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[00:00:07] John Zogby: Hi, it's Friday, a snowy, snowy day in upstate New York and welcome to our recast podcast, now entitled Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. Here's where Jeremy and I take a look at our most recent polling and dissect it, try to find out the further meanings behind the numbers, which, Basically is what we try to do in all the work that we do. Jer, how you doing?
[00:00:37] Jeremy Zogby: I'm doing well, how about you?
[00:00:39] John Zogby: I'm doing okay. So let's get right down to it. You've got some fresh numbers here to look at. Last week, we took a close look at, President Trump's approval rating, and we had found that, his approval rating 49 percent and disapproval [00:01:00] 48 percent actually mirrored. The polling results overall, from November, the actual election results, but we went a little further. We saw that there were, it was almost turned upside down, in terms of younger voters and African American voters, Latino voters, others. leaning more in support of, of Trump and Trump, picking up quite a bit. You've got some new numbers and some new details, asking, a different sort of question than just approval or not kind of projecting into the future.
[00:01:44] Why don't you share those
[00:01:46] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, yeah, let me, yeah, so, so, the broad theme here is beyond the top line, because those who follow the polls, the classic questions of [00:02:00] approval, disapproval, right direction, off on the wrong track, those are snapshots in, in, in the moment, and of course every poll is a snapshot of the moment. But those questions are dealing with, people's, favorable or unfavorable views or approvals or disapproval views of this moment.
[00:02:24] What about what voters expect to happen in the grand scheme of the, the Trump presidency in this moment? As you said, this is a, a projective question. This is a looking to the future of what. Voters and not just voters, but as I point out here, a new paradigm of voters, new paradigm in the sense that the torch has been passed to those under 45 and that there, there are some cohorts as we detailed last time, who, you know, were [00:03:00] once firmly in the camp of the Obama coalition are now moving, have now moved to Trump.
[00:03:06] And so the question that we look at here. and then the third option is, do you expect the Trump presidency to move America forward or set it back? And then, of course, we did have a third option, which would be he'll try to move it forward, but simply, are likely have no impact. And so what we see emerge in all of this data goes well beyond the top line of what we're accustomed to seeing in polls of approval, disapproval.
[00:03:36] And so let, let's dive into this and go back and forth, dad, let me get through the first layer or two, the move America forward, we're going to call them the move America forward camp, and we're calling it MAGA 2. 0 because it's not just your, typical MAGA voters, conservatives, talk radio enthusiasts, evangelicals, [00:04:00] rural voters, Republicans, and men.
[00:04:02] we actually have millennials. And parents with young children, for example, and those who listen to podcasts. And so, of course it's no surprise. first, first overall, 42%, say that the Trump presidency will, will move America forward. 41 percent say he'll set it back. That's pretty typical in our, overall divisiveness of this country.
[00:04:30] Nothing has changed in that regard, but going beyond the top line. Let's, let's move beyond the Omega 1. 0, the conservatives, the talk radio folks, the evangelicals. Millennials, those ages 30 to 44 in our poll, 49 percent say move forward versus 31 percent who say, he'll set us back. That's a significant gap.
[00:04:58] let's look at parents. [00:05:00] 50 percent of parents say that the, the president, We'll move the country forward, and like in the, with the millennials, a significantly lower number say that he'll move us back. And so before I go too far, and go further into the data, why don't I just have you, pepper with some comments?
[00:05:25] John Zogby: You know, this is reminds me an awful lot of, of 2010, 2011, where there had been really very high expectations for Barack Obama and, his support in 2008 just caved in the 2010 election. elections. think we have the same thing here, the degree to which, least at the moment, we see that Joe Biden really blew it. He did a lot of things, got a lot of things that were done. [00:06:00] however, he lost millennial support significantly. had been high expectations for, president. and yeah, When it came to inflation, that was the albatross around his neck. So you have millennials and then you have parents, children 17 and under living at home have greater expectations for Trump, I think.
[00:06:32] That's, first of all, there, there is, overlap between parents of young children and millennials, to, to be sure, but I think it's, a, disappointment gap. That you're saying now, can president Trump hold this group now? He's not, no longer battling from the outside. He's [00:07:00] in charge. And I do know, that just yesterday, the inflation report came out and it's ticking back up to over 3 percent annually.
[00:07:13] Not necessarily a good sign. He's going to have to hope for better.
[00:07:18] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, yeah, I'll touch on on what what you said in the first half. As well as the second half, but first, you know, the podcasters, those who, who trust podcasts, for example, the new media, but, but the, the cohort we identified of, of those who, among all the different news types or news sources, which, which, which voters trust most, the segment who say that, that they trust most podcasts, It's very revealing.
[00:07:54] 64 percent of, of, of that group think that the, the president and his [00:08:00] administration will move the country forward versus 28 percent who say that he'll, he'll set things back. And so what that tells me, and again, you know, that's going to have a lot of overlap with those ages 30 to 44. What that tells me is that the president's, You know, strategy of, of going on podcasts like Rogan and the other big ones that have millions and millions of, of, of listeners and viewers.
[00:08:35] It paid off very well. You know, the thing is, is that Biden and then Kamala Harris more or less avoided that strategy. And, when you look at those who trust the national newspapers and the national networks, it's a different world. They, they are much more negative about Trump. They, they obviously, and that's no surprise, [00:09:00] huge swaths of, of those, cohorts think that, that Trump will set the country back.
[00:09:07] And so Kamala Harris relied on that media. And, of course, it still is. number, number one in terms of when you, when you take national newspapers and national networks, most voters are, you know, combine those two are, are going to go to that information sphere to get their news, but you've got this, this emerging competitors of social media and podcasts.
[00:09:32] And when you get into the new media, it's, it's more in Trump's favor. And that's because that was simply his strategy, his campaign strategy. Was, lighting up, you know, those information spheres. And so, you know, that helps us to understand, that if Trump simply wants to keep those numbers up, a good strategy would be to continue to, to operate in [00:10:00] those information spheres.
[00:10:01] But when, when we look about, when we look at what I'm calling the anti Trump coalition, and I name it that because we see this in the news. These cohorts of voters are mostly defined by just being the anti Trump coalition. And this played out in the election. The Democrats didn't offer a more compelling vision.
[00:10:27] They just basically reacted to everything Trump did and said. And sounded the alarm and that cost them. And so they are defined as the anti Trump coalition. And here's, here's the point that I'm going to get at. They're the usual suspects. It's your liberals. it's your voters, as I said, who, who trust national newspapers and national networks overwhelmingly.
[00:10:51] about 75 percent of them say the, the, that the president is going to set the country back. But when you compare [00:11:00] the anti Trump coalition. To the MAGA 2. 0, what you will see is, is both camps are intense, but the, but MAGA 2. 0 is more diverse. It's like I said, it's, it's beyond conservatives. It's beyond evangelicals and rural voters.
[00:11:18] It's now got into millennials, parents, even 18 to 29 year old voters and, and this new media cohort. And so at the moment today, That is why Trump has the momentum because his coalition currently has gone beyond MAGA 1. 0 and the usual suspects. And it's, it's diversified. And unfortunately for the anti Trump coalition, they've maintained the usual suspects of cohorts.
[00:11:51] And so it's really going to come down to how do the anti Trump coalition become proactive and start to get. [00:12:00] Those former Obama coalition voters, including blacks and Hispanics, who, you know, as we talked about in the last podcast, are, you know, compared to old standards are high on Trump.
[00:12:15] John Zogby: I have, some questions. Okay. I don't know if there are answers, to them immediately, but, is MAGA 2. 0 based on firm beliefs or these new groups reacting mainly negatively towards the Biden administration, which begs the question, can Trump hold them?
[00:12:41] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:12:42] John Zogby: Now, a few flies in the ointment just, yesterday at a news conference, that would be Thursday, news conference, with the Indian prime minister, Trump, indicated that in the short [00:13:00] term, prices could very well rise because of the new tariff policy.
[00:13:05] Policy that there could be some pain Americans will bear pain, but they won't bear long term And so that's a potential fly in the ointment if we're talking about a return of an inflationary Cycle that's not going to rest. Well of dovetails with the second question. I have which is this poll, moderates, are part of the, let's call it the anti MAGA That's more a matter of style, it would appear, than it is a matter of policy or ideology. For moderates, I'm going to speculate here. Maybe too much, too fast, all at once to absorb and not a, [00:14:00] you know, either a modulated policy or, or, moderate people who are in charge, notably trotting, Musk there, who is not known for his modulation and who is truly a lightning rod. so, this week. This month, quite possibly this year, Mr. Trump gets the benefit of the doubt. think if he succeeds. I think there's a universal consensus that the federal government must be trimmed. probably a consensus that it's not the sort of thing that will take 10 years of deliberation and slow attrition and, you know, allowing people to retire at a [00:15:00] comfortable pace and not. replacing them. on the other hand, this the way to do it? Causing this much angst, this much dislocation? just have to see. But for now, our numbers, on in the sense that, they reflect, the overall job approval. which is a tad more favorable than unfavorable.
[00:15:34] Jeremy Zogby: Mm hmm. Yeah. Yeah. And you're right that, you know, Trump also largely won. I think on the economy and that, and, and, and the Democrats and Harris, didn't convince the voters, that, that they would slow the effects of the cost, the rise in cost of living, or that they would even reverse them and that Trump was better positioned with the [00:16:00] economy, for a variety of reasons.
[00:16:02] But as, as you noted, that, you know, if he's saying, and the consensus is that. Prices that that beast of, of inflation and the rise of, of, the cost of living is, you know, taken on a life unto itself and then it's going to continue. That does have the potential to peel back some of that support. But here are two things working for him.
[00:16:34] I would argue that, probably a majority of voters who are feeling the pain, I mean, look, I, I, we talk about eggs as stories in the news, I, I experienced this yesterday, it's getting more and more difficult to get them and, and, you know, what I was paying for eggs shot up, 30 percent yesterday, and, you know, that's just one example, and so, as Americans [00:17:00] face that more and more, If Musk, continues and, and the Department of Government Efficiency continue to reveal the level of, of glut, you know, that existed within the federal government, a lot of Americans are going to be on board with that because, you know, as, as, as those things become revealed, they're going to expect cuts to be made and that, you know, You know, certain elements of society shouldn't be living off the taxpayers.
[00:17:33] Right. So that's one factor. The other is that if inflation continues to get out of control, Trump will probably have to consider bold action in terms of, of monetary reform. And I'm not going to get into this because this, this is a, this is the topic that we could have in the future. But that conversation is [00:18:00] happening at the international level where you have very powerful nations like China and Russia who are, who are, who have been talking for quite a while, what they do with their currency, do they, in fact, go back to, an asset based or backed currency, and I would argue that the United States behind them.
[00:18:23] closed doors is also having that conversation. There was some recent news, regarding the London bullion market. and their vast holdings of gold that are now flooding into the United States. which many people are speculating. The United States is considering some kind of, return to an asset backed currency.
[00:18:50] I'm just saying that if inflation gets out of control, Trump would have to consider what do we do with our currency to protect it.
[00:18:59] John Zogby: [00:19:00] Well, my final comment on policy, and this, could have a substantial bearing on the president's, performance, approval rating, as well as the, the immediate future of the United States and the planet. And that is the, the, you know, he, America first is the theme. And that has suggested as the Pat Buchanan wing of the party has argued, you know, for several decades now that America First means that we can't be the policemen of the world and can't get ourselves into any long term quagmires as we, as we have been prone to do. On the other hand, we see. The preposterous and very sad, [00:20:00] announcement by, by Trump about Gaza to the point of actually moving people out of Gaza and clearing that territory for development. At the same time, now talking about, well, actually sitting down with Vladimir Putin and Putin. Talking about the future of Ukraine and not including the Ukrainians in those conversations, just as Gazans are not included in the Gaza conversation. Doesn't this smack of, power, U. S. as policemen, real politic, and not, America first, that could be. the undoing. It could involve the United States and the quagmire in two separate areas as opposed to withdrawing, [00:21:00] from these areas.
[00:21:02] Something I, I think to, to, pay close attention to. But that's as, as much as I've got to talk about policy. Maybe we can get into that in more detail in the future.
[00:21:14] Jeremy Zogby: Sure. Sounds good.
[00:21:18] John Zogby: Okay, one final comment from me. And that is that you have now listened to Jeremy and me go over a small bit of our polling numbers and then riff, in terms of they mean and what they portend, know, to, to the future when it comes to matters like that about interpreting polling, I've actually written the book. and you'll see it on the screen. It's still fresh. and it's all about the fact that we pull real people and [00:22:00] not just numbers. And so how do you really read polls? How can you understand what the public is saying? There are a lot of lessons and a lot of stories. And so I'd encourage you to take a look and to to buy The, horse race, how to read polls and why we should. That's it for me this week. Jer.
[00:22:24] Jeremy Zogby: No, I'd say that that's a lot for our listeners to digest.
[00:22:29] John Zogby: Okay. good week.
[00:22:31] Jeremy Zogby: Have a good one.