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squadcaster-4797_1_12-09-2025_102728: It's a Tuesday and it's another edition of real polling in real time with Zogby. I'm Jeremy Zogby, managing partner of John Zogby Strategies, and my father could not make it today. but we have a brand new pullout. This is our concluding poll of 2025.
We started in, late January and we've run a series of, national polls. we pivoted to the New Jersey elections. Of course. many of you saw that we were the among I, as far as I'm, as far as I know, the only to get that right. But since November in New Jersey. There's, a lot that's happened in the political landscape.
And so we went back into the field over the weekend to see where we are today, where we've come this year in [00:01:00] 2025. And of course the big news is going to be 2026. The midterms are gonna start heating up, and so where is the American electorate and all of that. So this is a really, forward-looking podcast, of the 2026 outlook.
Where the president stands, what the issues are, and voters. And so without further ado, we have to start off with President Donald Trump and his overall approval rating. today it stands at 46% of the electorate approve of Donald Trump's job in office. 52% disapprove. That's six percentage points underwater.
This is about where he's been. a majority who disapprove and then in the mid, almost high forties, approval. But we have to really zero in on that 52%. That's a psychological barrier that goes [00:02:00] from, effectively slim majority to more towards stronger majority. But we really get a clearer picture when we look at it.
the poll. When we look at voters by their party identification, no surprise, 74% of Democrats disapprove of Trump, 85% of Republicans approve. But this is one of the key takeaways, and we're gonna hear more and more about this. No surprise, the independent voter, when we ask independence. How they rate the President's overall job approval, 31% approve, 66% disapprove.
That's two to one of independents disapprove to approve. that's not good. I wanna mention something because one of my angles in all of [00:03:00] this, that I. track often and have for a while are the independent voters. And I noticed something a week ago when I was asked to host a conservative cable news show that was last Friday.
And, for the first time I heard the following language coming from conservative, Republican media. They said, quote that the president is bleeding. Independent voters. Of course, they picked that up from a New York Post article citing a poll. And so I believe the poll was from McLaughlin, John McLaughlin, which is Trump's pollster.
That's huge to admit that, it's very important as I go through the rest of these numbers to hold that in the back of your mind because once again, independents are, and often, Can be key in determining election outcomes. [00:04:00] So moving beyond the overall approval, let's look at a couple areas of strength that the president has.
immigration. He's above water, 50% approved, 45% disapprove. This is the overall voter voting, electorate crime. Another signature issue of the president, although above water, 49% approved 44. Percent disapprove. Do note that it has fallen below 50%, and that is important and that's important to watch for, tariffs.
The president is, very much underwater. 52% disapprove, 43% approved. That's a nine percentage deficit. Of course, not good numbers on the president's negotiating style regarding, diplomacy with world leaders, only 43% approve. 49% disapprove. And the [00:05:00] key here is why does this matter? does this really matter to, to, to the president?
a lot of people have become accustomed to the notion of the president. His executive orders, or as critics would say, his rule by decree. we've seen a lot of executive orders, we've seen a lot of, increase in the power of the executive branch, but all of this is coming to a head precisely because of how independent voters are moving away from Trump and the extent at which they are that, as I just noted.
Even conservative media had to acknowledge it. And, I had the opportunity to go on, with John McLaughlin, the pollster of, Donald Trump on Newsmax and discuss this, in greater detail, which you could look up if you, Google it. [00:06:00] but this is going to determine the midterm ground game as we enter 2026.
How Republicans strategize about which type of candidates they're gonna back, and the type of messaging, because it is going to have to come back to independence. And remember the last midterm cycle, there was this increasing notion, even in mainstream media and liberal media, that there was a red wave coming, but the red wave never came in 2022.
Neither party really performed very well, but what was key in preventing, that red wave from actually coming to fruition were independent voters who were turned off by the MAGA messaging, by those candidates running for Congress. And so we're gonna have to look at that dynamic as we go forward and make no mistake about it, a [00:07:00] lot of issues are going to continue.
To be important, that we're important in 2022, and that's where I wanna go straight to the top issues. That's one of my favorite questions to track is which of the following top issues or issues drives your decision in who you choose to vote for? No surprise inflation. Always tops the chart. And before we used the term inflation, it was jobs in the economy that was pre 2021.
so for the longest time, several years now, inflation has been the top issue. But I've noticed something, particularly concerning and, notable in the data, and I'll share that with you. When we ran. Our previous national poll, which was [00:08:00] late August, almost into September, 43% said that inflation was the, top issue that drove their decision and how they voted.
Today, that's shot up to 56% and here we are in December and I have to take note that movement on a question like that, which I've been paying attention to for years is. Is highly notable. it's it, and concerning. It could reflect a, an increasing awareness of the problem of inflation or put simply more people feeling the pinch.
And as we head into 2026, I have a sense like the transition from the year 21 to 2022. Inflation was the talk of the town everywhere from the bar, in the coffee shop, all the way to the bank. everyday [00:09:00] voters. The word inflation became a part of the everyday lexicon, and I am already seeing in the data that intensity increasing another issue, that the president is going to have to deal with and reconcile and.
Appeal to voters is the number two issue, which has been the number two issue for three months in a row. And that's America's health and the state of healthcare. Now, that's a double barrel issue because that goes back to the notion of chronic diseases that, how Americans view themselves as healthy or sick.
But at the same time, we have the word healthcare in there. And we have to really interpret that as coverage, which then gets into premiums, which then gets into the political messaging coming from the president, in terms of cuts to Medicare. [00:10:00] and so now America's Health and the state of healthcare in the number two spot months ago, the number two spot was immigration.
That's fallen to. To the fourth most important issue, fourth highest ranked issue health and healthcare has surged from 24% in July to 33%. Today we put those two together and what you're looking at is an affordability crisis. What happened in New Jersey that we were on top of and why? Mikey Cheryl was by far the more successful candidate.
Boiled down to affordability in a New Jersey context. In the New Jersey context, if we recall, that was property taxes and utility bills. But here across the country, it is generally the cost of living [00:11:00] inflation and the fear that people may lose coverage or have skyrocketing premiums. And make no mistake about it, these are the top issues on the minds of independent voters.
And let me give you this insight about in independent voters, why they're so important. They are the glue to this nation. Many observers of politics today look at the playing field in a binary sense. Democrat versus Republican, it's all over the media. Yes, I do see. focus on independent voters, but I do not see depth of their understanding.
It's what I consider myself to be a foremost expert in is the independent vote. The key thing to remember about the independent vote is that they're fluid. They're not picking a party today. They like to be unaffiliated today, [00:12:00] but a share of them can move towards one party or the other.
And when they are against you like they are today with the president, 66% disapprove of the president's job, that can be disastrous going into the midterms. And so the president is really just going to have to look. What the top two issues driving, voters today? What keeps 'em at night? In other words, keeps them up at night?
the type of candidates that the Republican National Party are going to run in the upcoming midterms and the effective messaging at convincing the independence that the Republican candidate is a better option than the Democrats. There's no way to escape this. This is going to be the most important dynamic when you put it all together going into 2026.
And, I'm gonna leave it at that [00:13:00] for today. There's more that we have in our poll, a lot more that we're gonna touch upon and we're gonna continue, through this month with the theme of Outlook for 2026. Thank you for listening. You can always reach me, jeremy@johnzabystrategies.com. if you haven't already subscribed to this podcast, you can find it on Apple Podcast.
You could search us on YouTube. We have a channel on YouTube. We're on Spotify, we're on SoundCloud, and even if you would like to have it delivered to your inbox, go to john zobe strategies.com. Click on the contact button. And, you could have your email added to our subscription list. And I hope you do that, and I hope you share this.
we'll see you again probably next week. Have a good one.
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