Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] Neither party really has their act together.
John Zogby: there is not a unified issue.
Jeremy Zogby: The Democrats have more advantage. The Republicans have some advantage on key issues,.
John Zogby: why, would it be tied if things are not going very well,
John Zogby: It is Monday, and welcome to a special edition of the Zogby Report. Real polling in real time, and the reason why we're having a special edition is what I just said. We have some real polling in real time, and while it's hot off the press, we wanted to share it with you, and it's a puzzling one I'm going to admit.
Because I setting the table for this, conversation, we have a situation where, as we saw on Friday where the president's approval rating has gone down and his handling of a number of issues, the approval on those have gone down. [00:01:00] The war is unpopular, in two weeks of, war. At that point in time, a majority oppose it.
whereas presidents are accustomed to having folks rally around the flag, when we go to war, that didn't happen. The thing that's puzzling to me is that really in the middle of all of this, when we do the congressional generic, and ask people, who do you intend to vote for in your congressional district, the Democrat or the Republican?
We are the first to come out with numbers showing that the Democrats and Republicans are tied at 46% each. And it's amazing to me with, the president's numbers, not very good. And as Jeremy's gonna point out in some detail, [00:02:00] Democrats outscoring Republicans on several seven actually of 11 issues.
That we tested, that we still have a tie. And so I'm gonna pitch it over to you, Jeremy, and ask with that context, why, would it be tied if things are not going very well, please share some numbers with us.
Jeremy Zogby: yeah. So let's go through the data first and then sense of it. So the 11 issues that we'll be testing, and I think these are pretty set in stone. We may add a couple, 'cause the, playing field is gonna change. but undeniably, the following issues, are, it's where it's at, which you have to be looking at.
And we pulled, affordability, health and wellness. That is the health of Americans. [00:03:00] addition, as a separate issue, healthcare, crime, the Epstein files, and let me set the stage. The question in all of these issues is which party's in a better position to deal with each better? in the context of Epstein, that would be in light of Epstein files and everything that has happened with that, who's in a better position to gain public trust? who is in a better position to meet the needs of the middle class, voters and working class. who is in a better position to minimize the impact of ai job loss? I think we think that's a, an issue that we're gonna be hearing more about in the coming months. who has the best solution to immigration? keep America, strong. in international affairs [00:04:00] and keep the American dream alive. and so what I'm gonna do is, rather than throw the percentages at you, I'm gonna, I'm gonna tell you who won and, what was the margin of winning according to the voters, you alluded to, the Democrats got seven of those 11 issues.
And in order of their biggest wins, let's look at 'em, addressing, Americans healthcare. 14 percentage points higher voters went to dems over Republicans. And we know our polling that health and healthcare has become the number two issue consistently. in our polling over the last several months, addressing Americans health and wellness, Democrats win by 12 percentage points.
By the way, these are decisive leads. these are well outside of the margin of error. They're double digit territory. [00:05:00] regaining trust in government in light of the Epstein Files. surprise that the Democrats have a natural advantage to that for now. Dems win that issue by 11. Meeting the needs of working Class Dems win by eight.
That's their historical brand. I don't think it's so much that majority of voters or plurality of voters. saying, oh, the Democrats are back. But more or less that they're in a better position to do better than what Trump had promised on, on, on a stronger economy, which a lot of Americans don't see. that's how we understand that, the affordability crisis, Democrats have the seven point, percentage point lead. And again, it doesn't mean that they have the masterful economic growth plan. this is more or less buyer's remorse against Donald Trump and his promises that he campaigned on 2024. [00:06:00] Instead, we got the, tariff crisis. now this, which is starting to affect, Americans, bank accounts and pocketbooks. I, while we're on this issue, let me delve into this because we posted this on X and that I really pay attention to what people say on X, but you can't miss it.
And, when we show our polling that the Democrats have the advantage on affordability, you, it's not a surprise that MAGA voters find that hilarious. me look at the cross tabs real quick and show, people why that is, why the Democrats have the advantage. It's because you look at the independent voters. Obviously among democratic voters, they think the party, their party has the advantage. And you look at Republicans and they, by and large, they think their party has advantage. But among independents, decisively, more independents say the [00:07:00] Democrats are in a better position to handle the affordability. And I think a lot of that is really just buyer's remorse against Trump and his promise, his main promise, continuing meeting the needs of the middle class that goes to. Dems, lead by six points. And last but not least, minimizing the impact of loss, of jobs from ai. Democrats have, the advantage on that now where Republicans are strong preventing the spread of crime. 10 percentage points more go to the Republicans finding the better solution. The best solution to immigration. Republicans have a strong advantage plus seven. Maintaining strength in international affairs, although I may want to change that language to diplomacy or we could test both. in, in the world or in the realm of strength that Republicans have the advantage on that plus three and keeping the American dream alive. [00:08:00] the voters go with the Republicans, three percentage points. so we go to the congressional generic and the actual percentage numbers are 46.3%. We round that up to 46 to 45.8 Republican. very slim, democratic lead. But when you, as we do, round it off, it's 46. 46, and I'll just end by saying this, what, what's going on? the larger forces at play are enough of the public, primarily independent voters who have buyer's remorse with Trump exceedingly and not happy with his ability to deliver. On the economy as they see it, of course, MAGA voters are going to disagree and we're on shaky grounds, the global economy and international relations geopolitics because of this war.
And that has a lot of [00:09:00] independent voters, nervous. So what is happening here is the Democrats have more advantage. The Republicans have some advantage on key issues, but why It's still tied. Is because neither party really has their act together. Remember, in light of this war, MAGA is now facing a potential rift, among the, hardcore America first crowd. And so the, you have that dynamic that's gonna hurt the Republicans. The Democrats are seen as doing better on a lot of issues, and they are gaining momentum in statewide elections. But the public hasn't really seen who is their leader? Who is their natural leader? What is their true platform? What do they really represent? And I don't think we've really seen that come out yet.
John Zogby: Okay. I'm just gonna add and build [00:10:00] on that. I think there are a couple of things that are going on for starters on those issues in particular that the Democrats identify with. On a national level, they are not leading the conversation. they're not able to break through on affordability, breakthrough on healthcare, breakthrough on those kinds of issues, simply because the president of the United States has the bully pulpit and dominates.
The conversation has the ability to change the conversation, which leads, I think, to the second point, which is that the press, even though tough questions do get through at various press conferences or shouting out to the president as these getting on, Marine One, It's still a question that the president controls the answer and the [00:11:00] president is the focal point.
Democrats are simply not able to break through. However, I think that it still hurts them that there is not a unified issue. We saw the issue of affordability work in several mayoral elections and close. Elections simply because the, whoever the Democrat was did not veer from an actual program to deal with, with, affordability.
The other thing is you point out, you mentioned. Democrats are winning. Congressional elections are certainly doing, at the very least, better, in 2026 in special elections than Donald Trump had done in 2024 in those various districts. Because the president doesn't have the bully pulpit. In a congressional district, the candidates have their own television ads, the [00:12:00] candidates have their own message. Candidates are able to go directly to the public, especially to energize their supporters.
It would seem to me that even though the Congressional generic, which is not a perfect number for a lot of reasons, 'cause Americans don't vote nationally, they vote within their district, even though it's an imperfect number. Democrats still have work to do and could very well regain. Their footing.
once campaigns begin in earnest for 2026 and the voters are gonna vote local and hear from the candidates local.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I think I'll just add two things. We're still early in the race, so it's not so much on voters' minds as much yet. When the, when, we get through the spring and [00:13:00] we get into the summer, that's when it starts ramping up, particularly, I think towards the end of the summer. but in the meantime, and this is something I already alluded to and I think you said this yet, because of that. Because of that lack of momentum and awareness and excitement. you have the backdrop of really who, what is MAGA right now and what are the democrats? MAGA says it's a lot of things and they do a lot of things, but there's this rift within the party, particularly over the foreign policy and, gonna make things really difficult and, but the, Democrats on the other side, what is going to be the issue that they shine on that hasn't been determined yet?
John Zogby: [00:14:00] Amen. Okay. This was a special edition and we'll be back when we have more. Have a good day. Okay.
Jeremy Zogby: Have a good one.