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Jeremy Zogby: Each generation kind of taking a longer time to get into what those normal phases of life would be.
John Zogby: we are, we're in a revolutionary period, a period of, of disruption and chaos of many things all at once, crumbling and then collapsing,
Jeremy Zogby: boomers, according to this generational theory, where the profit generation, X we're the nomad generation, interestingly, ironically, the millennials are the hero generation. Why? That is because. We, millennials will inherit the crisis
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John Zogby: It is Friday of Labor Day Weekend and welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. Hey Jer, how are you doing this week?
Jeremy Zogby: Um, I, I'm doing fine. How about you?
John Zogby: I'm doing okay. Yeah, and, [00:01:00] um, speaking of real polling and real time, we are in the field right now as we speak and expect to have fresh polling results on a wide variety. Of, uh, important issues which we will release, um, next week sometime after Labor Day, uh, in a podcast. But for now, you and I had a brief chat yesterday and, um, we decided we wanted to update both ourselves as well as our sub subscribers, watchers, and listeners on the notion of age cohorts.
And, um, what may be, uh, germinating and developing among them. And so if you don't mind, I thought I'd take a few minutes to just do kind of a broad overview on age cohorts in America. So what, first and foremost, when we talk about age cohorts, I think everybody needs to know. We're not talking about the [00:02:00] life cycle.
We're not talking about. 20 somethings, 30 somethings, 40 somethings. We're talking about people, um, and the values and character that they developed because of the historical period in which they live. So for example, I'm a baby boomer, aging baby boomer, and we, um, grew up. Uh, as children, um, in schools during the Cold War, learning about, uh, good versus evil.
The US versus the Soviet Union and internalizing those values. But what changed us and what defined our persona to a great degree was television. And the fact that television news expanded, it was video. And for the first time we got to see the United States' behavior in [00:03:00] war overseas, in hosing down and setting dogs on.
Uh. Uh, on civil rights demonstrators on a, an assassination of a US president, and we became, by and large, rebellious, even to the point where there was a generation gap between us and our parents who were of the greatest generation, um, who of the, the Depression in World War ii. Our years are 1946 to about 1963 or 64.
We boomers are followed by what's popularly called Gen X. This is a group that from born during the mid sixties to the late seventies, and essentially they're born into an America where everything seems to be coming apart. We start with political assassinations, [00:04:00] uh, splits over civil rights and, and war in Vietnam, uh, uh, shortages, uh, structural recessions, uh, oil embargo, other nations, uh, challenging the, uh, the America at the height of the American century.
And Gen X is with all respect. Um, uh, a age cohort that's adrift. In other words, learning that, um, familiar institutions that were supposed to be giving comfort, uh, and always had to a great degree. Were no longer there. Divorce rates were up, abortion was legalized. Um, it was no longer the United States, right or wrong.
Uh, this is a group, uh, that fundamentally, not entirely, but fundamentally is more libertarian than other older [00:05:00] groups, simply because, um, they were on their own. Followed then by the famous millennials, even larger than baby boomers. We're looking at about 1980 to 1996 as their years of birth. What defines them is technology and the tremendous advance in, uh, in, in, uh, communications technology in particular.
Uh, these are people then who evolve into a, a time where the world is available to them, literally in the palm of their hand. And so they are defined by, uh, an expansion of global culture. An ex, uh, a facility with global music and global fashion. Um, they have social networks that include people who are all over the world and they have, I called [00:06:00] them in my writings, the first globals.
Um, none of us age cohorts are perfect in any way, but they are the children of boomers and to a great degree. Um, not entirely all at all, but to a great degree, share a number of the values with boomers. And then we moved to, uh, gen Z, uh, 1997 to the present and Gen Z, um, again are born into an America falling apart.
They're 100% netan. However, unlike even millennials who can remember a time. Without an in internet as small children, these, um, gen Z, are totally in a technology world. With each age group, the level of stress and anxiety is growing. What do Gen Z [00:07:00] share in common in America that perhaps is no longer the world leader, um, in America that, um, uh, has, uh.
This is a, a crazy phrase, but has lost its innocence in America that is not necessarily appreciated throughout the world, but also, um, an appreciation of technology. But finally a fear of technology as, um, uh, we move more and more towards artificial intelligence, deep concerns about jobs, about future, about personal and social relations.
Uh, about a lot of things. Um, that's the, uh, the view from 35,000 feet. Was that all right to start?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and I can just fill in
John Zogby: Sure.
Jeremy Zogby: by and large, that's, um, that's a comprehensive picture. Um, I want to pick up [00:08:00] with
John Zogby: I,
Jeremy Zogby: anxiety
John Zogby: yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: I want to fit it into, uh, the notion of the fourth turning.
John Zogby: Mm-hmm.
Jeremy Zogby: which I, I, I subscribe to this generational theory of history that is seasonal history.
And the fourth turning is the, the fourth phase. It's the fourth season, it's the winter. And all you need to know, I mean, you should read the book, but a basic primer, um, the American Revolution was the fourth turning.
John Zogby: Mm-hmm.
Jeremy Zogby: And four generations later, about 80 years. Civil War was another fourth turning, and then about 80 years later, 70, 80 years later, Great Depression into World War II was the fourth turning, and then another 70, 80 years later after that, here we are entering the 2020s.
We are in the fourth [00:09:00] of the fourth turning, which I interpret as the granddaddy. All the fourth turnings and Neil Howe and William Strauss laid us out elaborately with the archetypal generations that fit into each. And that's where I'll pick up, but, but it's absolutely key to talk about where you left off on the stress and anxiety among Gen Z because they've been born into inherently a world of stress and anxiety.
Because we are now in the crisis phase, the fourth turning. And you agree with this notion of history, I do, this is the march of history. There's no escaping this. This is like, it's like trying to escape winter and spring and summer and fall. Fall. It's just not gonna happen. Um, but to go back now, you know, the baby boomers, one thing I would just add to that is when I look at the baby boomers from a [00:10:00] historical point of view. I cannot help but notice that, um, you know, was a generation by and large from my vantage point, I think, and I think this is completely accurate, a, a generation that has basically more or less only known boom times, sir Baby Boomer comes from, you know, those pent up World War II soldiers who came back to the GI Bill and. And a, a, a society that gave them benefits and, and they, they had a lot of babies and that was the boom. But the boom in the Boomer is also the golden age of the fifties and still, you know, a strong economy. Even though the seventies was a period of, of, of somewhat crisis, by and large. up with the eighties and then into the nineties and then the early two thousands, boomers have been able to accumulate and accumulate more and more and more wealth. They are entirely driven by an [00:11:00] ethos of an overall booming economy with some blips in between, but also marketing. They were the first generation. the time they entered into this world, a generation that was mass marketed to and every phase of their life involved some kind of mass marketing.
I would even argue, and this is up for but I mean even the rebellious culture was more or less marketed to them. I, I don't think it was as much organic we think. Um, especially when, when, you know, you look into certain things, but we don't have to go down into that road. Generation X as you laid out, you know, they came of age in a societal breakdown, the seventies in that dark culture. you know, parents divorcing, um, horror films, you know, galore heavy metal, crazy music. It was just a dark time and you know, [00:12:00] that's why they became helicopter parents. Because they were called latchkey kids and when they had parents, they were just, you know, watching every single move. 'cause they didn't want their kids to grow up in that uncertainty that they did. about the millennials, um, you know, and millennials get a lot of flack, um, and this ties back to I and Neil Howe said this, the, the man who wrote the book on this, he says, we need to kind of reexamine. The timelines of the generations because the generations have kind of lengthened a little bit.
And, and let me demonstrate that, and I'll get back to millennials, boomers probably because of, of their economic success in the, the world that they inherited. avoiding becoming elderly. And you could just see that everywhere, generation x you know, typically. [00:13:00] Should have entered positions of leadership maybe five, 10 years ago.
But they're just starting only recently starting to get into positions of leadership. And millennials have been putting off becoming parents and getting married and homeowners, and the statistics are unbelievable. I mean, here's one stat. Last year, the average age of a home buyer, a first time home buyer was 38 years old. so that's just in the nature of this fourth turning that's kind of slowing things down. And so we kind of need to reevaluate exactly what those years are. Um, Neil House suggests, for example, gen X is probably now better described as 61 to 81. but all of that is, is to say that, with, with. Each generation kind of [00:14:00] taking a longer time to get into what those normal phases of life would be.
That's creating tension and it's creating a lot of tension. you see a lot of finger pointing. You see, okay, boomer and okay millennial, and I understand that, but really at the end of the day, this is kind of just the march of history. And I think people would be better to understand that. It's not a personal thing.
It, it's really just the mechanics of history and it's gonna play itself out. I will say one more thing. The, the, the, the boomers, according to this generational theory, where the profit generation, X we're the nomad generation, interestingly, ironically, the millennials are the hero generation. Why? That is because. We, millennials will inherit the crisis. Boomers are probably not going to see the, the totality of the [00:15:00] crisis. A lot of them aren't going to see it, but it's the millennials who are by and large gonna have to pick up the pieces and they're going to have to rebuild it. And probably they'll share that with generation X, but that's what's going to make them. A hero generation is that they're gonna rebuild the next order. They're gonna have to, 'cause it's coming apart.
John Zogby: Well, you know, I subscribed to all of that, um, and. I'll just add that I've written about that, uh, in the way we'll be and in First Globals. Um, a couple of things though that I think stand out. One is that I have been amazed over the years the degree to which, uh, while I grew up in a generation gap. Uh, cultural gap between us baby boomers and the greatest generation of World War ii.
I still see [00:16:00] an absence of a generation gap today. Now, that's not to say that there aren't differences, different outlooks on the world, uh, some impatience. Okay, boomer. Okay. Millennial. Uh, that manifest themselves, but it was, it's not two oppositional cultures rejecting the legitimacy of, of each. And I think that that's encouraging to me.
Um, and also it speaks for Gen Z. As well, let's not forget them. Um, the second thing that I would point out is we are, we're in a revolutionary period, a period of, of disruption and chaos of many things all at once, crumbling and then collapsing, uh, in front of our very eyes in real time. Um. We, we can look at Donald Trump and, and [00:17:00] see the disruption, um, you know, that, that his administration brings.
But Donald Trump's presidency is a symptom of a much larger, falling apart, coming apart. These are institutions that no longer serve. A fast-paced, tech-driven, uh, world decisions have to be made quickly. Decisions have to be made by consensus. Decisions have to be made more and more democratically, and we will get to that point.
And I do subscribe to the notion. Of a hero generation. And in fact, uh, it in some instances have been called, uh, a Pollyanna because I placed too much faith in millennials and Gen Z, mainly because you're not steeped, they are not steeped in a defensive culture. They had nothing at all to do with this disruption.
They're [00:18:00] not responsible, uh, to cure this disruption. Their responsibility is to take leadership and really start anew. And I think we're at that point. Um, and I've said on numerous occasions that. Things will get worse, period of disruption and revolution before things get better. We are in the eye of the storm right now and the one thing that gives me hope is, um.
Our millennials and Gen Z who have the opportunity then to not say, but we always have to do this, but we've always relied on that. But to move forward and create the kinds of, of decision making structures, the kinds of value structures, the kinds of um, uh, spiritual. Entities, government [00:19:00] entities that make much more sense for a 21st century and beyond than anything that those of us who were in a defensive position first and foremost could ever come up with.
Jeremy Zogby: Hmm. Yeah. And, and I would just be careful of trying to, early on, determine what that needs to be. You know, whether, you know, you're, you're saying, yeah, I mean, you do need consensus, And, and yeah, there should be quick decisions, but maybe that's the problem. Maybe part of the problem making too quick of a decision and, and thinking you need to react to it is really just going to more chaos. So, I, I, I don't know what, that's only what that's gonna look like. I think we're only gonna know after, um, the smoke clears from the rubble. And, and you know, only then when the [00:20:00] smoke clears, going to be understood the totality of the undoing and destruction of the old order your generation are so familiar with.
Um, you know, probably AI is, is going to. Play a more dominant role. Although, you know, some people say that it's, it's in a bubble. I, I think that's probably true. But, but here's the key and, and I think this goes back to the other issue with anxiety and that Gen Z has about technology, specifically ai, and, and this'll be my concluding point, is we ultimately have a say in that, you know, if we fall into this doom loop of pessimism and cynicism. That AI it is, is just gonna take over. And that, you know, we also just accept feeding AI and accept it as, um, as if it's, it's entirely determined. [00:21:00] We more than likely will experience a self-fulfilling prophecy of that. But yet, we demand, Office holders, and I'm not gonna say leaders, I like better office holders. Uh, that they place certain constraints on it and that we, we have more of a conversation about how it can be a tool and less this, this, I'm sorry, this crazy notion of super god-like intelligence certain circles in Silicon Valley are obsessed with and obsessed with living forever. Um. That it can be, it can be a tool that can, can help us, we ultimately, humans are the masters. that we have to seek higher levels of intelligence and consciousness, not just by relying on a, you know, a program, but us. Um, I, I think then we're starting to build the reality of what AI [00:22:00] is like, and so I, I just, I, I, I steer clear from that. Nihilistic pessimism because I, I see a lot of, I see a lot of, um, negativity in that. I think, I think we can empower ourselves to direct, um, what, what, what a future with AI can look like.
John Zogby: I, I agree with you. Yeah, I agree with you that, um, there will always be, always be a need for human agency. I mean, I just don't see the fundamental makeup of humans and some particularly younger humans to just roll over and say, I'm defeated. Um, this rules and there's no place for me in this society. It, it has hasn't happened before when there have been radical, dramatic changes.
These are even more radical and dramatic changes and yet, um, um, a [00:23:00] greater need, uh, for human intervention, um, uh, human feeling. Um, um, uh, humanitarianism, uh, than than ever before. And so I don't see us ruled by machines, but I do see us, um, us meaning human beings, um, as a greater force for reigning in machines, uh, and, and asserting ourselves.
This'll be a battle. To be sure. But, um, we have survived battles before. That's all I have to say.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I mean, I think that's, uh, enough to go into the Labor Day weekend and relax and, uh, reflect.
John Zogby: Yep. And,
Jeremy Zogby: add anymore.
John Zogby: and new numbers next week. Right.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, and we'll probably we should do a, a podcast more towards the [00:24:00] middle rather than the end of the week.
John Zogby: Okay.
Jeremy Zogby: stay tuned for that.
John Zogby: Okay, millennial.
Jeremy Zogby: Uh, okay, boomer, uh.
John Zogby: Alright, take care. Have a good week.