[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: Anybody in the public eye, the political public eye, who has an approval rating or even a favorable, favorability rating, that's even, that's doing good.
[00:00:13] the generational torch is being passed of leadership.
[00:00:16] The party that understands the needs of those voters, let's say under 45 or under 50, is the party that holds the key to the future.
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[00:00:40] Jeremy Zogby: It's another Friday. It's June 6th, and this is the newest edition, the latest edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. for those of you who are familiar with this podcast, you'll know that my co-pilot, my, business partner and my dad. [00:01:00] Is, not with me. So I'm flying solo today. He is on the road, but he'll be tuning in and, he'll be listening to this report that we have.
[00:01:09] I have some new data from, a new John Zogby strategies poll that was conducted at the end of last week, and the data is astounding. what I did just as a quick backdrop, is I took the last two polls of ours. Both samples of a thousand voters and I combined them. And what I'm, what I wanted to do is I wanted to look at, take a closer look at young men and young women voters and older men and older women voters, as well as, just some other trends.
[00:01:49] And so the first thing that I want to say is, and we covered this last week, is that. The President Donald Trump and his approval [00:02:00] ratings, according to our poll holds over the last month, in late April, and this time around in late May, early June, the president stands with a 48% approval rating among voters and a 49 disapproval.
[00:02:20] And the key to understand is. Anybody in the public eye, the political public eye, who has an approval rating or even a favorable, favorability rating, that's even, that's doing good. And that's important because in this environment, a lot of public officials are underwater and very few are net positive.
[00:02:47] The president, effectively at 48 approval, 49 disapproval. Is breaking even. And yet the background of a lot of the news continues to be what I [00:03:00] call the theme of Trump apocalypse. That the, president is losing control. The president is out of control. And there is that dynamic in a great deal of the legacy media, the corporate media, whatever you want to call it, the mainstream media.
[00:03:17] But when we look at these numbers that I'm about to show. that I'm gonna share with you. We're gonna understand what's really going on in the political landscape, and we're gonna begin to understand what's ahead. And so I think the focus here that's very important is that the party that understands the needs of young, what I'm gonna call younger voters, but I want to, I want you to star an asterisk that.
[00:03:48] Because we're gonna have to rebrand and rethink what we mean by younger voters. I'll get to that. But the party that understands the needs of those voters, let's say under [00:04:00] 45 or under 50, is the party that holds the key to the future. and that's very important. And so I just gave you the overall approval rating.
[00:04:13] from the, electorate in general that is the average of voters, but I'm gonna dissect here, men and women by age groups. And when we do that, we really get a different understanding of what's happening in the political landscape. First, I'm gonna zero in on men who are 18 to 24 years old.
[00:04:37] Surprisingly, or not surprisingly. 59% rate the President's job in the White House. as, with approval, we go to the next cohort that is, men 25 to 34 years of age, and it's even higher. 62% [00:05:00] rating the president with, a positive approval of his job in the White House. I go to the next group, those who are 35.
[00:05:08] To 54, what I would call millennials on the older spectrum plus, generation X. And they, approve the president by 60% of them. Okay? So those are really strong numbers. and, when you combine those together, we have the electorate that are under 55 years old. Who basically, more or less, 60% of the population approve.
[00:05:40] Now, of course, when we get older, we get into those who are older than 55. we see a significant drop off, with those older cohorts, giving, an approval rating of the president about in the low forties. That's, a very significant drop off. [00:06:00] And so what happens when we go. To the other side of, of gender.
[00:06:07] And we look at, younger and middle age and older women, just like we did here. And, no surprise here, we have 26% of the 18 to 24-year-old, female voters who, only rate the president with a, with an approval, a positive approval rating. That's very low. We expect that. Here's where I started to detect something very fascinating.
[00:06:33] Women, 25 to 34 years of age. Guess what percentage of this cohort, approve of the president's job in the White House, it's 52% and they're an anomaly because every group after that is well below 50%. I want to, do, another cohort here. I, wanna look at party and age. I [00:07:00] wanna look at young Democrats and how they approve of the President, those 18 to 24-year-old Democrats, only 18% approve of Trump's job in the White House.
[00:07:14] And then here's the last group, and I'm gonna put this all together so you know what it means. 25 to 34-year-old Democrats. 41% of them approved. So we just went from under 20% of Democrats, aged 20, I'm sorry, 18 to 24, under 20% of them under a fifth of them, approving of Trump's job in the White House to the next cohort, 25 to 34, where 40%, and these are Democrats.
[00:07:48] That's actually huge. That's big. And so when we put it all together. What we see here are young men in general have a [00:08:00] very, they're very high on Donald Trump in his job in the White House. When we look at women 25 to 34 years of age, more than half of them are with the president. Will we look at Democrats 25 to 34 years of age.
[00:08:16] We see four out of 10. approve of the president. What is going on here? This is entirely different from if we turn on the news, the networks, the mainline news, and, we see something entirely different. And so this is what's going on. This is what I think the data is telling us. What's happening now in the political landscape and what I think is going to happen.
[00:08:46] The fact of the matter is. Those who have entered the lifecycle, the, point at which a person gets into their late twenties and early thirties, [00:09:00] which is, a very important point in, the adult life because this is where somebody in that age group starts to say, what am I gonna do with my life?
[00:09:12] What do I want my life to be? How am I going to build seriously? My career and how am I going to build a family? And so when I look at this data and I see the president's job approval ratings in general, higher, among this, key cohort, what that tells me is this age group is looking to launch their life.
[00:09:38] They're looking to build their life. They're looking to build families. And the Democratic pri party and the Democratic platform has not provided this age cohort with the messaging that can win their trust and earn their trust as they want to move forward, building their lives, building their careers, and building their [00:10:00] families.
[00:10:00] The President, interestingly, the MAGA movement and the messaging behind that, I think does a better job. I think the data clearly shows that. But going into the future, I think it's going to be important for both parties, Democrats and Republicans in terms of consultants and strategists and party leaders to take a, more sharp view and to say, okay, what Zogby ISS talking about here with the youth vote, particularly younger men.
[00:10:39] Particularly those in general ages 25 to 34, how do we truly understand them? Let's not call them the youth vote, right? They are younger voters, but actually what's going on is the torches being passed, the generational torch is being [00:11:00] passed of leadership. You have more baby boomers at some point in the next maybe five years, and Who are going to exit the workforce, generation X. The next generation in line will inherit more positions of leadership as millennials will then fill those positions, and then as those getting close to age 25 and 34 will start to launch their life. And so the parties are going to have to come up with messaging and a game plan and to take issues and to really understand.
[00:11:38] Those people who are launching their lives, their careers in building families, what is going to move them? What is going to impact them? What is going to drive them to vote? And how do we cater issues to their reality? And I will say that the party that can get a [00:12:00] firm grip on that is the party that will have success.
[00:12:04] Over the next five to 10 years, as that key cohort reaches the most critical point in their lives, that is whether, their careers in their lives, they, make it or, whether they break it. And so that's how we take data in the moment, and that's how we put it into the context of the political playing field, what's happening now, and how we try to look forward.
[00:12:34] Into what's going to happen. And you can see here that I've made a, strong, case not to be partisan and not to favor one party. I do think the Democrats have dropped the ball. it's ironic because for such a long time the Democratic Party had the command on the younger vote, but [00:13:00] now that this, a lot of these younger voters today.
[00:13:03] In this moment want to move forward with their lives. I think the Democratic Party, whether it was woke ideology, whether it was focusing too much on abortion and whether it was focusing too much on DEI in general, they didn't have a longer term plan of understanding what those voters who reached the lifecycle, the all important lifecycle of ages 25 to 34.
[00:13:31] What they are gonna have to deal with in life. I think in the moment republicans are doing a better job, although with the big, beautiful bill that is a trillion dollar plus nightmare for the national debt. The Republicans who currently have the, support from young men and from those ages 25 to 34, are gonna find themselves in a problem, as this fiscal train continues to go off the rails.[00:14:00]
[00:14:00] But nonetheless, the, this is the environment in which a party can recalibrate, look at what's going on. The underlying currents and trends that I would argue are, for the most part, unstoppable because this is dealing with a life cycle. how they can position their messaging and produce the kind of candidates that can support that kind of electorate.
[00:14:25] And, with that, I'm gonna wrap it up today. I'm gonna. Ask our listeners to write back, to either me jeremy@johnzogbystrategies.com to share this podcast, to have a look at the data, which is, will be up on the screen at various points. And to really start thinking about how you personally or your organization can position itself for this kind of.
[00:14:58] Larger and longer term [00:15:00] trend. And so with that said, I'd say I'm signing off and have a great weekend and we'll see you next time around with new data.
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