John Zogby: [00:00:00] Mr. Trump has to find some additional support somewhere.
Jeremy Zogby: war, plain and simple is not popular.
John Zogby: What we're seeing here is real slippage among independents
John Zogby: Good morning. It's Monday, April 20th. And this is another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. I'm John, my son Jeremy is there. Hello everybody. And real polling in real time. this is the hot off the press. We did a poll of 1,001 Likely Voters nationwide. margin of error plus or minus 3.2.
We conducted it Friday and Saturday. This is about as fresh as you can get. Here we are Monday morning. Top line is that the president's approval rating slipped. A point, [00:01:00] among the lowest that we've had him so far. And while there are other areas in which he's slipped, we're gonna spend a lot of time, talking about the war in Iran, of course, because that's, the, big issue that, and affordability where the president has also slipped.
And why don't I turn it over to you. You've got the numbers right in front of you, Jerry.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Thank you. so right off the bat, as you mentioned, the approval rating, on. Trump's job as president. The overall approval rating from likely voters, and again, this was conducted Friday and Saturday over the weekend, 1,001 likely voters with a margin of error plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, and we have the president at a 43 approval.
I do think that is our lowest that we've
in the 10 rounds that we've been cover, covering likely voters since, 2025. [00:02:00] And his disapproval is at 55. and I do think that is the highest disapproval. So he's underwater 12 percentage points among electorate. If we look at Democrats, no surprise that 87 disapprove of his job.
What I found striking, this is the highest I've seen it remember when we do approval disapproval, it's a scale. each side approve and disapprove. respondents are offered, or somewhat when we zero in on Democrats and their 87% disapproval, 80% strongly disapprove no question about it that has been intensified by what's going on. in Iran, which is almost two weeks now, you look at Republicans, 81% approval of the President. I would say only. though 51% strongly [00:03:00] approve that as Republicans, I would still say only because I would've expected to see that higher. we have to, settle things by looking at, as we always do, at the independent voters
John Zogby: Incidentally, and I don't, I rarely interrupt you that 81% approval among Republicans is the lowest among Republicans. We've had it at 82 and 83, and let's not split hairs, but the fact is, the trajectory of support among Republicans is, slipping.
Jeremy Zogby: So what about independence? back to what I was saying, 33% approve, 63% disapprove. we're gonna look at only, down on three issues of the president, maybe four. we have to talk about, his handling of Iran, right? 'cause we're already more or less talking about that. And that's the news of the day.
That's been the news for several weeks. Right now. the, [00:04:00] public has, the president 40% approval and 55% disapproval. again, looking at independence, that approval is as low as 29%, and it's as high on the disapproval side as 60. 1% war, plain and simple is not popular. the economy, which is the always, the top issue as we always show over the months and over the, the years, the president only gets a 40% approval, and he gets a 56% disapproval and, 16 percentage points under water. That's not good. I will say the immigration crime front, the president is a plus one. 48% of voters approve. [00:05:00] 47% of voters disapprove. on crime, it's actually 47. 47. But what we really need to dive into is the war. Now, we already know. With the backdrop that the disapproval is very high regarding his handling of military operations, but I want to explore different angles here. One of which is how the public sees this in terms of a cost benefit analysis. 40% say the benefits outweigh the cost. 48% say the cost outweigh the benefits. that's almost half of voters. When we ask about boots on the ground, which is the most important because a lot of other polls that you see coming out essentially are asking, voters to approve, disapprove support, oppose what he has done to date. Airstrikes, blockades, what we're talking about [00:06:00] in the question of boots on the ground is long-term commitment. And when, you look at that specific angle. 28% of voters who say they would support boots on the ground in Iran versus 60% who oppose, that's not going to be, up to this point, a smart political move for the president to get bogged down in what increasingly looks like a geopolitical quagmire and, and quite, frankly, a global financial. and, I'll just close with this question here. I've got more, but, I don't want to, I don't want to dominate conversation here, but then we asked since President Trump's and Israel's, move to, to strike Iran, what has happened to America's standing in the world? [00:07:00] my sense is that's going to be another important issue to g. because we are living in a moment, increasingly where the United States arguably is on shaky grounds facing a multipolar world, and less so a unipolar dominant world led by the United States. And when we asked the public since, the war began, what has happened to America standing in the world? 41% say America is more credible. 48% say. America is less credible, and that kind of gives us a clear indication of where we're at today.
John Zogby: Yeah, it does. And, the war obviously has taken its toll, on public opinion. but so too has the affordability crisis. And, we have a couple of questions here that I think are very telling. When we first started, [00:08:00] our polling on the president's handling of the affordability crisis, 38% approved of his handling of it.
That's back in January 56. Disapproved. Those numbers have stayed, about the same. 36 approve, 57 disapprove. That's a real upside down number That's. Nine negative 19%, but among independents, 25% approve and 64% disapprove. When we look at the numbers of Democrats, it's clear the President's not gonna get sufficient support among Democrats, and he's not gonna get sufficient support among Democrats for his party.
So in order to get to a majority for the GOP. Either he has to dampen democratic enthusiasm or he has to sell his policies more [00:09:00] successfully to independence. What we're seeing here is real slippage among independents today, only 25%. proof of his handling of, affordability. 64% disapproved. Take it away from partisanship.
And how about your personal finances under, Trump? Do you expect them to get better? 39% say, expect them to get better. 52%. expect them to get worse. That's identical January to April, and we're getting closer to the election among independents. While 35% in March expected their personal finances to get better.
Now 30% feel that their finance, personal finances will get better under Trump. And he's under the gun and there's pundits out there who are now [00:10:00] starting to talk, I think still prematurely, but starting to talk about a sweep. By Democrats in the house in November and a real potential for Democrats, not a majority, but a, potential for Democrats to win a majority in the Senate.
I'm gonna hold off any long-term predictions 'cause anything can happen, but I will say that today, it's looking like the Democrats have real possibilities to win back Congress.
Jeremy Zogby: I would just add to that, that in looking at this over the long term, and, I want to, remind folks that, I've launched a, substack, called the Independent Pollster, and the handle is at Jeremy Zogby.
So you could look that up on Substack and I mentioned that because, the, first. A post that I did looked at a number of key voter groups that were very much in [00:11:00] Trump's camp, after the November election. And, surprising groups that, most folks who don't closely follow this wouldn't associate with, as pro-Trump.
Of course, over the year there has been attrition, and one of those groups in particular are union voters, and I bring that up because of your analysis about. The president either needing to depress, democratic turnout or, find a way to get some of it. And his foot in the door, was, union voters.
Union voters, historically, often democratic voters turned out wild for Trump and had strong approval for him until recently he's been slipping, now he still has his foot in the door with them. But I just wanted to illuminate in light of what you said. that is one area where he could maintain a stronghold.
Though we have [00:12:00] seen him slip with that group and putting it in the context of the war in Iran, which, I think is likely to, further accelerate the already accelerated affordability crisis that, would not help, the president's standing. With, with this group union voters.
John Zogby: I know when I hear a union voters. I have to stop and back off a little bit because I grew up in an era where, unions were still very strong and where the typical American Union member was a blue collar. Worker conservative values, but a, new deal, voter, a great society voter today, the members of unions, na nationwide are down, though not at their low in the seventies and eighties, but a majority of union members, [00:13:00] our public employees.
And, teachers who tend to be more or less on the liberal side, nonetheless, of those blue collar, union voters that are left, they're always torn between the extremes on social values, more for a traditional society, white, patriarchal, and so on. And less, but also, tending to favor, new deal programs.
but I think the thing is here that, and our theme is that, Mr. Trump has to find some additional support somewhere. And, and he's bleeding right now. You have found a group though that, is a real potential. Source, and I frankly thought it was surprising. you wanna just move [00:14:00] right into that group.
Jeremy Zogby: I'm only gonna name them, because, I, that is going to be the third subject of, the next sub substack. And I, do want folks to look into that. And by the way, sub stacks are going to be interactive. the charts, are interactive. and, and they're interspersed with current analysis of, what's going on.
But we're talking about, parents with young children. And that is a group to watch. I don't want to dive in 'cause I, I think we've already given a lot of numbers for our listeners and viewers to, to chew on. But, let's just say that the next substack, coming out within the next 24 hours focusing on voter profiles, you should know and understand closely is that of parents with young kids.
And I fit them into the unique context of parents today in the 2020s. And provide some interactive charts [00:15:00] for you to understand their world, Val, their worldview and how they navigate, today's world.
John Zogby: Okay, that sounds good. We, of course, are gonna continue on, and discuss other aspects, of the poll. That's it for me right now. I, Do wanna call attention to folks, that I write a weekly column, for the Washington Secrets of the Washington Examiner. Been doing it for 17 years now, and it's a weekly report card of whoever the president is and it comes out on late Friday mornings.
And I'll tease you a little bit. By suggesting, we wondered which of our recent presidents, meaning in the last 50 years, would be a good and not so good role models for little kids at home. And the results are, I think, a little bit surprising. [00:16:00] I, in fact, Quite surprising and so we're calling our attention to what we're writing, but JIRA's, substack are certainly something to, a very meat and, and very worthwhile to look at.
Okay. We'll be back soon, I think.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. we need to talk in the next podcast and, Let's, let's commit on, on, on error right now to doing one, week. Another one to look at the, congressional generic ballot 'cause we have those numbers.
John Zogby: Yes we do. Okay. That's what we'll do. I commit.
Jeremy Zogby: Alright, me too.
John Zogby: Okay. Bye-Bye.