[00:00:00] Jeremy Zogby: we go back to the word that you used that I think is key, which is confusion.
[00:00:06] John Zogby: The entire Jeffrey Epstein saga, which continues ,
[00:00:10] That has even Fox News, worried as well as a number of MAGA leaders like. Steve Bannon
[00:00:19] Jeremy Zogby: Is MAGA juice? Is it losing momentum? And if it is, can it be regained?
[00:00:27] John Zogby: I don't know, given the hyperpolarization that we have today that. that the era of the big bounce, still exists, but it's, these little declines, that over a period of months could produce, seismic shifts.
[00:00:45]
[00:00:52] John Zogby: Good morning. It's July 14th, Bastille Day, Monday morning, and welcome to another edition of Real [00:01:00] Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And as always, I'm John Zogby and I'm here with my son and the, managing partner of John Zogby Strategies.
[00:01:10] Jeremy Zogby. Hello again. Hi.
[00:01:13] Jeremy Zogby: Hey dad, you are a master of history. So I want to ask you, other than Bastille Day, what else is today?
[00:01:19] John Zogby: I don't know.
[00:01:21] Jeremy Zogby: Orangeman Day, which, celebrates the glorious revolution in 1688?
[00:01:26] John Zogby: Oh, I didn't know they can, they were on the same day. Certainly know about the Orange Revolution though,
[00:01:32] Jeremy Zogby: yep.
[00:01:33] John Zogby: and, the booting out of James ii.
[00:01:36] Jeremy Zogby: Yep. So somewhere between a bloody revolution and a bloodless revolution. Here we are in 2025.
[00:01:44] John Zogby: And we're asking a key question today. are we starting to see the MAGA movement unravel? I'm, going to say that first and foremost, there is no [00:02:00] polling evidence, that would give credence to that question. What there is, however, is criticism among MAGA stars and maga rank and file over a number of key issues that are hitting all at once.
[00:02:15] The, in no special order. There's the big beautiful budget, which budget hawks among. MAGA folks are saying, is not beautiful at all. It's not what they voted for, not what they promised. Not only does it not deal with the national debt and the budget deficit, but it raises both, considerably. there are people that are disgusted about that.
[00:02:43] Secondly, of course, is the entire Jeffrey Epstein saga, which continues that the president, ran for reelection by saying once and for all the client list and the files would be open to the public.
[00:02:59] [00:03:00] The Attorney General who had been the Attorney General of Florida, Pam Bondi had promised a full and complete release, and then there was a 180 degree turn this past week. MAGA folks were hoping that it was gonna nail the. Some democratic stars, like Bill Clinton for example, and Senator George Mitchell and Alan Dershowitz, bill Gates, and so on.
[00:03:26] But now the word is from the Attorney General's office. There is no client list, and not releasing the file that has even Fox News, worried as well as a number of MAGA leaders like. Steve Bannon close confidant of the president. We continue. The president said something last week that was stunning.
[00:03:53] He said that, of course there's going to be some amnesty for farm [00:04:00] workers who are here without papers here illegally. He said, because of course we don't wanna punish. Good productive people and we don't wanna punish growers as well. But within minutes, his Secretary of Agriculture, contradicted him and said, there will be no amnesty for anyone.
[00:04:22] And so let's stop it there. There are others, but let's stop there. Those three big ones. and suggest that those at the very least, reveal a turnabout. Of promises, as well as perhaps if you're a critic of the president, some hypocrisy, but at the very least, no matter where you stand on the political spectrum, confusion about what's this president doing and what's he all about, and is he playing with his MAGA movement or not?[00:05:00]
[00:05:00] But again. While that would suggest a beginning of an, unraveling of, the movement, again, we don't see any evidence in the polling at least yet. What do you think?
[00:05:15] Jeremy Zogby: to add three in there and I won't elaborate too much on them, of course there was the 180,
[00:05:24] John Zogby: Yes.
[00:05:25] Jeremy Zogby: that was also
[00:05:26] John Zogby: Big one.
[00:05:27] Jeremy Zogby: more or less. and then, another one, and, actually the next two are more or less interrelated, Iran.
[00:05:42] there was the promise to stop forever wars, to not get involved in additional wars.
[00:05:49] Now, perhaps to the p the president's credit, it was a bold move. we, still don't really know exactly what went on. W [00:06:00] were these facilities really actively, um, uh, trying to produce, weapons or had a program for nuclear enrichment, or was this one of those things where, Trump had his team pinpoint that were less active or actually had, been abandoned and then bombed them and sold the public on, hey, we took him out, to, send the signal to Iran. That, Hey, we needed to do something to look tough, but we're not willing to take it to World War iii. all we know is that it didn't go, over the cliff that like many were fearing. And so the issue though is this, what does that do to Iran? that bring Iran even closer [00:07:00] to Russia and China?
[00:07:01] I'm sure it does. Does it reveal a weakness that Iran has the upper hand because they can close the rait of Horus? And they started to do that. And then within 48 hours, it looked like there was a ceasefire, or at least a temporary ceasefire is basically, is this emboldening Iran? And, a what we talk about, a greater movement and momentum towards, a multipolar world and a weakening western NATO world. And then also there's this third issue of what is up with the United States and Israel. And actually some think that ties into Epstein. it obviously ties into Iran. I don't know. But what I just laid out there is utterly complex. And then combine it with what you laid out with. And we go back to the word that you used that I think is key, which is confusion. [00:08:00] Among voters. So the question becomes, what will the polls show from this pivotal and very key last week that on the surface looks like maybe the presidency is starting to lose momentum juice and maybe MAGA is starting to lose momentum in gisa. I have some numbers, which we already shared, the last time, and we went over from our last poll. June 25th, the, cohorts, bellwether groups and key cohorts, and how they rated the, president. And so what I'm gonna do is show how before very action packed week, we already started to see slippage, serious slippage among the president. And I'm gonna try and, C what's the direction now?
[00:08:57] Even though we don't have data just yet, [00:09:00] maybe we can extrapolate or see a trend line. And so I just want to go over three or four groups.
[00:09:09] we saw a two point slippage among veterans. Veterans of course, by and large are with Trump, two point shedding in approval rating from May to June among veterans.
[00:09:24] Another very key group where, as I've talked about before, are those ages 25 to 34, and I did an entire podcast focusing in on them and how they were surprisingly very high on Trump. And from May late May to last June, we saw the approval rating of the president. Among them drop three points. Okay? And then the last group. Which I think is, going to be, I still think is perhaps the most key voting [00:10:00] cohort for Trump in determining whether he has long-term success or short-term success are the new media consumers now understand who these folks are. place their trust in social media, especially platforms like X, and they place their trust. In podcast and especially from those who are like Joe Rogan and that crop people, podcasters who are not afraid to do deep dives into topics that are taboo and that are often not covered in the legacy media, the national media, and even local media. And among the new media consumers, we saw a two percentage point drop in approval rating.
[00:10:46] Now that was June 25th. So the point is with all of this that has gone on, especially the story with the Epstein files, remember the new media [00:11:00] consumers are going to be highly driven by those kind of stories. why they go to social media and why they go to podcasts to figure out what is true, what is not true, and what's swept under the carpet. And the Epstein story is probably the granddaddy of them all in trying to figure out what is really going on. So what I wanna know, the next time that we launch our poll among those three groups that I just listed, veterans, those ages 20, five to 34, and particularly new media consumers. All of these events, especially the story of Epstein. And Oh, there's a lot there. And then a 180. No, there's nothing there. Move on. It goes back to your question, is MAGA juice? Is it losing momentum? And if it is, can it be regained?
[00:11:59] John Zogby: [00:12:00] I think you summed it up, perfectly. I'm glad you added those additional issues because there are six or seven. in terms of where we go from here, this is why we're polling monthly. those declines that you mentioned among key groups, we put in the category of small, two points, three points, but like the old children's game made you look whenever you see something, especially something that had been rock solid.
[00:12:34] numbers that have been rock solid and you start to see a little bit of D decline, then you've got to look closely track it and see if that decline continues. Two or three more points, two or three more points the month after that. And now what you have is, is a slide. Interestingly, I go back to the days where.
[00:12:57] events could produce big [00:13:00] bounces or big free falls. we certainly saw that before I was professionally polling, say with Jimmy Carter, with George HW Bush numbers, plummeted. I don't know, given the hyperpolarization that we have today that. that the era of the big bounce, still exists, but it's, these little declines, that over a period of months could produce, seismic shifts.
[00:13:30] We're gonna be looking at them. I'm done. I think I've said what I need to say.
[00:13:34] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I'll just recap that. You're right, those are small. but In an era of competitive politics and hyperpolarized politics and literally elections that can come down to a swing county or a swing state, something to, keep your eye on. But the biggest point is this. If we [00:14:00] saw that late June and we did not have such an action packed week like we saw last week, begs the question. are, where do those three groups fall? Are veterans angry about, the change in policy, at least the change in verbal policy in support for Ukraine? they angry about, what happened with Iran or are they satisfied then the new media consumers, are they just going to give up because much of them put a lot. Of, trust and high hopes in knowing what is the story behind arguably the most treacherous story of the last 10, 15, 20 years. That is Epstein. I think, I, won't predict, but I could see [00:15:00] where those numbers to fall off could be even larger.
[00:15:05] John Zogby: They could be. You know what makes this curious, and this is my final point, is that Los Angeles is an armed camp. Not the entire city, but that few block area, around, city Hall and the Hall of Justice. at, the same time, the, genocide and it is genocide that's taking place in Gaza is beyond stunning.
[00:15:33] The reports of dozens of people, even over a hundred people daily now being shot. Sadly, like fish in a barrel, children and, women. and that continues. But the summer is a time when a president normally tries to lay low and not generate controversy or allow events [00:16:00] to generate controversy because folks have other things on their mind in, In June and, July and August. It makes it even more curious that the president would do this turnabout on Jeffrey Epstein, because that's in the news, and that's the kind of sensational news that people pay attention to no matter what season.
[00:16:25] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to stick to my word, although I'm tempted to do, additional recap, but I'm gonna stick to my word that was, my final word.
[00:16:37] John Zogby: Okay. Have a good week.
[00:16:40] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, you too. And, I'll talk to you very shortly.
[00:16:43] John Zogby: Yeah, very shortly. Bye-bye.
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