John Zogby: [00:00:00] from my point of view, the president's not. Doing anything right. the very least, he's not achieving much of his plan.
There's a lot about this that I just defies reason. and yet, Trump now is in, is very competitive among Hispanics.
Jeremy Zogby: When we put, Trump up against Bernie Sanders, I th I think that's most interesting for now because that's populism on the right versus populism on the left.
overall democratic party platform just doesn't have anything better other than look at what wild thing Trump did or said today,
John Zogby: It's Friday, and that means it's another edition of real polling in real Time with Zogby. us. I'm John Zogby, and I'm with my son managing partner Jeremy Zogby. How you doing [00:01:00] this week? I.
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I am doing well. How about you?
John Zogby: I am doing well, and the president's doing well too. it's funny because, time I think for a reality check,
for the pulse of what's going on. Because from my point of view, and I'm coming somewhat from the left, but from my point of view, the president's not. Doing anything right. the very least, he's not achieving much of his plan. He's doing deportations. Some of them are getting blocked by courts reinforced. Not all of them, but some of them. he, his tariff policy is a disaster. There's a lot of confusion and a court just struck down his authority. do global tariffs, although within a few hours another court backed him up on that. [00:02:00] There's an awful lot of confusion. He's using his powers, frequently to pardon prisoners, some of which leave your head scratching.
A, a Chicago murderer gang member running a drug trade from prison. Full pardon? The chrisleys, whatever it is that they do. I've seen a minute of it and that was a minute too much. But released as well in Sure. one hand, it doesn't appear like he's achieving or achieving anything good. On the other hand, we have a brand new poll out, which we're gonna be talking about in detail, but a brand new poll that shows that he's not really slipping at all, and that when he's matched against some of the leading Democrats and possible contenders in 2028, president, either. Matches [00:03:00] them or is slightly ahead. So what do you think is going on here?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I, think. What it is, the electorate is they're going to all different kinds of, channels and sources for their media and information. And that's no surprise. But it, when we break it down demographically into three distinct media cohorts and we have, local media that the voters who primarily trust local media.
versus legacy media, which are national newspapers and, national networks and, their online platforms versus new media, which is social media and podcasts. And so when you, break it down that way, it makes a lot more sense. Legacy media. Trump can't do anything, right? He can't say anything, right?
He's failing every day. Local [00:04:00] media about split, but a little bit more in favor of Trump. And then new media, podcasts and, x and, other social media sites. Trump is, way ahead. And so it depends how you're discerning your events, the narratives of, the daily and weekly events. But when we put it all together, and I think the real cohorts that, that I'm gonna look at are, always gonna be the independent voters.
Where do they stand? Men and women, because those are two different realities. And then, Hispanic voters are looking very much like a, bellwether group. So through those lens, let's look at those, those head-to-head matchups of, Trump versus key Democrats.
John Zogby: Okay, some of the groups that you mentioned. one poll, a u gov poll [00:05:00] showed that Trump was losing his edge. among young men, we don't find that at all. We don't find him, losing that slight edge that he had among Hispanic voters either. In fact, what we found in his approval rating in this poll, I. Pretty much matches what the vote Hispanic vote was back in November. So we're right back to where we were. I, for one, think it says an awful lot about the Democrats
and where independents are, and Democrats not being able to make much headway among Independents. But do you wanna share some numbers?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I wanna share some numbers and then I want to touch, on that too. 'cause I think the other driving factor is. the, state of the Democratic party and their playing field. when we put, Trump up against Bernie Sanders, I th I think that's most interesting for now [00:06:00] because that's populism on the right versus populism on the left.
And we do have a tight race here, of, of 45.6% of the public. the voters opting for President Trump if the election were held today versus four, 45.1. And it's a virtual tie, but we, we'll say that there's a slight edge of, five survey participants. But, when we look to independence, this is revealing about where independence could go.
41% of them, go with Bernie. 38% of them go with Trump. And that's significant because we see on the one hand a split among the independent vote, but a preference still for a populist figure. just one different than Trump. Let's [00:07:00] hold that thought because when we go to the next two head to heads, we'll, compare those independents.
but let's look at, before we do that, let's look at men and women. men, clearly 51% for Trump. 40%. for Sanders, it's key that, Trump gets, a majority, with women, Sanders gets, just barely 50% and Trump gets, 40%. So we see the gender gap as strong.
then, the last, of, the cohorts we'll look at in this head-to-head is Hispanics, 46% of Hispanics for Trump, 44 for, for Sanders.
and I think on the face that's, that kind of proves the Hispanic vote as a key and swing vote.
John Zogby: [00:08:00] Yeah, it really is. And, just by way of a comment about Hispanics, of the things that I find very puzzling. Is the president issuing deportation orders backed by the United States Supreme Court against Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans all living here legally and all mainly gained, and gainful employment. What's ironic about that is that these are from communist countries or socialist countries, anyway, They are fundamentally conservative and when they do become naturalized US citizens, they have been voting overwhelmingly Republican. And so I'm very puzzled at the deportation order among them, especially since they are living here legally.
And, those who support [00:09:00] their staying are doing so for business and community purposes, saying that they, they're the, they are mainstays in the agricultural, and, in other, construction and so on. And so there's a lot about this that I just defies reason. and yet, Trump now is in, is very competitive among Hispanics.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. I'm tempted to, to want to respond to that, but I don't want to get off track here. clearly, Democrats broke the stronghold they had on Hispanics. and Republicans have made strong inroads on the issue of immigration, with a focus on the border and security and, also combining crime into that.
But clearly we [00:10:00] see that division among the Hispanic vote. but here, speaking of the Hispanic vote, here's what happened. Here's another name that has, Caught a lot of attention over the last couple months is, a OC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And so we put Trump up against, a OC and a head-to-head that the election were held today.
which candidates would the voters vote for? And overall, 47% went with Trump, versus 43. with Cortez, I'd say a comfortable lead, 10% undecided. I want to go straight to the independent vote, and then I want to go to the Hispanic vote. 42% of, independents preferring Trump versus 35 a clear edge for Donald Trump.
I think, independents there don't see a OC as [00:11:00] the equivalent or the equal to, Sanders. Sanders is. The brand of populism on the left and for the Democrats, a OCA rising star, but probably, this is my interpretation of the independent voters, probably couldn't hold their own against the President.
Let me go to Hispanics, on this race, and this is telling decisively Hispanic voters go for Trump, 49%, versus a OC 43.
John Zogby: Yeah, that's quite a, that's a four point margin. Of course, a lot of it has to do
Jeremy Zogby: Six point margin.
49 43.
John Zogby: Okay, I was looking at the wrong, chart here. but clearly, what's involved here also is that a OC is not as well known as Bernie Sanders, who's
nationally now [00:12:00] for, the better part of a, decade.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
John Zogby: nonetheless, you see where. a Democrat who's new has some catching up to do even among Hispanics who used to be in the bag for Democrats.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. we'll, do this last one and then we'll have our closing remarks here. But of course, we always revisit, November 24, Trump versus Harris. And so today, if the election were held again, here we are at the end of May. Where do voters stand? And we have, I'm gonna get precise with the, with decimals here.
47 perc, 47.7 for Trump, 45.1 a two and a half point lead, that Trump has. and then for independence, it's, it's a five point [00:13:00] lead, in favor of Trump. for Hispanics, it is, a five point lead in favor of Trump. So to go back to your point about the Democratic Party platform, I think you hit the nail on the head.
They're just not coming forth. And of course, it's still early in the cycle. We've only gotten past the first 100 days. Of the presidency and the presidency is still strong among voters on the issue of, of immigration, which is the number two issue. the economy is slipping, with the president, but overall democratic party platform just doesn't have anything better other than look at what wild thing Trump did or said today, which is mirrored by the media.
John Zogby: And [00:14:00] that's, gonna be troublesome because, in 2020 it was an enough to not be Donald Trump after one term. And it also helped that the Joe Biden, who ran in 2020 was a kind of a, compelling, steady kind of, of persona. But his presidency certainly, in the. Closing year and a half or so really helped to do the party in, the fact that he lied to the American people, but also the Democrats really are just bankrupt, with new ideas and are hopelessly split as well. but it is not going to be enough to simply not be Donald Trump. There's gonna have to be a proactive agenda that, voters across. The spectrum, can identify with, and that doesn't mean a choice between white, blue collar and, [00:15:00] academics and, progressives and so on. It's gonna have to mean healing and a binding agenda.
I don't see that coming just yet.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. but we do have more data, which we're going to release over the next several days, I think. I think what we're gonna do next week is we'll send out the overall approval
John Zogby: Uhhuh.
Jeremy Zogby: well as, on five or six areas of, of, the Trump presidency. And we'll have that, early next week. Otherwise, we're just gonna get this out over the weekend that this, latest edition.
John Zogby: Sounds good. Have a good week.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, you have a good weekend.
John Zogby: Alright, thanks.
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