[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: a slim margin of voters are just not ready to completely give up on him yet, in after a hundred days.
[00:00:08] John Zogby: we've talked last week about the rallies, Bernie Sanders AOC, but under this cloud confusion and chaos, Americans are still as ready to support Donald Trump they were last November.
[00:00:27] The campaign against oligarchy, the angry populism may feel good and do well with progressive voters, that's, not a platform I. To run on platform to run on is here's what we're gonna do, that's better. And it better not include building the deficit up again because Democrats will not win on that.
[00:00:52]
[00:00:58] John Zogby: Hi, it's [00:01:00] Friday and that means another edition of our podcast. Real polling in real time with Zogby. And here we are. I'm John Zogby. there's Jeremy Zogby.
[00:01:10] Jeremy Zogby: Hey, how you doing?
[00:01:12] John Zogby: I'm all right. I am. Okay. So what we're gonna talk about today has a lot more to do with why what. And so essentially, and I'll let you get into the numbers to whatever degree you wish to, but conceptually we do have more people who expect the stock market to be worse. President Trump expect their personal finances to be worse under President Trump. And yet when President Trump is matched against big name Democrats, from across the spectrum of Democrats, it's still tied. [00:02:00] It's still very close. and in fact, in several instances, Trump. leads. And so that's the question why, and I can speculate, but I, just want your thoughts first, and then I'll carry on with speculation.
[00:02:22] Jeremy Zogby: I'd rather hear your speculation.
[00:02:24] John Zogby: Okay. things are not good. president's job approval is bad, especially as we've noted many times coming at the end. his, a hundred days. That's when president's numbers generally go up. That's when they get a lot of things done. Although in the normal fashion, they get a lot of things done, passing legislation with the support of majority, not only of Congress, but support of the American people. There's a whole litany of issues here, all of [00:03:00] which lead at best to confusion. So whether one argues that whether what President Trump is doing is right is the good thing or bad, it's a terrible thing. The fact of the matter is that in just about every instance, either, struck down by the courts. As unconstitutional or illegal or, is to cease and desist, he comes back with refusal to obey the courts.
[00:03:36] there is a tremendous amount of confusion. it's, so very hard, to follow the saga of tariffs. And deportations, how many have actually been deported? you need a scorecard follow it on a day-to-day basis, because some deportations are temporarily held up as far as tariffs are [00:04:00] concerned. Draconian then not so bad, then bad. Then, then China. 25% to another, 25% to 145% to not so bad. what we do know are the numbers that we have, which is people are confused and it's near a majority, at least 50%, is a substantial plurality of people who expect to be doing worse, and the stock market to be doing worse and. essentially, I think what there is angst, confusion. Folks, that 74% who now live in this is not a Trumpian thing. This is just the way it is living from paycheck to paycheck. However, they don't know what's coming next. [00:05:00] The president is asking them the sacrifice from Mar-a-Lago. That's a tough thing to do when people are living paycheck to paycheck is to listen to somebody who brags about how well he's doing. And yet, with all of this confusion, there's no Democrat, well-known Democrat, that we've tested does better. And we've talked many times already about the state of the Democratic Party. Right now, the only. bounce that Democrats may get, and there's really no bounce. They're still polling the same that, that Kamala Harris polled.
[00:05:46] But the only reason they're, in the game because they're not Donald Trump and that the progressives at least now are coming out. And we've talked last week about the [00:06:00] rallies, Bernie Sanders AOC but under this cloud confusion and chaos, Americans are still as ready to support Donald Trump they were last November.
[00:06:16] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, you pointed out the fact that there's already a pessimistic backdrop that's gone back a while. it was there in the Biden administration. And it was, it really, the, a cloud pessimism as far as I can see, has been forming going back about 15 years. And I can go back to 2010 when it started to seem like the news cycle slowly but surely became more negative.
[00:06:47] The culture became more fascinated with doomsday type stuff. and so now you look at the dredge report and to me it's a, it's, It's, a [00:07:00] doom, it's a doomsday clown show, and it's been that way for over four years. and that's a very popular news site. they're getting probably over a hundred million clicks over a couple or a few months.
[00:07:15] and so you have that backdrop already coming in. the nation has always been divided, even though we can say that Trump swept all the swing states. Some staggering, fact of, 80 or 90% of counties he won. The fact is that in pretty much every place you go, geographic location, it was a narrow victory, a wide breadth of, victory across the board, albeit numerically narrow.
[00:07:48] And so we're still a divided nation, and so that division is there. But there are two extremely important points here. yes, we have seen, [00:08:00] bellwether groups like the independent voters in small cities, and then even some others like Hispanics, who were split on election day 50 went, 50% went with Harris, 50% went with Trump, and all of that has moved away from Trump in double digits, which is.
[00:08:21] pretty breathtaking. But let us not forget, a very similar phenomenon happened within the first a hundred days of Biden. So the expectations after win winning the presidency in a very hyperpolarized nation are high. But the reality is it's still the first 100 days. So yeah, these bellwether groups are tired of the uncertainty.
[00:08:48] But they know at the end of the day, it's only been a hundred days. And so I think the really, the big point here is this, the big point is that none of [00:09:00] this is linear. that's, to say that, that can show you in our poll that, Trump is minus 11 today with independent voters and that he's minus 11.
[00:09:14] With voters in small cities, and we can point to, as you mentioned, the data point that over 50% of Americans expect that their financial situation will be worse off, and that's higher when you look at independence in voters in small cities. But that doesn't necessarily mean the trend just goes like this from here, because it's only been a hundred days.
[00:09:39] We know with, this chaos of, the trade war on the trade war, pause, the trade war back on, ramped up, ramped down that there is still the potential to strike some kind of a deal. And that's still a very real chance within three months. [00:10:00] So I think it's a different story as we get closer to two years.
[00:10:04] You get past the midterms and then if there is a pessimism against the administration, it's pretty well set in. But at this point it is not fixed. There's, still a lot to be worked out with Ukraine. There's still a lot to be worked out with China. Yes, the stock market did plunge a thousand points.
[00:10:24] It could shoot back up a thousand points. We see this and so people are still just trying to hang on. But to your question, why. Because they're not ready. a, slim margin of voters are just not ready to completely give up on him yet, in after a hundred days.
[00:10:44] John Zogby: So it's being reported today that McDonald's sales are plummeting in the US, but they're also plummeting all over the world, and they're blaming. The global sales, [00:11:00] on strong anti-American sentiment. Now, the anti-American sentiment has always been there. it was clearly there, during the Iraq war. it was there. w with. our engagement with Israel in, Gaza. but it's particularly there now, McDonald's sites with the on the part of the Trump administration on tariffs and uncertainty so arguably there are a number of fronts, and clearly, The Democrats in particular, Joe Biden, did not do any favors to the Democrats. There's a, lot of lost credibility. We have aired that out, enormously, and the party hasn't found its heart and soul, I have to admit. [00:12:00] That the campaign against oligarchy, the angry populism may feel good and do well with progressive voters, but I don't see it. that's not a platform I. To run on platform to run on is here's what we're gonna do, that's better. And it better not include building the deficit up again because Democrats will not win on that.
[00:12:27] But with that said, one might even think. That even more Americans than that 50% would think that the stock market would slide. A lot of that's the cycle. A lot of that's the negativity that's raised, but we're just frozen in place no matter which way you look at it. And we've tested Trump.
[00:12:56] If the election were held today [00:13:00] election, and he still leads. Most of the Democrats or as tied with some of the biggest names among Democrats, and I don't know if that's an anomaly. I think we're explaining why. Maybe it isn't an anomaly, but just captures me as very strange.
[00:13:20] Jeremy Zogby: you have to imagine that in the vast bureaucracy that is the American government, yes, promises are always made in, leading up to November in an election cycle, and American voters never, we never quite learn from that, right? Because. Because we, we get burned every time and we get all these promises dished out to us that this is gonna happen on day one, and that's gonna happen on day one.
[00:13:54] And somewhere, I think deep down inside, we know that it's not, maybe we just like hearing it [00:14:00] and maybe we want to believe it, but with the reality of the leviathan of the three letter agencies, none of this stuff can be fixed on day one. Ukraine. the war, between Russia and Ukraine is, so deep and the wounds are so deep, and it really goes back to George HW Bush and the, encroachment of nato, which is a long standing trend.
[00:14:28] That's not something that just is resolved in a day. And, you look to the analogy of look at the movie, the Wolf of Wall Street and the party scenes in that movie. And really the sentiment is this party is so awesome. We don't ever want it to end. Keep the dope and keep the alcohol and the booze.
[00:14:51] Keep it rolling. But yet at some point. The party has to come to an end. And that's the analogy of the stock market. [00:15:00] And I think Americans realize that at some point there's gonna have to be a, correction, and that there's only so much the Federal Reserve can actually do to state that off. But what Trump has to do, and I think he's got about six months to a year, is he has to come up with a big win.
[00:15:18] And I, don't just mean like of the executive order type wins that. He flurried, through with the stroke of a pen in the first two weeks. something of great substance. And I'm estimating he's got about six months to a year to do that. And if he does, it could have the power to swing things back in his favor.
[00:15:41] John Zogby: Okay, I am gonna disagree, but we're jumping off a cliff here 'cause it's very hard to predict. I certainly can't predict what will happen in six months, but I'm doubtful. I'm, doubtful simply because I think the die is cast already. [00:16:00] He has created his image and his situation, by himself. He's more and more isolated. administration is, Right now, his approval ratings are very low. His greatest success so far is immigration, and yet his numbers of approval on immigration are down from where they had been. And I think when we correctly note how distrustful the American people are, Donald Trump now it was Joe Biden, but Donald Trump owns. This chaos and I think hard for me to see how he wins back trust, I don't know, and that's probably a good place for me to end.
[00:16:52] Jeremy Zogby: so you think it's so bad that even if, there, there's a hypothetical situation that. [00:17:00] Voters believe their lives are improved because of some kind of policy or because, some kind of, something that he enacts, whether it's legislation or, whatever kind of deal that, that if their lives were measurably improved, that they'd still go against him.
[00:17:24] And, I'm talking, they meaning the majority of the electorate.
[00:17:28] John Zogby: I guess I'm doubtful actually that kind of scenario can even happen.
[00:17:34] At this stage, at this pace
[00:17:36] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:17:37] John Zogby: the, with this mentality.
[00:17:39] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. And I'm not predicting right. 'cause I think I, I just wanna make clear that I'm saying if he can, but I understand where your skepticism is coming from and, I think, I think we've aired it out.
[00:17:55] John Zogby: Okay. despite all this, have a good [00:18:00] week.
[00:18:00] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, you too.
[00:18:02] John Zogby: I
[00:18:02] Jeremy Zogby: Spring. Spring is coming.
[00:18:04] John Zogby: Yeah, spring is coming and I hope you're doing better next week than you're doing today.
[00:18:09] Jeremy Zogby: I will
[00:18:10] John Zogby: Okay, me too. Take care.
[00:18:13] Jeremy Zogby: take care.
[00:18:15]