[00:00:00] John Zogby: the president's job approval rating has suffered, has gone down.
[00:00:04] A few points.
[00:00:06] Jeremy Zogby: I'm not gonna say drastically a point of no return, that's going too far. But continuing this trend puts him in a much difficult position to gain support back.
[00:00:18] John Zogby: He has defined that big beautiful bill as that tipping point. And it's controversial.
[00:00:25] So one of the questions we have to ask ourselves, if that big, beautiful bill passes, it's perceived as a victory for the president 'cause he wants it. But is it really going to be a victory out there with voters? These numbers could turn into.
[00:00:45] Free fall,
[00:00:46] Jeremy Zogby: and I'm asking the question politically in terms of the president, we seeing, a tipping point?
[00:00:53]
[00:00:59] John Zogby: [00:01:00] It's Monday, June 30th, and this is another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And where's Zogby? I'm John. Hello, Jeremy. How are you?
[00:01:11] Jeremy Zogby: Good. How are you doing?
[00:01:12] John Zogby: I am doing fine. Just fine. And we have this hot new poll that we, just completed and we're rolling out, and, it's about Donald Trump and about how he's doing, where he stands.
[00:01:28] We released some information. LA late last week and over the weekend, and now we're continuing, and here we are on the verge. This is an important week. President has set a deadline to pass his big, beautiful bill with only Republican support. He can only afford three defections from the Senate, and it's still guesswork as to whether it's gonna pass or not.
[00:01:57] There are serious, legitimate. [00:02:00] Questions by a few senators. One is obviously about the deficit and the tax cut and affording the tax cut. Some of it has to do with the social safety net and the fact that there are serious cuts to Medicaid, and Obamacare, and so on. And in the senator's deliberations.
[00:02:26] Certainly is the size of the, budget, the additional trillions of dollars in the deficit itself, but also because they are politicians and their job is to be reelected, is to take a look at what the impact of this big controversial budget can be on their reelection or election chances in, In 2026, and so we've got some numbers and we'll have some insights, but we did see overall that the [00:03:00] president's job approval rating has suffered, has gone down.
[00:03:04] A few points. That's overall, we saw that it's gone down in a number of issues and his, how public views his capacity to handle those issues, including immigration and the economy and so on. But you've got some interesting numbers that you're gonna post about just where exactly those declines are taking place.
[00:03:30] And so why don't you pick it up from here?
[00:03:33] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, and I think you set the table as far as this week being pivotal. We happen to have numbers, to date numbers as we, we go into. This next, crucial week for the president. And, if, look at the, top line data, as you pointed out, the overall, approval rating for President Donald Trump has slipped. [00:04:00] And then we narrowed it down, or drilled down key issues like immigration and diplomacy. And those are two issues particularly. what happened in Iran over the last couple weeks, and these stories have been trending and so this data captures that. And what happens when we drill down to important voting groups, some of which, list here either key and or bellwether groups, they gave us an indication of where things blowing in the wind. these up here and we'll leave these. we're not gonna go over all of them 'cause there's about 15 groups, but, just repeating again, voters Overall, in our May 29th poll, 48% were approval, approving of the president's job that's at [00:05:00] 45. in terms of voters, that translates to a significant number of voters we're talking about, in the millions.
[00:05:10] not tens of millions, but, certainly enough that could make an impact. What I thought was particularly interesting is the bedrock of the MAGA base and Trump's base conservative voters. We see slippage in May 29th, it was at 81% approval for the president. now down to 76. we will look into we think that might be an another essential group is, our men and, just a month ago, 55% were approving of President Trump's job to today stands at 51. Of course, we've been covering independence all along and that's been trending downward. the [00:06:00] long run, but these two groups of conservatives and men, that's more of a recent thing with independence. Yet again, we see another five percentage point from 40% approval down to 35 today. And then, a couple more I'm gonna get into, because their key is weekly Walmart shoppers.
[00:06:24] That's something you've been covering for well over a decade. just a month ago, 64% approved, and today 59% is the, three, four or five percentage points among groups that, we expect to be with the president that are firmly with the president and seeing, dropping
[00:06:46] John Zogby: Let me interject something if I could,
[00:06:49] Jeremy Zogby: I
[00:06:49] John Zogby: weekly.
[00:06:50] Jeremy Zogby: to make an important point
[00:06:51] John Zogby: Okay.
[00:06:52] Jeremy Zogby: I'm building up to that's like the phenomenon of the tipping point.[00:07:00]
[00:07:00] and I'm asking the question politically in terms of the, president, we seeing, a tipping point? and so I, I have other data that get to, but go ahead.
[00:07:12] John Zogby: Yeah, I just wanted to make that point. I've been following the weekly Walmart shoppers since, 2000. I. Actually, and every president presidential candidate who has won since 2000 has won weekly Walmart shoppers. That includes, we used to think of this as a bedrock, traditional values, conservative constituency, but Barack Obama won them twice, and Joe Biden won them.
[00:07:43] in, in 2020 and the Republicans who won the presidency from George W. Bush on won with weekly Walmart choppers. So they're actually, a pivotal group, but go ahead. I.
[00:07:57] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. and [00:08:00] another pivotal group and, let's look at where, Trump has necessarily, hasn't had. lot of slippage or maybe even some gains, and I think that's important. But, another, pivotal group, the new media consumers, those who place their trust most podcasts and social media platforms like X and they are, they have been wild about Trump, although I do see a little bit
[00:08:29] bleeding, from 56% last month approval down to 54. Hispanics up a point 53% approving, last month, 54 today. Agains, same thing. One percentage added, one percentage point added for approval from 69 last month to 70 today. it, there are groups that are still with Trump and maybe [00:09:00] even a little bit more, but nonetheless, the ones that I covered. Conservatives, men, independents, weekly, Walmart shoppers, and new media consumers. and then, I'm gonna throw this one out there to veterans, a little, bit of slipping minus two approval. something to pay attention to. Now I want to just drill down one level further look at. The approval rating of Trump's diplomacy style, we would ask, do they approve or disapprove of his style in diplomacy, engaging, other nations and, leaders. last month that was at 46%. Today it's at 42. immigration, which has been Trump's signature issue going back almost 10 years ago. Uh. One that really helped to put him on the [00:10:00] scene and one that he was performing very well with up until this moment up, until just, know, a month ago, majority with the president.
[00:10:12] 56% today that dip below 50% for the first time.
[00:10:19] he's at 49. And so this all goes back to this could be. A key moment for the Trump presidency. where, I'm not gonna say drastically a point of no return, that's going too far. But continuing that trend, continuing this trend puts him in a much difficult position to gain support back. And that's something that, that needs to be paid attention to. for, the White House.
[00:10:53] John Zogby: And it's very important as you point out there is this slippage. It's not a free [00:11:00] fall, it's not devastating, but it comes at a very. Important tipping point time. He has defined that big beautiful bill as that tipping point. And it's controversial. It's contr as controversial among his MAGA base as it is, as, the attack on the Iran nuclear facilities was, it's splitting the MAGA movement.
[00:11:28] and, apparently so is immigration. As well. but first and foremost about, the bill. There are serious concerns about Medicaid cuts in Obamacare cuts because, I have found over the years in polling in individual states, and I'm, gonna share with you and everyone else, Missouri now, Missouri.
[00:11:59] I've poll [00:12:00] many, times, and there is the very liberal St. Louis and suburbs in the east and the liberal Kansas city and suburbs in the west, but really the center state, the rest of the state is what they call is very rural and very conservative. But I found that Medicaid was iconic among all of these voters, liberals and conservatives as well.
[00:12:26] That's a piece of the safety net. That even though for middle class voters, it's for someone else, it's for poor people who can't afford and are below the poverty belt or a little bit above the low on the po. the poverty belt. It is a popular item and in this built very controversial. In fact, that in the personage of Josh Hawley.
[00:12:54] The US Senator, very conservative senator who has been, with Donald [00:13:00] Trump, since day one, but that has been his major beef with this bill has been cuts to Medicaid. President says it's cuts of waste and corruption, but most others are saying no, it's actually gonna throw people off of Medicaid, throw people off of.
[00:13:20] Medicaid portions of the affordable, care Act. So this is a very pivotal week. So one of the questions we have to ask ourselves, if that big, beautiful bill passes, it's perceived as a victory for the president 'cause he wants it. But is it really going to be a victory out there with voters? These numbers could turn into.
[00:13:47] Free fall, especially with $4 trillion additional deficit. Something that, is now a crusade by Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Tucker [00:14:00] Carlson, and others. I.
[00:14:02] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Wow. I think we covered a good amount of data. one day. so I, the game plan is to get through the week, get through the holiday week, and then see where we're at.
[00:14:19] John Zogby: Right. One further point, and I got a minute or so, we tested a couple of horse races, and how would Donald Trump do today against some of the leading Democrats? And we can take these for what they're worth against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a OC. it's Cortez. Cortez, actually 45% to Trump. 43.
[00:14:48] Percent, that 43% is not good for incumbent president against Gavin Newsom, governor of California. Newsom. 46%. Trump [00:15:00] 44. I. Percent and, identical numbers against Rahm Emanuel, who is not as well known as either of the other two, a two point, we're gonna put that in quotes. Lead. The important thing is that at this point in time for an incumbent president against.
[00:15:19] really no iconic Democrats or leading, Democrats at this point. The president is polling in the low forties. That's something to think about as we talk about a tipping point moment in his presidency.
[00:15:35] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. A, Trump fatigue question mark. Or, the next one would be the next level tipping point, question mark.
[00:15:46] John Zogby: Excellent. I think we covered a lot.
[00:15:49] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I think so.
[00:15:51] John Zogby: Okay. Let us know out there. Tell us your feelings. Have a good week.
[00:15:56] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Have a great holiday week.
[00:15:58]