Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] what happened over the last week or two, think has the potential be, something that becomes, I don't want to say a point of no return, but a change in the direction.

John Zogby: we've got some details now about independence and, who they are and what they could mean. these numbers that I related among independents are not comforting, really for either party.

as we're going into the election, 61% of the electorate view the Democratic party, unfavorably only one third view them favorably. That is by far the lowest marks that the Democratic Party has ever gotten.

Jeremy Zogby: if both parties don't learn to, humanize, thing goes off the rails and the political culture continues to devolve.

John Zogby: it's [00:01:00] Friday and that means another edition of real polling in real Time with Zogby. I'm here. As always, I'm John and. My son managing partner Jeremy, how are you doing this week?

Jeremy Zogby: I am doing okay. How about you?

John Zogby: I'm doing okay. Troubled, like a lot of people are and need to address something before we get into our major topic kind of kicking off the 2025 elections and the 2026 elections and that is that there was a terrible tragedy.

This week, the assassination of, Charlie Kirk. And I think that folks need to keep reminding themselves that we're talking about a husband, a father, a son, a fellow citizen, fellow human being, not the other, [00:02:00] and not someone completely and totally. Defined in his life as a politician. And I really fear that in addition to this continuing, gun violence that we have in this country, there was a school shooting the very same day.

There's a school shooting the week before. that, Congress has come unglued. Democrats and Republicans, in a kind of horrific way, yelling and screaming at each other. Certainly not most, many, definitely not all members of Congress, but something is getting lost here.

We lost a human being tragically. I'm not even gonna address agreement or disagreement, of [00:03:00] his views. 'cause that really isn't even the issue and I'm afraid it's already become, the issue. And I'm troubled by that. And for my part, I extend my condolences to his wife, to his children, to his family at large.

Do you wanna comment on that or shall we just jump right in?

Jeremy Zogby: I believe you have some. polling data from our recent survey, and if you'd go over that, because I don't see this in isolation,

John Zogby: All right.

Jeremy Zogby: I'd like to weave this recent tragedy into what we're looking at as, data that looks forward to the coming elections

John Zogby: Okay.

Jeremy Zogby: landscape.

John Zogby: Alright, that's, that sounds like a plan. because of you to a great degree. We have been focusing a lot on independence, and I go back a long [00:04:00] ways, who are independent, what They're an eclectic group of people coming from all different directions, including people who register as independent, thinking that they won't be bothered by either of the two parties.

But we've got some details now about independence and who they are and what they could mean. So here's just some top line results here that I think are important. I think it's important to know, first of all, we ask the independents, have you ever been a Democrat or a Republican? 19% said they had been Democrat.

14% said they'd been Republican. A quarter said they'd been both, but almost half. 44% said that they had never been either a Democrat or a Republican. So number two, why haven't you identified as a Democrat or a Republican? the [00:05:00] biggest answer was one quarter. Neither represents my beliefs or values.

Followed by the 20% who said that both parties are ineffective. 16% said that both are too extreme. And then 13% each said both are hopelessly corrupt or there's little difference between the two. So we wanted to think positively. We ask these independents, what are the two major strengths of the Democratic party?

The number one answer, 28% said that the party represents and fights for the working class, followed closely by the 27% who said it values social and racial justice. Little bit down the line, 19% said that it demonstrates strong passion for economic equality and then [00:06:00] and so on, but among moderates. Among the independents, it was the same lineup, but 33% of moderates said they felt the Democrat's Strength was the, it represents and fights the working class 20 for the working class, 26%.

It values social and racial justice. So how about the GOP? what are the two major strengths of the GOP? The first at 28%. Said that they put Americans first, the second at 21%. They prioritize business. The third at they focus on pride over shame. Regarding US History 19% and then 17% said that they're effective at reducing crime.

That was the same lineup among moderates as well. Putting [00:07:00] America first, prioritizing business, focusing on pride over shame in American history and, effective at reducing crime. What are the major weaknesses of the Democratic party? 27%. This was a tie for, first, it focuses more on attacking Trump than projecting.

A positive outlook at 20. Also, at 27%, it's too woke. Thirdly, at 17%, it's too elitist. That was the same among moderates. It focuses too much on Trump. It's too woke, too elitist. And finally then, what's the major weakness of the Republican Party? Number one at 25% too offensive and degrading in its politics at [00:08:00] 23% do not care about the average voter 18%.

Too much confusion. No clarity In governance. Also, at 18%, they over promise and undeliver.

I think that's a kind of stark reality for both parties, and I will just end this first part by saying what a confusing year we're going into. On one hand, Democrats are given right at this moment, a 68% chance. Of regaining the House of Representatives. They lead in the Congressional generic by, but not by too much, and perhaps more than anything else, there have been 11 local, state or congressional elections, all of which won by Democrats and in the two bellwether races in the [00:09:00] next couple of months, New Jersey and Virginia Democrats lead.

Both, relatively handsomely. On the other hand, final point, as we're going into the election, 61% of the electorate view the Democratic party, unfavorably only one third view them favorably. That is by far the lowest marks that the Democratic Party has ever gotten. That's it.

Jeremy Zogby: So I'm trying to reconcile and fit all of this into what happened over the last week or two, what happened over the last week or two, think has the potential be, something that becomes, I don't want to say a point of no [00:10:00] return, but a change in the direction. That could be for the worse or for the better.

and I don't know, the first thing I have to say is it's, I view it as beyond gun violence, because just several days before a Ukrainian refugee had been stabbed in the neck the, really troubling, Trend in, in, the violence is, not only that you had the assassination of somebody who was prominent in the field of politics and, a voice for the burgeoning, growing young, conservative movement, but also that this, Ukrainian refugee had been murdered and both were available graphically to see. widely throughout the [00:11:00] media, not just on social media, but even, in, on news platforms. And so there's this trend towards graphic violence that's available in an ev, potentially in Everly, increasing violent culture. and so what does that do? How does, how do political parties position themselves? bring this, the, voters and, the country back to reality. Charlie Kirk was, and I had only seen probably a half dozen of, videos of what he did, but he had a, his whole thing was going to college campuses and talking to the other side and debating them and showing his, prowess in, in debate skills. his different interpretation of why the western [00:12:00] culture and American, system was, something, to, champion and be proud of over, what you talked about how more people increasingly are seeing the democratic party is too woke. how the, how democratic politicians respond to this and how. Republican politicians, in the upcoming national elections respond to this is going to be key. We see that crime and the sense of feeling safe is always in the background. that's always something that, that's a, big issue atop o issue, recently it has fallen in comparison to inflation and the cost of living. and immigration and some others, but I have a sense that maybe it, it, starts to, to creep back in and the democrats and the notion of what do they [00:13:00] do about woke is, like how does, that's clearly not connecting with people and, making voters' lives better. And so they, I, the Democratic party has to ask themselves what is the end? if we uphold the value, the values that fall under belief system, what is our vision and where are we trying to get to and how do we communicate what that looks like? Because it's not very clear, because a lot of people think, Hey, women are increasingly entering the workforce and they're increasingly competitive.

they've overtaken men, young men in universities. we see, kinds of new opportunities for people who are other than white America's, increasingly diverse, America's, increasingly, non-white [00:14:00] biracial coming from, families. So what is the end, right? and so I, see. Republicans with, the ability to, address crime and safety front and center going in into these national elections, and the Democrats struggling with, where do we wanna take this country and what does that look like and how do we know we'll have achieved it? And so I, think that what happened in the last two weeks really calls that into question is for both parties, what is the exact clear vision? And how do we communicate it to voters and how do we make sure that the whole thing doesn't go off the rails?

John Zogby: So there's a new poll out by Gallup, and what it shows is, a level of pessimism that we really haven't seen in a long time, but also [00:15:00] a high level of disagreement on the. President Trump and the perception that he's centralizing even usurping power in the executive branch for that matter. In the White House itself, there's a real discomfort over, the option of battling crime by Federalizing National Guard sending in US troops.

It just reported this is Friday. Just reported overnight that Memphis is next after Chicago. to be sure there are some people who favor that, but there are a lot of people who don't and who are afraid. and so we are getting into bigger and broader issues of our rights in a balancing one. The second [00:16:00] Amendment, versus.

Balancing that with another, the right to assemble, the right to speak, both are in danger. I would say the freedom of speech, of assembly, right of religious choice, over a woman to decide the fate and the health of her own body. All those are under. A serious challenge, the projection of the loss of American rights onto the rest of the world.

Are we still a beacon? Whether we're talking about military power or not? We're talking about soft power and the chief thing. That, America has always been able to beam to the rest of the world is this is what a democracy [00:17:00] looks like. This is what a democracy can look like. And I fear that sense, is going and close to gone, in, most instances.

I agree with you. your first comment. was that we're at a tipping point. we are at a tipping point. I don't know which way it's gonna go, and but I also agree with you that these numbers that I related among independents are not comforting, really for either party. That's why I don't know what's gonna happen.

it seems that the best thing. That the two parties have going for each other is each other. and that's not it. Of course, people should be worried about the degrading politics [00:18:00] that, you know, that they share about both parties. But here, one in four independents said that's a major weakness of the Republican Party.

By the same token, we should be worried. That, while the Democrats get high marks for caring about the middle class and caring about, social and racial justice, they're seen as too woke. And that has been a threat to freedom of speech. And in fact, one can draw a straight line between the shouting down.

Of people on our campuses, and then ultimately the shooting of someone that is disagreed with on a college campus. That's very troubling to me. and so I guess [00:19:00] we, we, we do, did what we're supposed to do. We shared some real numbers and we've shared our commentary. Why don't you get the last word in, but this is,

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: week. Not a happy week.

Jeremy Zogby: I think you helped me 'cause there was a lot of moving parts and there was a lot of ground covered and I think you helped me understand that. it, if, both parties don't learn to humanize, thing goes off the rails and the political culture continues to devolve. So it, it's awful to say that a horrific death or a string of horrific deaths becomes, I, hate to, to use the, term silver lining, but it becomes the chance for both parties to realize we have to humanize. [00:20:00] And it's really that simple, because if they don't, it doesn't get better.

John Zogby: I recall as a teacher and a graduate student, the Brook Sumner incident of 1856, where there was a debate on slavery in Congress and Charles Sumner a prominent. Radical Republican from Massachusetts, insulted an elderly gentleman who was the senator from South Carolina and the elderly gentleman's nephew, who was a member of the house, came in and beat Charles Sumner with a cane.

Sumner almost died, but later on became a member of Lincoln's cabinet. So he survived. But the Brooks Sumner incident was a turning point on how the [00:21:00] debate had gone from terrible to even worse, and within four years there was a civil war. I had b, C on when I learned about the Kirk assassination.

And I caught just in time a prominent progressive Democrat on the steps of the Capitol, talking only about his disagreements with Kirk, which are many, and given mine too, and talking about gun policy. And I was thinking, where is your heart, man?

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. and to be, fair, it's, coming from both ends.

John Zogby: Both ends.

Jeremy Zogby: we have the president who are, is it likely that it was somebody on the left? Probably, but we don't know yet.

John Zogby: We don't.

Jeremy Zogby: we don't know. stoke the flames, but to your point, this is where ideology [00:22:00] truly has become. It's funny, mark said that religion was the opiate, the opioid of man, of humankind. I'm pretty certain that ideology is because look what it does. You No matter how horrific the death and death is probably one of the most horrific, To, to my knowledge that was ever caught on video up there with JFK and for people then to just focus on their political disagreements when basically eulogizing, terrible.

So why don't we just,

John Zogby: Yeah, let's end it there and hopefully, maybe a tad more upbeat next week. Thanks. I'll talk to you soon.

Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Take care.

John Zogby: You too. Bye-bye.

[00:23:00]