John Zogby: [00:00:00] he did raise. his numbers by five points among independents, but that was not, it's still not a big number.
Jeremy Zogby: the question is, what happens three weeks from now there, Iran issue hasn't gone away. the economy. I think a lot is going to unfold in these next two or three weeks
John Zogby: Yes, the president's numbers moved, but question did they move enough?
John Zogby: Hello, it's Friday and that means another edition of Real Polling in Real Time by Zogby and what you're seeing are two Zogby. Once again, John, that's me and Jeremy, how you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: I'm good. I'm looking at these numbers that we literally just got 10 minutes ago and didn't really have much time to prepare for, but that's okay. 'cause. That's fun.
John Zogby: it is because we promise [00:01:00] real polling in real time and this is what it looks like. On my pad. So I took these down really quickly. we're unfolding these, as you folks out there are watching and listening. let me frame it. President gave his State of the Union, message on Tuesday.
John Zogby: It was a long one. and I have been on record now since George W. Bush, and his presidency in saying the era of the big bump. Is over the, the old days when a president could deliver a STEM winder speech and then see his poll numbers go up 8, 9, 10 percentage points. That just doesn't happen anymore. the, two parties, the Reg registered Democrats, the registered Republicans. are pretty much locked in. So a lot of it is about [00:02:00] how much flexibility there is among the independents. And so basically, I took a look also, at the January numbers that we published so that, we could take a look at what the difference was between. Our January number is late January and our late February numbers, this was done Wednesday night and Thursday, and so let's just, jump right in to that. In terms of the overall approval of the presidency, we see now that 47% approve of his handling of the job as president, 50%. Disapprove, he's still upside down. His speech really had to be extraordinary. But what we did see is that he did raise his numbers three points. He was 44 54 disapprove. Now what's notable is that [00:03:00] you could tell during the speech that there's very little appeal to, he was making to independent. This was basically, the exception of, a few items.
John Zogby: This was red meat to solidify his, his Republican base. And so last month he was at 31% approval. Overall, among independents, it's 36%. Now he did raise. his numbers by five points among independents, but that was not, it's still not a big number. It's still considerably upside down. 50% disapprove among in independents.
John Zogby: let's take a look at the President's signature issues. not only the ones that he needed to improve his numbers on the most because they were based on promises that he had made, but also, because he's upside [00:04:00] down going into the speech. So on immigration, we have 49%. Approving of his handling of immigration. 47%. Disapproving 49% represents two points higher than last month when he was upside down. so points there among independents, if a close look, what is that he was 38% approval. That's three points better. But U under disapprove, whereas in January, 48% disapproved among independents of his handling of immigration. This month it was 56% that disapproved. The next major issue is affordability. where he got low points, I think any president would get low points. You saw that the president made real [00:05:00] effort in the first third of his speech to talk about inflation getting better, the economy getting better, his initiatives that he's put in place, and initiatives that he plans to put in place. He did raise his numbers overall, but only to 43% approval of five point. increase in his approval rating over the 38% that he got in January, were independents buying it. 26% had in January. That's up to 35%. who give him positive marks on handling affordability? Nine point increase, but from 26% How about his handling of crime? 50% now approve. He was upside down last month. 50% approve, 44% disapprove [00:06:00] independents aren't buying this one either. 38% approve of his handling of crime. 55% disapprove. there are other issues out there. President has touted the fact in his words many times and. Prominently in the State of the Union message that he has settled eight wars across the planet. he gets a 49% approval on diplomacy, eight points better than in January, but a 45% disapproval on handling of diplomacy, almost an even split, but not upside down. And among independents, 40% 45. Disapprove. Finally, Iran is out there we didn't have numbers on Iran in January, this is, I would say, not what you want as you head [00:07:00] towards some sort of military action. Do Americans support action in Iran? And the answer in dealing in Iran, 45% support his approach to Iran. 46% oppose and among independents. It's 34% approve and 53% disapproved. Summarizing in one sentence, yes, the president's numbers moved, but question did they move enough? That remains to be seen.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. something we did different this time. typically over the last, for a long time we have just been zeroing in on, inflation. And then I think last month I combined inflation and the affordability crisis.
Jeremy Zogby: one could argue they're, the same thing. The effect is the same thing, but in all [00:08:00] actuality, technically speaking, they are different.
Jeremy Zogby: And inflation, of course is, the monetary policy of, what the president, even though the Federal Reserve sets the monetary policy, of course, presidents, go publicly on, on what they would like and what they think, is needed for the economy and. And other things I, that can be done fiscally.
Jeremy Zogby: but I decided to, to this month to, to separate inflation and the affordability crisis, just, to see what we come up with. So I'm just gonna see how the numbers differ. I don't think they differ much, but, overall 43% approved of his handling inflation, versus, 52% who disapprove.
John Zogby: Same thing.
Jeremy Zogby: yeah, basically, right? Yeah. Basically the same thing. so for on my end, just to sum it up a three point boost [00:09:00] from our last round of polling and trying to understand why, especially with everything that has gone on in the last three or four weeks.
Jeremy Zogby: Which has, really been an onslaught of a lot, such a full assault. I can't even list everything off the top of my mind. I'd have to take about five minutes to think about it. So my understanding in attempting to figure out how the public was swayed enough that even though, as you pointed out, the president is still underwater, but he's getting closer.
Jeremy Zogby: To, being even, and why it wasn't the other way, why he didn't go further underwater. And I, think it's as simple as there has been such negative news, for a long time, and, Americans are accustomed to being optimistic. People who wanna look at [00:10:00] the positive side of things that I think there was enough, sliver of the population.
Jeremy Zogby: That wanted to hear America's back, its economy is bigger and things are good. We can't ignore the intensity that exists, in conflict or against the president. As we see here, 41% alone strongly disapprove. that's 71% Democrats. and that's 47% independent. So we are not going to ignore that. But we are gonna say that I'm gonna say enough, people wanted to hear something positive, the president delivered it and it moved them.
Jeremy Zogby: And no, the question is, what happens three weeks from now there, Iran issue hasn't gone away. the economy. so I think a lot is going to unfold in these next two or [00:11:00] three weeks and, I think we'll see how the chips fall, in, my opinion, it's gonna be hard to see the economy getting stronger over the next month.
Jeremy Zogby: I hope I'm wrong about that. but those are the kind of things that we'll be looking in our next round.
John Zogby: I agree with you. I, took pretty voracious notes, as I always do with State of the Union messages. And he gave three speeches other night, and in my notes, the first third of the talk I think really helped him for those, voters who were looking for some sense of stability, some problem solving, a a, modulated tone, which is how I think the president started out. in, in the address. they got, some of what they needed, that there is progress [00:12:00] being made. arguably when he talks about inflation at its lowest level and so on, the problem is inflation is still going up. It's still going up. Tradition at a traditionally high rate. not an exaggerated rate has been before, then also that you're building inflation on top of already tremendous spikes in prices, and so no, people aren't really feeling that yet, but he gave an explanation and laid out some initiatives, and I think I would've rated him higher for that,
John Zogby: he couldn't sustain. That tone and part two was very belligerent. frankly, was traditional Donald Trump. It was, the red meat for his supporters. But taunting, somalis, [00:13:00] taunting illegal immigrants, repeating, folks call them lies, but certainly. Lies, let's just, just leave it at that. about illegal immigrants, was, totally uncalled for. And then in the end, it was getting on too long. the heroism thing is great. Try trotting out the US hockey team. Victorious men's hockey team. I think really worked. Some of the heroes I think were. and I just wondered why would a victim of a horrific crime or a terrorist attack even wanna be seen in, in public?
John Zogby: And so some of that was ew moment for me, but certainly the, [00:14:00] beginning of the speech, I thought even though there were clear exaggerations and self-serving. misrepresentations, the, tone I think helped him and that's where I think you got the three extra points.
Jeremy Zogby: I, think another important factor too is, and I don't know, perception versus reality, because I'm thankful I, don't have to take prescription drugs, but I know a lot of people who do, and they are expensive. And, the, agenda has been for several months now. Trump talking about getting hard on the pharmaceutical industry and, putting pressure and negotiating to bring drug costs down.
Jeremy Zogby: And I, do believe that was a major win. and I know that was something he highlighted and, I wouldn't underestimate [00:15:00] the, that impact, that, that had also on the numbers.
John Zogby: I'm curious 'cause again, we just didn't get a chance to look at these in great detail. Can you scroll back to, overall rating and let's see how seniors responded.
Jeremy Zogby: okay, here we go. 70 plus, that's good enough. 40, 48%. 47%.
John Zogby: Yeah. As opposed to 52, actually 53% disapprove. But how did that compare with other age groups?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, they're among the highest, the 70 plus group.
John Zogby: So that validates your point.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
John Zogby: anyway, let's just say went into his speech on the ropes. He's still on the ropes, he's hanging on. Did that
Jeremy Zogby: [00:16:00] I,
John Zogby: it?
Jeremy Zogby: yeah, I think that's, I think that's fair.
John Zogby: then let's leave it at fair.
Jeremy Zogby: Okay.
John Zogby: Alright, have a good week.
Jeremy Zogby: You too.
John Zogby: Thanks.