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Jeremy Zogby: The President has proven to be an agent of chaos, and by definition, if you are an agent of chaos, you can't be an agent of stability.
John Zogby: if voters think their vote doesn't count, they ought to look. At recent history and how many elections have been won just by a handful of votes,
John Zogby: I don't see how Trump revives his numbers.
Jeremy Zogby: I don't really see how the president gets out of this. Even if he declares victory and pulls away, there are still consequences that have to play out,
John Zogby: It is Tuesday, April 7th, and welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And here we are. I'm John, and there's Jeremy. And we're going to talk off the cuff [00:01:00] today actually about where things stand politically, a very important day of the president held a news conference yesterday in which is laid down the law with Iran apparently, and said that by 8:00 PM the Eastern time today, April 7th, if there was no, whatever you wanna call it, capitulation, ceasefire deal cessation of. Of hostile acts by Iran that we would, in the President's words, bomb, everything in sight, bridges and critical infrastructure, oil facilities, gas lines, and so on. that seems pretty clear, but none of us really know what exactly, that means. It does appear clear that [00:02:00] Iran and its leadership are not ready. capitulate, there was a very strong statement from their leadership saying that they themselves were willing to, put themselves in front of the bombs and, absorb, death and destruction on behalf of Iran. They claim that 40% of their public is willing to do the same thing, and quite frankly, we have heard. Anecdotally, via social media and, very careful, media interviews that there are people who are actually marching in the streets against the Ayatollah just a few weeks ago, are ready to lay themselves down, and protect Iran and its civilization from this, violence, and so on. So where do things stand? [00:03:00] in the United States, support for the war in at least one poll is down to about 33%. we had it at 43%, but our poll was 10 days ago. And our poll also indicated that time is not on the president's side. And so this is two. 10 days, two weeks later, and I suspect that 33%, figure is correct. Secondly, as far as the congress, watchers and punditry are concerned, there is almost an assumption now that barring anything unforeseen, Democrats will retake the House of Representatives. They only need a few seats and they lead and have a track record thus far, which suggests that could happen. And then to actually, yesterday and today [00:04:00] for the first time, there's real talk among, congress watchers that the Democrats who need six seats. regain a Senate majority could actually win a Senate majority, a little dicier than it is in the house. But frankly, no one was willing to go on the record before that. what we see of the president is that his average, approval rating is the lowest it's been thus far. Among the aggregators, it's down to a 41%. rating, but a 57% average disapproval rating. And so unlike, and I've made this point before, unlike George W. Bush going into Iraq in 2003, president of the United States starts out. [00:05:00] With a level of unpopularity, going into this war that George W. Bush had going out of Iraq. And what we've learned from our polling is that, this war is not going to help the president at all. So what's in it? For the president. it, these are questions I'm not sure we can answer. is he a true believer? is he following what his mentor Roy Cohen told him to do at the beginning of his, career? Just declare victory. Never, admit defeat, or, Only because this is already in the public sphere, and it's not simply among critics, but also you're hearing this from MAGA people and [00:06:00] well-known Republicans. Is something wrong with the President? Some is, is he mentally incapacitated and unable to perceive a real a reality that's outside of his own mind?
John Zogby: I obviously don't know the answers to any of these, but. Help me out Jer,
Jeremy Zogby: Huh. Alright,
John Zogby: please.
Jeremy Zogby: I, now, this isn't nitpicking, because, you'll see why, the correction is, our last poll, the 43% was approval.
John Zogby: Yeah.
Jeremy Zogby: Now, somebody could say, what's the different rule in that moment? The United States that poll was, March 18th and 19th. Up to that moment, the president had just engaged in airstrikes and.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, the American, most American voters, [00:07:00] the vast majority of American voters are not fans of, of the Iranian regime. So air force strikes and bombing nuclear capacity. You could see why the country would be divided. In other words, why it would be as high as 43% approval.
Jeremy Zogby: Considering we just had two, wars that lasted 20 years and the president campaigned on no more wars. but the significance in my correction is then we asked a question for boots on the ground, and we are in the threshold right now of boots on the ground. In fact, the, operation over the weekend in rescuing the pilot and today's.
Jeremy Zogby: Bombing, as I understand there's, there was bombing last night of Cog Island
Jeremy Zogby: this looks like this is the preparation for the boots on the ground. And when we asked for sup [00:08:00] support for boots on the ground, IEA longer term commitment of American troops, that was 27% support
Jeremy Zogby: was about. 63% opposition, almost, two and a half to one opposition to support.
Jeremy Zogby: And, we will be doing a poll, another national poll, hopefully within about a week. I suspect those numbers either remain the same or that gap or that increase in opposition, has gone up. Now that's just to set the stage, for, the numbers and the polling. regarding your questions, which are very deep questions, and I will just say that I don't have the answer to whether the president is mentally incapacitated, and some of the other questions, but, what [00:09:00] I will say is, first, let me state, it looks like the president was hoodwinked into this war.
Jeremy Zogby: That's what it looks like. it looks like to me, and we'll know more. Remember, we're still in the fog of war information is very difficult to get to, to figure out clearly what's going on, only a little over a month in, into a war. That's just how it is. but it, looks to me that a advisors made the president or sold the president on something.
Jeremy Zogby: That was more, attainable than it really was. And here's the problem. The whole basis of the United States' relationship in that region, particularly with GCC countries, is a relationship based on guaranteed security,
Jeremy Zogby: The [00:10:00] United States is supposed to guarantee military security to the Gulf countries.
Jeremy Zogby: And we get a special privilege of, they, as the old agreement goes, they buy treasuries and, they exclusively trade dollar in dollars in oil is priced in dollars and that gives America an exorbitant privilege. it's why we have been the strongest economy of the post-war era, but.
Jeremy Zogby: With Israel and the United States striking Iran. Obviously Iran didn't have the capacity to strike the United States, nor do I think they even want to. They would strike just the military bases in the GCC country and the energy infrastructure that props up the United States and gives it this exorbitant privilege and [00:11:00] advantage economically and financially.
Jeremy Zogby: It looks like that is gone. the United States hasn't provided security because the energy infrastructure in the GCC countries is now destroyed. And from what I understand, a lot of military bases in the region are uninhabitable US military bases. So it looks like the end of this relationship. And, what I'm getting at is regardless of, what went on behind the scenes in.
Jeremy Zogby: Trump's decision making of going forward with this, I'm just gonna keep it simple. The President has proven to be an agent of chaos, and by definition, if you are an agent of chaos, you can't be an agent of stability. What we're facing right now, I suspect I strongly believe we [00:12:00] still haven't felt the full consequences.
Jeremy Zogby: Of this, war. we haven't felt the full consequences of the disruption in the Strait of War Mo the disruption of world trade and how our entire modern civilization, heavily rests on the stability of that region. And like I said, Netanyahu and President Trump. Moving forward on this has created chaos, which I think will week by week show up more and more.
Jeremy Zogby: more people around the world will, feel it. Increasingly, a lot of people already are, especially in Europe and Asian countries, but that agent of chaos cannot be the agent of stability. So the question is who, when this is all said and done. Sweeps in or [00:13:00] swoops in to provide order and peace. I don't see how it can be the United States, and I do believe that's going to become increasingly visible, among people of the world and voters in the United States.
Jeremy Zogby: Meanwhile, we're moving into the midterms and we have already seen after a year of polling the president's approval ratings, a brevity of collapse. Of support or approval in the President's job. And I have some numbers here. I'm just gonna look at a few key groups. Very key groups. I'm not gonna make predictions of what's gonna happen in the midterms in November, but the numbers are very powerful and they will give you an idea of the predicament the president is in, and that if this war continues, the likelihood of further collapse of his numbers.
Jeremy Zogby: We started polling specifically likely voters in May of [00:14:00] 2025, and since then we've done nine rounds of national polling of likely voters. We begin, of course, with independent voters because they're almost somewhere between, there was a fluidity of independent voters, somewhere between a little over a quarter of the electorate, maybe as high as a third of the electorate.
Jeremy Zogby: Now I on election day in 2024. They were a third. but that's a significant chunk of the electorate. And if back then, in May of 2025, the president was already minus 14 in terms of net approval, he was underwater. 14 percentage points. Fast forward to March of 2026. That's now negative 21. That's just the independence.
Jeremy Zogby: let's look at Hispanic voters. Who I, would strongly make a case are a bellwether group because the Democrats, democratic, candidates, [00:15:00] by and large held the Hispanic vote for, quite a while. I'll, at least go back to Obama. Obama netted Hispanics, did very well with the Hispanic vote.
Jeremy Zogby: but then in 2024, Hispanics swung for Trump. When you get to May of 2025, the president was plus 12 percentage points. 53% of Hispanics were in approval of the president's job. Only 41 were in disapproval. Fast forward to today, he's minus 19. That's a collapse of over 30 percentage points among a key group.
Jeremy Zogby: That helped rally the president to victory? No question about it. I wanna look at, I could, really choose a lot. I'm actually, I'm gonna look at these two, [00:16:00] parents of young children and the union voters. In May of 2025, the president was plus 25 among parents. Today, that's down to plus seven.
Jeremy Zogby: would call that a collapse union voters who really got behind Trump, in 2024, and were hopeful, for his promise to bring back, factories and manufacturing capacity and a stronger economy. and, for other reasons too. And, just moving away from the 2024 Democratic platform.
Jeremy Zogby: He was plus 20 percentage points among union voters today he's minus four. a lot of this has come in waves. the first wave was somewhere between the reemergence of the Epstein files [00:17:00] and the first bombing campaign last year from May to June. of course, the tariffs, also what they call the tariff wars or the tariff tantrums that.
Jeremy Zogby: affected a lot of these groups in terms of, attrition, loss of, approval. But when you look at it on a chart, this most recent event has really done the president in. And so that paints a very dark picture for the president and the Republican party going into the midterms. and, Like I said, the notion that he who is the agent of chaos cannot be the agent of stability in order. And so I don't really see how the president gets out of this. Even if he declares victory and pulls away, there are still consequences that have to [00:18:00] play out, in terms of trade, in terms of, the global economy and a reshuffling of the global order.
Jeremy Zogby: Which I will close by saying I think we're looking at potentially the end of the unipolar world order led by the United States and we're entering into a multipolar world and, probably other players who, are going to step in and provide that order and stability.
John Zogby: Okay. That's a really good and thorough analysis. I'm, I've just got some bullet points. On my mind. the first is I don't see how Trump revives his numbers. Again, barring anything unforeseen, I, don't see him winning the battle of affordability. I think the voters are pretty clear on that, and I don't see him, [00:19:00] winning a war in Iran, or at least won. that matters, to the American people, or at least in, within a short period of time before Americans lose patients on the international stage. Middle East is complicated and every time you wanna sort it out in such a way that it makes sense. There are so many layers to it. we, started out with the Abraham Accords, which, allegedly, was bringing together the United States individual members, and then eventually all of the members of the GCC together with Israel in a powerful economic and military alliance to stem the tide of a, a revolutionary. movement led by Iran and its [00:20:00] surrogates in Lebanon and Gaza and Yemen and so on. But I see that, collapsing, even with a war in Iran. I don't think that the Gulf countries were counting on Iran attacking US military bases and throwing. countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia, in, in turmoil.
John Zogby: So I see that kind of, backfiring and are not meaning us, the United States doing ourselves any favor whatsoever. we arm. Countries like those in the GCC, simply as a bulwark against Iran, but also as a bulwark among their own people. and remember it was not that long ago that we had an Arab Spring and it took just one street. [00:21:00] Merchant, in Tunis, setting himself a fire to trigger, a bloodbath, in, in that region. And frankly, I don't think like it, same with Iran. I don't think that sentiment is dead. I think it appears hopeless right now. But, those freedom, lovers in those countries, but. And hopeless, especially since ultimately the Arab Spring didn't die. But I don't think the sentiment has died. And so we have, I think a, continued period of turbulence. you mentioned the, that you thought that the president was hoodwinked into this war, I can't excuse him for that. run for president if you are Hood Winkle.
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.
John Zogby: And, look, we have Vietnam, [00:22:00] we have Somalia, we have Libya, we have Iraq, we have Afghanistan. Now, the question mark is Iran, our track record is not very good and our ability to remake, failed states or, autocratic states. modern democratic ones is, has been an absolute disaster.
John Zogby: So color me, not so hopeful. today about, this war and as far as the, here we are, we're having a very important election in the middle a global revolution. if voters think their vote doesn't count, they ought to look. At recent history and how many elections have been won just by a handful of votes, presidential elections [00:23:00] by a relative, handful of votes, let alone, local and congressional votes as well. That's all I really have, to say.
Jeremy Zogby: that's all I had to say. I think we could just, call it a wrap and, hopefully by the next podcast, we will have a new poll. But regardless, a new poll is coming. I just can't say whether it's gonna be in seven days or 10 or 12 days, but it's coming. And, we'll have some newer questions in addition to, the usual, that, that show up in our, poll,
John Zogby: thanks. Bye-bye.
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