[00:00:00] John Zogby: we know from our polling and that of others, anxiety levels are at record highs.

[00:00:06] I don't know that there are a lot of people. Who feel , that there is someone of stature with a desire for stability that is ready to make peace.

[00:00:21] Jeremy Zogby: From the mindset of a historian, it's pretty clear now. remember the great saying by Mark Twain, that history.

[00:00:31] it doesn't repeat itself. It, rhymes.

[00:00:34]

[00:00:40] John Zogby: It's Friday and another edition of real polling in real time with Zogby, you got a couple of zogby with us. Hey, J, how you doing?

[00:00:51] Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I'm doing fine. And you.

[00:00:53] John Zogby: Good. And I'm John. so real polling in real time, [00:01:00] we're both history teachers, 24 years for me and a good solid 10 or so for you. And, so I thought we'd leave the numbers aside a little bit and, riff a little bit about history we're supposed to do. As good historians and so I've been mowing over in my mind.

[00:01:27] how my mother, your sitti, was a tremendous storyteller and would regale us with so many stories, but not the least of which was what it was like in 1939, in the late thirties, the onset of World War ii. And what daily life was like, what expectations were like, what worry was like, what family, especially [00:02:00] those being sent overseas to nephews and in the neighborhood in Pennsylvania, and grew up with that.

[00:02:11] A sense of what it must have felt like for. Americans, and, so I have, and, others obviously throughout the world I have had that sense of, foreboding and wonder is, are we in 1939 again, are we closer to a precipice to another major war? And the anxiety level is very, high worldwide.

[00:02:53] It is in this country as well. And so I look and [00:03:00] objectively speaking, of who is right or who's wrong, we do have, three significant expansionist powers. we, we have China of course, and always the potential that. While no one is looking, China attacks Taiwan, and we are pledged to defend Taiwan by treaty. You of course have the situation in Eastern Europe. Russia, the Soviet Union, Russia history of being attacked and a history of ultra nationalism a desire both for defense, but also to rebuild the great Russian Empire just as China is hellbent on, on, on recreating the great Chinese empire and doing that through, [00:04:00] the, its silk and belt. Initiative, silk Road and Belt Initiative, as well as a use of smart power. have Israel, which is expansionist and as we speak right now its troops are beginning it's major invasion, on the ground in Gaza, and always of the potential of a Tinder box. In that region. what bothers me is that, from what mother told me and what we're experiencing now, is that we had a Roosevelt, we had a Churchill. we had a sense that awful and as [00:05:00] horrible. As things were both in the far East as well as in Europe, the, millions of people, even tens of millions of people that were die, that, that died. There at least was the hope some stability. And I don't know that we have that today. And even if we do, I don't know that there are a lot of people. Who feel that way, that there is someone of stature with a desire for stability that is ready to make peace. And Eric Hobbs mom, and I'm gonna end it at, this point, British historian called The Period Between the Two Wars. The [00:06:00] age of anxiety, and we know, from our polling and that of others, anxiety levels are at record highs.

[00:06:10] And the younger you get, the anxiety levels are, very high. is this 1939 all over again or am I overstating the possibility?

[00:06:25] Jeremy Zogby: no, you're not overstating the, it, as far as I'm concerned. You're not. I think I remember within a year ago saying, we're already in World War iii. We just don't know it. when you look back and you read on history, you reading a textbook or you're reading books, and historians are, as time moves forward after an event is, concluded, the [00:07:00] names start coming out, what to call it.

[00:07:01] It and then people try to explain what happened. But if you do a little mental exercise and you, try to remove yourself from that, and you imagine yourself looking back on 2025 from 2035, from the mindset of a historian, it's pretty clear now. remember the great saying by Mark Twain, that history.

[00:07:26] it doesn't repeat itself. It, rhymes. I, think he was the one that said that. Others have said it too. and, the other thing to keep in mind is, the great debate in, history as far as I'm concerned, the great debate is, time linear or is it seasonal? I, don't see how it's not seasonal.

[00:07:50] it, we follow a calendar year with four seasons. If you go to 20, 50, a hundred years, you're gonna see cycles. And so I agree [00:08:00] with you, I, if you're even stating it, but I would say that we are in something like a major global conflict. it's not hard to imagine why. the, conclusion of World War I, the seeds were already sown for World War ii and The con, if you go to the conclusion of World War ii, it was at Yalta, which is in Ukraine, and the major powers were Russia in the United States. And I feel like we've come full circle that those seeds were planted in 1945 and they've been sprouting. Now what is driving it now? I do. I do have to make a couple comments and.

[00:08:47] I'm not, like chastising you or anything, but I do find it very interesting or peculiar. and this is very much a part of your generation. So many people in your [00:09:00] age group still refer to Russia interchangeably as the Soviet Union. I don't think that's even the case. the other interesting thing I, noticed is that you listed countries that are expansionists and I don't think you would disagree with me.

[00:09:16] But the mother of all expansionist countries is the United States. There is no country that has waged wars, toppled governments, and sewn seeds of chaos more than this country. It's un, it's a, horrible, unfortunate thing, but the neoconservative ideology likes to project what I just described onto other people.

[00:09:41] That, it's the Chinese, it's the Russians. and look, I don't, I operate from the standpoint that if you're a politician or you're a billionaire politician, or you're a multimillionaire politician, 9.7 or eight or nine times outta 10, you're probably vastly [00:10:00] corrupt. But that doesn't necessarily mean.

[00:10:03] That it gives the United States any moral high ground to say that it's all Putin. I demonstrated this in the last podcast about the Rand Corporation's paper, which was the playbook. If you go to the RAND Corporation's paper, extending an overbalancing. Russia, and you look at the key section on providing lethal aid in Ukrainian, in, in Ukraine.

[00:10:30] Now the Rand Corporation isn't, gonna come out and call it how it is, but if you read between the lines on that, what they're saying is that let's us, the United States provide lethal aid to Kiev towards who for what the lethal aid is for Kiev. To attack the eastern part of Russia. Why is the United States engaging and weaponizing [00:11:00] Kiev to attack ethnic Russians in East Ukraine?

[00:11:04] That's a very basic question. Just ask yourself why that is. There's only one reason to overextend and unbalance Russia to draw them into a conflict and then have the media say that, oh, look, it's the big bad Russian bear. When in all actuality, Russia was on the defense. One other thing I'm gonna say is, and I saw this when I lived in the Czech Republic, the United States and the neocons were really starting to dig their claws into the Czech Republic when I was there.

[00:11:39] and there was a historic, conference called the Bucharest Summit, and on day one in Bucharest. Romania, the United States and, EU members and aspiring EU members met and what was on the agenda? Bring Ukraine into NATO [00:12:00] and into the European Union. They were talking about this back in 2008 after already bringing in over a dozen nations into nato, which broke the promise that HW made not one inch into.

[00:12:13] The former Soviet territory, they broke the promise under HW Clinton and then Bush and here was Putin in 2008. He shows up on day two and he says, Ukraine is the red line. You will not go and take Ukraine and bring it into nato. He said he warned people 17 years ago, this is where I will draw the line.

[00:12:39] So we forget that. So the Russian bear has been poked, but as you pointed out, you've got Taiwan. I won't get into that, the naturally the Chinese wants to expand its sphere of influence in the South China Sea. I don't really find that too surprising, but as you pointed out, [00:13:00] then there's Israel and and I am convinced that Israel is going to launch another attack, probably.

[00:13:09] This fall. I don't think that what we saw in June was just a one and done. I think both sides are getting ready, and that one I don't think is gonna look anything like the last. I think the other one was a test run. So the last thing I'll say, all of this coincides with the Japanese bond market collapsing, the US bond market up in the tizzy, a massive bubble.

[00:13:36] Sam Altman of Open AI said that AI is in a bubble. The Dow Jones is at 44,000 Wars seem to coincide with economic contractions. Look at World War ii, the crash of 29 into 32, a World Depression. That was the beginning of World War ii. Look [00:14:00] at World War I, there were panics, financial panics leading up to World War I.

[00:14:05] It also coincides with militarization, with the debasement of currencies. And unfortunately, I'm afraid that the masters of the universe, profit off of these wars and, basically, see the opportunity for a new kind of order. And, I, don't like that, but that's unfortunately the way it is.

[00:14:31] And so the, second, the real actual last thing I'll say is, there, there's a reason that I don't get my information from journalists on this stuff because journalists have become ideologues. I prefer to get my information about geopolitics from investors because investors, their skin in the game is financial, so they're more likely to be objective and.

[00:14:57] Somebody like Martin Armstrong, whose [00:15:00] central bankers around the world tap his intelligence. He built a computer model called Socrates, and he's saying that his computer model is saying that there's a hundred percent guarantee that there's going to be a global war. I think within a year.

[00:15:18] John Zogby: Okay, didn't just help me. I'm one of those anxiety written America and say, the things that troubles me, and I hinted at it in the, beginning, that strenuous efforts were made to create a global order. United Nations of Bretton Woods, Geneva protocols, rules of Engagement and the International Criminal Court. Obviously these are flawed. the United Nations, the Security Council, there's veto power, and the veto power is [00:16:00] exercised by the major powers, more notably the United States than any of the other, any of the other powers. the United States is not a part, does not recognize, nor does Israel, the legitimacy of the international criminal court.

[00:16:17] We never joined. You mentioned rules of engagement. The problem is there are no workable rules of engagement. if there were then, Putin would be on trial as a war, criminal, Netanyahu would be on trial and as generals, as war criminals, and we'd be able to re resolve these sorts of things. in a, global fashion. But these are, we've talked so many times over the five years, almost six years now, that we've been doing this podcast about the crumbling [00:17:00] of those institutions that are supposed to promise us safety and security, and this is what we mean. they're not fulfilling a sense of safety and security, and that's a broader context for what I mentioned earlier, the lack of, statesmen, and women who can step in and rally, global public opinion or large chunks of public opinion. for God's sakes, you have. The Prime Minister of Israel, who one of his motivations for aggressiveness, in, in keeping his coalition is that he stays out of prison for being a common alleged criminal. have president of the United States who has been convicted and who's, of several. crimes and civil [00:18:00] actions and has been fined and, has courts seemingly in his pocket now.

[00:18:08] We just had one ruling on fraud, against him that was overturned by an appeals court. In other words, the mechanisms that we relied on for the last. 75 or 80 years, don't work. And that's particularly troubling. So if we feel we're in 1939 and I think we both have that ominous sense, steps to stop it, that's what bothers the hell out of me.

[00:18:43] Jeremy Zogby: I, there is hope. but before I get there, I have to be honest, I'm a little bit troubled by. And, look, we're not, turning this into hostility. we're, I think we're demonstrating [00:19:00] for our listeners how you and I can talk about these, very important issues that are gonna have an impact on billions of people.

[00:19:08] But I'm, troubled that, that of course, you and I agree, Netanya was a war criminal, but how, is there this selective memory that all of a sudden one day. Ukraine just became a, war that Russia attacked. When we know that the United States has been providing lethal aid to Zelensky, even before Zelensky to bomb the eastern provinces of their own country, and the United States were providing the weaponry.

[00:19:46] Why wouldn't Zelensky be a war criminal? Why is he a hero?

[00:19:52] John Zogby: There's gotta be a reckoning there. I don't disagree you. I, guess there's a [00:20:00] limitation on how many war criminals I can list

[00:20:03] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah,

[00:20:03] John Zogby: podcast. He's not a good guy.

[00:20:06] Jeremy Zogby: he's a terrible guy. He's a terrible person and, he's a clown. He's an absolute, he was a comedian before. Just look at some of the acts that he used to, do before live audiences on television. he was very shameless. But anyway, let's not, that's not the point. The other thing is, like there, there are any number of modern US presidents that also could be war criminals, but, here's the hope.

[00:20:34] Okay? Because I want to get to that. I remember in 2013. Do you remember when Putin wrote, an op-ed to the New York Times, because Obama drew this red line over Syria

[00:20:49] John Zogby: Yes.

[00:20:50] Jeremy Zogby: and the United States meddling in Syria has been very bad. That's been, that's also been a very big problem, and that was directed at [00:21:00] Russia.

[00:21:00] But that's another discussion. But if you take my word for it, that the United States were not good guys in, in aiding the moderate rebels. Just think of the Orwellian terminology. Moderate rebels. that's laughable. Anyway, they were terrorists and they were tied to Al-Qaeda, but that was to knock out Bashar al-Assad, which was to Checkmate Russia.

[00:21:22] Who that was Russia's, ally in the Middle East. But anyway, Putin saw this happening and that was, further, offense towards Russia. And Putin wrote this op-ed, and, we were like. One minute before midnight to go to war with Russia, and all of a sudden I thought it was a miracle.

[00:21:48] People got on their phones and they started calling their congressmen and their congresswomen, and they started calling their senators and they said, stop it. Do not draw a red line. Do [00:22:00] not engage in another war. And the war went away and the same thing could happen. it's like John Lennon. War is over.

[00:22:10] If you want it to be, put down the Instagram, put down the Twitter, put down Facebook. Start calling your congressmen and women. Stop. Tell them to stop providing lethal aid to Israel, to Ukraine, and let's not poke the bears. Let's figure out how we can train. Because China, although it's maybe on the precipice of taking Taiwan, that's none of our business.

[00:22:40] Russia isn't building military bases all over the world. The United States is what, 170 military bases. So anyway, if we wanna really stop it enough, people call their congressmen and women say, we'll vote you out, and things will change real fast.

[00:22:58] John Zogby: One re [00:23:00] brief comment about the, was nobody to support in Syria. As bad as Bashar ASID was, there was nobody, there was no Charles Dega waiting in the wings, to step in and stabilize Syria. And that was a real mistake on the part of, Obama to draw. In fact, I cringed. he drew a red line in the sand, were we going to do to stabilize that situation? I'm gonna let you then have the last word about this. discussion.

[00:23:35] Jeremy Zogby: Yeah,

[00:23:35] John Zogby: and we, you, and I'll talk in five minutes, but we'll talk together next week.

[00:23:40] Jeremy Zogby: yeah, no, I, don't have anything other to say than to get the word out, especially because we gave an action item. this was a deep dive into historical data. And this shows you, I think a lot of people know the, relevance of history. [00:24:00] but this was a, real deep dive into historical data to, to show how it still lives with us at this moment.

[00:24:10] And I, like the fact that we, talked about what could be done and why. It just doesn't have to be doom and gloom. There actually could be something done as I demonstrated. So share the word, about this particular episode. And, I think that we only good can come from that.

[00:24:31] John Zogby: Take care.

[00:24:33] Jeremy Zogby: Have a good weekend.

[00:24:34] John Zogby: You too.

[00:24:35]