[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: I'll touch on, what's going on within MAGA and the Republican party first, and then to, pros and cons. Probably mostly cons, of, launching a strike on Iran
[00:00:13] John Zogby: Also is not just simply. The numbers, but the fact that we're seeing some significant cracks in the MAGA movement.
[00:00:22] I'm gonna suggest involvement, could be another one of these failed regime change. junkets,
[00:00:31] Jeremy Zogby: Netanyahu is crashing and burning politically, and unfortunately he's considering taking the rest of the world with him
[00:00:38]
[00:00:44] John Zogby: It's another Friday and that means it's another edition of Real Polling and Real Time with Zogby. As always, I'm John Zogby and I'm accompanied by my son Jeremy Zogby, the managing partner of our [00:01:00] firm. And gonna keep it short, but we have a lot to, to cover. How are you doing this week, j?
[00:01:07] Jeremy Zogby: I'm doing well, all things considered.
[00:01:11] before you get into it, I just want to highlight that we are going to field our, next, monthly survey,
[00:01:20] probably about Tuesday or Wednesday. So we'll have the most up-to-date data on the situation, between Iran and Israel and the United States potential involvement.
[00:01:35] and, we'll have gone through over a full week after that, whole situation blew up. And so we'll have some, we'll have fresh data on the topic.
[00:01:47] John Zogby: Okay. That's great to know. And of course, if anybody wants to participate in that poll, they should get directly in, in touch with you.
[00:01:55] Jeremy Zogby: Yes.
[00:01:56] John Zogby: So let's go with what we have and what we [00:02:00] have. in terms of real time is a u gov poll that they did on behalf of The Economist, in which it shows that 63% of, US adults, oppose the United States becoming involved in a military situation in Iran.
[00:02:22] That's how they put it. And what's stunning about that? a few things. First of all. on the lead up to the United States becoming involved in, Iraq in 2003 and we were doing daily tracking, it was 48% who supported and 47% who opposed us, getting involved in a military situation. In Iraq. Here we've got 63%. number two is that it's across the board in the u [00:03:00] gov poll. So it's well over 70% of both Democrats, slightly less, but still over 70% of independents who oppose us, involvement. It's also 53% of Republicans. Now, this is, intriguing in a lot of ways because, On most major issues involving President Trump, he can count on support for from about 88 to 90% of Republicans and pretty much every issue, but in this instance, 53% oppose this kind of, military activity. So politically it's hard to see where this makes sense Also is not just simply. The numbers, but the fact that we're seeing some significant cracks in the MAGA movement. [00:04:00] People with followings who are credible among Trump supporters, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, just to name,
[00:04:11] Jeremy Zogby: Mar Marjorie Taylor Green.
[00:04:13] John Zogby: Marjorie Taylor Green in a very strong statement. and It is not going to be just simply a poll response. It's gonna be appear, apparently a very active and vocal response. I'm not gonna go too far, but let me just say that geopolitically sense, from this all. First of all, there are questions about whether or not there is sufficient capacity.
[00:04:45] I. In our bunker buster bombs to go deep into nu the nuclear storage, facility. suggesting that at the very least, this will not be quick, and [00:05:00] dirty if we attempt to take Iran's facility out. and I'm not sure the American people have, much patience for something long and drawn out. The other thing that's troubling is the change in conversation. I. To regime change? there is no question about the fact the ayatollah and Mullah are not good people. There's no question about the fact that, they're very unpopular and that Iran is always on the verge some sort of, revolt. What there is doubt about is whether or not. An outside force and notably the United States and Israel could impose a regime change on Iran. I will just tell you that what I'm reading thus far [00:06:00] indicates that even among the most ardent liberal reformers in Iran, no, none of them want to see their country attacked. They wanna say goodbye to the Ayatollah. But they don't wanna see their country attacked. I could give even more evidence than that, but, I'm gonna suggest involvement, could be another one of these failed regime change. junkets, notably Vietnam, Iraq, which is a failed state mess.
[00:06:39] Afghanistan, right back in the hands. Of the Taliban, Libya, which is a state of Anami. we're not in a good situation right now if things continue the way they are.
[00:06:54] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I'll touch on, what's going on within MAGA [00:07:00] and the Republican party first, and then to, the pros and cons. Probably mostly cons, entirely cons of, launching a strike on Iran and very basic evidence. but. You mentioned Marjorie Taylor Green, Tucker Carlson. there's Rand Paul, there's Thomas Massey,
[00:07:29] Steve Bannon.
[00:07:31] And what's going on there is the entire Trump brand was built on both internationally and domestically America first.
[00:07:44] And so in, in the domestic sense, America first, that, played into. The southern border, the notion of quote unquote open border policy, and, a tougher stance [00:08:00] or, a more thorough stance on vetting immigration that's domestically.
[00:08:06] And then of course there was a America first, and on the international scene, which translated to raising the question, which I think catapulted Donald Trump's. first campaign into the stratosphere, that first question was, do we even really need to have nato? And if we are going to have nato, maybe they should be paying us.
[00:08:29] And so that is how America First was built, and America First 2.0 was even stronger in, the 2024 election and, campaign for, presidency. And we've had this problem for. Over two decades now, almost three decades, where the neoconservative ideology has infected both political parties. They found their way into the Bush administration.[00:09:00]
[00:09:00] They found their way into the Obama administration. They found their way into the Trump administration. And I think there are voices today that say, look, Republicans are, looking at the, Democratic Party in free, free fall. They've got no real message. They've got no real platform.
[00:09:22] And we saw that play out in November of 2024. I think Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Rand Paul, and a whole host of others see that the Republican Party could very well be in the same position. Both parties can be in a free fall if, the Party of America first. Blatantly contradicts America first by getting involved in a war that is entirely of Netanyahu's creation.
[00:09:57] Who, by the way, [00:10:00] is an architect or an accomplice in the building of the, let's say, the application of the neoconservative ideology. He doesn't go back to the. To the philosophical roots, but he certainly goes back to the implementation of the neo-conservative agenda, which is toppling regimes and regime change.
[00:10:22] And so really all one has to do to know what will happen if the president decides to move forward on this. And you've already mentioned this, but I'll put it simpler. Look at Iran on a map and look to its west. Iraq and look to its East Afghanistan. And we've already seen that those have ended badly in two decade Long wars with hundreds of thousands, if not millions displaced.
[00:10:57] still to this day, [00:11:00] dysfunctional regimes and arguably better functioning before the war, at least in the case of Iraq. And then you throw into the third case study, Iran, a nation of 90 million people with a history of over 3000 years. cultural pride, intelligent people, very proud people, and rightfully And you think for one second that toppling the regime, even if unpopular is, going to be welcomed. What we were told. The same thing about Saddam Hussein. I'll tell you, Saddam Hussein is nothing like the ayatollah by my estimate. so that's going to fail and it's going to fail big time, because other players very well might get involved chiefly Russia and possibly China.
[00:11:55] the last thing I'll say is for [00:12:00] Democrats and. I'm just throwing this out there. I have seen a voice of reason emerge that nobody is looking at within, we could say the Democratic party, and I don't know if this gentleman still identifies himself as a Democrat or not, but a voice of reason has emerged ever since, Ukraine, and, the war between Ukraine and Russia.
[00:12:27] And now he's speaking out about Iran, and that is of course. The renowned, globally acclaimed Jeffrey Sachs. And if anybody wants to hear from the perspective of a Democrat, what is going on, what is at stake, and how these two conflicts happens, if they coalesce or converge, you need to listen to Jeffrey Sachs.
[00:12:57] he has all the credibility in the world when it comes to [00:13:00] geopolitics. And when it comes to, relations between nations and he is made the, and this is my closing point, he made the point that he thinks he's not predicting, but he thinks Trump may come to his senses about how bad this is. I hope he's right.
[00:13:25] But nonetheless, I think if he were to become more involved. in positioning himself, I think he would do very well.
[00:13:37] John Zogby: I'm a big fan of Jeffrey Sachs. In a, number of regards, just to, by way of a few brief comments. number one, historically we already did regime change 1953 and elected government, a conservative [00:14:00] fundamentalist, Moham Sadeek, who wanted to nationalize, the oil fields in Iran and the CIA, and that stated fact, overthrew him. And we u United States imposed the Shaw, for about a decade and a half, and that was a disaster. At any given moment, there were 150,000 political prisoners. in Iran. And so regime change already did not work in Iran. the second thing is just by way of a story, an article that I had read, 14, 15 years ago when, Ihab the president of Iran and all sorts of controversies, about, the reform movement in Iran and getting rid of the mullahs and in [00:15:00] fact, even the possibility of attacking, Iran. And was an interview done with gay Iranian men in London, they were talking about the fact that they had exiled themselves into London, because of the impossibility of, fulfillment of being who they were. Iran and very critical of the MUAs the reporter for time said. And what if Iran is attacked? to a man, every one of them said, I must go back and fight for my country because I fight for the soul of my country. Even if I oppose its leadership. And I, this would just simply be. A total miscalculation, a total ego trip, and a total, sense of unreality if, [00:16:00] this, planned attack, let's say, and it was, it is a planned attack
[00:16:05] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:16:06] John Zogby: forward in the United States, were to support it. my final point.
[00:16:10] Jeremy Zogby: I'll just say that's because the gay men in London, by way of Iran. Don't trace their lineage back to the Ayatollah Revolution. They trace their lineage back to, king Cyrus and Durras,
[00:16:27] the Persian Empire. They've been around quite a long time. One of the most successful empires in world history and people, in terms of longevity and sophistication.
[00:16:41] And then the last point is. Is really what's going on here is that Netanyahu is crashing and burning politically, and unfortunately he's considering taking the rest of the world with him
[00:16:55] John Zogby: Sad and that's a sad note to end
[00:16:59] [00:17:00] one.
[00:17:00] Jeremy Zogby: and it's that simple. It's got nothing to do with Israel, with religion and hate towards them. It has to do with a very bad, corrupt leader.
[00:17:14] And his willingness having crossed for over from hubris into nemesis, and that's where he's at, and hopefully we're not there.
[00:17:26] John Zogby: on that sad note, we'll close this week and, it is a sad note because, I, none of us knows, what's, going to happen next, but we do know, what could happen if, the mistakes are allowed to continue. have a good week. We'll have that fresh polling data next time around, and we'll get it out as soon as we have it.
[00:17:53] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
[00:17:53] John Zogby: wait until Friday if it comes sooner.
[00:17:55] Jeremy Zogby: Yep.
[00:17:56] John Zogby: Okay, take care.
[00:17:58] Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Take [00:18:00] care.
[00:18:00]