Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] we know from our polling that taxes is the top issue. but so is crime.
John Zogby: One final thing about Jersey. there is a strong tradition.
Of last minute decision makers.
Jeremy Zogby: I think the broader implication of a Mamdani win, I think all but guarantees, an un unsuccessful administration in addressing affordability
John Zogby: It's Monday morning, bright and early, and this is another edition of Real polling in Real Time with Zogby. And I'm John Zogby, and as always I am with. My son and managing partner, Jeremy Zogby. How are you doing today?
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, good morning, dad. I'm doing fine. You.
John Zogby: I'm doing well. we had an election a year [00:01:00] ago, and a lot has happened in the last year and we have an election coming up very soon.
voters gonna be voting and in the odd number year after. presidential election. The world focuses the political world anyway, focuses on New Jersey. And, and Virginia, and those are bellwethers and they have proven to be bellwethers, in the past. So I thought maybe we'd talk a little bit, about Virginia and New Jersey.
Of course, the very big election in New York City. And then you have some fresh polling data, that you've extracted about, Changes and realignment, in, among various demographic groups. And we'll [00:02:00] end on that. But the topic, principle topic for the day right now are these, three major elections.
So let's start, first of all with Virginia. Virginia shocked the world four years ago. went from a Biden, and a good solid Biden victory in 2020. But by 2021, Virginia, which had moved from a purple state to Pretty solidly. Blue State went red, went, big time red with the election of Glen Jenkins.
I remember the education and the culture wars and even board of education, were principal issues and that, suburban moms had swung to the [00:03:00] right. but. Here we are four years after that. We have a Republican president who I might add one handsomely in, 2024, but Virginia, while a single digit race, is showing a fairly strong trend in the gubernatorial race, towards the Democrat.
span Barger, a representative span Barger, has, I don't know if you wanna say commanding lead, but a steady lead of five to seven points against the lieutenant, governor who is a conservative, Republican. And what's going on in, in Virginia? I think. It's about inflation. [00:04:00] I think it's about, Donald Trump.
I think it's about a typical history of Virginia. Oftentimes liking to reject whoever is in the White House and making a name for itself. Doing that. we've seen the polls fluctuate in the gubernatorial race a little bit. We have a whole separate issue in the attorney general race where a Republican now looks to be leading.
But I'm gonna suggest that, it's looking to me like a democratic victory. Not a big one, but a democratic victory in Virginia. And I will just leave Virginia by alerting. the, many folks that listen and watch this, that on election night, [00:05:00] take a look at the early results that come in.
And what you will see reliably is a buildup of a huge democratic margin. That's because the Northern Virginia suburbs, which are growing and liberal and have helped turn Virginia blue in many instances, their votes come in first and then slowly trickling in through the evening. You get the central Western Virginia rural, more traditionally southern vote coming in, and then the race, it becomes evened out.
Look for that early margin. and if it is, a, very substantial democratic margin, you're probably looking early at a, democratic victory. If the race is tighter coming in from those suburbs first, then look for that rural area, to [00:06:00] possibly make this a much tighter race in Virginia. Any thoughts?
Jeremy Zogby: I want to hear in, New Jersey
John Zogby: Boy. New Jersey's a good one. New Jersey's always a good one. I've been polling, New Jersey, not quite since I was wearing bell bottoms. but I've had a long history there. And,
Jeremy Zogby: of bell bottoms.
John Zogby: but so what you have is, Mickey, Cheryl. Congresswoman, former military Annapolis, Navy, running against Jack Chiarelli, who actually ran last time against the incumbent Phil Murphy, and surprised the world, I guess you could say.
That was a, Chiarelli lost, but, [00:07:00] it was only by three points. Much closer. Then folks anticipated a few comments about that. Again, you've got a bifurcated state, so you're gonna get the early votes coming in, in the Northeast urban coroner, one city after another, Hoboken, Jersey City, union City, then o over to Patterson.
Those are heavily, democratic and that should give, Mickey, Cheryl, a substantial margin, but then later on in the evening, you're gonna see the. the Jersey Shore and Southern, rural New Jersey. We're talking Vineland and, that area. You can see that vote, coming in and we'll have clues, early democratic margin and then tightening up.[00:08:00]
Now both candidates have made some dumb mistakes. Mickey Cheryl, has been accused by the Republicans of, having been involved, having information on a cheating scandal. She wasn't cheating, but she had information on those who were cheating at Annapolis. the Republicans thought that they were, going to make hay out of this, except that.
Somehow the Republicans were responsible for releasing what was supposed to be sealed documents, and it backfired, but in a strictly new jerseyan sort of way. what happened, is that Mickey Sheral was in, an Italian. Neighborhood in New Jersey [00:09:00] and somebody handed her some meatballs and said, these are authentic Italian meatballs.
They include three meats, veal, beef and pork. And she said, Ooh, pork. Who would put pork in meatballs? the New York Post of course, got a good ride on that one and we've gotta see that race is tightening up. A little bit. Chiarelli for his part was introduced at a rally by his chief Muslim, advisor, unpaid advisor and the Muslim guy went on to, talk some serious anti semetic.
talk and then introduced the Republican nominee. And the Republican nominee made no effort to repudiate or distance himself from those comments. And in the closing days [00:10:00] and what could be a tight race, these are the sorts of things that can tip the scale. One final thing about Jersey. there are, there is a strong tradition.
Of last minute decision makers. I guess because the campaigns are so negative that, People genuinely don't know if they're even gonna bother voting, but there usually you see some swings taking place. That's why a lot of other pollsters have gotten New Jersey wrong over the years because they didn't continue polling.
They stopped a week before, or three or four days before. Right now we're, looking at a lead. That, that the Democrat has, again, of anywhere from five to seven points, I suspect, that we may very well be [00:11:00] looking at a tighter race again, but I do believe we're probably looking at another, democratic victory.
And then I'll, wind up with New York. or do you wanna save that one?
Jeremy Zogby: I, yeah, let's save that one.
John Zogby: Go ahead.
Jeremy Zogby: my only comment about Virginia is, and I haven't looked at the numbers in a while, but 2016, Trump won Virginia pretty handsomely because of
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: vote. When. Very much in favor of, of Donald Trump swung towards Biden in 2020, I think it was 11 or 12 points,
John Zogby: Yes.
Jeremy Zogby: that Biden had won them. it, because I think COVID had a lot to do with that. and then within really the [00:12:00] first hundred days of the Biden administration, you started to see that swing away. First and foremost, driven by first wave of inflation that hit Americans in 2021 and then that intensified. and you're absolutely right, Virginia and particularly Loudoun County well was, the main theater of the culture wars and parents, showing up at the board and the FBI and then. the independence swung away from Biden by as much as they went towards him. so there was a massive collapse. And to your point, that's one of the mechanisms behind that swing back and forth. and it could very well play itself out again. I don't know. But with New Jersey, [00:13:00] the thing that I want to say. virtually every poll Cheryl ahead. Trafalgar is the only poll that I saw that came out last week that, that showed it Titan to, one point lead. But, hey, look, Trafalgar got it right in 2016. were one of the few, that did, it's one of those organizations that almost always is either gonna have the Republican ahead. very close. we know from our polling that taxes is the top issue. but so is crime. Okay? And when we ask who handles better or who is expected to handle better, of course no surprise that, most voters would say chiarelli, but surprisingly, [00:14:00] most voters. voters, noticeably more said that Cheryl would handle taxes better.
She was expected to handle taxes better. I think that there's a, something very interesting in that result by and large taxes tends to be something are perceived as handling better the average voter. So that tells me. right now that Cheryl has the momentum, but we're gonna go into the field
John Zogby: Yes.
Jeremy Zogby: we're, we did it, weeks ago and we're gonna follow up in a couple or a few days and really just see what's happened. What are you thinking about New York City? I, have some thoughts implications of that, but where were you headed with that?
John Zogby: it's hard [00:15:00] to see Zoran Mamdani, losing now. Not that's impossible. It certainly isn't. But he has some distinct advantages, he. He's riding a high double digit lead, anywhere from 15 to 20 points and holding. secondly, with Eric Adams dropping out of the race and endorsing Cuomo, that has not had a major impact in the Cuomo column at all.
thirdly, not only is Mamdani good on his feet. Addressing issues that really matter, to New Yorkers. But he has the benefit of now running against Andrew Cuomo controversial, and perhaps burned out, and Curtis Lewa [00:16:00] controversial and perhaps burned out. So we don't always get to pick our enemies. our, opponents, but he, picked some good opponents to be running against.
But I think the, what's happened here is that the opposition to Ani has congealed around the issue of Israel and around the issue of antisemitism. And that does not appear to be resonating with voters. That's not to say that New York is anti-Semitic or that New York is anti-Israel. It is to say that people care about inflation more.
They care about, affordability of rents, affordability of food, availability of transportation issues that Momani has, stuck with. Has, [00:17:00] has, not veered from, has not, compromised on, and I think in that sense, plus some natural, charisma that, you're seeing him not slip in the polls at all.
The bigger issue, I believe. Is his question of his ability to turn a winning voting coalition into a winning governing. Coalition and remember what they say about him is true. He's never really run anything except a campaign. He's never been the manager, the administrator of really anything. He's been a junior back.
Bencher, assemblyman and forces that are running against him in this campaign are gonna continue. To be holding his feet to the fire or worse, [00:18:00] should he be inaugurated mayor?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, there's a parallel the rise of Obama, an electric, an electrical figure. utilizing the digital politics. Obama revolutionized digital politics. Mom, Donny has now revolutionized politics. the thing about Israel and antisemitism, oh, ma Donny has sh shot to fame so quickly because of front and center addressing affordability, getting out of control in New York, that New York voters don't expect, ma. To really do anything about antisemitism or Israel, and he's the mayor of New York. Of course, New York is the seat of the [00:19:00] United Nations, but that's not on the mind of New York City voters. anything to do with Israel and antisemitism. I'm saying in the broader picture, it's a city that's falling apart and it's a charismatic young man. who has the appearance of what progressives want? this is a, an in international man, very charming person, a not of, a person of color and, very electrifying. And, but the really, the broader implications of this election and that what everybody is asking is what happens to the Democratic party. Assuming he's elected. And I go back to a comment that James CarVal made, early on in, in the Trump administration, I [00:20:00] think especially when they, the d the DNC, voted in David Hogg to lead the, executive level of the party. And Carville said, something like this is tantamount to a split in the party. you're basically, you're gonna have the urbanist party, the Socialist party, and, I think, I don't know if that's, I'm, I don't think that is necessarily going to happen. I think the broader implication of a Mamdani win, I think all but guarantees, in unsuccessful. mayor, an un unsuccessful administration in addressing affordability the kind of things that Ani is proposing I don't think are really going to work.
I don't think they're going to address, the chaos that is [00:21:00] going on in New York City. It's only going to exacerbate it. So if you agree with that, and I think that's very true. what happens the, Democratic party? they lose momentum going into the midterms? Do they lo lose momentum going into 2028?
I may be looking too far ahead, but I just don't see how a city that has spiraled out of control in terms of the cost of living and, and the crime. Is that all that's going to be addressed with, more or less sophomoric takes on the issues. don't think there's really much of a successful model anywhere in this country, for, for successfully implementing those kind of policies at the city level. So that's what, the, bigger picture is, what happens to the Democrats? Do they go into a national free fall? [00:22:00] the party split? How do they come back?
John Zogby: Too soon to tell. You said something very you, all of what you said was very interesting. But going back to one of the earlier points that you made, you talked about Barack Obama and Barack Obama. it was his time, it was his electricity, and. What he did was he raised expectations to, significant levels.
So much so that within a year and a half, the one word most associated with Barack Obama and his early presidency was disappointment, in fact, that he'd raised expectations to a point where no one. Could possibly have succeeded with that kind of agenda. Now he had the full force of his party behind him, the full force of, [00:23:00] of his movement.
and it was, a movement and a vision. In MA's case, it remains to be seen whether he can turn his charisma, from heading a movement. To heading a government.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
John Zogby: once he becomes the, the head of state and the chief administrator of New York, you've got Wall Street, you've got real estate, you've got ethnic groups.
You've got so many people who are going to be arrayed against him, an establishment. A raid against him and no predictions there except to say, boy will he have his work cut out for him
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. And, the infrastructure
John Zogby: and the infrastructure. Yeah,
Jeremy Zogby: and that, and scratching the surface just by talking about the port authority and [00:24:00] transportation.
There is a, bureaucracy in New York that, wow.
John Zogby: Wow. Yeah, let's leave it at, wow.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
John Zogby: So we'll be talking about some polling results the next time we're together, in New Jersey. And okay. Have a good few days until then.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Have a good week.