Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] what we showed last month was Trump's overall approval rating, went underwater by 11 points. 43% of voters approved 54 disapproved. what surprised you and what, may surprise others, Trump today has bumped up

The nonstop coverage of the Epstein story. appears to have worn off.

John Zogby: Democrats need an agenda, which leads to number two, which is who are the Democrats? did some former Democrats, we asked, why did they leave the party?

And a lot of them, it was a tie, said either the party was too woke that, it's only agenda was going after Donald Trump.

John Zogby: It's Wednesday and [00:01:00] this is a special edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. And I'm John and somewhere in captivity it looks like. Is my son Jeremy, an undisclosed location. how are you doing today,

Jeremy Zogby: Oh, I'm doing fine. Despite, what you just laid out.

John Zogby: Okay, lay out some real polling in real time 'cause we just, this is hot off the press. We, just finished this nationwide poll of a thousand plus likely voters. And, I'm gonna let you lay it out and then I'm gonna comment, but let's just say, it's a good practice that I've learned in. five decades of doing this to never go in with pre assumptions as to what you're gonna find. So I'm gonna admit that maybe I was a little surprised by the numbers. And so essentially, why don't you roll with it? how's our president [00:02:00] doing?

Jeremy Zogby: he's a little bit, he's underwater. There's no denying that. But I think the, important thing to remember is this far into the game, that is, a looking at almost nine months since, inauguration, this is what tends to happen. at least as far back as I can remember, you get past the first a hundred days and then the support starts falling off.

you start to see some buyer's remorse, but, the whole Epstein situation, we were in the eye of the storm last month and voters were being bombarded with a character that maybe a good amount of voters were familiar with, but probably have forgotten because he wasn't so prominently in the news.

And, that was just 24 7. And what we showed last [00:03:00] month was Trump's overall approval rating, went underwater by 11 points. 43% of voters approved 54 disapproved. I do believe a considerable amount of that was because of the Epstein story, although we can't rule out. There could have been some Trump fatigue setting in, but to get to your point as to what surprised you and what, may surprise others, Trump today has bumped up with an overall approval rating of, 46 percentage points.

52 disapproval, that's underwater. Six. so from 11 underwater to six. He's had a bounce. Let's drill down into some key issues. key issues as for the voters and key issues for, not just Republicans, but all politicians. the economy. [00:04:00] last month Trump was underwater 13 percentage points. Today he's nine percentage points underwater.

44 approve. 53 disapprove immigration. His signature issue for the first time we saw him. Fall below 50%, although he was net positive, one point 49 approving last month, 48 disapproving, he's bumped back up to above 50 and he's net positive for percentage points. All of this indicates to me, I'll, get to one other number.

Actually proud versus ashamed. That was underwater. 15 percentage points. there, there were, Far greater, voters that said they were ashamed of him. And again, I do think that was because of the nonstop coverage of the Epstein story. But today he's bounced, back up closer to 40%. He's still in a deficit.

All of this tells me [00:05:00] that story appears to have worn off. We'll go, we'll get to some issues and then, I'll give my observations and, insights what this all means today. No surprise, inflation is still the top concern. It's still the top issue that's gonna drive voters to the polls and decide who they will vote for.

By and far and away. 43% of voters, almost half of voters say it's the cost of living. It's inflation that determines their vote. In a national election, what has surprised me, and I've been talking about this for the past few months, I've said over the last few months to watch for this sleeper issue.

I think we dedicated a podcast to it. what has taken the number two spot is American's Health and the state of healthcare, 22% cited that as a deciding issue in, their vote. The [00:06:00] last two, three rounds, it was number three. It's now taken the number two, spot number three is immigration at 21%, not far away, still very prominent.

crime at 18%. that's 18% of voters, almost a fifth of voters who say that's a top issue. And then, fighting government corruption. Now, here's where things get interesting. We take each of those issues and we ask which party is poised better to handle or deals with them better? And Republicans score better on four of the five.

The only one that they don't get is, health and the state of health voters say Democrats are better poised to deal with that, but the cost of living, immigration, crime and fighting govern government corruption. Voters say the Republicans handle those issues better. But this, I would say. Because the Republicans have RFK Junior, leading the ship, at HHS and [00:07:00] he and the Maha movement, that's their signature issue dealing with chronic illnesses and diseases and trying to get to the culprit of it and trying to change the culture so that it's not so much treating the symptoms, but examining what are the root causes in the explosion of the disease.

And so I wouldn't rule the Republicans out. On that one. and so to bring this full circle and, just to say what has happened last month, a lot of people may have perceived, and, even I thought Trump was, against the coroner. and I raised the question, is he's against the coron.

We know that he's very comfortable in these, that position and he's, the Teflon don, they call him. but I really wondered was this going to take him out? And yes, he has lost support from key groups. Those in their late twenties and early thirties Hispanics. Those are just too off the top of my [00:08:00] head.

But here we've seen him weather the storm. And this is what I think is the big takeaway. I think the Democrats, put too much into this issue. I think the problem was, and this is this, their preference, this is their kind of preferred move and strategy in fighting Trump and the MAGA movement is they go all in on a scandal and it signals the me the media that's friendly to the Democrats, a good deal of the national media to, to just drone the story and then eventually it just wears off.

And so I think. What the Democrats have done is they've weakened their position when in fact they should have recalibrated and they should have focused more on a better vision and a better alternative as opposed to just the same old, we [00:09:00] got you Trump. We got you Trump. This is a major scandal and we know that this scandal has infected both parties and I think voters, by and large are aware of that.

John Zogby: Okay, I'm gonna wing it, and disagree with you somewhat, but, in, no special order, just by way of, a response. one, as far as the president is concerned at 46%, that is not an impeachable president. we have seen that, we saw that actually with Bill Clinton, in the fifties, and yet the republicans still attempting to impeach him Trump won, the first, Term of, Donald Trump still polling the low forties politically, it's not viable. and the, makeup of Congress, simply not viable. [00:10:00] And so that's number one. That's gotta be taken off the table. Democrats need an agenda, which leads to number two, which is who are the Democrats? One of the things that we should note is that while this poll is certainly not good news for Donald Trump, in fact, there were little details I think that I, wanna share. One is that his numbers among Hispanics are where typically. a Republican is 35% approval, 63% disapproval. That's some real movement downward there.

Couple of other instances too, he's really taken a beating, women as well. But still what needs to be noted is that the Democrats are not doing well, as you pointed out. Who's better at handling issues? Democrats lose on, out of five. But it isn't just that, did some former [00:11:00] Democrats, we asked, why did they leave the party?

And a lot of them, it was a tie, said either the party was too woke that, it's only agenda was going after Donald Trump. That is not an agenda for victory. And so that leads to the third point, which is. Who are Democrats? Are they going to be an establishment traditional party that is the loyal opposition that bridges a gap between. majority party and then seeks and gets victory, or are they going to have come forward with a progressive agenda as you see, in New York City and in Minneapolis and in, some local races, which on one hand could spell victory for its clarity. [00:12:00] With voters, on the other hand, could paint Democrats into a corner, much like what happened in the early 1970s, with George McGovern and the Progressive movement.

Then these are big questions that are unanswerable until the dust settles. Now, in our poll, in addition to the president, we polled the traditional generic ballot. which candidate will you vote for in your local congressional race? We have, I believe, the Democrats leading by one percentage point. However, as we've learned over many years of doing this, the way things are structured, nationally, national vote. Democrats need to be leading by about four or five percentage points in order to have that spell into winning seats. They're not [00:13:00] there yet. And so this is, a mixed bag a conundrum now in terms of making any projections. For 2026 now, we have been looking at, and the press has been reporting local races. We're all gonna be looking in a couple of months at Virginia right. And New Jersey and some ballot measures to see if those, spell out signals as they often do, as to what'll happen next year. But right now, We just simply don't know.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I would just add to that, what was interesting and, as you laid out that this is the generic, congressional generic ballot question is just what it is. It's generic. [00:14:00] While on the one hand it shows, Democrats with a one point lead. I wanted to follow up with a question, who do voters think will actually win the midterms or control, gain, control of the house?

And then with that question, it a point and a half more, percentage point and a half more voters say that they actually think Republicans, all of which is to say, I think those two cancel each other out. And it's probably going to be tight, but the backdrop. Is going to be the issue of turnout in voter registration.

And I find it interesting that CNN and the New York Times, in the same week, last week, reported on those 30 states that have that data. And this is no surprise 'cause we saw this in, the turnout of the November election, the previous one that Democrats were bleeding. And so it doesn't look like [00:15:00] date.

They have made, or gained any ground, although there still are 20 states, to be fair, that we don't have data on that. But I do think there's something revealing and telling by the fact that CNN and the New York Times were reporting on that, and then to combine or fit, the other phenomenon that you talked about in terms of who are the Democrats.

are, they even soul searching? I, think it's pretty quite evident that they're not, that they're not figuring out how can we, position ourselves against MAGA or even any kind of Republican populism? Because I'm pretty sure when Donald Trump is no longer a factor in 2028, I don't think you're gonna go back to, the Bush type Republicans.

I think populism is here to stay. And it's very frustrating for Democrats because they just don't know really how to do it successfully. [00:16:00] Now they are like in the case of Mom Donny in New York, there is this burgeoning urban socialism. You also see it in Minneapolis with a, with another candidate. But we have to remember that those are large city phenomenons and you have to ask yourself, is that something that could really make its way to Iowa?

Is that really something that could go into the heartland? I could totally see it on the coastal large cities and some of the large cities in the Great Lakes, but when we're talking about the vastness of America, rural America, and suburban America, socialism is not something that's really going to be all that appealing, especially when it's tied to woke him and I think momani.

And the Minneapolis candidate Omar fte, weave that wokeness into it. The reason why I think Bernie Sanders was far more successful [00:17:00] in running as a socialist candidate is because he didn't really infuse that stuff into it. it was, really more of, I would say an authentic old leftist socialism that.

Communicated itself as caring about the everyday person, which the Democrats used to be, known for. And clearly they're no longer known as.

John Zogby: So I will just end by saying, the real story here, is. Number one that, the, as you pointed out, the Epstein story had legs, and while it was prominent in July, it hurt president. and then not so prominent in August that Mike Johnson, the speaker calling a recess. Trump's numbers bounced back a little bit. I would pay close attention to [00:18:00] this week and the upcoming weeks as, there's more testimony from, Epstein victims, and the issue becomes prominent again. I think president will take a bit of a beating on that. But meanwhile, on the other hand, we've gotta watch New York City very closely. Zoran Ani. Is likely, that's as far as I'm gonna go, but is more than likely, to win the race. That'd be, colossal collapse if he loses and loses against three criminals. actually, we'll see what that portends, for the Democrats going into, In, into 2026, will they congeal around a common agenda or will they do what they did in [00:19:00] 1972 and where the establishment, Democrats, the, the head of the heads of the labor movement, the mayors of big cities abandoned McGovern and actually in some instances endorsed Richard Nixon. what will the Democrats do? That's a question we're gonna keep asking, this was a good conversation.

Jeremy Zogby: yeah. let me just say that, if I didn't make it clear. Yeah. I do think, the Epstein story chipped away. At the support. I do think the story has legs, but I think that those legs, one of them is a Democrat leg and the other one is a Republican leg. And by virtue of that, I don't think it only hurts, the president.

I think it can also boomerang back and seriously damage the Democrats. [00:20:00] If Democrats and, Democratic leaning journalists continue to release information, the same kind of information will just be released in, return, and I, it's not really going to gain anything for the Democratic Party.

John Zogby: Okay. Have a good week.

Jeremy Zogby: Yep, you too.