[00:00:00]
[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: To understand how people think, all you have to do is ask the right questions.
[00:00:04] when people want to own precious metals, they're fearful of, of the environment.
[00:00:11] John Zogby: There's a rage that's out there, and it's not playing well in favor of the administration, until they see a Democratic alternative future could look bright for Republicans.
[00:00:23] Jeremy Zogby: they're important because they came in to vote for the first time.
[00:00:26] they're younger, they tend to be not white, and they don't have a college degree, and something tells me they make up a bulk of this new media cohort.
[00:00:43] John Zogby: It's Friday, March 14th and this is another edition of real polling and real time with Zogby. And we got a couple of Zogby here. I'm John. Hey Jer.
[00:00:54] Jeremy Zogby: I am Jeremy. How you doing?
[00:00:56] John Zogby: I'm okay and And I trust you're okay 'cause I just asked [00:01:00] you a little while ago. So, in the interest of sure that we stay informed and that our listeners, viewers stay informed, have fresh polling. And what we wanna look at today is, a critical group, for Donald Trump, one that he won, rather surprisingly, I guess, first time voters. back in November, we've been tracking time voters because as the title of the podcast, uh, they're really going to be either the canary in the coal mine or the group that keeps its support for Donald Trump.
[00:01:47] So, by way of context, we're gonna look at, profile in some detail of first time voters and who they are and where they stand. Take a look at some of the [00:02:00] other attitudes that, that they bring to the table. but for now, let's just say that our overall polling is right with the national average. National average is that President Trump and his first 50 plus days or so is tied by way of, approval. 48% disapproval, 48%. Ours is 49. Approval, 48 disapproval the same thing. However, while there really hasn't been any movement in the recent controversies, in the last week or so about the approval disapproval for Donald Trump, there's been a lot going on. by way of context, we have protests. scores of, Tesla dealers nationwide, we have a stock market [00:03:00] correction or very close, to correction. We have talk of recession, which we haven't had in a long time, and talk of that recession by none other than the president of the United States. And so. That in itself is highly impactful. Consumer confidence is way down. And we have angry, veterans and folks who, been let go of work, and then judges have ordered that they are called back to work. So amidst everything, there's a lot of confusion, but president's approval and disapproval numbers have remained the same. What about these first time voters who voted for President Trump in 2024 Jer? You are the master of the recent poll that we have done. Who are they and, and where do they stack up and let's say, how [00:04:00] do they compare with the populace, the electorate overall?
[00:04:05] Jeremy Zogby: Well, I first, first off, you the master calling me a master. That, that's pretty nice. I'm not gonna have that go unnoticed, but, I learned from you and so you gotta look at what a lot of other pollsters aren't looking at. That's what you taught me. But something to, to, to, to just build on a little bit.
[00:04:27] Why, you know, we, we, we've talked about, with our, our new polling over the past few podcasts, we talked about the youth vote, the, the, the demographic of the legacy media and the new media and some other interesting cohorts, in terms of getting an idea of how people live in different realities beyond just Democrat, republican, liberal, conservative.
[00:04:55] And understanding, the Trump juggernaut MAGA [00:05:00] 2.0 MAGA beyond 2016 maga. But as you've mentioned, and, and we've uncovered in the data, those who came out in droves for the first time to vote in November is staggering in terms of the data, to make the case. As you suggested, canary in the coal mine.
[00:05:21] When I look at this data and after you hear this data. I would like to know, we would like to know, whether we're correct, that our sense is Trump's success or his failure with this administration may very well hinge on this group. They look like when, when we'll go over the data, they look like a bellwether group.
[00:05:45] they're important because they came in to vote for the first time. And what do they look like? 43% of them are from the south.
[00:05:52] John Zogby: Mm.
[00:05:52] Jeremy Zogby: from southern states. That's very interesting. that's well beyond the, the [00:06:00] share of voters from the south. When you look at voters in general, 68% of them are under 45.
[00:06:07] That may not be shocking, but the number is staggering. 73% of them don't have a college degree. 56% of them are not white. And they are slightly more conservative than the largest ideological cohort in this country, which is moderate. They're slightly more conservative than moderate. And so we see some really different demographics.
[00:06:36] They're younger, they tend to be not white, and they don't have a college degree, and something tells me they make up a bulk of this new media cohort. They. Follow podcasts, they follow social media. And as we know, the Trump team did very well in their strategy of reaching out, to that [00:07:00] cohort. So that is how, our November polls showed eight percentage points more of first time voters went to Trump.
[00:07:08] Now we're getting an idea of the ground game that Trump and his team had. So let's look at these first time voters. And then we'll just kind of intersperse, commentary for each data point. When we compare first time voters to the electorate in general on the key question, whether they're proud or ashamed of, president Trump, the, the, the general electorate that is all voters.
[00:07:35] 36% of them are proud, 45% are ashamed. But when we look at the first time, voters almost.
[00:07:42] John Zogby: is proud or ashamed that Donald Trump is president.
[00:07:45] Jeremy Zogby: Proud or ashamed that, that, Trump is president. So you, you have, about half, 45% of first time voters who are proud that he's president, and 38% who are ashamed again compared to [00:08:00] 36%, proud 45%. It's a 10 point difference. I'll, I'll do one more and then you, you chime in. overall job approval is, as you pointed out.
[00:08:11] Is, is tied among the general public, but when you drill down to first time voters, 59% of them approve, 36% of them disapprove. That is a world of, of a difference. I I, I'll let you, chime in.
[00:08:30] John Zogby: Yeah, you, you know, typically first time voters. Not always the exclusively the youngest voters, but first time voters, younger voters have been voting Democrat, even in elections Democrats have lost. and what screams at me in these numbers is the fact that, there is obviously, a [00:09:00] disillusionment. Here and that, Donald Trump has spoken that, disillusionment and that in fact, in the absence of a democratic alternative, a policy, a sense of of of claiming victory. Again, a sense that they can put this country right and not simply be the anti-Trump. That, first time voters, are gonna be around for a long time and until they see a democratic alternative future could look bright for Republicans.
[00:09:43] now there are a lot of caveats there. I just gave a, in the opener, a litany of things that are going wrong just in the last couple of weeks and reaching a crescendo. Right now as we're speaking, you know, last night at Tesla, [00:10:00] dealerships throughout the country, tires were slashed by protestors.
[00:10:06] There's a rage that's out there, and it's not playing well in favor of the administration, but do these first time voters see that there's an alternative?
[00:10:18] Jeremy Zogby: Hmm.
[00:10:19] John Zogby: That's the question. I think that this raises right now. President Trump at this moment claims, still claims these first time voters.
[00:10:30] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. And you know, just to go back to that profile because. So much of the Democratic strategy following Trump's first victory was to, to hit on that he was appealing to, to white working class and rural, voters who were insecure about immigration and who were concerned, about [00:11:00] economic, had economic anxiety and, and really drummed up the notion of white supremacy.
[00:11:07] And racism and, and look, this podcast isn't about debating that people have made up their minds. We, we don't care about, you know, which view you have. The point is, is clearly that strategy failed because 56% of these first time voters are not white. And so I. they, they weren't seeing that. So what, we'll, we'll explore a little bit later, maybe some ideas of what ultimately pushed them to Trump, but to, to, to drive the point home, why they're so pivotal.
[00:11:40] Let's look at probably the most controversial, thing going on right now, constantly in the news. And that's Doge. And I didn't wanna focus on Elon Musk. Because Musk is the face of Doge, I wanted to focus on just the notion in general of this department of governmental [00:12:00] efficiency and slashing and cuts.
[00:12:02] And I'll let let people, you know, decide themselves whether they want to attach that to Musk or not. But looking at the approval rating of Doge that is approved or disapprove, the general public are split down the middle, 46% approve of Doge. I, I like to call it doggy whatever. 46% disapprove. But when we drill down again to first time voters, it's 54% approve versus 37% who disapprove.
[00:12:33] And again, that is a staggering difference. So now I want to build the bridge to, in looking at the data, you know what some of the, a lot of the questions I asked, what really. Made them go for Trump. And, and I, I can't say that I have the silver bullet issue, although I, I think this is what it is. I do think it was the economy.
[00:12:58] I do think it was [00:13:00] inflation. on a, on a, on a a related side note, we're hearing a lot of discussion about gold, today. Gold for the first time, it, it, it, it, setting all new, new time record $3,000 an ounce. That's, that's way up from a year ago today. And so this poll, I asked voters about whether they had interest in, in owning precious metals and, this may shed some light on, on, on first time voters.
[00:13:35] And so, among the general public, 43% say that they have interest in, in owning precious metals like gold or silver. Among first time voters, 55% have an interest. And so that tells me, you know, when people want to own precious metals, they're fearful of, of the environment. And it, [00:14:00] it's, it's said to be the oldest store of value.
[00:14:02] It, it's, it's a hedge, it's a life insurance against chaos. And so we see this going mainstream and significantly more. Higher percentage of first time voters are interested in owning it versus the general public, which tells me they're seeking security, which tells me the reason why they were high on Trump on election day and all the way to now is they're looking for security.
[00:14:30] They're looking for economic security, and this is my closing statement, that this is why I think we think or you speak for yourself. That Trump's success or failure hinges on this group because this group came out in droves for him and they came out in droves for him looking for security. And it'll be interesting to see with all of this shaking out whether they still hang on in his corner or not.
[00:14:59] John Zogby: [00:15:00] We've seen fortunes change. Very popular presidents become very unpopular presidents. Joe Biden clearly. An example Barack Obama before him. clearly an example. And so we'll be watching, things do not portend at this moment to be going well for Donald Trump. And at some point the dam may burst and this group may, give up on him. But at this moment in time, I'm gonna go back to my original commentary. The burden is gonna be on Democrats. Because, the federal budget has. To there is an enormous amount of waste, inefficiencies, overspending too many employees. It has to be cut. And we've seen one way of cutting [00:16:00] that, is, a challenge that probably is gonna, I say, probably gonna backfire.
[00:16:06] And that is to, to take a meat ax and just chop, chop, chop. without any concern for impact, in fact, in a very heartless way, taking and short-term employees and form letters saying, your, performance was, was bad. But Democrats are gonna have to take ownership of this issue, and show that they care as much. reducing government spending and reducing this unsustainable debt and annual deficits that, are only being, worsened by continuing resolutions like the one that is passing as as we speak. And Democrats are gonna have to show [00:17:00] that. And preferably in a bipartisan way, that there is a way of eliminating lots of government waste in a humane sort of way that, cuts don't happen all at once, but happen over a period of time. Just as we've seen with companies in the private sector, when there are mass layoffs, there is severance pay and retraining community colleges and other educational institutions. But until the Democrats come forward with something like that, Trump will be a source of disillusionment to this group, but there won't be any alternative.
[00:17:49] And those are my closing statements.
[00:17:52] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. No, and I think we covered a lot. I think we gave a lot to our listeners and viewers to choose Chew on over the weekend. [00:18:00] And so, I mean, we'll just close by as always to get in touch with us to, visit our website, to, to see this video. To, to hear us on SoundCloud, Spotify, watch it on YouTube or go to our website, john zogby strategies.com.
[00:18:18] Hit the podcast button. If, you wanna get it delivered to your inbox, hit the contact button and you'll see, subscribe. And again, you know, if you're looking for our expertise, you know, we've just showcased how we're different from a lot of other polls. I'm actually gonna read a quote from you. I've got your plaque.
[00:18:37] I. On my wall from, when you were featured on Ink Magazine in the late nineties, and the quote says, to understand how people think, all you have to do is ask the right questions. And I think that's our signature. I think that's our brand, and I think that's how we provide analysis and data. And no other pollsters are, do, are doing.
[00:18:59] So [00:19:00] reach out if you want our expertise in our services.
[00:19:03] John Zogby: Okay, great. I have one final question for you. What if somebody out there wants to learn how to read polls and find out what's unique in them and what they're really saying, where would you recommend that they go?
[00:19:18] Jeremy Zogby: Well, there's a number of books, but in particular there's one that you just wrote that has that very title, how to Read Polls, beyond the Horse Race, how to Read Polls and Why They Matter. Barnes and noble.com, amazon.com, and I've read all your books and it's something that you can read in two days and you'll walk away a lot smarter.
[00:19:41] John Zogby: Thank you. alright. We'll see you folks next week unless there's breaking news. We'll see you tomorrow. Okay. Thanks. Take care.
[00:19:50] Jeremy Zogby: Take care. Have a great weekend.[00:20:00]