Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] I'm convinced that this was, A way to neutralize China, a way to, to weaken them

John Zogby: I, think nationwide, are still very much in the post-Vietnam war era, do we make things better in a short enough time period that the American people will accept it because by six months to a year, they won't

Jeremy Zogby: does China stand back as it loses access to a large amount of its oil? Probably not.

John Zogby: It's Friday, January 9th and it's another edition of real polling in real Time with Zogby. Once again, I'm John Zogby, the father, and there's Jeremy Zogby, the son. Hey, j.

Jeremy Zogby: Hey, how you doing dad?

John Zogby: am doing Okay. We're gonna jump right in because it's real polling in real time. That's exactly what we have. and in [00:01:00] fact, it's real polling in absolutely no time.

'cause you and I just saw these numbers about an hour ago 'cause we just finished the polling last night. Now there is so much to talk about. So many things going on. Very few of them. In fact, I can venture to say. Really not anything that's going on, very well or happily, but I wanna talk about Venezuela.

We did a poll of New York voters and yes, I know that New York is a blue state, but there are trend lines here and there are lessons. From this New York polling about Venezuela that, I'm really anxious to share that we're both anxious to share and talk about. And so let's begin. This was a poll of 844 likely voters.

It was done January 6th through January 8th. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4. And so [00:02:00] let's go. Donald Trump's military operation in Venezuela. Was it necessary that's what 31% of New Yorkers said, or did it go too far? 54% said it went too far. Now, the 31% is bolstered by two thirds of Republicans.

Virtually no democrats. Supporting it. But among independents, only 23% of independents said that it was necessary, and 58% of independents said it went too far. What about removing the hated Nicholas Maduro? we do have to understand that this is a repressive, corrupt fellow running a repressive corrupt regime.

40% said that they support it. Removing Maduro.[00:03:00]

But

Jeremy Zogby: again.

John Zogby: yeah, 40%

Jeremy Zogby: Okay.

John Zogby: said that they, support removing Maduro. 46% said that they opposed, but again, among independents, only 32% said that they supported removing Maduro, 49% opposed. So the president made it a point. On several occasions to talk about how the United States is going to rule, it's gonna govern, going to control Venezuela and kept it open.

Open-ended on a few occasions. He said, as long as it takes. And so we have some history on this as you well know J. 'cause you were there. Back, in after nine 11 we did some polling and we wondered if Americans supported a war on terror and they did over 90%. But then [00:04:00] what if the war on terror were to last six months, a year or two years?

We saw the support drop, and this is after the horrors. Of being attacked and 3000 plus people dead. So we wanted to know about us boots on the ground. Do Americans support that in Venezuela or not? And of course, this is New York voters. So overall, 33% of New York voters support boots on the ground to straighten out affairs in Venezuela.

53% oppose. But now here's the fly in the ointment. That's 33 support. 53 oppose. What if it takes one month support? 39% are more likely, 42% less likely. What if it takes three months? 33% are more likely, [00:05:00] 50% or less likely. What if it takes six months? 28% are more likely, 56% are less likely. And finally, what if it takes a year and that drags down to 26 more likely, 60% less likely, and it should say among the more likes, those are mainly among Republicans.

Clearly not among Democrats and Independents. Finally, two questions just related to the overall vision of, president Trump's foreign policy. do you support President Trump's, reasserting dominance over the Western hemisphere? 37% say they do 50%. Say they don't. It was [00:06:00] 31 supporting and 51, not supporting among independents.

And lastly, what about our neighbor to the north annexing Greenland? Only 30% support that and 55% opposed 17% of independence. Supported that 58% oppose. I think we've got a clear statement once again from a blue state, but I think the trend line is gonna be there throughout the United States. Anything to add j?

Jeremy Zogby: yeah, obviously, the other major highlight. this poll is the governor's race, which we're not gonna cover those numbers. we, did do something interesting. We introduced the three-way Horse race. that, to my knowledge, no other poll has [00:07:00] factored in the Libertarian candidate, Larry Sharp. hold off, until Monday to send out our press release. and Tuesday to do a podcast. But it's important because there's was some chatter in 2024, that New York was back in play. while it is true that over cycles, New York does go back and forth between Democrat and Republican, it's been 24 years, that it's, stayed Democrat.

But for any of those who had. Any sense that New York, at this moment now be back in play? First of all, we, have to understand that the former Republican favorite Elise, Stefanik has dropped out. Now, I don't know exactly what that was. My, I [00:08:00] suspect that came from above. I suspect Republican pollsters saw, tanking. And that she didn't have a shot. And so they asked her to step out and they tried to recruit somebody, who could run on a MAGA line but could perform better. That, of course, is likely to be, Bruce Blakeman. But here's, why this poll matters. What we drill down and see the overall unpopularity of the, Trump's quintessential foreign policy stance. Of reasserting what they're called, the Don Row Doctrine, a play on the Mun Monroe Doctrine dominating the Atlantic Ocean, dominating the Americas, and potentially even annexing Greenland. We look to the independents who make up about a quarter of this state. And here's the important point.

The [00:09:00] only way that New York state becomes a state that is back in play that could swing red. Is if a Republican candidate can get the vast majority of those independent voters. But looking at this one question here, the cornerstone of the new Trump foreign policy that is reasserting dominance over the Western Hemisphere, only 17%, as you pointed out, dad, only 17% of independents support it. Versus about 60% who oppose it. Now, I know the New York governor is not going to have to do, deal with foreign policy at all, but it gives us perspective that he or she who has to run on the MAGA line, has to tow the MAGA line and has to uphold the MAGA line. And although the New York governor does not deal with foreign policy, the New York governor has to [00:10:00] extol. all that is MAGA and it doesn't look like this is gonna be a state that could be friendly. and if Bruce Blakeman does have to go full maga, which he likely will it right now, at this moment, it doesn't look very competitive.

John Zogby: No it doesn't. And of course we will talk more about it, I think on Tuesday. I wanna go back to the lesson from all of this, and that is that Americans, new Yorkers, in this instance, but I, think nationwide, are still very much in the post-Vietnam war era, which means that. They may support a war. if the war is just, if American involvement matters and if we can leave quickly and having done something positive.

And as we look [00:11:00] since Vietnam, what's worked well, Grenada, that was. Mainly for show, that was quick and dirty. So was Panama. We went in, got the Noriega, and then the rebuilding started. And then of course there was Operation Desert Storm, and, exhausted, almost starving the Iraqi army.

were waving handkerchiefs in their hands, surrendering. What didn't work well, obviously Vietnam didn't work, but the war on terror simply didn't. There was no end game, no end in sight, and it became protracted, and our involvement made things worse and to a large degree. That could be said in Afghanistan.

there was no end in sight, no exit strategy. And [00:12:00] so as we ponder Venezuela and look at the lessons of the post-Vietnam war era, I ha, the President did it all wrong. First of all, we don't know exactly what the policy is. Is it all about oil? Is it about actually controlling Venezuela? Are the Venezuelan people going to accept that this is not a tiny country?

And this is the sophisticated people as well. There are multiple factions. Maduro Chavez before him, very bad men who took a democracy and, and made things decidedly worse. But do we make things better, number one and number two, do we make things better in a short enough time period that the American people will accept it because by six months to a year, they won't [00:13:00] accept it.

I'm gonna drop the mic on that one.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. I, don't know how it's gonna pan out. I, don't believe, I believe it's resource based. Venezuela is involved in a lot of South American countries are involved a lot of trade agreements with China.

John Zogby: Yeah.

Jeremy Zogby: of course, China gets a considerable amount of its oil, from Venezuela.

I, I'm convinced that this was, A way to neutralize China, a way to, to weaken them and to, inhibit their ability to continue to gain inroads into South America. I'm convinced that's what this is all about. the drug story and, fentanyl and all that, it doesn't add up. in light of that, the main question [00:14:00] becomes, so what's the blowback? and that's a big question. It's a huge question because, does China stand back as it loses access to a large amount of its oil? Probably not. And the precedent that is now set, my main question is, can now Vladimir Putin say, okay, that's how it is. That's the new rules based order. we can send in an operation and we can kidnap zelensky. And by the way, Beijing may contemplate doing something with Taiwan. So what we're gonna be looking for is what is the response? and is there major blowback from all of this? And I think that's the key thing to watch.

John Zogby: It is, things are not looking good and I. We wanna be sensitive to the fact that while we did talk about New York politics and did talk about [00:15:00] Venezuela, a young innocent woman was murdered, in Minneapolis. And, that, that entire scene is unfolding right before our eyes and there are protests and demonstrations, all over the country because of ice.

Who ICE is recruiting how ICE under the President's leadership is asserting itself in cities throughout the country that don't want it it in their cities. And, that's another polling topic at another time. I'm signing off. have a good few days because we'll be back on Tuesday.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Have a good weekend.

[00:16:00]