[00:00:00] Jermey Zogby: The Democratic party leaders seem to underestimate populism.
[00:00:05] You've got Bernie Sanders and AOC and David Hogg who are, they're running more against the establishment Democrats so much than they are, Maga.
[00:00:17] John Zogby: Bernie has been loyal and faithful to the party, but is this the face of the Democratic Party in 2028?
[00:00:33] It's Friday and it's actually good Friday. And, welcome to our podcast, real polling in real time with Zogby. I'm John Zogby. And I'm here with Jeremy. how are you?
[00:00:46] Jermey Zogby: Hey, happy good Friday, and I'm looking forward to the weekend. I'm doing pretty well. How about
[00:00:51] John Zogby: Yeah. And, I'm looking forward actually to this conversation because, remember the term feel, the Bern,
[00:00:59] Jermey Zogby: Oh
[00:00:59] [00:01:00] yeah.
[00:01:00] John Zogby: coined by the Bernie Sanders campaign and Americans, Democrats were feeling it for a while and now he's back. And he's pulling in huge crowds, at a moment when you could say otherwise.
[00:01:16] The Democratic Party is in a funk everywhere, national, state, and local. But here's Bernie going out to Idaho. 12,000 people, 20,000 people of Salt Lake City, 35, 40,000 in Los Angeles. He's accompanied in almost every instance by, AlexandriAOCasio-Cortez, known as AOC, and, they're really riling up the fans are Americans feeling the Bern.
[00:01:52] is this a temporary thing, a passing fancy, or do you think it has legs?
[00:01:57] Jermey Zogby: I think those are [00:02:00] excellent questions. Shall we dive into it?
[00:02:02] John Zogby: Yeah, let's do it. Okay.
[00:02:04] Jermey Zogby: all right, so I'll give my take on it and then, to you. And then actually we have some data on Bernie Sanders. so I definitely go back to a theme, the theme of populism. said this numerous times on the podcast. I think people, sometimes. Underestimate. I'm gonna say party leaders I'm gonna be more specific. The Democratic party leaders seem to underestimate populism. we saw that in, in the Trump victories, and we saw that with, rise of Bernie Sanders two times in 2016 and 2020. He appeared to be an unstoppable force.
[00:02:59] I [00:03:00] remember when I was, when the whole Bernie thing became viral, I was a part-time professor at a local art college. it's funny, you see how teenagers and college students, day they're not talking about something and then all of a sudden they are talking about something and you can tell that they caught the bug. And it, it almost happens like immediately. And so the kids in my class came in and all of a sudden the students were talking about corporate PACS and Super pacs. And to me that was funny. I never heard teenagers talk like that and they really had to Bern. that's just a testament the appeal of populism.
[00:03:48] And if there's anybody who has that down more than Donald Trump. Sanders, still utilizing this form of politics and [00:04:00] weaving it into speeches and policy and a vision, and he's still wildly successful. So you asked a question, does it have legs? yes and no. It has legs so much that James Carville on a News Nation with Chris Cuomo and declared. That the party should actually just split in two. I don't know if he said that out of frustration or really meant that, but effectively he said, you've got Bernie Sanders and AOC and David Hogg who are, they're trying to, they're running more against the establishment Democrats so much than they are, Maga. That James Carville said very frustratingly, just go out and form a another party. Call it the urbanist party, the socialist party. I actually think that could happen because where does the Democratic party go from here? And so I think it has legs in that sense. [00:05:00] The big question is this, can Bernie do a third run? I don't know. Maybe he can. if he can't. I don't think AOC is ready, and so I'd like you to, respond to that or see
[00:05:19] John Zogby: the main question does this movement, and do these rallies? Does, it all have legs? The short answer is yes, of course it does. number one, there's been a strong. Progressive movement within the Democratic Party since 1968, and in fact, so strong that it's represented about half above the party faithful and the party activists and have been very competitive in primaries.
[00:05:53] Presidential primaries in particular. So yes, this is a resurgence of the [00:06:00] progressive left Democratic party, it's most familiar face. Is Bernie and Bernie's healthy? does this mean another run for president? No. And it can't, it would automatically trigger the age issue and that burned. The Democratic Party, very badly in 2024.
[00:06:24] So it doesn't mean a presidential run, nor do I believe it does or should mean a presidential run for a OC. it's, look, it's possible. Barack Obama at the convention four years before he accepted the nomination, the 2004 convention, he was still a state senator. from, from Illinois and, four years later he's, he's accepting the nomination in AOCs case, a poll out.
[00:06:58] recently showed [00:07:00] her, beating Chuck Schumer, the majority leader in longtime US Senator Congressman, from New York by 12 points in a New York Democratic primary. That's the route that she. Should take. that's, I think, a possibly winning group and helpful to redefining the Democratic party.
[00:07:27] Thirdly, this movement has legs because otherwise democratic party is in terrible funk. there was a sense that they're not gonna play with Trump this time. The way they did the last time, which was coming right out of the chute with serious criticism and moves to impeach Trump. They were gonna give him a honeymoon period.
[00:07:51] sadly, for them, that honeymoon period has turned out to be a nightmare. For the Democrats as we see the President [00:08:00] running roughshod over, civil rights running roughshod over, due process running roughshod. Over eliminating, necessary jobs and so on. And where are the Democrats? So at this point in time, Bernie and a OC and those rallies are at least, fomenting some positive, feelings, among Democrats.
[00:08:28] where does it go from here? I really is anybody's guess. I suspect, Bernie has really never lost his popularity. He's been a loyal Democrat. Sometimes in the past, the progressive candidate has backed off and not endorsed the more establishment Democrat who's won the primary. Bernie has been loyal and faithful to the party, but is this the face of the Democratic Party in [00:09:00] 2028?
[00:09:02] Not as a nominee, but certainly as the, generator of any kind of enthusiasm.
[00:09:10] Jermey Zogby: yeah, I think we're by and large in agreement that isn't going anywhere and that it has legs. Obviously Bernie doesn't have much of a future as, the nominee for 2028. but my question remains, who, a as he breeds fire and back into the Democratic party, who then takes over that?
[00:09:41] I don't think we know. So that's issue that's the democratic party still faces. And then I do have to go back to, Carville's comments that I saw this morning. I think that's something we could have, explore. as things move forward. But in the [00:10:00] meantime, we have, poll polling data from our latest poll. what I have here, as you can see, is, pretty powerful. first, rule of thumb for our listeners is when we look at, public officials. We measure their favorability and their unfavorability. Anybody who's not underwater that is, has more, a higher percentage of unfavorable than favorable.
[00:10:38] Anybody who's not underwater, that's pretty good because the standard is most people are underwater. So I'm zeroing in here. And overall voters, 45% rate. Bernie favorably, Versus 45% who rate him unfavorably. And so he's even, [00:11:00] so I obviously we're gonna go next to political parties and see how that plays out. obviously the Democrats are gonna be higher, but to what extent, 80% Democrats are favorable. of Bernie Sanders or towards Bernie Sanders. And the lion's share of that is, is a, a very favorable rating over somewhat, favorable. independents are key, as always, 40% of independence rate him favorably. And, when we look on the flip side, of those who rate him unfavorably among independent voters, it's. 45% who rate him unfavorably. So he's about even, among independent voters. I think the next thing I wanna look to are the youth. 'cause that's usually [00:12:00] the driver of, his, his feeling, the Bern. And what we have here is 52% of, under 30. him favorable. And then the last thing I'm gonna do, and then I'm gonna turn it over to you to look at the cross tabs. wanna see locationally, is, where are people feeling the Bern the most? And I have a I think I know where that is. so we're gonna go here to location. We're gonna look at Urbans and suburbanites. Those who are rural, of course, those who are rural, they're not feeling the Bern so much. You've got, 50% who rate him unfavorably. But when I look at large cities, got a 59% favorable rating. so it's in the urban centers that you're gonna find that [00:13:00] movement most intense.
[00:13:03] John Zogby: So I think what the Democrats need to know. Is not so much Bernie as a stalking horse, but Bernie as a representation of the heart and soul of the party, what's behind these big crowds? If the big crowds are gonna be, the same old, elite, then the party's in trouble. But if we look around at these crowds and look at the numbers and we see working, I.
[00:13:39] Voters, middle income voters gains among white voters, for that matter, reestablishing the higher percentage of support among Hispanics and among, blacks. Then what we're seeing is a party that can [00:14:00] mend itself. But if Bernie is gonna post, the same kinds of numbers, in terms of favorability and unfavorability as say Kamala Harris or Joe Biden towards the, end of his, his tenure, then it's just gonna be same old, So what are you showing in some of those categories? Let's start with middle income,
[00:14:32] Jermey Zogby: As far as middle income.
[00:14:34] Among the middle income earners, it's less than half. it's 46. It's split and, 46 have a favorable view. and 44% have an unfavorable view. I want to go to whites 'cause it, that's obviously That's about 70% of the electorate. you look down here it's 40% [00:15:00] favorable.
[00:15:00] John Zogby: What's unfavorable?
[00:15:02] Jermey Zogby: the unfavorable is, 47, so he's under water.
[00:15:06] John Zogby: He is underwater. and you know what, those are not good numbers. for the party. Not that they're gonna win among whites, but he's gotta do better than a Democrat's gonna have to do better than 40%.
[00:15:23] Jermey Zogby: to your point on, Hispanic voters, he's got 51%.
[00:15:28] John Zogby: That's an improvement.
[00:15:30] Jermey Zogby: to 39% on favorability, which is really good. but I think this one is telling here, I think actually this is a, maybe, a bellwether the union vote.
[00:15:45] John Zogby: Better.
[00:15:46] Jermey Zogby: he doesn't even have, he's got 50%, favorability among the union vote. I would expect that to be a little bit higher.
[00:15:57] John Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. [00:16:00] yeah. remembering we still have emblazoned in our mind that the union vote is blue collar, when the reality is most of it overwhelmingly are public employees. and, public employees usually tended to be, on the liberal side, on the democratic side, and finally about blacks. I think that's gonna be important.
[00:16:29] Jermey Zogby: Okay. among black voters, oh, okay. Bernie's got 68% favorability.
[00:16:43] John Zogby: Alright.
[00:16:43] Jermey Zogby: huge.
[00:16:44] John Zogby: Yeah, it is Unfavorability.
[00:16:47] Jermey Zogby: 19%
[00:16:50] John Zogby: Okay, so that's a considerable, IM improvement. Okay. So Bernie's got legs. These [00:17:00] rallies are helpful to the party, but they still need a body of ideas to represent how they would govern. And right now I think they're still bankrupt on that. the Republican Revolution, that new Gingrich, raised in, 1994 was based on a contract with America, a body of principles.
[00:17:26] Democrats are gonna have to do that.
[00:17:29] maybe that's what we'll talk about, in, the future.
[00:17:32] Jermey Zogby: Yeah. I'll just part by saying I think that this is, a good weekend for Democrats to reflect on how they can resurrect their party. and, other than that, I would just say. Enjoy the holiday, and, we'll see you next week. Don't forget to, to spread the word this podcast. It's on multiple [00:18:00] platforms.
[00:18:00] It's on SoundCloud, it's on Spotify, it's on YouTube. could always just go to the website, john zogby strategies.com, get it delivered directly to your email inbox by clicking on the contact button and. There's a prompt, button for putting in your email and then we'll send it right over automatically. Check us out on x zogby strategies and if you wanna write to us about anything you heard, anything, any questions you have, I'm jeremy@johnzogbystrategies.com. And you are of course, john@johnstrategies.com. And otherwise, we'll see you next week with some, Newer data. Actually we should have some, of, our latest poll.
[00:18:47] John Zogby: Okay, great. happy holidays everyone. Bye-bye.[00:19:00]