[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: I was concerned. I, I, I thought, okay, he's standing up with his cane. Are, are we gonna get into a brawl?
[00:00:05] John Zogby: he came there to declare himself the conquering hero, and, not simply to swat.
[00:00:13] The Democratic fly, but to ground it, grind it into the carpet.
[00:00:18] Jeremy Zogby: 65% of independent voters say that we're drifting apart. and 78% of Democrats.
[00:00:24] That's no surprise. Only 10% of Democrats think the nation is coming together so that this is, this is all over the place.
[00:00:30] John Zogby: There wasn't an ounce of humanity on the democratic side as well as an ounce of, being an opposition party that meant anything to the American people.
[00:00:42] Jeremy Zogby: this is the youngest portion of the electorate. And among them. It's 41% who say secession is likely at some point in the future. It's [00:01:00] Friday and it means another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. That's us. I'm John Zogby, my son and managing, partner of the company. Jeremy Zogby. How you doing this week?
[00:01:14] Hey, I'm doing good. And, I'm looking forward to this very timely, very important podcast, which we'll dive into the data and some insights on.
[00:01:26] John Zogby: Yeah. And importantly, this is our second podcast this week. We did one on Monday because we had brand new fresh numbers from the weekend. And then obviously the president delivered, major and quite long State of the Union message on Tuesday. And we have some numbers that are. Relevant to that. So just for our listeners and viewers, these are the segments today.
[00:01:52] So, number one, we're gonna take a look, at, at that State of the Union message and recap at some of [00:02:00] the brighter moments and some of the very tense. Moments. we're going to refer to our poll against the backdrop of the State of the Union by reviewing a question that we asked. Are Americans coming together or are they drifting apart?
[00:02:16] We have a new look at the data and it's pretty astounding. we will revisit voters' perception of how likely secession is. You know, it's only been in the last decade and a half that that term has kind of entered the lexicon or the vocabulary of Americans. And, is it alive and, and fresh among some.
[00:02:41] And then what we'll do is we'll take a look at the state of the Union and the state of the nation. What, what did. It all mean and what are the ramifications for us? And then of course, at the end, we will tell you how you can get in touch with us 'cause [00:03:00] we love to hear your comments. And, we'll tell you also about, some other things, about what we're doing.
[00:03:08] But j why don't we start now? Why don't you begin with a brief recap of, of the State of the Union message. I'll jump in as well.
[00:03:17] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I mean, know, you can analyze this from. Obviously what was said, but also was, what was witnessed visually in, in terms of what we saw. And, you know, my interpretation of it, immediately I was struck by the, the long entrance. I mean, I don't think that's too uncharacteristic, although this one seemed a little bit longer. And the, the, the, the long ovation from the right side of, the chamber. And, and, and what appeared, obvious to me instantly was the coldness from, from the Democrats. None of this is, [00:04:00] is necessarily new, but when you kind of go into some further detail, I, I had some, some concerning thoughts. the, the long ovation and the taunting, to the Democrats basically communicating, you're losers.
[00:04:18] Sit down, shut up. You know, you failed and, and of course arrogance on, on the side of the Democrats, but no sooner than, than the start of, of, of the Trump speech and, and the taunting from the Republicans. We saw representative Al Green, standing up, defying and holding a cane. And, and to me, you know, one with an eye to symbolism that cane had some very. Symbolic, gesture to it. Of course, I'm talking about the famous incident in 1856 and the Charles Sumner Caning. Now, you know, in this age of, [00:05:00] of reality TV where reality and television, the lines are blurred. I, I was, I was concerned. I, I, I thought, okay, he's standing up with his cane. Are, are we gonna get into a brawl?
[00:05:12] It, it's, it's, it, it's certainly there was enough tension. but anyway, the, the speech went on. Representative Green was removed from the, from, the, from the spectacle, from the event. And, and, and really it just more or less devolved. I mean, look, Trump and the Republicans are dominating. They're winning big, but they were show boating and, and they were using every chance to show that they were, were winning.
[00:05:42] And that, that's my basic synopsis. And so that's why I think it's important to get to some of these questions about coming together, drifting apart and secession, which we'll do in, in a couple minutes. But what, what about you?
[00:05:56] John Zogby: All right.
[00:05:56] Jeremy Zogby: How did you interpret everything?
[00:05:58] John Zogby: You know, mine [00:06:00] mirrors, your thoughts, and I think we'll also set the table for the data that we have. But, you know, the, the president clearly did, did not go to Congress with, you know, a, a, an olive branch, at all. he came there to declare himself the conquering hero, and, not simply to swat.
[00:06:25] The Democratic fly, but to ground it, grind it into the carpet. And I think as you looked at the Democrats and their silly little pop-up signs and the looks on their faces of total defeat, and then even, I have to say the contempt that they showed. For example, you know, I noticed a representative Debbie Dingle, who I happened to, like, you know, in Michigan, they swung over for a nanosecond to her face.
[00:06:55] While the little boy from New York, who wanted to be [00:07:00] a, a police officer was being honored by the Secret Service and she rolled her eyes and shook her head.
[00:07:06] And so. Trump won and he was there to declare victory. and then it was in your face, you know, talking about some of this, the foreign aid, items that he cut, you know, emphasizing the ridiculous, talking about social security and the waste in social security and actually making a mockery.
[00:07:33] Out of a few of the items, you know, like that there are Americans between 200 and 220 years of age who are, are getting social security. Fact checkers clarified that the next day, but it looked bad and he had his moment. But the thing is having his moment, what's he presiding over? And that's what we're going to talk about right now.[00:08:00]
[00:08:01] this is a broken nation. I think, or at least a broken government. So why don't you start us off with, your first polling item that's relevant.
[00:08:10] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. So the key question, Americans coming together or are they drifting apart? Is It, it is pretty startling. We have here 59% overall, that's three fifths of the country. say that Americans are drifting apart a quarter, say that the country's coming together, 16% say they're undecided, but, you know, who, where, where is the lion's share fall in terms of those who, think the country is coming together or drifting apart? I think the view of party is very telling Republicans are actually more or less split. [00:09:00] It, it, it, it, it's understandable that, that the Republican party as the victors, as, as we've, you know. Talked about, victors in terms of the 24 election and the first 40 days in office, 44% think the country's coming together.
[00:09:18] 37% think it's drifting apart, that 37% I think are more, and and grounded in what the president faces. I do want to note that I understand, you know, putting myself in, in the shoes of President Trump. If, if anybody withstood what he did in, in terms of attack, it, it, it is quite natural to, to come back and, and brag about a, a victory.
[00:09:49] that's, understandable, although it, it, it is worrisome in terms of what it can do in terms of further tearing the country apart. But, independents, 65% of them, [00:10:00] and this is key, 65% of independent voters say that we're drifting apart. And, and 78% of Democrats. That's no surprise. Only 10% of Democrats think the nation is coming together so that this is, this is all over the place.
[00:10:17] and I, the last number I'm gonna show here, I think drives it all home, is the demographic that, you know, looks at which type of media do you trust most? And, I'm, I'm slicing this into legacy media. Versus new media. And we, we know what that is. But if you're a legacy media consumer, 64% of them, say the nation is drifting apart, 22% we're coming together. And if you're a new media follower, trustee, 36% say We're, we're coming together. And less than half, 48% say we're, we're drifting apart. So all of this really [00:11:00] comes down to not just partisan views. But how you consume your information and, and what you trust. And so what we have there is a very divided rep, and public are basically living in,
[00:11:16] John Zogby: Oh.
[00:11:17] Jeremy Zogby: in alternate realities.
[00:11:18] And so, that's to set the stage for the bigger question. why don't you chime
[00:11:26] John Zogby: Yeah, let me jump in here because I don't wanna re-litigate the first Trump presidency, but I do wanna clarify that, even though I always felt that impeachment and two efforts at impeachment was a, a large political mistake simply because. The votes were never gonna be there in the United States Senate to remove the President.
[00:11:51] There's no sense going through a show if you're not gonna be able to, to deliver and you're gonna look bad in the process. So I criticized the [00:12:00] Democrats for that. On the other hand, the, the court system, the president, was reviewed and indicted by several grand juries. For fixing the books. in a civil case of, sexual assault, of tampering, with, the elections of, of, of, actually denigrating, attempting to denigrate the reputation by name of a mother daughter, election workers, in Georgia.
[00:12:35] I mean, there was smoke. Here and for him to portray himself as, as a victim when there was so much smoke. I, I, I, I think is a, honestly, a mischaracterization of those first four years. But, let's, let's move on. What else do you have?
[00:12:55] Jeremy Zogby: well, I mean, you know, this, this feeds into the next [00:13:00] question and, before I get into the numbers on secession, I. and, and, you know, look, we're, we're having a conversation here, with, with with each other. The nation is having a conversation. I'm not taking a side, but what you just laid out in terms of what the president did that was wrong and illegal and unjust and, and worthy of, of facing a grand jury and, and. Whether your opinion is that he should have been found guilty on something, we have to remember that the Biden administration is not without fault. And, and look that that's important because that helps us understand how this, this is brewing and could potentially boil over if we only apply, the scales of justice to one president and his party. But not, the other [00:14:00] president in his party. And we know, and I'm, I'm not gonna get into the laundry list, but voters now know a critical mass of voters now know that the Biden administration was not without fault. The Biden administration was not without guilt. there is a major story that's, Coming out, con continuously more and more about who was running the White House and the, the media that knew that Biden was not cognitively up for the job yet. He was presented as, as he, he was, up for the job cognitively, but clearly he wasn't running the nation. And that was a major scandal.
[00:14:40] And, and there are other scandals and so
[00:14:42] John Zogby: And, and
[00:14:43] Jeremy Zogby: we,
[00:14:43] John Zogby: let that play out J but we're talking and let that play out. you know, for now it's the President's State of the Union. Message the conquering hero. But you know, as we're gonna see here, there's you know, there's [00:15:00] some shattered glass that went along with that.
[00:15:02] Jeremy Zogby: Absolutely. And, just felt it was necessary to, to, to lay out the other side. But I mean, look, I, we asked this question, how likely is it that a state or a group of states could leave the union? And go on their own way. I wanted to boil it down in, in the most common everyday man and woman's language.
[00:15:23] you know, go their own way and in parentheses, otherwise known as secession. and so this is a Likert scale of likelihood, very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, and not likely at all. And, and, you know, we don't ask this question necessarily to. To, to, and to to look to the overall result, to tell us when or if this is going to happen. what we're doing is we're looking for the trend line and I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll display that for you. So, the top line data, [00:16:00] say very likely 18%. Say someone that's 28% who say that there's a degree of likelihood that's over a quarter of Americans.
[00:16:08] John Zogby: high number.
[00:16:09] Jeremy Zogby: what's that?
[00:16:10] John Zogby: It is a high number.
[00:16:11] Jeremy Zogby: It's a high number.
[00:16:12] It's not a, it's not a number that makes you want to go, feeling go to beds, feeling good and, and sleeping well at night. But, and then of course if we, we break it down by party, what will, let me tell you not to likely, 58% say it's, it's, it's not likely in general. And so that's good, right? But when we look at party, actually, The par parties are, are relatively in, in, in aligned in agreement. 22% of Democrats think it's likely, 26% of Republicans think it's likely of independence. So say it's likely. So this is something that they, they agree on, they agree on that they're drifting [00:17:00] apart. They agree on, that, that there is this likelihood.
[00:17:04] But what I found more unnerving and more unsettling. And this is the last data point here is when you look at age. so when you look at age start out on the oldest end, those older than 65, only 15% think it's likely, then you go down to 18 to 29. And this is key because this is the future of the electorate.
[00:17:27] This, this is the youngest portion of the electorate. And among them. It's 41% who say secession is likely at some point in the future. That's huge. I, I want to get your reaction to
[00:17:42] John Zogby: You know, so, you know, interestingly, 'cause we've been asking this question, you know, over the last decade or so, not that long ago, I. During the first, Trump years, and the early Biden years, the number [00:18:00] who thought that secession was likely was in the high thirties, low forties. So maybe we see some progress here.
[00:18:08] On the other hand, I, it's. I wanna use the word troublesome about 18 to 29 year olds. But let's bump that down to concerning, because you're right, they will grow as part of the electorate and with a baseline of 41% now, and we know a high level of, distrust in government and political institutions.
[00:18:41] You know, we don't want to be looking at a lost generation of, of real talent and real humanity that just doesn't see a future in government and politics. And this, I think. Is what we're [00:19:00] looking at when we look at the other question of Elon Musk and Doge. You know, it's one thing to identify waste in government.
[00:19:09] It's one thing to put people out, and humiliate them by, by firing them. But it's also a, a signal to young people, not only a few opportunities. I. In government, but perhaps just no future in government whatsoever, and who's actually going to pick up the pieces of whatever government is left?
[00:19:35] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, and, and you know, I zeroed in on, on age for obvious reasons that there, there, you know, the notion of the youth or the future. But as we know very well that this younger cohort is the most diverse in American history,
[00:19:51] John Zogby: Yeah.
[00:19:51] Jeremy Zogby: not only just in terms of, of of. Skin color, pigmentation and ethnicity and culture, but also viewpoints [00:20:00] having been mostly, or mainly a digital generation. they have probably been exposed to before the age of 18 any other generation in history, just because of technology. But that, that, that, ethnic and racial angle to their diverse nature, It me think of the race, here. And this is pretty staggering too, that when we break it down by white, Hispanic and black, 21% of white voters think it's likely yet 51% of Hispanics say it's likely.
[00:20:41] It's more than twice the amount of white voters who think secession is likely. And then when you look at the black vote, we're up to 39%.
[00:20:50] John Zogby: Yeah.
[00:20:51] Jeremy Zogby: And so, so not only is this a, a, a young old thing, it's also a white, non-white thing, and the [00:21:00] implications of that, are boundless, are, are plentiful, I should say. so why don't we leave it at that with, with the data, because I think we've given our listeners a lot to chew on. May, maybe we could just, you know, come up with some more insights. does this all mean? What to look for, why it's important.
[00:21:22] John Zogby: Okay, I'm gonna, take a different approach from me and I'm, I'm going to at least give the president and Elon Musk some credit for starting a process that's long overdue. The federal government is too fat, it's unsustainable. it does not address the needs of a high tech. America and a high tech savvy population.
[00:21:51] I think it's cruel and inhumane the way it's being done, but I think the door is open for the Democrats in an effort to save [00:22:00] themselves as well as the country to begin the process of a more humane approach to eliminating federal jobs. Look, the federal government is too fat. It is unsustainable and it's a terrible, terrible burden on taxpayers at at every level.
[00:22:22] It needs to be modernized. Technology demands that it does, but by the same token, just as when industries, manufacturers have left communities often in their wake. They have left with severance pay, retraining for a new economy with courses and certifications at community colleges. What's the plan for federal workers who are getting the pink slips on a Friday and a terrible letter saying that their performance, was, was the reason when that's far from true?[00:23:00]
[00:23:00] So I think if the Democrats are listening. instead of holding up those stupid signs, that were embarrassing, get down to meeting with mayors at local level, other frontline people, community college presidents, and a task force and say, yes, this budget has to be cut. This government has to be reduced.
[00:23:25] Here's a much more humane, alternative I think that could revive this instead of complaining.
[00:23:33] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know, you, you bring, you bring up an interesting point on many levels. One that jumped out at me is, you know, here I'm talking about the, we're talking about the division of this nation, to the point of, of talking about secession. And we're looking at age and race. But you know, the other demographic that's, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is, [00:24:00] those who work for the federal bureaucracy or those whose businesses are dependent on the federal, bureaucracy versus everyone else.
[00:24:09] John Zogby: Yeah.
[00:24:09] Jeremy Zogby: And so it, it, it, you know, if we could have weaved that into our survey to get that demographic to see this question, I think it would be even more revealing. But, I. is something obviously what we're gonna continue to, to look at in our polling. And, this, the, this is the trend. This is a trend to follow.
[00:24:33] so we'll, we'll, we'll have more data.
[00:24:35] John Zogby: Okay. Absolutely. And so as we sign off, I will remind you once again of my book about how to read polling. Obviously Jeremy and I spend an awful lot of our time doing that, but fascinating story and my book tells some stories about the importance of polling and and what it tells us. secondly [00:25:00] is the contact.
[00:25:00] If you need our services, then be sure to contact us and also be sure to give us a review of our conversation as some of you have, from week to week. And so I thank you and I'm signing off j.
[00:25:16] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. for those who are watching, you're gonna see the screen pop up, how you can get in touch with us. For those who are listening, we encourage you to go to our site, john zogby strategies.com. hit the contact button. you'll find our emails, or if you want to see what we have to say on X or YouTube or Spotify or SoundCloud, can find us there.
[00:25:40] You can find this podcast there. but specifically to get our expert, expert, take, reach out, going to our website, john zogby strategies.com, and look for the emails.
[00:25:53] John Zogby: Have a good week.
[00:25:55] Jeremy Zogby: Have a great week.[00:26:00]