John Zogby: [00:00:00] the president at the peak of his power and influence earlier in the week, and by the end of the week, his hopes dashed. And in the middle of all this, Zogby Strategies conducts a poll.

Jeremy Zogby: The war in Iran is now approaching very-- getting very close to the one of the top three issues.

John Zogby: the longer that it takes, as we've pointed out from the beginning, the less the support for the war is,

Jeremy Zogby: a critical mass of voters that the economy and the war in Iran basically become a single issue.

John Zogby: It's Friday, Memorial Day weekend, and that's another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And as always, I'm here, I'm John, and you also see up there Jeremy, son and managing partner. How you doing?

Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I'm good. How are you [00:01:00] doing?

John Zogby: I'm doing well. So real polling in real time. This is real polling in real time. We got a look at this poll, late last night 'cause we did it, Thursday and Friday, so it is literally hot.

John Zogby: What a strange, turn of events this week. So on one hand, Monday and Tuesday, Republicans nationwide, Republicans in Congress got a clear message of the power of President Donald Trump, which really congealed, by Tuesday night with the defeat of Thomas Massie and the defeat a few days earlier of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, two very prominent, members of Congress, the Senate and the House, who had challenged and defied, President Trump and who were in turn defeated handily [00:02:00] And then the, there were a few other victories too, but the message was clear, don't d- Republicans do not defy President Trump or you're gonna pay the consequences.

John Zogby: on Monday, another example of the sheer power of Donald Trump, there had been a, $10 billion lawsuit against, the IRS and other agencies, on the revelation of the Trump family and business taxes. So the president, s- settles that lawsuit with his own Justice Department, his own handpicked people, who in turn awarded him, I'm putting it in quotes, $1,776 billion in change, and that would be for a weaponization fund for people who had been victims of unfair Democrats, AKA Biden, [00:03:00] administration, prosecutions.

John Zogby: And so the confluence of these two things make you wonder, can Republicans put a lid on President Trump? Will they have the guts to do it? And then by the end of the week, bam, Congress, including several prominent Republicans, decided, no, you're not gonna get w- $1,776 billion from us. There is no money for that.

John Zogby: icing on the cake, he had asked for $900 million for his, ballroom, which he said was all gonna be paid for with private money. He asked Congress to appropriate it. They said no. They said no to a billion dollars in additional, security for the White House, particularly for the ballroom area.

John Zogby: And so you have the president at the [00:04:00] peak of his power and influence within the Republican Party earlier in the week, and by the end of the week, his hopes dashed for a few of, let's just say, my comment, the more outrageous things that he has asked for in his administration. And in the middle of all this, Zogby Strategies conducts a poll.

John Zogby: And so why don't you pick it up from here and start wherever you wanna start with the poll and, breakdowns that we found?

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. we're going to start with approval. We'll look at the overall and a few things, We'll then tease the congressional generic, just the ballot question. the meatier information that we have the lead up to that question, whi- which, a handful of issues which party handles better, and I've seen some significant movement on that, but that'll be for a later [00:05:00] podcast.

Jeremy Zogby: We'll just do the congressional. of course, we're gonna look at how things stand with, regards to support for the war in Iran, more specifically boots on the ground. That's the key. so much, to date, how is he handling it? I think the thing to look for is whether Americans want a long-term commitment or not, and we've got some powerful numbers on that. as well as how are they experiencing this war in terms of feeling the impact? a number for everybody. And then we have to look at the top issues because although the top issues remain largely the same, there, there is one in particular that's creeping up. So I might get into some other things too, but, let's start off overall. approval, disapproval for the president. Despite everything [00:06:00] that you laid out, one could expect to see drop, but we are in a very hyper-polarized environment. For readers of my Substack via the Independent Polster, by Jeremy Zogby, wrote an article, about the polarization age that we're in and how it, it may or may not impact voter turnout.

Jeremy Zogby: But looking beyond that, where is this all headed? I highly recommend people to look at that. And so we're pretty much locked right now. the president's approval stands at forty-four, percent. It's about where it was last month, give or take a point. I think it was forty-three percent last month. but the disapproval went up to fifty-four. Last month, it was fifty-three, so he's still minus ten as he was last month. really much of a change there. [00:07:00] what I find particularly striking, I'll have to go back and, look at the tracking data on this, but off the top of my head, I think this gap is widening on the notion of how the president is handling the economy in general and then affordability.

Jeremy Zogby: And on the economy, he has a forty percent approval, fifty perc-- fifty-seven percent disapprove. that's a large gap. think that's maybe the largest, but I'm gonna have to go back and double-check that. Affordability gets even worse, thirty-seven percent approve, fifty-eight disapprove when you put that all in, into context, it's no surprise that today on the congressional generic ballot, last month, we had Dems ahead by four, forty-eight to forty-four. This month, forty-nine Dems, forty-two Republicans, a seven-point [00:08:00] That makes sense based on everything, that, you've laid out there's been some movement on that. to the war, because that's increasingly a big issue, and I have a lot to say about that, but, I'll save that for later. just getting right to the heart of the matter, do Americans support or oppose boots on the ground? Twenty-nine percent today say they would support it versus sixty-one percent it. the most staggering, which probably not a surprise because everybody's been feeling the effects of, the fuel hikes, the hikes and, the cost of gasoline at the pump.

Jeremy Zogby: Of yesterday I read that California was at six dollars. people are expecting another surge n- nationally in terms of the [00:09:00] average. But when we asked impact, level of the impact, forty-eight percent say that, they feel it significantly the cost of, of gas. thirty-three percent say somewhat, and only fourteen percent say they feel no impact. That-that's an increase from the last round. and then, getting right to the top issues, of course, it's, it-- going to remain the economy and inflation. Forty-eight percent that as the top issue that's gonna decide how they vote when it comes to casting their vote at the booth. That's basically unchanged. We still see citing health, the health of Americans, the state of healthcare. That's still the number two issue. [00:10:00] over the last several months, that basically has been number two issue. Immigration in at 19 is the third issue. The war in Iran is now approaching very-- getting very close to the one of the top three issues.

Jeremy Zogby: It's just behind immigration, and 18% cited it the top issue. Why that's significant is because not only do I see it climbing, in another Substack piece that I wrote about that was titled, the metric or the number both parties don't wanna hear about with regards to how Americans are increasingly becoming pessimistic about this war. that I made is, and this is a key word that you used earlier, is the convergence. We're now in the threshold, we may already be through the threshold, where a critical mass of [00:11:00] voters that the economy and the war in Iran basically become a single issue. That's happening right now, it looks like each passing day going to continue. so that's very problematic. before I-- I don't really wanna get into too many numbers, but that's just to put the data behind the, narrative that you opened up with

John Zogby: good job. one of the numbers you didn't share is the support for, or opposition to the president's efforts in Iran. And best of my recollection, it was 38% in favor or supportive of the president, 53, 54% opposed. You can correct me on that, but that's close enough,

Jeremy Zogby: 4154

John Zogby: 41/54. What is striking is that those were the [00:12:00] same support and opposition numbers on Vietnam, at the end of the war in Vietnam when the country was already, divided.

John Zogby: These are the numbers for war at the beginning of the war. Now, you talked about the convergence of the war in Iran and the economy affordability issue. that's very, much gonna be on the public mind because you would ha- now have what appears to be the Ayatollah himself, the son of the former Ayatollah, saying not only will they not compromise on where, the uranium, refined uranium, will, be placed.

John Zogby: They want it in Iran, the United States and Israel do not. But, Iran looks to be, negotiating a deal [00:13:00] with its fellow Straits, neighbor, Oman, in terms of making a permanent toll on every com- commercial ship, something to the tune of a, a $250,000 per ship, as a toll tax for the privilege of getting through, and they want it to be permanent.

John Zogby: a- as a revenue raiser, but also as a signal to the world that you have made this an even more important trade route than it already was. Now you're gonna have to pay for it. And so that suggests to me, number one, h- how does this war end? number two, how do we stop the costs, the bleeding?

John Zogby: And number three, just, the longer that it takes, as we've pointed out from the beginning, the less the support for the [00:14:00] war is, and at what point does that reach the actual critical mass where voters say, "We gotta throw the bums out"?

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah, and just to, take that and to go deeper, the economy is almost always... ex-ex-except for when times are good, that works for whoever the, incumbent party is. when the economy is not doing so good, and really since the Great Recession, a lot of Americans more or less have been feeling that, but, it's, it's-- it and they're perceiving it.

Jeremy Zogby: But economy not something that... every generation that, that we have living today has had to adjust one way or another to, to price rises, to a [00:15:00] bad job market, and that's not to say that Americans are gonna shrug it off. It's just that every generation has experienced it. The older have experienced it more. the younger, it's new. But they can adjust to that. it's still gonna be a, major driving issue. But the point that I'm building up to that I think Americans aren't accustomed to is the psychological effects of how Americans perceive Am- this country on the world stage. I, was born in '83, I grew up with, like everybody else, the notion of, USA's number one, USA's the greatest country on Earth, God bless America.

Jeremy Zogby: I'm hearing that a lot less these days, and there are people, analysts, politicos who, have suggested over the years that foreign [00:16:00] policy doesn't really play a role in the election. I think there's some merit to that, but when we get down to a psychological effect of Americans for the first time feeling like they're losing their credibility on the world stage, I would argue Americans are not used to adjusting that.

Jeremy Zogby: They are used to adjusting to a tight economy, but not that psychological effect. And this key question here asked what-- To date, since we've been in this-- involved in this war eighty days now, the question is, the world stage, is America, do you believe, viewed more credibly or less credibly?" If 41% say more credible versus 48% who say less credible, that's almost half of Americans. And so that's what I'm getting at, is that this is new territory

John Zogby: Yeah. [00:17:00] I think I'd be remiss if I didn't give equal time, to the Democrats. And this was a, an important week for the Democrats. and, the viewers and listeners may be wondering why our number for, approval for President Trump is higher than the other pollsters. And that's because we have our sample represented by roughly equal percentage of Democrats and Republicans because that's where we find the American people to be.

John Zogby: remember, there are people who are totally repulsed by the Republican Party but cannot support the Democrats. and so that's why we're-- we still have the parties in parity and President, Trump's numbers may be a little higher than other polls that we believe oversample the number of Democrats.

John Zogby: [00:18:00] However, this week was a powerful example of why the Democrats have a problem, communicating with the public. They had made a lot of noise a few months after the 2024 loss about conducting an autopsy on the 2024 campaign about what happened. And then what happened from there is there was an autopsy being studied.

John Zogby: Someone was appointed to do the study, no details about it. And then finally the word got out by the chairman of the Democratic Party himself, Ken Martin, that they weren't going to release the autopsy, which created, a lot of division within the party, a lot of conspiracy theories as well. So finally, bowing to pressure The, Chairman Martin released a highly redacted version of the [00:19:00] autopsy, which was still unfinished, which, he argued with in the margins with a red pen, where he said numerous times, "I don't support this.

John Zogby: Nobody supports this." And in any event, for those of us who read at least a portion of the actual autopsy itself, it didn't say anything anyway, and it didn't grapple with some of the real issues, facing the Democratic Party. Not-- elitism is one, wokeism is another. The, really horrible stance on Gaza of continuing the Biden policy of being the co-butchers of Palestinians in Gaza.

John Zogby: And so with that said, if you wonder why the race, even though Democrats are ahead today, but why this race still can remain competitive, this is one good reason that, folks are not [00:20:00] happy with either party

Jeremy Zogby: And, one of the other things that they completely ignored, which was a big deal in the summer after Biden, it became clear Biden had to step out, is there was no process.

Jeremy Zogby: Democratic Party was not very democratic, and we wonder why in 2024 their turnout collapsed

John Zogby: Yeah We'll leave it at that. But we've got more numbers to release at our next podcast. And so we'll schedule it, let you know, and we'll see you then

Jeremy Zogby: Have a great Memorial Day weekend

John Zogby: Yep

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