John Zogby: [00:00:00] Public opinion here in the United States is more pessimistic on a personal level, but also on a national level.
Jeremy zogby: maga essentially is split over this.
John Zogby: it would appear at this point, public opinion wise, anyway, that the president is upside down.
Jeremy zogby: Once Americans start asking themselves about the serious consequences of the war, the costs versus the benefit and long-term commitment, the numbers are, telling us that is catastrophic.
John Zogby: It's Thursday, March 19th, and we have a special edition of the Zogby Report. Real end on scripted. I'm here with my son, Jeremy, as I am, every week. How are you this week?
Jeremy zogby: we're, doing [00:01:00] well. we have very interesting results from our first poll, among US voters. On the topic of the biggest topic of probably the year, the, war in Iran. And this is our first. A poll that taken the last time we did a poll, we had results on the eve of the war. So this is, a new ground, new territory. And got a lot.
John Zogby: Yeah, we do. And so let's get right into it because, president Trump is now without an official declaration. He is a wartime. President that's been going on two full weeks. And let's see what, if any movement, there's, been. So we're gonna start out, and, we should point out we got these about 10:30 PM on Wednesday night.
John Zogby: So these are really, [00:02:00] hot off the press. So for the, the current situation overall. Donald Trump, receives a 44% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating that is, three points lower than what we had last month. And his, disapproval rating is four points higher or worse than it was last month.
John Zogby: I will only add, there are many numbers here that we can share, but those all important independent voters, whereas in February they had given him. A 36% approval on the war, actually before it started, it is now a 37% approval rating, all of which is to say that historically, as we've noted many times, presidents normally [00:03:00] get bumps.
John Zogby: The numbers, even short term or lower bumps, we've said many times before the, era of the big bump is over because the Democrats and Republicans are so hardened. But what we're seeing here right now are small little bumps, but they're not working in President Trump's favor, even though he is declaring that the militarily, the war is over all it's necessary as to cleanup, we should be outta there in a month.
John Zogby: Or so, but I'm gonna let you take a look at some of the numbers internally, on that approval and disapproval once I give the overall approval on the president's handling of the war in Iran. And here's where we see that his overall approval on Iran is at 43. no real change, two points lower. Than it [00:04:00] was on the eve of the war.
John Zogby: 43% approve of his handling of the, war in Iran. 52% oppose his handling of the war in Iran. It had only been 46% disapproving last month, so his approvals down a couple of points. Disapproval is worse by six points, and among independents, virtually the same. 36% approve of his handling of the war in Iran.
John Zogby: 56%, oppose. And finally what I'll add is that among blacks, 69% disapprove of his handling of Iran among Hispanics, 51% disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran. So it would appear at this point, public opinion wise, anyway, that the president is upside down. On the assessment of [00:05:00] the American people you wanna pick up from there?
Jeremy zogby: Yeah, I designed questions. To start broad and then to drill down. Of course, you just gave the broader aspects of the very telling aspects of, approval where he stands, overall as, his job as president and Iran. But then we went to a series and I'm gonna, I'm gonna go through the topics first and then the data, just, to see how this, is looking to. Really get at the heart of Americans are and, really get at whether they're concerned or not. so first we, we asked, bit more specific of a question, Trump's military operations, have they been effective [00:06:00] ineffective? we drill down further by asking from a cost benefit analysis. do the benefits outweigh the cost or do the cost outweigh the benefits? Then we get to the heart of the matter, which is always the heart of the matter, when you're dealing with a war and that support for boots on the ground. Now we start off with just, broadly support or opposition to us, boots on the ground, then as you have done over the years. We shift it to ti a time-based, scenarios of you support opposition for boots on the ground, in Iran for one month, three months, for six months, and then for a year. and then I, think what becomes even more of consequence, is asking. [00:07:00] The question of after two weeks, right? in full into this war, and this is a major war, do voters want the president to halt operations or continue until Iran is defeated?
John Zogby: Okay.
Jeremy zogby: of course, what will be the impact? Their fin financial situation, and having seen this play played out for, two weeks? With what's going on in the strai of horror moves, Americans are starting to formulate opinions. They're even starting to feel the effects of this war. The price of gas was, below $3 at about $3 a month ago nationally. Now it's, above three 50, and that's just two weeks into the war with all the chaos, on in the strait of who moves. and then last but not least, what is the impact of. credibility on the world stage. Are we more credible after this [00:08:00] as a result of Trump's actions are? Are we less credible?
Jeremy zogby: And so getting right into it, effective versus ineffective voters weigh in. They're actually split dead down the middle 46% to date, say the president's military operations has been effective, and 46% say ineffective. When pivoting to the cost versus the benefit analysis, which is very important 'cause I'm hearing on the ground a lot of people raise that question. the president did what he did and we need to ask ourselves as we continue, do the costs outweigh the benefit or the benefit outweigh the cost. If you ask the voters, the costs outweigh the benefits. 46% said that. Versus, who believe the benefits, outweigh the cost.
Jeremy zogby: What I found particularly interesting, actually I'm gonna, I'm gonna go to [00:09:00] support for boots on the ground. US boots on the ground, this is where things get really interesting. 27% say they support us boots on the ground. This is not a popular, war, to take it to that level. 63% oppose when you look at Republicans. is where it gets really interesting. 48% say they support us boots on the ground. 41% oppose, maga essentially is split over this. And this is something that's going to, thi this is a potential reckoning for, the Republican party going forward in, into the midterms. And, I think. For the future of maga that's a conversation they're gonna have to deal with, shortly.
Jeremy zogby: Now, in each case, I'm not gonna take you through the US boots on the ground, one month, three months, six months in a year. I would just tell you in each scenario [00:10:00] the support falls and the opposition goes up and it goes as high. When we get to a year of US boots on the ground, 68% oppose if they know US boots will be on the grounds in Iran for a year. support, on expectations for financial impact. We're talking personal finances. 20% of voters thought in the end, they will be more positively impacted by this the reality of 62% today who are expecting this to have negative impact. And remember with each day that the strait of M is closed. You can expect that percentage to go up. for now take it, to this question. has happened to America's standing on the world stage? [00:11:00] 40% think that today we are more credible, as a result. 48% believe that the United States has lost credibility on the world stage. And actually I've got one more question for you, which also gets to the heart of the matter. Would voters sending Americans, sons and daughters to fight in Iran? 31% support. 60% oppose. All in all. which is to say that. The president may have some support to date in terms of what has happened. the public is very divided over that, although clearly on the side of independence, they're not happy with what's going on. But once Americans start asking themselves about the serious consequences of the war, the costs versus the benefit and long-term commitment, the [00:12:00] numbers are, telling us that is catastrophic.
John Zogby: as you're talking, I'm reminded of the parallel with Vietnam. The, these kinds of questions were starting to be asked by pollsters in 1968 and in 1969 when, this is now, five years. Into a major escalation of the war in Vietnam at that point in time, 550, 500 60,000 troops. And Americans beginning to wonder, have we reached a point of diminishing returns?
John Zogby: Is it worth it? what do you tell the mothers and fathers of servicemen who have been lost? That, that your son or daughter died in vain. Here we are in two weeks. this is what we've learned among the things we've learned from Vietnam. There [00:13:00] are also other impacts and we ask about those, because we know it's widely reported that closing the straits of Herm, have already impact the flow.
John Zogby: Of gasoline and fertilizer, natural gas, crude oil and so on. And is, it being felt at the, supermarket? at the same time, we know that, job creation has ground to a halt that there was a negative job creation, at the end of January. And now, because we do feature this number, pretty much every time we talk about our polling among that vital group of independents, only 30%.
John Zogby: Felt that their financial situation would improve, 57% said [00:14:00] worse. And then, we did ask, as we have, mainly asked e ever since the presidency of Bill Clinton, around 1997 or so. so this is not unique to Trump. Are you proud or ashamed that Donald Trump is president of the United States? 36% said that they were proud.
John Zogby: 48% said that they're ashamed and among independents that president and the GOP are going to need to get through the midterms. 27% said that they were proud. 57, 50% said that they were ashamed. Whose war are we fighting? And this is the last question we'll go over. Whose interests are best served? 32% said that only Israel's best interests are served, not the United States.[00:15:00]
John Zogby: 32%, 41% said the US and Israel are best served by this war, and 13% said that neither are served. By this war, and again, a very interesting, breakdown by party among Democrats. There's been a, shift in views on Israel. As we've seen, 46% said that only Israel's interests are, being served. Not the us. 46%, 19% said the US and Israel are best served.
John Zogby: And 20% said neither, and I think we have it. Let me just sum up by saying again, down through history until the last few decades, presidents have actually [00:16:00] desired to be wartime presidents as part of their legacy. It's seen as a way of becoming immortal, of becoming seen as victorious. Of becoming seen as larger than the job, larger than history itself.
John Zogby: In this instance, at least so far, we have gone to war, but, the, proof that this will benefit the American people or benefit the president himself, is not there yet.
Jeremy zogby: The amazing thing is you go back to the beginning of Trump presidency, and clearly he had a mandate, he had an electoral mandate, and what's even more impressive the reaction from his opposition was less intense than it was in when he won in 2016. would go so far as to say that the president actually had [00:17:00] something like a honeymoon his first 100 days. of course there was still controversy, there were still media attacks, but it was nothing compared to 2016, all of which is to say the president had a mandate, an electoral mandate. He had a broad base support. had support among cohorts, that he, Republicans, in this modern era typically don't have. and really it was his agenda to set, but one ca one chaotic event after the other regarding tariffs. the blunder of how to deal with the Epstein files, which was a major promise on the campaign trail, followed by the first round of Iranian strikes, followed by this next. even ramped up version, the president has sown the seeds of chaos and, [00:18:00] I is really building the case, against him himself. I just find it staggering that one thing after the other appears to be, a major blender of his own doing.
John Zogby: Yeah, he's been an activist president and, by all appearances, he's made things worse. The important thing is that. Public opinion here in the United States is more pessimistic on a personal level, but also on a national level. for the players themselves, mainly the United States and Israel and our allies, there is more pessimism than there was before.
John Zogby: I think Israel still believes that it will merge from this war Having. Flattened, [00:19:00] the, region. But there's so many pieces to pick up, no matter how people feel about nato. NATO has been a part of, an international alliance now for, decades, not, a century, but, many decades. And that's in, in tatters.
John Zogby: So there's a lot of post-war work to do and not the sort of thing that one summit or two summits in a task force are gonna take care of. This has been an activist president and it, by all appearances, things are worse today than they were. And that's all I have to say.
Jeremy zogby: that's a lot to chew on. we gave our listeners and viewers a lot of data, but the reality is, we have a lot more
John Zogby: Yeah. And we'll get into it next podcast 'cause we've got Democrats and Republicans and [00:20:00] primaries and, to, talk about. We also have the generic congressional, which I find very, interesting. So let's do a podcast in, next couple of days and talk about some politics.
Jeremy zogby: Sounds good.
John Zogby: Okay? Have a good week.