebanon Israel is now bombing parts of Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen and projecting something different when it comes to Iran.
John Zogby: Iran, of course, is. Shown restraint because there's no way they're going to win militarily against Israel with backup, of course, from the United States. And so the question on the minds of foreign policy experts is when is their regime change? In Iran, you know, when does Khamenei, the Ayatollah get thrown out? Obviously their economy is hurting. It's hurting particularly from sanctions. Things are not going well in their regional war, you [00:14:00] know, with, has in Yemen and, and Lebanon and Gaza and so there's signs of things cracking. And if that regime cracks, then what you do have is a regional war.
John Zogby: You have destabilization in Iran. So it's hard, it's hard for me to see any kind of positive scenario. When, when I hear the notion of, well, we're going to escalate, this is the Israeli defense forces. We're going to escalate so we can then deescalate. That just means bodies and deaths and destruction, but it also means that the vision that Netanyahu and his cabinet and generals have is that we're going to have then a regional summit, and a regional summit that's not going to include the public. Palestinians not going to [00:15:00] include Shia representation in Lebanon, not going to include the traditional leadership in Iran, whoever that new leadership may be. And it's going, it reminds me in many ways of Versailles and just painting over recreating a world without. The will of people on the ground,
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, no, that's absolutely true. And, and the question becomes, does that regional war become a proxy war? In some ways, it probably already is a proxy war, right? Because standing behind the two main adversaries of Iran and Israel, are the United States on one side and Russia and China on the other. And one could argue BRICS And, and this actually plays, I think, into, into Trump's favor, because he can always repeat the famous [00:16:00] mantra, didn't happen on my watch, happened on Biden's watch, and guess who was the number two in command?
Jeremy Zogby: Well, that's what you're going to get. You're going to get more of that. And it's the same thing that he's drilling with the economy. But I think it's, as I already alluded to, or made very clear, those undecided voters can't get behind the rage. What they need are their fears and their concerns alleviated.
Jeremy Zogby: And I, I really believe that if Trump were to introduce that extra dynamic and go beyond the one in the two dimensional. think that he would, I think that the polls would start showing in his favor, but that, that's his, that's his that's his weakness. Harris's strength is also her weakness. Her, her strength was being catapulted in the euphoria.
Jeremy Zogby: But I do see the potential in the final stretch for that to fizzle out. It's hard [00:17:00] to maintain, you know you know, anything that goes parabolic or, or I I'm exaggerating when I say exponential, cause that doesn't happen in polls, but the equivalent of that in public opinion and polls, when, when, when, Sentiment or a candidate is catapulted into a lead.
Jeremy Zogby: It's very difficult to maintain that, especially in a very divided nation with very complex issues.
John Zogby: especially when external factors are working against you, that this is a very volatile economy. It's a very volatile region. And thus far the Biden administration is not really showing any global leadership or any sense whatsoever that the United States wishes to play a positive role. Giving Israel a carte blanche in the region. Is not going to breed love for [00:18:00] Israel and already has not bred love for the United States and that is working against, um, Kamala Harris. Okay. So we got a vice presidential debate tonight. We're going to watch. And we'll have a podcast on it whenever we can connect our schedules together, we'll talk about who did what, who did well and what their role, Tim, Tim Walls and JD Vance, what their role in this campaign has and will be. Any final thoughts?
Jeremy Zogby: No, I, I think we covered a decent ground and I'll just watch that tonight and, you know, we'll we'll follow up on that.
John Zogby: I have one final thought.
John Zogby: My book is out there and you're going to see it on the screen and in this book Beyond the Horse Race, How to Read Polls and Why We Should, I take a [00:19:00] look based on a whole history of doing polls on the mistakes that people make. I think particularly those who should know better. In reading polls, there've been recent articles by quote polling experts who take our industry to task for because we don't nail every election by a tenth of a percent. And I argue that that's just the wrong headed way of looking at the richness of what polls can tell us. The book is available and and buy it.
John Zogby: And then we'll, we'll see after the Walz Vance debate. Take care, Jer.
Jeremy Zogby: Signing out and have a great rest of the week.