[00:00:00] John Zogby: And here we are, hundred days into his administration and he's losing the battle.
[00:00:07] Jeremy Zogby: last month independents went with Trump by six percentage points over Harris. Now trump has, lost or shedded 17 percentage points,
[00:00:19] John Zogby: let's start talking about 2028. We have some really interesting results
[00:00:24] Jeremy Zogby: trump Jr. Is getting 27%. JD Vance getting 25%, and then there's a massive drop off after that
[00:00:32] John Zogby: This is not only a classic battle that could potentially shape up, but it's also a renaissance for the Democratic Party
[00:00:44] Jeremy Zogby: To have that renaissance, they would truly have to go back to their principles.
[00:00:48]
[00:00:54] John Zogby: it's Tuesday. It's the 100th day of the second Trump [00:01:00] presidency. And this is a special edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. And we've got a couple of, very interesting topics to, to talk about. how are you doing, Jerry?
[00:01:12] Jeremy Zogby: Are, oh, I'm doing really well. we have some pretty, spectacular data.
[00:01:17] John Zogby: Yeah, we do. We're gonna recap the poll that, you released over the weekend, by way of, news release that we emailed to our list. but it's especially pertinent, not only because it's the 100th a day, which we're gonna talk about, but also because there. is a statement out by the president himself today blaming polls that show him, with the low approval rating and saying that they're fake polls, part of fake news agencies, and that the pollsters are sick. And when I asked you how you're feeling today, there was a very important, [00:02:00] issue behind that question. I'm feeling well. I don't feel sick at all. How do you feel?
[00:02:04] Jeremy Zogby: not only do I not feel sick, but I could go before the gatekeepers and expose all of the raw data and show just how. Honest and accurate. This poll is.
[00:02:14] John Zogby: So why don't we just jump right into it and we'll indicate that. In terms of approval rating, have the president upside down, 48% approve, disapproved. There's some movement downward on, on his part. but, the more importantly as you, wrote in your analysis, it's what's behind that, drop in approval.
[00:02:46] Why don't you get right into that?
[00:02:47] Jeremy Zogby: yeah. Let me just start off by saying that Trump should be careful because Rasmussen, which would be a Trump friendly poll, has Trump's approval disapproval at [00:03:00] negative five. So I believe Rasmussen has Trump 43 or 44% approve and, 48 or 49 disapproval and Rasmussen called the election.
[00:03:14] And he, Rasmussen obviously is, tends to be what we would call Republican leaning or Republican friendly. And so what we have is we have him, as you indicated, negative 2 48, approve. 50% disapprove. Others have him 39 40 approve. A lot of this has to do with methodology and waiting, and I'm not gonna get into those details, but, basically are these pollsters using the exit polls, as the, weighting model?
[00:03:48] and that's a whole other discussion, but without further,
[00:03:51] John Zogby: polls from last November?
[00:03:53] Jeremy Zogby: yeah, yeah, obviously.
[00:03:55] John Zogby: get too far into this, but I think it's important that, [00:04:00] that we are using a model based on those exit polls of, 35% of our samples, Republican, 31% is democrat, rest are independent, and we don't see any reason to adjust that,
[00:04:16] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:04:16] John Zogby: these days.
[00:04:18] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:04:18] John Zogby: go ahead. I'm
[00:04:19] Jeremy Zogby: Pretty significantly, 34% independent historic highs. But so what has happened, and here before I get into the numbers, the thick of it, the easiest way to understand is those independents who represented 34% of the electorate in November, outnumbering Democrats a first time in modern polling, as I understand, they have swung against the president just for historical context.
[00:04:47] The same thing happened with Biden in, after, towards the end of, Biden's first 100 days on election day in November, 2020. Independents went for Biden and then they had buyer's [00:05:00] remorse. We have a similar dynamic happening, I think, on even a larger scale than what happened with Biden. Biden was bleeding in independents, within the first a hundred days.
[00:05:10] So I'm not gonna get into, the totality of the numbers here, but. independents and, I'm gonna do the horse race, not the approval dis disapproval, but we match Trump up against Kamala Harris. I know it's a fictitious head to head, but I think it's, very telling. It tells us buyer's remorse and that's important.
[00:05:32] And last month independents went with Trump by six percentage points over Harris. Now they have fallen. Trump has, lost or shedded 17 percentage points, which means 11% of them have swung from that plus six. Trump had in a lead 11 swung [00:06:00] to Harris. Actually 17, swung to Harris. The same thing with voters in small cities.
[00:06:07] Now that's key because a lot of what's driving this disapproval and dissatisfaction. With Trump, and buyer's remorse is the economy. And, what we saw was a, stock market meltdown about a week ago where the Dow Jones had a massive collapse, losing over a thousand points, on the Dow. And so a lot of this goes back to, the tariff strategy and the uncertainty that it's causing and the anxiety and voters in small cities.
[00:06:43] Are gonna be the ones that feel this the most because small cities, they don't have the dynamism of say, big cities or even suburbs. So when we drill down to Trump's approval on handling, the economy, that's where we [00:07:00] really find it. And actually those numbers are, 44 approve, 51 disapprove. And on the trade.
[00:07:11] His policies would trade in tariffs. Only 40% approve and 56% disapprove. And a lot of that disapproval is coming from independents and voters in small cities. And I think the reasons for that are pretty obvious. But before I go too far, why don't you weigh in.
[00:07:32] John Zogby: hundredth day is significant because it marks, the end of the honeymoon period during the honeymoon period. Traditionally what presidents do is they build upon their victory base. Trump won just under 50% of the popular vote, and this is when. Presidents move to the center and try to sweep up, [00:08:00] moderate, independent voters to build what we call a governing majority. That's how things used to work. changed under George W. Bush and then Barack Obama when the appeal was much to the hardcore base as you can possibly get. what Trump. is doing and has done is appeal vigorously to that base and, in many ways either ignore or alienate independents. And it is showing,
[00:08:36] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:08:37] John Zogby: at a very important point. In his administration. He's only been in three months. This is when there were supposed to be major legislative accomplishments. This is where he was supposed to, advantage of the quote mandate that he received and issue executive orders that would hold and be [00:09:00] popular. And neither of that's happened. No major pieces of legislation. in fact, a budget passed that is. the exact opposite of what he had promised. Increase in spending while he is trying to cut government. And then finally, in terms of, mandates. Those mandates are being challenged by courts and then leading into constitutional issues or confrontations, or simple disobedience of courts.
[00:09:34] And here we are, hundred days into his administration and he's losing the battle. Now, can he turn it around? I don't know. He seems to end up on the winning side, but right now, that doesn't appear to be the case.
[00:09:50] Jeremy Zogby: I, and I actually wanted to address that and that was a perfect segue that I do think he can turn it around because as [00:10:00] we've shown. That. And, by the way, folks should go to john zogby strategies.com and go to the news button and click on insights, or rather the insights button. And click on news and look at the article.
[00:10:13] Trump's dropping numbers. It's the one that we're talking about. And you can see all these key demographics that, are moving away from Trump and the analysis on why. But what I didn't want to touch on in the article was how he could turn it around because. I don't think that's necessarily our job to, to put out that information in the articles, but because you brought up the topic, I, think that it is very possible and I think it's really just gonna come down to IRS reform.
[00:10:46] And of course, he, has been talking about cutting income tax, and he's been talking about maybe getting rid of it altogether for certain income groups. I don't know what the threshold is. I do seem to believe [00:11:00] I, I would make a strong case if Trump were to do that. I do think independents, a large portion of them would swing back because nobody wants financial and economic anxiety this early on into an administration, and that could be some good damage control if he were to accomplish that.
[00:11:21] John Zogby: disagree, before we, move on. And that is that voters, he won those battleground states and voters may have been, making a strike, at at disruption. and can and chaos. But at this moment in time, they're getting confusion and chaos. And in that sense, I don't know how he wins it back.
[00:11:53] Now, I may be dead wrong on this, but I don't know, once he has lost that and lost [00:12:00] perhaps even the trust that some voters, a majority of voters placed in him, trust is a very hard thing to get back, but. It is hard to believe, but in just under three years, voters are gonna be voting in Iowa and in New Hampshire, aren't they?
[00:12:20] And so it behooves us to, let's start talking about 2028. We have some really interesting results from our poll. what do you wanna do first, the Republicans or for 2028 or the Dems?
[00:12:34] Jeremy Zogby: We included in the mix, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, Bernie Sanders. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a OC, Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker.
[00:12:48] I think that's a pretty solid list. I think that's pretty accurate of the whispering and the buzz in the media and. Two quick observations. Bernie [00:13:00] is in the lead with 20%, not by too much because Pete Buttigieg trails, Bernie only by three percentage points. Pete Buttigieg comes in at 17%. That's well within the margin of error.
[00:13:14] Bernie the favorite. Pete Buttigieg a close second favorite. But the next observation in the data is that of these seven candidates. Five of them are in double digit territory, which means they're all within striking distance of each other. And I think the Bernie phenomenon makes sense. He, he goes back to 2016 and 2020 with wild success.
[00:13:41] he has the most, respect, I think, and, credibility in terms of running a really good, democratic primary, but the age issue. I think points to the fact that he'll probably phase out. And so who arrives on [00:14:00] the scene after that is up for grabs. Why don't you, tell me what you think.
[00:14:05] John Zogby: Yeah. and I will say we did not include Kamala Harris's, name. And that's something, that is debatable at this point in time. Her focus does appear to be on running for governor, to replace, Gavin Newsom. But I think what's interesting here is, as you say, there are five candidates in, digits. And, some impressive showings. Obviously at this point in time, the winner, quote unquote, is the one with the greatest name recognition. And you have to say that's Sanders. And it's also the fact that Sanders has strong support among a very powerful block of Democrats. And that is, of course, the progressive wing. If you add Sanders and a OC together here, they're barnstorming throughout. [00:15:00] The country and you have 33% just from those two. That's how powerful their personalities are. That's how powerful the progressive wing is. I think from there, what really intrigues me though is both Pete Buttigieg and Corey Booker Buttigieg doing particularly well among white. and among moderate voters, perhaps inheriting the mantle the establishment wing of the party, the moderate, wing of the party. And I think he's someone very much to pay close attention to. It's also a way for the party to, maybe. Once and for all get out of the racial balance, gender balance, and just claim to go for the best possible candidate. But at the same time, the man who [00:16:00] does very well among the whites and moderates, is Cory Booker. who adds to that, a pretty strong showing among black voters and Hispanic voters. And I'm starting to see things getting very, interesting here. If this in fact the primary field, on one hand look for a OC. Who'll be about 38 or 39 at that point in time. We show her in polls, doing particularly well among voters under 44. That of course, meaning, millennials and Gen Z, she drops off dramatically once you get to voters over 45. and Pete Buttigieg, who does well among voters over 45. does very well among white voters [00:17:00] as well.
[00:17:00] This is not only a classic battle that could potentially shape up, but it's also a renaissance for the Democratic Party if number one, they win, control of at least the House of Representatives. In 2026, and also they use the primaries as the debate that they so sorely need because right now they are, just floating out at sea no direction whatsoever.
[00:17:39] Jeremy Zogby: I think it's gonna take more than a Renaissance because the it, unless they get their party platform and issue straight, which would, which honestly, which were abysmal in 2024. what we're gonna see in the midterms if they are to win, I think likely would just be a rebellion against Republicans.
[00:17:59] And [00:18:00] To have that renaissance, they would truly have to go back to their principles. but to, to just one thing before we move on to the Republican playing field is to break out those, Democrats and those independents who would vote in the Democratic primary. And looking at Democrats, there's a slim lead, among Pete Buttigieg, 18 percentage points, Bernie Sander 17.
[00:18:29] And, it's still, you still have two or three others who were in double digits among, true Democrats. But among the independents who would vote in the Democratic primary, Bernie's lead over, Pete Buttigieg grows to almost 10 percentage points. And as, always, my, maxim, my rule of thumb is look to the independents right now.
[00:18:54] Bernie is, is, leading the Pac 24, Pete Buttigieg at 16, [00:19:00] but we've got a long way to go. why don't I just, quickly, because this one's easy. We don't have, as much of a, as a, competitive race here, among the Republican playing field. But, without further ado, Donald Trump, Jr. is in the pack.
[00:19:23] JD Vance, Marco Rubio. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. A assuming he would, he has gone Republican, although we don't know what's gonna happen with that. Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis and Christie, no, these are the people that are constantly in the news on the Republican side. And so today, if the Republican primary were held, Donald Trump, Jr.
[00:19:51] Would inch out. JD Vance, Trump Jr. Is getting 27%. JD Vance getting 25%, and [00:20:00] then there's a massive drop off after that with, a dis, a very distant third place. Ron DeSantis at 11. I quickly am gonna go to independents and I see, JD Vance is the favorite. the clear favor among the independents who would vote in the Republican primary getting 22%, followed by Ron DeSantis getting 13 and then Trump Junior getting 11.
[00:20:27] So that's an interesting dynamic.
[00:20:29] John Zogby: Yeah, it is. This reminds me of 1999. In 2000 where our polling was showing new governor of Texas, he wasn't so new, George W. Bush leading the pack. And that a considerable number of double digits of those, primary voters who were, are identifying with George W. Bush we're confusing him. With his father, but it was enough to propel him [00:21:00] and to generate buzz so that by, by the time people were voting, the, Bush 41 still had enormous amount of political capital. Bush 43 is what he would become, was a popular governor of Texas. But here we go with Trump, Jr. I think a placeholder. For Donald Trump, but I'm particularly struck at the 35% figure that he posts among Republicans, not independents, but among Republicans, followed then by JD Vance, 25% overall and 30% among Republicans. That's something for a sitting vice president with all the ink airtime that JD Vance is getting to still. Be in a second place or in a close showing with Donald Trump Jr. Now, will any of this materialize? We don't know. [00:22:00] we're just taking a barometric reading, from these numbers. the one thing that does intrigue me is less the Ron DeSantis at 11 more the Vik Ramis Swami at five if Ramis Swami as expected. Wins the governorship of Ohio, next year. Then he's immediately propelled into the position of governor, of still what everybody refers to, even though it's, redder these days than it's ever been before. But governor of an important, state with a lot of electoral votes and the platform right there. and so I think in many ways, be, besides Trump, and Vance, Swami is the man to watch from this early polling.
[00:22:57] Jeremy Zogby: All right. that does it on my [00:23:00] end. I think we covered quite a bit in 20 minutes. I'm still gonna remind folks to check out that analysis on our website, john zobe strategies.com, to go to the insights button and look at the news. also this podcast, I think we beat all the other firms to it.
[00:23:17] I don't think anybody else has, talked about in the public domain. The playing field of the Democratic and the Republican parties. looking forward to 2028, but that's just the nature of, politics, elections, and campaigns. that's how it is. So please share this podcast and show others the numbers and, show them the, great analysis that you can get in 20 minutes.
[00:23:43] John Zogby: And remember, we are not sick. number two, we would be sick if we were talking about the 32 Here you get as usual, mod moderation, adult conversation. Have a good week.
[00:23:57] Jeremy Zogby: Have a good week.
[00:23:58]