Jeremy zogby: [00:00:00] what I'm saying is that everything Trump touches an element of chaos to it.
Speaker: I can't help but conclude as far as the American people are concerned, that we, the people are very much in the post Vietnam war era.
Jeremy zogby: there's no rhyme or reason to, the mixed messages of the diplomacy where one day there's progress, where the other day. on the topic agree that away from war.
Speaker: It is Friday, and that means it's another regular edition of Real Polling and Real Time with Zogby. I'm John Zogby and right over there on the screen is my son, Jeremy Zogby, our managing partner, and my boss. How are you?
Jeremy zogby: I'm doing okay. All things [00:01:00] considered. How are you?
Speaker: I'm doing okay. All things considered. There's a lot going on and so I thought I'd go right to a crisis situation. And, asked the question are, we headed towards war with Iran? it's, it's a bit baffling to me. It's, it seems that the time where we would come close to intervention in Iran, past, that's with the, really the murder of thousands of outrageously high number of protestors.
Iran. even at that point in time, couple of weeks ago, polls were showing that Americans were even less inclined to, attack Iran. Bomb Iran Do what? Whatever to Iran. But, the title of our podcast, as always the [00:02:00] tagline is real polling in real time. And I have some fresh numbers here that I wanna share.
From the University of Maryland, this was taken actually a little over a week ago. and the question was asked, should do favor oppose the United States initiating an attack on Iran? 21% were in favor, 49% opposed. The rest, 30% were not sure among. Republicans, 40% favor, 25% oppose and 35% are not sure.
Right around the same time, give or take a day or so, the u gov polling firm out of London, teams up with the economists and found pretty much the same thing, 28% favored. [00:03:00] military action against Iran, 48% opposed. And, on the issue of, the United States becoming involved militarily in Iran on behalf of the protestors, even more opposed, 52%, 25% favor.
And Here, just a bunch of things I don't understand. I hope we can start to clarify. number one I is, we just heard announcements really within the last 48 hours from both the United States and Iran. That definite progress was being. On the nuclear negotiations that were being held, that there was a kind of a sense of optimism on both sides.
Why are we talking about Sabre rattling right now? Not just [00:04:00] Sabre rattling, but moving warships and positioning war planes. the second thing is, it's one thing to have a terrible act. Iran is certainly capable of doing a terrible act, but moving public opinion from one fourth in favor to a majority or even a super majority in favor.
I don't see how it's done and I don't see How it's done frankly, by this president who, as we've shared many times before, has, majorities who oppose him and almost majorities oppose him on, major issues. So that I can't help but conclude as far as the American people are concerned, that we, the people are very much in the post Vietnam war era.[00:05:00]
They don't favor getting involved no matter how terrible the crisis is. they don't favor getting involved unless. Number one, it's morally justifiable. Number two, we can make a difference. And number three, we can leave things in better shape than they were before we intervened. And I, guess what the American people are saying, and what I can't help but conclude is that at least two outta three of those conditions are not met.
But what, do you think? I'm not gonna ask you if it keeps you up at night. you?
got four little kids. and so they're, additional variables. But tell me what, what the hell's going on here? Why are we sare rattling with public opinion like that?
Jeremy zogby: that's a powerful summary and analysis of what's happening in the moment. And, [00:06:00] all I can think of, but before I get onto the ensuing chaos and, the reasons behind what's happening right now in the global order, specifically, and Saber rattling Iran, I, do have to. Completely agree with you about the post-Vietnam syndrome, better, because you actually lived through that. And I grew up hearing about the legacy. But of course, I, came of age when, the United States went to war with, two nations, Iraq for the second time, in, then Afghanistan, which both lasted about 20 years. And so that still lingers over the public and. as you've always alluded and said that Americans like their wars won. quickly, and over, but with the case of [00:07:00] Iran, that can't possibly be the case. so is going on and, why? I'm not sure entirely about the cause, but I can speculate about the effect. the chaotic nature Trump's diplomacy and his approach to the White House. regarding everything, domestic politics, international politics, even with the, things that his campaigns have promised and, our delivering on, such as immigration and, transparency. In light of the Epstein documents, that three and a half million, dump of files, although heavily redacted is, still unbelievably and, unsettling in, in terms of its detail.
But what I'm saying is that [00:08:00] everything Trump touches an element of chaos to it. and, that's not even from a democratic voter perspective. That's from an independent perspective. We see that in, in the numbers among independent voters. what is going on with regards to Iran and I, guess what makes the most sense is there, there's a historical notion that an empire in its last days in its death.
Rows, it goes out, like a vicious dying dog. Here, the American behemoth, rose to, prominence on, on, on world politics decisively, in 1945 establishing the post, world order. It looks like [00:09:00] we're in the, very final months or years of that order and. That goes back to the notion of, a declining empire going out like a vicious dog. Is this the ho the, last hope to consolidate America as the global cop, as the, preeminent force, or is it, so foolish that from the chaos that would result, would come a new order and what, that new order would look like in the, interest of Trump? I don't know, a, western hemispherical power.
I, not sure, but it, doesn't make a lot of sense if, you're analyzing it from a rational perspective because there's no rhyme or reason to, the mixed messages of the diplomacy where one day there's progress, where the [00:10:00] other day. Virtually most, on the topic agree that away from war. that, that's just trying to look at it from, 30,000 feet above
John Zogby: Yeah, let, me get down to maybe 20,000
Jeremy zogby: or
John Zogby: feet.
Jeremy zogby: I.
John Zogby: Alright. or 10. So Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, gave a speech before the, European Union several days ago and basically laid out the, new world order is Western values versus the rest, and that we are engaged in a battle. Between two civilizations and that Europe's gotta step up to the game because they've been lagging, in fact, they've been failing.
[00:11:00] and to see the world at this point in terms of the West and Western values versus everyone else is first and foremost. Insulting to everyone else. Secondly, very insulting to Europe. And thirdly, I don't know where you go with that, is one example. I have other polling data here and this is, poll, recently taken by Canadian firm of Canadians.
Now. To the best of my knowledge, I don't think Canada ever really did anything to the United States. But early in the second term, Donald Trump began talking about annexing ca Canada making it for 51st state. And then there were a whole series of other things, not the least of which were the tariffs, but there was more.[00:12:00]
so in this poll of 2000 Canadians, 42% say the US is no longer an ally. 48% say the US is a bigger threat to the world than Russia. 57% say the US cannot be dependent upon in a crisis. 69% agree. The US tends to create problems for other countries. So if we're talking about a hemispheric dominance, it's not playing at least in one.
country to the north of us. One major country. I should point out, we already know it's not playing very well, south of us either with Mexico. So somebody said to me, it was in the form of a long question on a radio talk show the other day. And someone said, but don't you [00:13:00] see the effectiveness of what President Trump is doing?
He's not laying all of his cards out. He's purposely creating questions and confusion, to get a, dominant hand, when he, negotiates with other folks.
Jeremy zogby: that's resting on the assumption that the United States holds all jokers and the ACEs in its pocket,
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy zogby: is with that assumption, there's an entire world that's developing beyond the United States. In terms
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy zogby: of
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy zogby: agreements, in terms of, currencies and the financial infrastructure to do business with each other and not with the United States. the United States, and look, this is this, it doesn't matter whether it was Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump [00:14:00] too, nations are sanctioned by the United States. If the United States doesn't like what they do. And increasingly and so those countries sanctioned by the United States have formed, things like Bricks Plus and A-S-E-A-N and these growing, trade relationships and the United States is gonna find itself, really just looking, Within its own borders. I'm obviously some, other countries that will remain allies for long. But yeah, that's just that, that, the, that's the shortcomings of an overtly nationalist outlook in, in, a world that's, doesn't appear to be going back
John Zogby: [00:15:00] no, it's self-imposed isolation. Incidentally, breaking news, just as we're doing this podcast, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that most of President Trump's, tariffs are illegal and have to be rolled back. with that said, back to that Canadian poll. Where I said that 48% of Canadians say that the US is a bigger threat than Russia.
Only 29% said Russia was a bigger threat and only 10% said China.
Jeremy zogby: staggering.
John Zogby: yeah, it is
Jeremy zogby: So,
John Zogby: Canada.
Jeremy zogby: this all back to Iran and the midterms in voters.
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy zogby: I'll have my closing statement here that the president. to have something, very real in terms of improving the [00:16:00] lives of voters that, that he can convincingly showcase particularly to independent voters. but flirting with a new war with a major power, at the same time that the most grotesque details of the Epstein files are coming to surface. doesn't really look well. Meanwhile, all these numbers can come out about the economy doing the stock market and the s and p and people's 4 0 1 Ks. But, the cost of living and the affordability crisis. Notice how we've gone from in our vernacular, we've gone from inflation to affordability crisis. And that, that, not something would say that was developed in, Democratic, led focus groups. That's my ear to the ground, that, that's what I'm [00:17:00] witnessing among most people.
so the president's gonna find himself in a very, difficult position as the midterms start heating up. And if the Republicans don't maintain control both houses, think we know, what's coming the way of Trump or for, what's coming I, I expect in, a month or two, we'll, see whether this issue of Iran. is going to happen, or, it's just gonna get, shoved to, the side and a new story will emerge.
John Zogby: clearly if it's a diversionary. Tactic or a bargaining chip? I don't think it's gonna work. on the diversionary tactic, still just scratching the [00:18:00] surface on those Epstein files that have been released. There's so much more and worse for the president is the, so much speculation. and how do you reign that in unless there's transparency, but if there's transparency, how much is in there?
it has been said that his name is referenced a million times in those three and a half million or so documents, whatever it is, it's, not playing well and whatever it is, going to war with Iran is something that at the very least is making me scratch my head. So that's my final comment.
Jeremy zogby: we've got plenty of, follow up material for next week, so
John Zogby: Okay.
Jeremy zogby: weekend.
John Zogby: Have a good week.
Yeah, thanks.
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