Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] we tested 11 issues that we asked. Voters in this poll, And the Democrats were awarded seven,
John Zogby: you had folks in Virginia last night Jer who were saying, I hate this process, but since the Republicans have done it, I've gotta vote for it here in Virginia so the Democrats can do it.
Jeremy Zogby: They have the momentum, but I would say it's, far from over at this moment.
John Zogby: It's Wednesday, April 22nd and it's another special edition of Real Polling in real Time with Zogby. As always, I'm here with Jeremy Zogby. How you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I'm good. How are you?
John Zogby: Good, thanks. And I am too, and we have numbers, and so when we get them, we wanna share them immediately. This is about the Battle for Congress in 2026.
And I'm gonna start with a little bit of context. [00:01:00] first piece of context is that it's a very important election. And it's, if we treat, president Trump's second go around as president, it's his second first term. And historically, the, new president takes a beating in the first midterm elections afterward, after his inauguration.
And it looks like that's what might very well happen as we share the numbers today. But I wanna create a context here. And suggest to you that the Republicans are reminding me of the hapless New York Mets. The Mets have lost 11 games in a row, and they're in a real slump, but the Republicans have lost over 30 elections.
Just since November of, 2024 [00:02:00] Trump's victory and yesterday was a big loss for the Republicans. They started, a methodology back in Texas. a year ago where they decided that, they would move on, redistricting their congressional districts early and take advantage of the, control of both legislatures and the governor's mansion in Texas and redistrict, in an off year.
I halfway through when redistricting is supposed to take place after the decennial. Census and as a, matter of fact, they won that process and, are in a position to gain five additional seats to build their majority. They won in Texas. They gained a seat in Missouri. They've [00:03:00] gained a couple of seats in North Carolina, and of course there was a reaction.
California Deeply blue state now, With a referendum, voters have voted to create five new Democratic districts, but yesterday was Virginia's term and, the way Virginia stacked up as a swing state. there, are today seven democratic congressional districts and four Republican. Districts, the redrawn districts by both houses of the, legislature in Virginia, which won last night by public referendum.
Leave Virginia now with probably 10. Congressional districts a pickup of four for the Democrats and one Republican [00:04:00] district. I find the entire process distasteful at some point in time. We've gotta get back to, the, the constitution, which mandates every 10 years and not have this be not simply a political process, but you had folks in Virginia last night Jer who were saying, I hate this process, but since the Republicans have done it, I've gotta vote for it here in Virginia so the Democrats can do it. So with that said, Democrats are about to be poisoning themselves to win a majority.
Of the congressional seats in November and yesterday's decision in Virginia, plus the victories that they've been having, the resignations of several Republicans from Congress and at least a couple more to come [00:05:00] right now, their, majority in the House of Representatives is only two seats, and They're getting very close to getting out of a majority, even before anybody votes in November. What do you show for the Congressional generic? Last month it was tied between Democrats and Republicans, but we got a different story today.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, that's right. last month we showed. It, at a, tie, a statistical dead heat of 46 to 46 Democrats and Republicans, one month later. and then, that this poll was fielded over the weekend, April 17th and 18th, we see the Democrats now move four points ahead in the congressional generic ballot, 48 44. we tested 11 issues that we asked. Voters in this poll, who [00:06:00] is in a better position, to, perform better on each issue. And the Democrats were awarded seven, voters saying that voters think they do better on the issue and re Republicans got four. key is that of those four republicans are viewed as handling better. Two of them are the top issues. And that would be crime and immigration, which by a long shot voters say Republicans deal better with.
But the other caveat is of those seven, that voters say Democrats deal better or handle better than Republicans. Two of those are also the top, top issues. And that would be affordability by a long shot. Voters say Democrats handle. are better positioned to handle the affordability crisis and Americans health and healthcare reform. when we really [00:07:00] boil it down, the top four issues are health and healthcare, affordability, crisis, immigration and crime. Republicans get to, Democrats get two, but what we see is that today Democrats are ahead by four and that's after nearly two months. With a war, that I think we're already start starting to show signs of fatigue.
we mentioned in our last, podcast, only 28% of, voters would support boots on the ground. 60% would not. support boots on the ground. And, another key question said, should the president stop all military operations right now, or should he continue and finish off the job? 48% said halt at all.
Right now, only 40% said continue and finish off the job. And so that's where I see things moving and why we went from a [00:08:00] tie last month to Democrats ahead today. That the war doesn't seem to be doing very well. there's one other thing I wanna drill down on maybe three or four demographics regarding the Congressional generic.
Of course, independents, 44% say, that they would vote for the Democratic candidate versus 33 who say they'd vote for the Republican. I wanna look at Hispanics another. Key swing of voting block, 55% say today they would vote for the Democratic candidate versus 37 who say they'd vote for the Republican. And I'm gonna go to union voters because
them very intriguing. they have been this cycle, in the ma the MAGA camp, and we show today 47%. Say they'd go with the [00:09:00] Democratic candidate and 46% go with the Republican candidate. So I, Democrats have the advantage right now. They have the momentum, but I would say it's, far from over at this moment.
John Zogby: Yeah, the numbers lead me to ask a number of key questions. So as the campaign progresses, obviously it's to the benefit of Democrats to talk about their strengths, and that's gonna be affordability and, healthcare. As you point out, it's, Trump's strength. The GOP talk about crime and to talk about immigration.
Although the margins over Democrats on crime and immigration are not as great for the Republicans as the margins that the Democrats have on healthcare [00:10:00] and, affordability over the Republicans, but what I'm curious about is the president keeps talking about the war. And when he's not confusing people on the war saying one thing to have Iran or someone else deny it the next day, or to really try to understand what on earth is going on at any given moment.
What we do know is from our own polling, the longer this is protracted, the less it works. In the president's favor, why would he continue to be talking about Iran? just from a strictly political point of view, what's the net gain here? It's in his interest to get this thing over with and over with quickly.
And frankly, I think he's boxed himself. in a corner painted himself into a corner. So I don't know what his out [00:11:00] is. And so from the vantage point of today, he's like the Mets. he's as further away from, winning the, division, than he was, a month ago, just like they are. I'm curious, politically only why he.
Finds it in his interest to keep talking about it and talking tough about it.
Jeremy Zogby: you're right. I think he is boxed in and I, think you know what that means is, he can't get out
he can't stop it because there was this pivot a few weeks ago to declare victory. And, to say everything has been accomplished. He didn't say mission accomplished, but we've won.
We've destroyed the, leadership, we've destroyed the infrastructure. They can't negotiate. But the fact of the matter is straight remains [00:12:00] closed. it, his, it reopened maybe for 24 18 hours, and the president can declare victory all he wants and even pull the military away and pretend that they won. But the straight would remain closed until Iran, essentially gets some of the, points that it wants from, the negotiation process. it looks like, to your point, being boxed in, is that the war drags on, might even drag on, similar to the, Ukrainian war where here we are four years later and the war is still being fought.
The battlefields are, are, still, unfortunately, filled with, casualties and destruction. it's gonna be very difficult to, Bring an end to this war soon. Although I don't wanna lose [00:13:00] sight of the fact that there is supposed to be a meeting with President Xi. It was supposed to be, in late April, but it looks like it's been pushed to May, and that would be between Trump and she, and that potentially could be an out, there maybe could be some kind of resolution.
I would keep my eyes set on that meeting. which is, which I understand is set for mid-May.
John Zogby: mid-May is what I understand too, and I can end this by saying, and you heard it here exclusively. I have no idea if the meeting is gonna take place or if they're gonna be able to resolve. I don't have an idea about a lot of things. Here and that's what's bothering me. There's just a bundle of confusion and I'll sign off that way.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. we. our head up and keep watching the [00:14:00] data. I, think in the meantime we are seeing some pretty clear trends. so
John Zogby: Okay. good discussion. Thanks.
Jeremy Zogby: yep. Have a great weekend.