[00:00:00] John Zogby: what is the end game? If the end game is ethnic cleansing, just doesn't work. that just can't work.

[00:00:09] These numbers incidentally about an independent Palestinian state not changed, over the more than two decades, almost three decades that we've been polling them.

[00:00:23] Jeremy Zogby: And so why is it that 40%, about 40% are still undecided on the matter?

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[00:00:35] John Zogby: It is Friday. That means another edition of real polling in real time with zogby. I'm John Zogby and I'm here with my son Jeremy Zogby. How are you doing?

[00:00:45] Jeremy Zogby: I am doing fine. How about you?

[00:00:47] John Zogby: I'm doing okay. there is an issue out there that we really need to address and from a polling standpoint as well as from a global [00:01:00] standpoint. And the overall question, I think for discussion. Is about Gaza and is Gaza, Israel's, Vietnam, has Israel reached a point of no return, Gaza and made some choices that are very similar to US choices that were made in Vietnam. And so we had a question on our most recent poll, and I'm gonna actually get right to the wording. About this, what we like to do is we like to present both sides and then ask people, which of the statements comes closer to their own view. So let's listen carefully. Which of the following best represents your view? The first President, Emanuel Macron of France, along with 143 other member countries of the United Nations. [00:02:00] that only an independent Palestinian state can help move the Middle East toward peace by freeing Palestinians from Israeli domination, allowing them to form a state that can deal as an equal with other nations, or this statement, the Israelis reject the idea of a Palestinian state. that it would pose a continuing threat to their security. Some Israelis in the government also insist that the only path to guaranteeing Israel safety is to assert greater control over the entire West Bank and Gaza. I think that we have, represented, both sides and fairly represented both sides. Here are the results. The, two state solution question led by the, statement by Emmanuel Macro, [00:03:00] 40% overall, the Israeli argument and its reason for rejecting an independent Palestinian state. 22%, just about two to one, and then of course 37% undecided. Not to get too far into the weeds, but. What we see is a huge differential between Democrats and Republicans. Among Democrats, it's 53% for the Palestinian state to 12 backed the Israeli idea, Republicans the opposite. Almost 26%. two states, the independent state, 37%.

[00:03:45] The Israeli argument. But independence closer to the Democrats, 44% Palestinian State, 15% Israeli argument. see almost a two to one [00:04:00] differential among all of the age groups, among both college educated and those not college educated. we see even a substantial percentage, 39. To 26 among whites, but among Hispanics, 49 12 and Blacks 44 to 17. And it's a little puzzling in terms of American public opinion to see, why, US foreign policy. is not in any way it appears, to American public opinion. These numbers incidentally about an independent Palestinian state not changed, over the more than two decades, almost three decades that we've been [00:05:00] polling them. So where do things stand? The reason why I wanted to talk about it briefly today. Is that the Israeli cabinet, prime Minister Netanyahu and his senior officials met yesterday into last night, their time and determined to expand the war to move into Gaza City and extend control over Gaza City. that has won the indignation of both the, far of the uk. And its Prime Minister as well as Saudi Arabia, which said that it is, it will lead to more starvation and, more problems not only for Israel, but for Palestinians and the region. the issue triggering, [00:06:00] both the action reaction, the part of Israel is the global charge now. Of starvation policy of really a policy of ethnic cleansing and of setting Palestinians up to receive aid in certain aid centers and then shooting at them and killing them, which Prime Minister Netanyahu is said, continue in the interests of destroying. Hamas, that does not appear to be a policy that is supported worldwide. It is obviously a policy that is condemned by the Palestinians, not just Hamas, of course, by the Palestinians. But also, interestingly, you see the, protests, including protests by the, families of the do couple of dozen hostages. Or so that [00:07:00] remain in Israel, who now fear that such a policy could lead, the death of those hostages. So you have a real dynamic here within Israel, just as you had during the, Vietnam War in the United States. In fact, just yesterday you had Israeli authorities, using fire hoses on, demonstrators. you have global condemnation. After Macron issued his statement, he was shortly followed then by Kiir Starmer, the prime minister of the, the UK by Canada, and by others. And this morning, Germany, just reporting that it is, stopping arm sales to Israel if those arms are going to be used. against Palestinians. So I guess the question is, [00:08:00] why is Netanyahu doing this? What is the net gain of all of this? At that cabinet meeting yesterday, the issue was raised about turning Gaza. Israel controls 88 per 87 88. of Gaza. Gaza was already the most densely populated piece of Earth, and now about 2 million Palestinians are in a very, a much smaller part of Gaza. so are lined up in. In camps, but Israel is a, moving forward with the idea of turning the beaches of Gaza into tourism. and so this, we know from other polls is [00:09:00] something that is widely rejected. I just, I don't know that we need to spend a lot of time. Talking about this, I just wanted to get those numbers out and show that we are tracking this and to wonder what is the Israeli end game going to be?

[00:09:19] What's the exit strategy? And that's why it RI reminds me of, Vietnam me of Afghanistan. It reminds me of Iraq. You know where we go in full blazes and then we leave. And the question is, did we leave things better? Or worse, and if we left things worse, why did we do that? And why do we do that to our men and women on the ground?

[00:09:45] I think it's especially poignant now in Israel where you have. just this week, 600 former Israeli, military and intelligence officials [00:10:00] saying, widening this war is a mistake. And you have, other senior officials of government signing a similar statement and that, coupled with the fa, the families of the hostages in opposition to all of this. Do you wanna comment?

[00:10:20] Jeremy Zogby: I'm trying to fi figure out where I begin. you, you, made a point, you or you asked a question, what's the end game? You've been observing this for a while. What, do you think is the end game?

[00:10:37] John Zogby: frankly, there, there's a couple of end games here. the first is on a very personal level that. Netanyahu, politically needs his right wing to keep his government, that's the sort of thing that has motivated him right from the very beginning. I'm not even sure what his core [00:11:00] beliefs are, to tell you the truth. Aside from staying in power. and hi. His right wing wants him to go even further. Believe it or not, this is where we get into ethnic cleansing. This is where we get into, let's face it, genocide. A policy of starvation, of going well beyond destroying Hamas. Hamas is already, to a great degree, destroyed, though it will never be totally and this is not the way to do it anyway. The other is on a strictly personal level, as soon as Netanyahu is no longer, in government, he will be prosecuted as a private citizen on a number of, I'm just blatantly corrupt charges, bribery and and kickbacks and that [00:12:00] sort of thing. And he's trying to protect himself.

[00:12:03] Yeah, but what is the end game? If the end game is ethnic cleansing, just doesn't work. that just can't work. And so now even Saudi Arabia, not a friend, but Saudi Arabia, wanting to do business, wanting to make money, to side with Israel in a co security. arrangement against radicalism. You, we remember Arab Spring, a decade or so ago. but this was clearly a step too far, even for the Saudis. So frankly, I don't see anything about this makes any sense except for Netanyahu. To mistakenly conclude, this will save. Him, [00:13:00] personally, but also it will, security to Israel. That is wrongheaded thinking. And that means he has not read, about the outcome of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

[00:13:16] Jeremy Zogby: So how does this become something that gains momentum in American politics, if at all?

[00:13:24] John Zogby: I think it is already, see. That there is, it played a factor actually in 2024. a u gov poll showed afterward that among those who would have voted for Kamala Harris, but didn't vote for her, ultimately one in four said that the reason was Gaza and the fact that she didn't take a position. a against the Israeli invasion of Gaza, and differential [00:14:00] differentiate herself from Joe Biden. I think it's a continuing issue and will be not only on college campuses and in the streets, but it will be a determining factor as to whether young people turn out to vote in the midterms or not turn out to vote for Democrats in the midterms. or not. So yeah, I see it. obviously there is inflation, there is healthcare, there are job losses and so on. But this, I think will be, a wedge issue between Democrats and Republicans.

[00:14:33] Jeremy Zogby: if you look at the numbers here, and this is, this is, I guess you could say the concern, as to why doesn't this, if, one is of the belief that there is starvation and genocide going on, coupled with the fact that it's driven and led by, [00:15:00] let's just say a madman who's hell bent on maintaining his power.

[00:15:06] And doing his best to influence Washington DC to go along just so that he can avoid criminal charges. If, one believes that, why, isn't it gaining more traction? And these numbers are pretty revealing, although two to one voters side with, the creation of a Palestinian state to actually bring wider peace to the Middle East region.

[00:15:33] Two to one 40% in favor of that 20% who say Israeli security at all costs. The fact that you pointed out 37% remain undecided, I see the potential for intensity, but it's that 37% that stalls that intensity. Because you, you look at the, again, the number [00:16:00] two to one 40% in favor of Palestinian statehood, 20% in favor of, Israeli security at all costs.

[00:16:10] That looks like intensity, but that is muddied or diluted by almost 40% who are undecided. Now, on the one hand, there is the trend that Israel is losing the PR war. And that more and more people are becoming acquainted with, the imagery of what's happening in Gaza. people simply going in large crowds to obtain food, in the form of aid that is delivered.

[00:16:45] And, soldiers firing upon them, emaciated children, people being blown up at will, by predator drones. that seems to be rattling more the [00:17:00] youth who are on the kind of platforms where those images are being spread, but still, there's a large percentage of the population that's not seeing it.

[00:17:09] And so why is it that 40%, about 40% are still undecided on the matter? Part of it is the lack of exposure, but I also think another part of it is the art complexity. of the history and the information and the messaging that if you are an everyday voter who is concerned about, am I going to get to the point where I have to choose between missing my energy bill or skipping some meals and it's gotta be one or the other, and make no mistake about it, a lot of Americans are facing that.

[00:17:51] It makes it very difficult. To say what is the truth of what people say is a 2000 year [00:18:00] old battle, or, is a, is an ancient blood feud. It's very difficult to get through all the noise and to, study it and understand it. And so I, think those are the challenges at play. as, to why this, hasn't, Obtained wider appeal. And I, don't want to be grim, I, hope that it's not the case where it's too late. like with the case of the Holocaust, where people only learned about it after the fact, it became disgusted.

[00:18:44] John Zogby: there's plenty of video here. and it's not just simply, statements by but it's by aid workers [00:19:00] and journalists who are not only. On the ground covering, doing, trying to do their jobs, but are also starving themselves. Agency French Press has left because it couldn't sustain.

[00:19:19] Its own people. Its own people were being malnourished. I think there's, I don't disagree with what you said at all. I agree. I think there are two other factors at play as well. I think the first is. among those who think this through, is still maybe a sense that, can Palestinians govern themselves? they're the West Bank, under the, the PLO, the Palestinian Authority, is hopefully corrupt. elected Hamas, who were a bunch of, [00:20:00] just a bunch and, so can there be stability in an independent Palestinian state? I think other question is, see Palestinians in the popular media, either as terrorists or as victims. Are they really? People like you and me? And I think those are two major barriers to carrying this forward. that, that sense that, oh, this is just out there. This is beyond anything I can comprehend. I don't like what Israel's doing, but who are these people? And, they're, there may even be a race element there.

[00:20:46] they just don't seem like they're you and me. And that means that the tragedy continues. But at least for now. That cabinet meeting that was held in [00:21:00] Israel may have satisfied the majority of Israel's cabinet, including right wingers. but it's not playing well in the rest of the world it would appear. think that's all I really have to say and I'm glad that we got to air this issue.

[00:21:19] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I think I covered every. Thing that, I wanted to, bring up.

[00:21:25] John Zogby: I wanna hear from our folks, those that are, watching, listening or reading, chair Let 'em know they can reach us. But yeah, I'd really like, to know if we, if they're satisfied with the way we discussed this.

[00:21:44] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. simply write to you john@johnzogbystrategies.com. and or me, jeremy@johnzogbystrategies.com And, if you thought that you got some [00:22:00] content with more depth, and I'd like to think that in, in this 20 or 25 minutes we did what, it would usually take maybe two or three hours. unfortunately new segments.

[00:22:15] Only cover this stuff for three to five minutes, and an article can only go so far. So if you thought that there was a lot, of in-depth discussion and insights, you, could share it. Of course. Tag us on x. Our, our handle is at zogby strategies and just get the word out. Any platform, anything else, that, you use to obtain and share media, share this podcast.

[00:22:46] John Zogby: Okay, have a good week.

[00:22:48] Jeremy Zogby: You too. Have a good weekend.

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