[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: Are we looking down the barrel of potentially World War iii? there are conf confluence of, major hot points, geopolitical, hot points. The Middle East is continuously going up in flames.
[00:00:14] John Zogby: There is no sign, has never been any sign whatsoever. That, that this is a constitutional power that the president has
[00:00:23] Jeremy Zogby: Deportation is, a political talking point that's in the eye of the beholder, regarding voters.
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[00:00:38] John Zogby: it's, Friday, and that means another regular edition, albeit an emergency edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. I'm John Zogby, and I'm here as always with my son, Jeremy Zogby. How you doing this week? I,
[00:00:53] Jeremy Zogby: Hey, dad. I'm doing all right. How about you? I.
[00:00:56] John Zogby: I'm doing okay. I'm doing okay. [00:01:00] but, by way of a preface, we poll. And we let the numbers speak for themselves. And, that's the, our professional lives. we also have personal lives as well. This is a very troubling day and I'm going to try to lead today, by not going into a rant 'cause I'm very troubled by a lot of things that I see.
[00:01:26] But let me set the table. Okay, so first and foremost, the, American people have been speaking right along, and they have given us every indication with, the exception of a majority of Republicans, that they are not in favor of mass deportations. What do we get? We get mass deportations.
[00:01:51] Secondly. America supports Israel, but the support for Israel has been waning. [00:02:00] and they support, especially among younger people for. For Palestinians, for the residents of Gaza have been growing. But what do we get? We get really, and I can't mince words, we, get ethnic cleansing. We, get bunching people together, starving, with their hands out for aid.
[00:02:22] And then we have Israel bombing. Them, discriminately, not indiscriminately. Americans supported a nuclear deal with Iran. What do we get? We get an full scale invasion of military nuclear facilities, residences, and so on in Tehran. This is not what the American people have told us, that they want. And this does not in any way, shape or form make our lives, better.
[00:02:55] There's a lot of anxiety out there. It's been reflected in our [00:03:00] coals, but the anxiety is on the ground. It's on the ground in Los Angeles, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem in Gaza City. And in, Kiev, and in places all, over the world. And I'm very, worried and very troubled by it. That's my preface.
[00:03:22] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. things have been coming to a boil quite a while and, we will preface it by, by asking the question and, look, this may sound drastic, but if you just take the, take a look at the sheer volume of, discontent. And, and, complex events could spiral outta control just over these last five years. Then I don't think it's an exaggeration to [00:04:00] ask the question, are we looking at World War III on the international front and something of a Civil War 2.0, not necessarily trench warfare and battlefields like the bull run. And Gettysburg, but, a larger scale of what we see in la. And so I'll tackle those, two things.
[00:04:25] First and foremost, I think mass deportation, right? this is related to LA mass. Deportation is, a political talking point that's in the eye of the beholder, regarding voters. voters may think that Trump is capable of deporting hundreds of thousands or millions of, immigrants. Others, may say, just the criminals who are caught, or the criminals who are [00:05:00] suspect. And so somewhere in between, there's a vast interpretation of those two very different things. The reality is. When it comes to the President's policy of the Southern border, policy and immigration, last polling that we had, this was his strong point. What happens after la I don't know. We'll have data in two weeks. we will see, but I'm not gonna make any prediction. My, my sense is it'll probably hold, it may drop a little bit. But, think we, there are two vast different interpretations of the, phenomenon of deportations. And, I, don't think millions and hundreds of thousands of, is possible, but coordinated, busts if you will, throughout cities, a different story. But what's happening in la [00:06:00] reminds me of what happened. in Minneapolis of 2020, and I do see that potential for that anger from the opposition, to, boil over. And this summer is going to be very telling on the other major issue as per, last night and the, Israeli invasion. this is not to be taken lightly, especially when I asked a question.
[00:06:28] I. Are we looking down the barrel of potentially World War iii? there are conf confluence of, major hot points, geopolitical, hot points. Ukraine has intensified. I would say the Chinese and Taiwan Taiwanese situation appears to have subsided, but that's still there. No doubt about it. The Middle East is continuously going up in flames. has launched, full blown wars in Gaza. It has, [00:07:00] has had, strikes in southern Lebanon throughout the nation of Lebanon, even some strikes in Syria now Iran, and understand the backdrop to all of this goes back to 1996 in paper that was written by Netanyahu called a Clean
[00:07:22] Which argued for regime change in seven countries.
[00:07:26] Are you ready for what those seven countries were that Bibi Netanyahu proposed to, to topple In 96? He wrote about doing it in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Lebanon, in Libya, of course Iran. Okay. that's sixth of the seven, I think. Maybe the seventh was Somalia. Or Sudan, I can't remember. all of those countries have experienced, with exception to Iran, have [00:08:00] received, experienced war government toppling or regime change.
[00:08:06] And this is the fulfillment. And there's an old saying that past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior and. The state of Israel and the IDF are in full-blown war mode. They have been since the fall of 2023. I don't see how they turn it back and if they continue right, because these weren't surgical strikes. These were pretty, strikes to, as I understand it, and we're waiting for what the response is. This could get out of control real quick and. Other than looking at polling data, look at the markets, look at how, gold, the price of gold plays into this because it's seen as a safe haven asset. And as investors may [00:09:00] want to abandon other assets, they may go to that. So if you see the price of gold going up, there is fear for the future, and that's, norm. that's about all I'm gonna say. We're gonna have more clarity. I. When we field our next poll in two weeks to see where voters are at.
[00:09:21] But a lot is going to happen between now and these next two weeks, and it's, pretty critical.
[00:09:27] John Zogby: Okay, thanks for, that perspective. I'm, just gonna cherry pick some responses. when we talk about, first of all, immigration and mass deportations, we're talking about constitutional issues and, in a number of respects. First and foremost is the fact that the president without on a national emergency.
[00:09:58] Has nationalized the [00:10:00] Federal Guard, the National Guard, and called in the United States military to deal with a domestic crisis. There is no sign, has never been any sign whatsoever. That, that this is a constitutional power that the president has president can call and federalize the National Guard, but it has to be in response to, some kind of a federal issue.
[00:10:32] secondly is that the demonstrators are, that the, US military is there as much. To quell demonstrations and to arrest protestors, as it is, to protect ice. and, the, local police and so on. That's a whole other issue is that the local police [00:11:00] and Los Angeles are saying.
[00:11:03] there was no crisis here. we did not need the president's interve intervention. In many ways, this has made things worse. So we have constitutional crisis, we have a freedom of speech crisis as far as World War III is concerned. You, put all the pieces together, but there are still some things that are missing in both World War I and World War ii.
[00:11:28] We had Grand alliances. Which meant that if one was attacked, one side was involved in a crisis the other allies rallied to, the fore. In this instance, the United States has taken a publicly, a wait and see or standoffish, attitude, although it's hard to believe there wasn't a green light.
[00:11:56] To Israel, and those are US made weapons for the most part, [00:12:00] that are being utilized. But notice, please, China can fulfill its mission, can fulfill its silk road and its economic hegemony. Without firing a shot and letting Israel and the United States do its work. It's not gonna get involved. Russia is busy, too busy with Ukraine.
[00:12:23] The real flashpoint. There is Russia versus Europe as opposed to the United States and China. The two all, superpowers, that, that remain. We don't have, the ingredients for World War, iii, but we have the ingredients, for, as you point out, a remake of the map of the Middle East, and I have to, note that when you talk about Bebe's memo from 1996, were any of those countries successful?
[00:12:59] Where [00:13:00] there was an attempt at regime change, whether the regime changed or not, you can make the argument that the situation in every one of those countries is worse today than it was almost 30 years ago.
[00:13:14] Jeremy Zogby: Absolutely.
[00:13:14] John Zogby: And so with that said, this is not a happy time. We're gonna continue to do what we do. We'll have some fresh polling numbers as soon as we get 'em.
[00:13:27] that's all I have to say.
[00:13:28] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I'll just close by saying, the response made by, Iran will probably determine
[00:13:35] John Zogby: Yeah.
[00:13:36] Jeremy Zogby: whether this turns into a world war or not. Of course, we have to understand that in 2025, a World War doesn't have to, probably will not look anything like and 1942 or 39 or 45. this is an entirely different. playing field in, terms [00:14:00] of, those things. but I guess I should just it out there. What's on the front of my mind in watching closely how Iran responds is. Things like the straight of Hormuz, which, you know, if that's closed, that kind of inches us
[00:14:21] a world war. but won't get ahead of ourselves. We'll, go into this weekend and, see how things play out and we'll be back next week to see where we are and where it's going.
[00:14:36] John Zogby: Okay, thanks. Have a good week.
[00:14:38] Jeremy Zogby: Thank you. Yep. Have, a good one.
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