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John Zogby: for someone who, has really the unorthodox route. Of building a base by simply building a base among ardent supporters in key demographic groups. we see chinks in the armor,

Jeremy Zogby: What we're witnessing in a matter of just several months is an intense collapse.

I'm not even sure that a catastrophe.

Could even u unite the country between the Hyperpolarization and his character.

John Zogby: It's Wednesday and this is another addition of real polling in real time with Zogby. And as always, I'm here with, Jeremy. How you doing this week?

Jeremy Zogby: I am doing fine. How about you?

John Zogby: I'm doing okay. Two of us are, two of us are doing okay. [00:01:00] but, polling in real time, we have real polling and it's hot off the press and, just gonna preface it by saying that. every Saturday, appears in the Washington Examiner, my weekly report card for the president.

and it's something that I've done since the inauguration of Barack Obama. it's been out there quite a bit and my grades have always been all over the place. But I coined a phrase, the presidential drown ter three gls. Is a drowning. And last week I gave President Trump, one glug and I'm gonna probably barring anything unforeseen and looking at our polling number right now, give him one glug this week, which means he's one third of the way. Towards drowning. [00:02:00] he is not doing well and we've caught some real slippage in some real time here. I'm gonna start with a few numbers and then, you, pick up from there. Is that all right?

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: Alright, so we have the president's overall approval rating sl. and so going back, earlier in the year, February, March, he was hovering around 48, 49 approval and the same, He was down last month down to 45 approval. now at 43 of 54 and as always, it's the numbers behind the numbers. That tell the story, and again, I'm only gonna begin to tell it. Here's what struck me that his disapproval rating among Republicans is 18%. [00:03:00] May not seem high, but he's been resting on single digits disapproval. approval by Republicans as is MAGA base. disapproval, brings him down among Republicans, among independents. The worst he is been doing thus far. 63% disapproval, approval. That's a 32 point differential. And his worst number so far, he's sliding other key groups. But another thing that struck me, and I'll turn it over to you, is that among conservatives, self-described conservatives, has, 79% approval, but 21% disapproval.

And so for someone who, [00:04:00] has really the unorthodox route. Of building a base by simply building a base among ardent supporters in key demographic groups. we see chinks in the armor, there, among some of those groups. I think, and we'll get into this conversation about why, but I think he's in real trouble. I think that, as we begin to enter August and September. This Epstein thing continues, even with his trip abroad, able to change the subject, but only momentarily it boomerangs. right back to, Epstein. You're gonna see further ar erosion. What do you think? Looking at the numbers chair?

Jeremy Zogby: I'm actually confident to [00:05:00] remove the word think altogether on this episode. You laid out numbers that sounded catastrophic and the numbers that I'm gonna go over just further drive that point home.

but before I get into that, I think it would be useful. To include a historical analogy, going back to George W. Bush, and in the beginning when, he first got elected, his approval ratings were not, good, but after nine 11, they shot up to, what was it? Just shy of 90% approval, maybe like 88 or 89%.

John Zogby: Exactly.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. But it took something. Like a tragedy That was nine 11 to unite the country and he rose to the occasion. There was no question about it though, following that with, [00:06:00] the war rhetoric and, the war in Afghanistan and then in Iraq, it just went off of a cliff over the course of a year. A year, and then two and then three, so that by the time you got.

To near the end of, Bush's, first presidency, it was back to close where it was in, in the forties. I, believe that was the case. Certainly by the end of his second term. it was atrocious. And the way to describe that is manic. There was a mania. That's a useful historical analogy because.

Although remember, analogies aren't perfect, but they help give us something to compare and to gain some perspective. What we're witnessing in a matter of just several months is an intense collapse. and so you focused on, on both the [00:07:00] approval and the disapproval among a few key groups, especially just voters in general.

I wanna look at month over month where Trump was with his, just his approval alone, as of last month in late June versus now. And I'm not gonna go through all of these key, groups, key and bellwether groups, but the ones that are staggering. I'll just name them in no particular order, but Hispanics.

back in late June, 54% of Hispanic voters rated the president, with, approval, for his job in the White House. Today, that's at 41. That's a collapse of a 13 percentage points. another one, our parents [00:08:00] with young children, just a month ago, 62%. Approved President Trump's job in the White House today.

That's down to 50. Now that make no mistake about it. Parents with young kids were an important part of what we were calling MAGA 2.0, which was this even broader base of support beyond your typical veterans. Born again and conservative voters. Parents were firmly with Trump in one month, a nosedive of 12 percentage points.

Dropping in, approval rating. And then, another one I talked about voters ages 25 to 34, who no doubt about it were between a combination of just their nature of, media consumption and their preference for social media particularly X And podcasts and, there's [00:09:00] another group called The New Media Consumers.

But those ages 25 to 34 fit neatly into this paradigm of, the new media consumer voters. They, were high on Trump, ages 25 to 34-year-old voters, giving him 54% approval last month down to 45. That's. A drop of nine percentage points. And, while we're at it, let's look at the new media consumers, who last month, 54% approved of the president today, that's at 50.

And these are groups that, we and I have been covering frequently and making the point that watch for these groups because they were firmly with the president in the first few months. And now you see them dropping off like flies. So much that I don't even know how he gains them back

John Zogby: That's a good question. And that was what I was gonna follow up with. [00:10:00] he get them back? I don't believe he can. I think it's point of no return right now. He has been, nimble. He's been, forthright. He, uses humor and showmanship. you, he operates, to some degree in a political vacuum, with, Democrats being at a low point in terms of popularity, and enabled him.

But I think that when you get to the crux of the Epstein matter and you look at the characters are involved, you look at the charges. You look simply at the way the President has handled it from, ordering, I guess we would say the Attorney General to not release [00:11:00] any of the documents to flippantly say about Ghislaine Maxwell. Yeah. I have the power to pardon her. This is a woman convicted of child sex trafficking, serving 20 years. Yeah, I have the power to do it, but no one's asked me yet. Those are the sorts of things. and you hit on a critical point there, a bedrock conservative group, parents of children under 17, living at home. are not the sorts of actions that generate any real confidence among parents.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. And, I'll just say a, couple things. I, maintained the point that I made last week that, the president is, in great trouble. The numbers are showing it. How does he get it back? I don't think he can. I, don't even think that a [00:12:00] catastrophe. I'm not let's say, I'm not even sure that a catastrophe.

Could even u unite the country between the Hyperpolarization and his character. You combine those two and there's, there just doesn't seem to be the ability to unite behind a leader as much as anyone. Dislikes, George W. Bush, he at least ro Rose to the occasion. And he at least used that, that empathy factor that, that he had where he he could level, he could talk and look and present himself like an everyday person and, he could show a little bit of a compassion behind it.

There, there isn't that here in, in today's context. And so I don't even see how the president, rebounds. but, I do have one other group that, that I think also just drives this point home. And that's born again, Christians, the evangelicals. if you look at some [00:13:00] of the targeted ads, that were circulating, in the lead up to the campaign, and one in particular was, and God gave us Trump, I mean there was this, buildup of this notion that Trump was the second coming in a political context, that he was here to save America and that the reason why the bullet missed him.

Is that God intervened and born again. Evangelical voters have even, turned their, their back away from the president last month. 70% approved this month, 66, 4 percentage points drop, among that kind of group, that's something to take a look at.

John Zogby: I think the South Park guys have dealt with the issue of, second coming of Trump, fairly, But, you raise a good point, and this is my final point [00:14:00] I am thinking of, three who presidencies were revived. By events, bill Clinton, 19 94, 19 95, mainly 1995, was deemed irrelevant. Brit Hume of a b, c News even asked him, is the presidency still relevant? After the Republican revolution, lost 60 plus seats in Congress. Newt Gingrich was acting as Prime Minister, and then the Oklahoma bombing of the Murrah building. allowed for Bill Clinton to do what he does best speak with empathy in Oklahoma City and Bond the nation. The second was Rudy. Rudy, politically was dead in the water towards the end of his second term. In fact, September 11th, 2001 was the scheduled day of the New York Primary. but [00:15:00] Rudy. Just I'm stumbling because he rose to the occasion. Even for those who hated Rudy then, and even hate him, now they have to give him credit because the credit is, due. those, I think were a couple of prime examples. Of course, you mentioned, George W. Bush. I. I don't see that kind of event. I don't see the capacity of Trump rally the other half of the nation the, The growing half of the nation, it's now a majority. not only overall, but he pretty much has a majority who disapprove of his handling of every issue.

Again, the exception is, [00:16:00] handling immigration and the southern border, but he has suffered there too.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: for the first time, less than half. approve of his handling of immigration. I think it's, we're gonna see a slow and steady slog and possibly, a, presidential res resignation or removal of some sort.

Jeremy Zogby: Interesting. I wouldn't rule it out. But I don't know, so I'll just leave it at that.

John Zogby: Okay. That's enough for one week's work, right? We

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah,

John Zogby: where, can folks see the rest of our poll?

Jeremy Zogby: they can go to john zobe strategies.com. they can listen to this and of course share the podcast. but if they wanna read it, it's gonna be under the insights button. And then news, it's gonna be up shortly and, We have [00:17:00] other, questions too that, that we break down that are, pretty key in telling of the landscape and where things are headed.

So be sure to check it out and, share it.

John Zogby: There is one other point we've been tracking, proud versus ashamed. The, and again, question that I've been asking, since the Clinton administration and generally it's been an even split, slightly more ashamed than proud, numbers have almost fallen off a cliff, including a substantial number of, Republicans and conservatives that say that they're ashamed that Donald Trump is president of the United States. Again, another, another number to look at. Okay, that's it for me. Have a good week.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, you too.

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