John Zogby: [00:00:00] Mamdani has to deliver and the Democrats have to enable him to deliver. He's gotta put points on the board, and Democrats from the governor on down to the city council have to help him.
Put points on the board. Otherwise there will be failure.
Jeremy Zogby: Venezuela is important, because this is an issue of a war brewing. With the use of extreme executive powers,
John Zogby: it's Friday, January 2nd, 2026, and welcome to a New Year's edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And I'm John Zogby, as always. And as always. Hey, Jr. How you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: Hey dad, happy New
John Zogby: Thank you. and to you too. And it is, and I you just a little bit of housekeeping. We enter our sixth year now of this podcast [00:01:00] and, it grows in listenership and hopefully continues to grow, but wow.
Do we have an important year this year? And I thought, we thought what we would do is from our. Different perspectives. Just take a look at, leading up to the main event, November, 2026. Very important election house majority, for that matter, really, even the senate majority, are are up for grabs and, as well the future of the Trump presidency as well.
with your permission, I would like to just focus on two major topics. The prospects for the Democrats, the prospects for the Republicans, what do you think have anything to say?
Jeremy Zogby: as the, big stories to look out for 2026.
John Zogby: Yes, absolutely.
Jeremy Zogby: Okay. And then, yeah, why don't you go ahead and do that and, in listening, [00:02:00] I'll see. I'll have probably others, but can all lay it all on the table.
John Zogby: Okay, let's do that. in review in 2025, we had some major victories. but I do honestly believe that the democratic prospects for 2025, in addition to, closely watching the Trump presidency is to whether it flags or succeeds. The key word for Democrats this year is Mamdani. And how he does in New York Now, one might say, yeah, New York City is not a bellwether, of anything.
and maybe too much has been made about this one victory in, in one city. But the reality is that, I am gonna be closely watching Mayor Mamdani He's had some aggressive positions. He has aggressively [00:03:00] defined himself as a Democratic socialist. He is a Muslim, and he's 34 years old. And many would consider his programs anything from too left and too radical to just simply pipe dreams.
Somebody who's too young, who needs to learn from an establishment, more experience, how things actually get done. And so that would lead one to conclude that the more, establishment, folks. In the Democratic Party, you're gonna try to make things difficult for Ani so as not to be painted as fellow travelers along the socialist line.
Something that Trump and the Republicans can use against Democrats. As too left wing, too far away from the, from the mainstream, the American population. I [00:04:00] see it otherwise, and I see Ma Dani's success or failure pointing to the Democrats success or failure. And I'm gonna argue, Democrats have got to play along with Mamdani.
They cannot be seen as obstacles because the city. And the issue of affordability and that issue as a potent weapon for Democrats come November is, the ultimate key to their success or failure. Mamdani has to deliver and the Democrats have to enable him to deliver. He's gotta put points on the board, and Democrats from the governor on down to the city council have to help him.
Put points on the board. Otherwise there will be failure. And it won't just simply be Mamdani's failure, it will be the failure of the Democrats to, [00:05:00] showing that they cannot meet the expectations of New Yorkers. And many Democrats, who find Mamdani a compelling character. So I'm gonna suggest that's the first thing I'm gonna look for.
I'm gonna watch him very closely. I'm gonna watch his opposition very closely, and I'm gonna watch to see if Democrats, play along and help him along. If they don't, this could be a bad year for Democrats. The second thing I'm looking at, I've mentioned this before but I'll go into a little bit more detail, is the Republican Party and what appears to be the beginnings of a disintegration of the right.
In fact, let's go further of the far you've got Turning Point USA and you've got battles within. You have heritage foundation, you have battles within. You have a number [00:06:00] of. floundering former MAGA people, Marjorie Taylor Greene, now Lauren Bober, perhaps, and others who were strongly maga who are now expressing, hostility, if not, disappointment towards President Trump.
And so i'm now going to watch closely to see if, president Trump can rally the right and put this MAGA movement and ultra-conservative movement back together. But one thing that I'm watching very closely.
Is the healthcare issue. And the longer that, the 2020 2 million folks who, are dependent on, federal subsidies under Obamacare, the longer they go without those subsidies, [00:07:00] the, real problem Republicans will face, Democrats are starting. Just starting to make inroads in rural America, taking healthcare away from predominantly, working poor, rural, poor, in pockets, of some red states could potentially turn some of those congressional districts and some of those red states, on the bluish side.
So that's my take and that's what I'm watching this year.
I don't have anything. No.
Okay. Do you hear it now? Okay. Yeah. There's nothing.[00:08:00]
Thanks, Ryan.
[00:09:00] Nope.
Jeremy Zogby: Okay, there we go. no, it's a bizarre setup right now. The. That bot, those bottom icons are like specs. I don't know why they shrunk, but whatever. I see it and I found it. okay. 3, 2, 1. I, think those are all very important things. frankly, I think that there are going to be more explosive stories in 2026. I don't think you would find that, given what we've seen. really over the last five years. so I, again, I think everything you laid out is very true. I just happen [00:10:00] to think that there are going to be, bigger challenges, bigger stories, bigger problems. So I, since you covered Mamdani and the success of the Democratic Party, more or less hinging on his early success, which I would agree with you, I would agree with you.
it's not so much that New York City has ever been a bellwether, it's just Mandani is really the only character in that party who, I think has a, more interesting challenge against the president. New Gavin Newsom was playing that role, as you point out, the demographics of mom, Donny bring a lot more coalitions within the party together behind him. he's the one calling out the president the most, the loudest. And, [00:11:00] there's gonna be a showdown. those two in 2026 and it could get ugly. and then as you mentioned with healthcare, our polling showed in the last, rounds of our, national monthly poll that issue, healthcare, the Health of Americans and the state of healthcare shot up to the number two issue. But remember, inflation also the number one issue. Went back above 50%, 53% in our last poll, cited it as the top issue. in determining their vote, that signals to me that there's a real potential 2026 could see a larger spike of inflation. And you know me, we've been doing this podcast for six years. government statistics, regardless who the administration is, they're all bs. So if they're telling you that the inflation rate is down, don't listen [00:12:00] to that coming from the BLS. Listen to it coming from the voters. They're tracking it closely with their coupons in their pocketbooks, and they're already telling us more or less in our data that there are expectations for a tougher year, economically and financially. As of today, there's now another huge issue. If you thought Venezuela. Was a big, issue, on the geopolitical front. and it is, um, but there's another one brewing. obviously that's Iran be before I get to Iran, let me cover Venezuela 'cause it's equally important. Venezuela is important, because this is an issue of a war brewing. With the use of extreme executive powers, the American public isn't really getting a lot of information and [00:13:00] evidence as to these, boats that are being shot down. Who's in them, what's in them, what's really going on? You just have to take for granted that it's drug trafficking or it's human trafficking.
We, we don't know, but the administration says that it's drug trafficking. it's fentanyl, although really fentanyl mainly comes from China and Mexico, not Venezuela. So there's that, up in, in information. But, think the bigger issue that, is being lost, uh, is the China angle the, nation of China has made a lot of, Trade agreements and, pivots to Latin America and that this is, looks like, this is the Trump administration's re exercising the Monroe Doctrine. Um, and [00:14:00] the big picture is lead to a confrontation with China. but going back to Iran as of today. We have reports from the president that the US military, quote unquote, is locked and loaded, and that the protestors, according to the news, are turning against the government in Tehran, and that Trump offers his support. Now we're back to where we were in June when there was direct confrontation between Israel. Iran and then the United States got involved. I did point out over the summer, I didn't think it was over. I thought that there would be a part too. It looks like it could be shaping up again. That has, incredible, implications for effect on the global economy and as well as the political landscape. [00:15:00] key question is whether Trump intervening. Into those protests actually going to, rally those protestors behind their government because I don't think that they're, in fact, I would say, I know that they're not fans of the Trump administration or is it going to embolden them? I don't see how it does. but in, in the end, it, could bring about a larger mess and That was delivered to us. What this morning. and that is already the top story. So I'm mainly looking at this, from the geopolitical front and its implications on 2026 and voters.
John Zogby: All good. You raise a really interesting issue about Iran and there was the issue, in 2010 when the young people, students in the streets. Really looked like they had a chance of [00:16:00] toppling the government and the Obama administration withheld, withdrew a lot of criticism for that. But in retrospect, president Obama, I think showed some wisdom because if that regime of AYA was in any way.
Replaced or damaged, a new government had to be formed and those people out in the streets first and foremost would want peace and stability. And would they be able to get peace and stability if there was a new administration enabled and tied to the United States. You're bringing up the point. will a new administration in Iran enabled by the United States and Israel called.
cause more harm than more good. Probably more harm to the movement. So best that we back off, I don't think that we will, I don't think Israel will b will either. But [00:17:00] Jer, there's a number of flashpoints here. I think we've identified some really good ones. Let's just play a little game right now.
And this has absolutely no value whatsoever, except fun. Okay. You are, a Republican who's running for Congress in a swing district. thumb up or thumb down. Will you want Donald Trump to come in and campaign for you?
Jeremy Zogby: Honestly, it's gonna depend on the swing, district.
John Zogby: Okay. What about JD Vance?
Jeremy Zogby: my hesitation, I think is, my answer. Because neither of them are setting the world on fire.
John Zogby: I'm gonna put thumbs down to both one, two. Alright. [00:18:00] obviously I'm gonna play this game. so you're a Democrat in a swing district. Do you want each of the following to come in and campaign for you? Number one, Barack Obama.
Jeremy Zogby: Probably, hi. His favorable ratings are consistently high. I, so I say because of that fact.
John Zogby: Zohran Mamdani
Jeremy Zogby: No,
John Zogby: No. Gavin Newsom.
Jeremy Zogby: potentially.
John Zogby: Okay, let's leave it at that. Just a game. Don't try this at home, folks. Okay. I'm done. Congratulations on six years and we'll see you folks, very soon. And now with the holidays over, a bit more often as well.
Jeremy Zogby: well congratulations on 42 years for.
John Zogby: Yeah, that's true.
Jeremy Zogby: For you and, [00:19:00] 10 years almost for us.
John Zogby: Yeah, still going strong. And look, if I want some really good polling done, whether it's my business or my candidacy, where would I find a good polling operation?
Jeremy Zogby: definitely us. the, last thing I'll say is, of good polling, our next poll, we will do another national poll, I'm thinking at the end of January, but we, will most likely have a poll of the state of New York coming up
John Zogby: A lot going up.
Jeremy Zogby: And, New York is not a swing state, when you look at on a long enough timeline, it can be a swing state over many cycles. It can go back and forth. I, don't think we're heading back in that direction, but we wanna find out state of voters in, the [00:20:00] Empire State. And what we can glean from this poll, I think is gonna be very telling.
John Zogby: I agree. That's why we're doing it. Okay. Have a good week.
Jeremy Zogby: Happy New Year.
John Zogby: too.