John Zogby: [00:00:00] I've never gotten New Jersey wrong ever. I've been doing it for years and years.
Jeremy Zogby: you and I have talked about. Is the same phenomenon of the buyer's remorse from the first year of the Trump administration, in which a lot of perception from a lot of voters, Trump has not delivered on his pro, promise to give stability, especially in the economy.
In fact, we just have what looks like more chaos
John Zogby: I think the upshot of today's, a referendum on Donald Trump
John Zogby: It's Tuesday and it's election day. And here's a special edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. Once again, I'm John Zogby here with my son Jer. And real polling in real time. We have some real polling don't we in New Jersey. and we're gonna talk about it, but we're also gonna talk about election day.
And [00:01:00] what we think we can expect. so why don't I start things off?
Alright, so first of all, we did a poll in New Jersey and what's unique about our poll is number one, I've never gotten New Jersey wrong ever. I've been doing it for years and years. In fact, sometimes we've been all alone out there and been the only ones that get it right.
And so our polling is a little different also because, everybody else, all the other pollsters released their polls, that were, completed by the 29th or 30th. We started on the 31st and took it right up until yesterday afternoon. So we kept the lights on longer, than anybody else to capture last minute trends.
And so there are a couple of polls showing that race. Between, Mikie, Sherrill, and Jack Ciattarelli as tightening up, but not [00:02:00] us. We actually have a widening lead. So why don't you just walk us through that a little bit and then we will comment on it. What do you have?
Jeremy Zogby: yeah, so I, I guess what I'll start with is going into it, as you mentioned, there was Atlas Intel. They had, Sherrill ahead by one, which is. What some people call virtually a dead heat, Then there was Emerson, a day or two before that also showed ahead by two. look at those two polls, which were the most recent showing, very tight race, but then there was Fox News, interestingly, that had Sherrill ahead by seven.
Now, when Fox News came out the same night, Hannity. Had Ciattarelli come on and was really pumping it up. All these poles are, showing that it's tightening up. And so a lot of people that, that I, I'm reading about and [00:03:00] talking to, had this expectation that Ciattarelli building on his base from 2021.
Now remember, in 2021 he only lost by three. Now of course, there's a lot of things that we can talk about, that was, I think essentially. of those things, not only included some buyer's remorse from the, Biden administration, New Jersey is uniquely, in the election cycle, one year after a new administration.
And so buyer's remorse complained of that. But I also think COVID, lockdowns and COVID mandates had really soured people. and hence why, one of the factors why Ciattarelli did so well. And so a lot of people expected he was gonna build on his base, and actually that did not happen. So what happened there?
as you and I have talked about. Is the same phenomenon of the buyer's remorse [00:04:00] from the first year of the Trump administration, in which a lot of perception from a lot of voters, Trump has not delivered on his pro, promise to give stability, especially in the economy. In fact, and the promise to end the forever wars.
In fact, we just have what looks like more chaos now. the broader sense of, what's going into this. When we look at the poll. Fir. First of all, we should, talk about the horse race. We have Sherrill, with 55% and Ciattarelli with 43, a 12 point lead Now, that's an outlier. and as you mentioned, we, entered later and stayed in longer, and we think that we caught the trend line a big break for Sherrill.
But what is pushing that? Is really just a few dynamics. The gender gap is fascinating. If you [00:05:00] look at Sherrill's command of the women vote, she leads by 27 percentage points. Now, you might expect jitter to really drive the, voters, but he's only leading men by three percentage points. So that kind of gives us a window into things.
Then I would take it to another demographic. Married voters non-married voters. Non-married voters being single voters divorced voters. and if you look at Sherrill's lead non-married voters, she's by 21 points Ciattarelli only has the married vote. By three percentage points.
And then one other layer to this are the independent voters who Sherrill in our poll, is leading, the independent vote by 12 percentage points. So you put those [00:06:00] three together and you have Sherrill who has massively excited the liberal vote. Women, obviously Democrats, non-married voters and independent voters. He, he has mobilized then rural voters and conservative voters, but not to the extent that you would need for a Republican, albeit, in what's by and large could still considered, fairly a blue state. just not gonna put him over the edge. And so that, that's what we're showing in our poll.
John Zogby: I would only add to that, that the numbers among Hispanics and blacks who are substantial size voting blocks in the state of New Jersey are not where. They've traditionally been, favorable to Democrats, but they're a whole lot more favorable to the Democrat in the race than, [00:07:00] what Kamala Harris produced in 2024.
So I think we're looking at, Hispanics at about 60% support for Mikie. She, a lot closer to where the Hispanics have traditionally been. And, and among blacks, 82% is the number that I recall seeing s supporting, Mikie Sherrill. And in the final analysis, I mean we may look, we may be dead wrong.
I don't think we are. I think the upshot of today's, a referendum on Donald Trump and, I think we're gonna be looking at reporting. Later tonight, early tomorrow. That a good day for the Democrats. Trump's job approval rating in both Virginia and in ours in New Jersey is very low. And not only overall, but on, on most issues.
And, [00:08:00] I think also that, what we're, seeing is that we may very well have a suite.
it looks Berger, the Democrat, Abigail Berger is pulling away a double digit lead in, in Virginia. it does look, anything can happen, of course, last minute, but it looks like among Donny victory in New York City, or at least whole lot more competitive than one would ever thought a democratic socialist.
could do in New York City. And then anything I have seen, it's very hard to pull referenda in California, but anything I have seen has Prop 50, which would allow for, redistricting in California, before it's due, is leading by 20 percentage points over the no vote. And [00:09:00] we'll be back to analyze what actually did happen, but I feel comfortable in suggesting that we've, we're probably gonna have a big Democratic night tonight.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, so I'll just leave it at that. tempted to go into some of the issues, but we can save that for the next time around.
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: covered, the basic trend line.
John Zogby: Okay. So we'll talk very soon.
Jeremy Zogby: Okay.
John Zogby: care.
Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Have a good one.