Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] did the Trump administration consult any of their allies about this?
John Zogby: the justification even more problematic because not only is this changing with the wind, but there is no exit strategy.
Jeremy Zogby: This is what's called the fog of war, those initial days and initial weeks is just mass confusion.
Jeremy Zogby: I'm asking the question, did Trump just hit the great reset button?
John Zogby: It's Friday, March 6th. That means another edition of real polling in real time with Zogby, we should say with Zogbys because as always there are two of us. Jer, how you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: Good. Yeah. But we say that 'cause Zogby is an institution.
John Zogby: That's right. It is a powerful brand.
Jeremy Zogby: but I'm doing great.
John Zogby: Good. And I am too. it was [00:01:00] exactly one week ago, this moment. It's 10, 12 in the morning we said that looks like the negotiations are going well between the United States and Iran. Both sides are claiming that they've made some progress and are going to kickstart nuclear program talks again. And that was a sense we had when we went to bed. Friday night only to be awakened by massive US and Israeli bombing. And then with each day an escalation throughout the region, Middle East, of course, and, then beyond as well. with that said, we're, gonna talk about Iran today. We're gonna talk somewhat about polling and and then also about, this phenomenon of. What, when is it right to go to war? When is it [00:02:00] wrong to go to war? Is it always wrong to go to war? But let's start with the polling. Last week we made it a point because we had just gotten out of the field and it was before, any notion despite the. of American hardware and Israeli hardware focused on Iran.
John Zogby: We really just didn't know when or if it was going to take place, it so it, it did take place. but our polling the day before indicated that the nation was split. President Trump's handling of Iran. It was just about tied 45 to a rounded 46 approve And we shared the notion that the era of big bumps in the polls are over. If we were to go to war, maybe [00:03:00] there'd be a little bit of a bump, but not much. 'cause there isn't much room for a bump. And then it would dissipate the longer that any war would last. in fact, the early polls that have come out after the attack that support for going to war with Iran actually went down. You have as low as the Reuters poll, in within 24 hours showed that only 27%, supported the action. 49%. it. And then you had a couple of the networks, NBC know of. I, think you gov was out there as well showing that support for the war was at 40, 41% opposition the war that this is after the attack took place, it was 56 to [00:04:00] 60%.
John Zogby: Not only is that not a bump. But that really strongly suggests that the opposition has congealed the president has lost ground, and that this is not a popular war at all. that begs question, is this similar to George W. Bush and Iraq and. It isn't, for, good or for evil. President Bush at least prepared the American people after nine 11. I think he was wrong. I think he created a, worse mess in the Middle East than, before going to war. It created a political mess for himself as well, but in the immediate. [00:05:00] of that war, we saw President Bush's numbers spike and support for the war spike. And so in that sense it worked for President Bush. We also have to say that one of the things that made it different there was a game plan and. game plan was based on a lie, but at least there was a game plan. And for those who still trusted, president of the United States, who incidentally had an overall job approval rating of 69% the day before the war, was a sense that he must know what he's doing. And after nine 11, he had created linkage between, Iraq. A nuclear program and terrorism from the region with President Trump. He's not a [00:06:00] popular president. He's stuck low to mid forties, and he also has no game plan whatsoever. It seems to be changing every day. And so very briefly talk about the polling and the fact that it's been. Problematic so far, but the justification even more problematic because not only is this changing with the wind, but there is no exit strategy. There's confusion. Will it take four weeks? Will it take four months? Will it ever end? Can this be one? has the United States gone in with clear objectives? Has it gone in with clear motives? finally, by our going in, do we make things better or do we make things worse? are all serious, serious considerations. [00:07:00] In one sentence, I believe we make things worse, and we could be headed away from the Aya TOAs, good riddance, but towards a failed state, but a failed state with 90 million people. That rules the Straits of Horus, where I think about 40% of the world's cargo, not just simply oil, but the world's cargo goes through. that's it in brief. What do you think?
Jeremy Zogby: Oh, I've got a lot to say. first off, on the polls, I'm gonna take a different approach. my look at them is, and, I'm actually looking at them again right now and it's pretty much all partisan.
Jeremy Zogby: this list, on real clear politics. look, the, [00:08:00] major networks like C-B-S-N-B-C, and then publications like the Washington Post and Reuters, and then u gov.
Jeremy Zogby: I think we can agree, and I'm gonna be fair here and I'm gonna say tend to be Democrat leaning. and then you have Trafalgar and Insider Advantage and they tend to be, and again, I'm being fair by saying the word tend. tend to be Republican leaning and, we see diametrically different numbers.
Jeremy Zogby: the, democrat leaning ones have a spread of minus, 12 to 18 points, meaning, underwater or, in negative territory in terms of, disapproval and then insider advantage and, Trafalgar. Have a, positive spread of plus 13 and 17 and typical in [00:09:00] this, in partisan hyperpolarized environment.
Jeremy Zogby: There's two different realities.
Jeremy Zogby: and look, I'm not, I'm not selling anybody on the fact, but we don't, we never fall with, I even though those are. pretty substantial polling institutions. I, would say that they're way off the mark and we wouldn't represent when we come out with our poll, I don't think we're, gonna be, in, in, that extreme.
Jeremy Zogby: but regardless of public opinion about the war, and you, hit on this about what are the effects, the first thing I wanna say. we're what, in day five or day six of, this war, and this is what's called the fog of war, that those initial days and initial weeks [00:10:00] is just mass confusion. It's propaganda.
Jeremy Zogby: it's very difficult to know, exactly what's going on. how hard has Israel been pounded? Now, there's this touting in from the American media that the Navy has destroyed and the command of leadership is, and I believe that the command of leadership, have been wiped out.
Jeremy Zogby: but what I am seeing is in undermining of the notion of how well prepared the Iranians have made themselves for this moment. they have been preparing for this moment. For 20 years, at least, if not 30 years, because it's been well known for 30 years that Netanyahu has been waiting for this day.
Jeremy Zogby: This goes back to 96, and you could see the [00:11:00] montage of clips of Benjamin Netanyahu saying that Iran is days or weeks away from having nuclear weapons. So that was 30 years ago. so the Iranians knew it was coming and they have prepared for it. And they have probably, with the assistance of their allies, have built very deep, military chains of commands.
Jeremy Zogby: And even if the centralization of their command has been wiped out, they're prepared to, fight this battle, decentralized. and so that's cutting through the fog of war, which is very, real. That's how it always is. when there's a, war. so we have to ask ourselves some, basic questions.
Jeremy Zogby: first of all, let's say, let's look at the US and let's look at Iran and the objectives. It's very simple. All [00:12:00] Iran has to do is survive.
Jeremy Zogby: Who is Iran? Iran is Persia. What is Persia? Persia is a civilization. Sophisticated civilization that has been around for millennia. I don't think it's very difficult for the Iranians to survive this.
Jeremy Zogby: They've seen a lot, they've been through a lot and they've survived a lot, and there are very sophisticated people. Yes, there will be death. Yes, there will be damage, but they've been through this. Okay. Who is the United States? The United States is the military behemoth. But a lot of military analysts will tell you that the United States and their military design is really still stuck in that Cold War, storming the beaches of Normandy, massive behemoth military force, which is not how wars [00:13:00] are fought anymore.
Jeremy Zogby: So the United States has to conquer. The Iranians have to survive. I think it's much more difficult for the United States to conquer. I think it's easier for the, Iranians to survive. Also, we have to ask the question, what is our tracking record or track record with regime change zero I don't know of really any successful regime change.
Jeremy Zogby: I can't think of one off the top of my head. but then we dive deeper and we asked the question, did the Trump administration consult any of their allies about this? Because if you look beyond this limited scope and then you realize that our allies include South Korea and Japan, and a good deal of Europe, who.[00:14:00]
Jeremy Zogby: Heavily rely on what goes through and comes out of the strait of M, which you indicated maybe you didn't state the statistic and I, but I've stated this before. I'll state it again. 20% of the world's natural gas comes out of the strait of, hor. So all of this petroleum, which has, is the lifeblood of our modern era and our supply chains.
Jeremy Zogby: And I'll just name one thing, fertilizer
Jeremy Zogby: dependent on petroleum. so now we're getting into agriculture and food, not to mention the global economy. So did the Trump Administa administration even seek, the advice or, the opinions of, and let's not forget about India. nations that are all gonna be brought into this.
Jeremy Zogby: [00:15:00] It doesn't look like they did. It really just looks like they were consulting with Israel. so that just makes this an even greater quagmire to put potentially blow up. I would end with, this point, I think looking at this. From, the biggest of all. Biggest picture. I'm hearing some military analysts talk about the fact that the United States, once this is done, the United States is gonna be gone from the Middle East.
Jeremy Zogby: there, there's, probably not going to be any more presence in the United States because of, what a blunder this could very well turn out to be. But even beyond that. I'm asking the question, did Trump just hit [00:16:00] the great reset button? What do I mean by that? I'll give a very playful analogy that'll make that very clear.
Jeremy Zogby: when, I was a kid and my brothers and I got our first Nintendo, which enthralled us and kept us busy for hours to the point where. whether you said it was dinner time or you said, need to get some chores done, and we would say, five more minutes and you got tired because we weren't listening.
Jeremy Zogby: All you had to do was go up to that game system and hit that reset button and everything went black. And all that time that we poured into that gone. the notion of the Great Reset, which is a real notion, it's discussed at very high levels and it has been discussed for years, is very similar. One major event can literally hit the button [00:17:00] and reset everything that we know as the global economy and, I don't have the entire answer to that, but I can definitely see how this event.
Jeremy Zogby: Could trigger something like that because of everything that I just laid out. Resetting maps, resetting alliances, resetting where the center of power and trade agreements and supply chains, have to be rebuilt monetarily, financially. wow, all, for what?
John Zogby: Wow, Jer. we asked two interesting questions on our poll that just came out last week, and. without repeating the question verbatim, do you [00:18:00] consider Israel to be more of an ally or more of a liability for the United States? And then we also, have context to this, you consider NATO to be, an ally or a liability? And the interesting thing is that plurality. This time considered Israel to be a liability an asset. whereas on the other hand it was flipped where, and NATO was considered more of an asset or ally and less of a liability, which has sparked an interesting conversation. Especially within the Democratic Party where the numbers were much more lopsided, showing Israel as a liability so much to the point where I guess we'd [00:19:00] call Gavin Newsom, the front runner, or one of the two or three front runners for the Democratic nomination.
John Zogby: At this point in time for 2028, Gavin Newsom has begun a full on critique. In fact, condemnation of Israel, calling it an apartheid state and calling it out for its genocide the, in, Gaza. a debate that, have been taking place for a long time but isn't taking place. and I wonder, this relationship with Israel, in Iran. I, that going to, as far as public opinion is concerned, is that going to change things? Are we, are, is the United States gonna go, are the Americans gonna go more in the direction considering Israel to be [00:20:00] a liability or are they going to see it as a loyal ally taking on, a corrupt, Dictatorial regimes.
John Zogby: I wonder, I seem to think the democratic parties, close relationship or special relationship with Israel may be chipping away at such a rate that, it, may be considered among Democrats more toxic than it's worth.
Jeremy Zogby: let's, start basic and go deep Right now the, price of oil per barrel. It went up to $86.
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: Some people think it's gonna go well above a hundred if this doesn't stop. But even if it stops now, you still have six days of delays, which at some point is gonna have to kick in.[00:21:00]
Jeremy Zogby: I don't think you can erase that, but it doesn't look like this is going to stop. I, don't see the Iranians saying, alright, we're, willing to go back to the table even if they were to say that. Israel and the US are gonna pound harder, right? So they're in, in, they're in a, in an existential crisis, a crisis of survival.
Jeremy Zogby: They're not going to stop. The United States probably isn't gonna stop. Israel's not gonna stop. So what that means is, we have that prolonged, issue with the strait of horn moves, which is, as that goes on. Oil's going to go up. As oil goes up, the prices of everything are going to go up, which means the affordability crisis goes to the next level, which means voters awaken to the fact that the affordability crisis going to the next level is tied to this event.
Jeremy Zogby: And [00:22:00] Donald Trump's decision to take out a major player. that's the first level of it. All of which is to say is that's a grand opportunity for those within the Democratic party who, have, let's say, let's say, have, have the courage to take that on. It looks like Newsom does right now.
Jeremy Zogby: He's pretty much the only one I'm, hearing, taking that issue head on. I think it's a smart, strategic move from his, point of view. But then, other voters not, and not the majority. This will be a minority of voters and it'll probably come from the moderate and the independent voters. At some point it's gonna dawn on them.
Jeremy Zogby: People are gonna realize this. When we had the first strike in Iran, last June in [00:23:00] 2025, that was just weeks after the whole Epstein Affairs reemerged. Remember when the Epstein stuff came out in 2016 and then it went away and then it reemerged, it really, re it resurfaced around May, June.
Jeremy Zogby: I thought, maybe it's, maybe that's a coincidence. But it was just three weeks ago that they had this massive dumping of 3 million files and for a second time. The strikes on Iran happened within a few weeks after that, a percentage of voters are, gonna make that connection. Whe whether it's, whether there's anything there, or not.
Jeremy Zogby: Voters are gonna put those two together and say, wow, is our leadership compromised? Is our leadership blackmailed? Does that mean that our foreign policy is being dictated by Benjamin Netanyahu? [00:24:00] I do really think even if it's five or 10 or 15% of, voters or, a a, critical mass of moderate and in independent voters are gonna start to think about those things and say, wow.
Jeremy Zogby: And to go back to your point about whether, the perception is that Israel is strategic in terms of an asset or, a liability, it's. I see those numbers growing and so whatever candidate, regardless of whatever party will read that and run with that, I think is gonna be very interesting in terms of political messaging and, it, it'll be a new era of politics, at least in the modern sense.
John Zogby: my head is swimming. There's a lot to talk about, but let's, publicly right now. I'd like to ask in [00:25:00] another, in our next poll American attitudes towards us hegemony. do they want as a superpower militarily? Do they want a total domination of the Western hemisphere by the United States? Are they comfortable with the world being broken up by the three major superpowers where it's the Americas for United States, it's Eastern central Europe. For Russia, it's Eastern and Southern Asia. For, for China. Are they comfortable with a world like that? 'cause that seems, we're like we're heading in that direction. I've got a number of other ideas, but I think we aired out some good ones today. And I hope you folks think so. and so please don't hesitate to write to us in whatever form that and platform you're [00:26:00] listening, watching, or reading us. And have a good week
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. Let me just close by saying, we follow polls, we follow pollsters. I'm proud of the fact that. I think we're the only ones that really go this deep, in, in terms of the geopolitical analysis, how it's connected to public opinion and where it could all go and, frankly, touching on some, topics that may be uncomfortable for some people, but hey.
Jeremy Zogby: You can't ignore it. so I think we do that very well, and I don't really think that there's anyone else in our industry polling industry that does that. And so I'm proud of that. And, I hope our viewers and listeners agree.
John Zogby: If there is someone else that does, we'll hear from them very shortly.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah,
John Zogby: Have a good week.
Jeremy Zogby: Yep, you too.
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