Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] there's a lot of negativity, and it's primarily coming from the independent vote.
John Zogby: there's a lot of caution here, but as of today, Republicans are in panic mode and we can see why.
Jeremy Zogby: These kind of underwater ratings on every issue tested. What impact does that have on the midterms?
John Zogby: It's Friday. That means another edition of real polling in real time with zogby. John Zogby. Jira. How you doing this week?
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I am pretty good. What about you?
John Zogby: I'm okay. but maybe the president of the United States isn't because this is entitled Real Polling in Real Time, and that's what we have for our viewers and listeners.
John Zogby: We just got to see these numbers early this morning. We finished our polling late last night, [00:01:00] and so these are literally hot off the press. And we're gonna share these numbers with you and here and there, a little commentary.
John Zogby: first and foremost, let's look at the all important presidential approval rating. And there you see is question 12. Overall, do you approve or disapprove Donald Trump's job as president? Always look at that column that's highlighted valid percent. what we see is the President's approval rating is at 44, which is low. For us, his disapproval rating is 54%, and that 44% of that is strongly disapprove. Before we move on to the next question, I want everybody to know that among the all important [00:02:00] independence, 31, approve 67. Disapprove and 25% of self-described conservatives, disapprove of the president's handling of his job. Now let's go to, the individual issues, and border policy.
John Zogby: Among the top three issues, and it's been a signature issue for Mr. Trump, and what we see is gets a 46%. Approval rating on immigration and border policy, but a 49% disapproval. Remember, this is his signature issue and we did see him this past week. slow down a little bit, sending, 700 ice agents out of Minneapolis and presumably back home. 58% of independence disapprove [00:03:00] the number one issue. As, I'll note later on in our poll, is the economy and affordability even greater than immigration? economy, the president gets a total of 42% approved and 58% disapprove 65% disapprove on affordability. Which has become a separate issue unto itself. 37%. 37% approve and 57 disapprove independents. You may wanna write this one down. of independents approve 69% disapprove. What about the president's diplomatic style? saw that, in action, especially in Davos, [00:04:00] recently, the president gets, combined and somewhat approve of 40%, 54% disapprove among independents. 29% approve, 66% disapprove. We move on to tariffs. And what we find is that on tariffs on other countries, president gets a 41% overall approval rating, but a 55% disapproval, because independence shop as well. it is 28% on his handling of tariffs. 28% approve and 66% disapprove. Finally, the issue of crime, which is another of the top three issues, facing the country. [00:05:00] Top four, sorry. Oh, the president gets a 46% approval, but he is upside down. A 50% disapproval and it's less, rosy, if you can call that rosy, less rosy among independents where 35% 59% disapprove. Just three more questions I wanna highlight. we asked if folks expected personal financial situation under Mr.
John Zogby: Trump to get better. Or to get worse overall, 38% said to get better. said they expect it to get worse. about the US standing in the world? said they expected it to get stronger under President Trump. to [00:06:00] 53%. said they expected to get weaker? And then finally, a question that I have been tracking 1997 is, you, since Bill Clinton, are you proud or ashamed that Donald Trump is our president? 35% say that they're proud, and 49% say that they're ashamed among independents. 19% said that they were proud. 56% said that they were ashamed. a final comment about all this. is like a reading today. This is not predictive. it's if I know I need to lose weight November 4th, I'm gonna get on the scale every once in a while to see how I'm doing. the scale is not so good for Donald Trump the Republicans as we'll see, [00:07:00] early next week, for, 2026. However, it's only the a reading for now, and we do see the president backing down on some of his harder stances, especially immigration and, crime Jer. What do you think?
Jeremy Zogby: the quick recap of what you just demonstrated from our latest poll. Which was, conducted, just two days ago, and then we got out of the field last night. is that the president? for, all of the issues we are testing, which I think really cover the gamut.
Jeremy Zogby: He's underwater with everyone. Even his, his Signa, signature issue, signature issues of, crime and immigration. So, obviously and clearly, president is not doing well.
Jeremy Zogby: you and I are not [00:08:00] going to disagree. What we're trying to figure out is these kind of numbers. These kind of underwater ratings on every issue tested. What impact does that have on the midterms? Because now this is the season. This is the season where it's gonna start picking up more and more. It's gonna be on voters' minds more and more.
Jeremy Zogby: And so we wanna see how the president is impacting the midterms. And I think maybe a good window to look into the performance is, to cover. the hot button issues of the day and asking whether voters think the Democrats are better positioned to handle those issues or the Republicans. And what we're gonna see, I think is, gonna be, pretty revealing and, we can tie it all together.
Jeremy Zogby: just moving on down here.
Jeremy Zogby: the first one we have to ask is which party is better positioned to handle, [00:09:00] or address the affordability crisis? and as of today, February 6th, it's 40%. Say the Democrats are in a better position versus 35% Republicans remember. Trump's major strength going into November, 2024. No doubt about it was the economy and the expectation that he was going to alleviate the pain, the economic pain, the personal finance pain that voters were feeling under, the Biden administration.
Jeremy Zogby: That's not good. an issue that is playing out in real time increasingly. Is the notion of AI and its impact on the job market. A week ago, Amazon announced laying off 16,000. That's just one example we're seeing. We're seeing [00:10:00] major companies announce layoffs, every other week, at least every month.
Jeremy Zogby: And a lot of it has to do with AI replacing these jobs. And so in the moment and going into the midterms, voters more and more are gonna be feeling the pain of that. Or they're gonna know somebody in, maybe in their family, maybe in their neighborhood or community. And so that's an a hot button issue, that's going to, I think.
Jeremy Zogby: Play more and more, in, in, in the midterms is which candidate, whether it's in a con, a key congressional district or any congressional district can, better position themselves as they and their party are better. Able to deal with this. And right now it's, pretty tight. 31% say the Democrats they expect will do better with minimizing the impact of job loss due [00:11:00] to AI versus 28% who said Republicans still though?
Jeremy Zogby: The Democrats have the lead. what about securing America's edge in a gr, a growing globally competitive world? this one, I'm not surprised. the edge goes to the Republicans. 39% of voters, say the Republicans are, and the Democrats 35%. they get from voters. still, close but in edge for the Republicans and that doesn't surprise me because right now the big question is
Jeremy Zogby: who is the face within the Democratic party that can be, the, major go-to diplomacy person, the broker dealer, the person who, sits down in a meeting with Putin or, Xi, for that matter in China. And we don't know. And I think, I suspect that's why Republicans have the edge. Of course, this issue [00:12:00] we couldn't ignore.
Jeremy Zogby: This is everywhere. This is in the news. This is on X social media is the Epstein files. I, suspect this issue is not done even though there were three and a half million files that were dumped. I suspect that there are more to come. And so this is here with us in our political landscape. And, for all those, and I hear this a lot, I hear a lot of folks saying, ah, this doesn't matter.
Jeremy Zogby: it does matter. I, don't even understand how anyone could even make the argument that, the Epstein files, the revelations, those who are implicated, has no effect. Just look at what's happening in the uk. prime Minister Starr. Who wasn't even implicated in, in the Epstein files, but a close advisor of his was is now in full panic mode.
Jeremy Zogby: So there the, effect [00:13:00] is, vast. And we asked a question about regaining trust, in government, in light of the Epstein files. 'cause that's the heart of the matter. We're already dealing with a low trust society. It's funny to use those words in an American context. but does that trust collapse?
Jeremy Zogby: and right now, the edge goes to the Democrats. 35% of voters say that, the Democratic Party is better to, better, more likely to handle or better position to handle, regaining trust in government in light of the Epstein files versus, 29% of voters who said Republicans. a, dominant theme of American history and of course politics.
Jeremy Zogby: It's mentioned in every major speech, the American Dream, which party is going to keep the American dream alive? Republicans get the edge, [00:14:00] 37%, Democrats 35. Again, that's tight. what about me meeting the needs of the working class Democrats have a very comfortable lead. 43% say. the Democrats, 35% say the Republicans.
Jeremy Zogby: We then pivot to what about the needs of the middle class? And still, Democrats have a comfortable lead. 40% of voters select Democrats, 35% select Republicans. I believe this is the, we're at the last two here, finding the best solution to immigration. Republicans, this is still their strong point. 41% for Republicans, 34% for Democrats.
Jeremy Zogby: And then addressing Americans growing concerns about health. Democrats have the edge. I'm gonna stop throwing numbers out 'cause we've thrown a lot of numbers out in short. Drilling down to these [00:15:00] issues, meeting the needs of working class, middle class, keeping the American dream alive, handling the affordability crisis, trust in light of the Epstein files, immigration, and, a host of other major issues that are gonna continue to be front and center in politics as we head to the midterms.
Jeremy Zogby: In short, Democrats get six on the point. the, scoreboard Republicans get four. But I would say that Democrats, have six of the, most key Republicans, no doubt about it. The four, issues that voters tilt in their favor are key. But how does that now play out in the midterm question? And that's what we're gonna look at.
John Zogby: Go ahead. Go
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. So if, vote, when we ask voters, who do they plan to [00:16:00] vote for in November in their district, the Democrat or the Republican candidate, 47% say Democrat, the Democratic candidate, 42% say the Republican candidate. That's a five point lead. And, you know that, that's, the sounding of the alarm for the Republican party.
John Zogby: Five points or better. Means for Democrats, a pickup of seats normally. the generic number is not a perfect number, but historically that's what it's meant. They're on the cusp right now. a couple of cautionary notes. first is I'm recalling in 2004 that testing John Kerry and George W.
John Zogby: Bush in the presidential race on who's better to handle. 10 top issues, according to our polls. Kerry was winning, I should [00:17:00] say, on nine of those 10, but George W. Bush was leading on national security 64 to 23, and that was enough for Bush to win on that one issue. And so just cautionary again, that goes with the fact that this is today, still, February. So there's a lot of caution here, but as of today, Republicans are in panic mode and we can see why. Oh, one other thing that I, do remember. I think one of the key points in that final round the middle class and the Democrats ahead. Four or five points on handling the needs of the middle class. Remember, the biggest edge that Democrats lost is they used to be considered the party of the people, then they became considered over the 10, last 10 years, the party of the [00:18:00] elite and the fact that they're now seen. As having a five point edge on handling the needs of the middle class should provide some for them, but they've gotta keep that.
Jeremy Zogby: I'm gonna wrap it up with again, we put a lot of numbers out there, for people to, to chew on and then building off of, your cautionary tail. of not running with this, these numbers because we still have a, ways to go, but in this moment, I think the key takeaway, the key headline in everything that, that we covered, I'll put it in the form of the question and then I'll, answer it.
Jeremy Zogby: Is, does Trump bring added value to the Republican candidate running in all of, these, Of these, congressional and important elections in the midterms, do, [00:19:00] is he going to push those Republican candidates over the edge or is he going to hold them back if history is any lesson in 2022? He held them back because there wasn't the red wave that people were expecting.
Jeremy Zogby: And right now it's looking Really, it's gonna be very tough to, compete for Republican candidates if Trump is gonna put himself front and center in all of those, key, elections, because there's a lot of, baggage, there's a lot of negativity, and it's primarily coming from the independent vote.
John Zogby: Okay. to say, but we will wait until, next week, to reveal what we're seeing for 2028. okay. Good, Paul, good discussion.
Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Have a good weekend.
[00:20:00]