John Zogby: [00:00:00] fact of the matter is that despite military dominance many ways, this has been a total failure. it's also been a humiliation, certainly for the United States.
Jeremy Zogby: control of the Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear bomb. It has the effect much slower, but it, I... you get my point here, right?
John Zogby: the ultimate fighting challenge at the White House, $60 million, all that was missing was the president's toga,
Jeremy Zogby: It's been abundantly clear to me that Circus Maximus has, has, been in effect for maybe about a decade, and continuously.
John Zogby: It's Tuesday, June 16th, and welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with John Zogby and with my son, as we do all the [00:01:00] time, Jeremy Zogby, managing partner of John Zogby Strategies.
How you doing, Jer?
Jeremy Zogby: I'm doing pretty well. I'm, just wondering of all the things that we can possibly talk about, where do we begin?
John Zogby: Okay. we begin with a misnomer. title of our episodes are Real Polling in Real Time, and we don't have real polling in real time this week. But the next time you see us, we will. but there's two topics I think that dominate the news that we really need to address. The first is the spectacle of the past weekend, the president's 80th birthday, the Ultimate Fighting Challenge, $60 million spent on an extravaganza at the White House, no less. then of course, is there an Iran deal? Is there not an Iran deal? If there is an Iran deal, a lot of speculation as to, how much of a deal it really is for either side. Let me just start briefly with a commentary about the Ultimate [00:02:00] Fighting Challenge. personally, not my thing, mixed martial arts.
I don't mind violence in sports. I had my fill of it, during the NBA finals, that there was some dirty stuff going on between the Knicks and the Spurs. although things, I have to say, ended, correctly in five games the Knicks. and I also want to remind everyone that, we are multiple Americas. We are diverse and divergent, people. that's not only race or color or social class or region age demographic or whatever. There are different interests and different ways of expressing values. And so What's troubling to me is [00:03:00] that, the ultimate fighting challenge at the White House, $60 million, all that was missing was the president's toga, la Nero or Caligula or, Caesar Augustus whatever. but the excesses troubling the, demeaning of former First Lady Michelle Obama in purely racist and disrespectful terms was over the top. The fact that the White House has not issued a statement con- condemning fighter who, who, made that awful and ugly statement about Michelle Obama, all of that sort of thing is very troubling. with that aside, and we do need to put it [00:04:00] aside, I need to warn you that I, have very similar reactions to Bruce, Springsteen, or to Jimmy Kimmel when entertainment and sports enters the realm of politics and drives up the level of disrespect into the stratosphere. I like Bruce Springsteen.
He is a hero of mine in, in many ways as a poet of our age, but I don't need a Bruce Springsteen, demeaning the President of the United States or speaking to one America and ignoring another America. I don't need a late night comet going tit for tat back and forth with the President of the United States. If the president wants to play on that playing field, good, and let him have it unto himself. But to keep this banter going back and [00:05:00] forth me no pleasure. I don't see how it really gives anybody any pleasure. has gotta be a hero above this level of non-discourse and terrible rhetoric.
And, I just want to remind people that, for the first time, I think many liberals, progressives, people with whom I may agree most of the time, not, help themselves or help the nation they demean people who enjoy martial arts or, enjoy this kind of extravaganza, even though it's not my cup of tea. But by the same token, I warn the people who did support the events, the birthday party and so on of our nation and, and Donald Trump, and [00:06:00] enjoyed even the excesses of it, they need to be on alert too. You're not really helping this nation heal. Do you wanna comment on that first and then we'll get into Iran?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I mean There's so much I can say, and at the same time, my immediate thought is what do I actually say? What can I say? you mentioned, or referenced Circus Maximus. I'm gonna be honest with you. it's been abundantly clear to me that Circus Maximus has, has, been in effect for maybe about a decade, and continuously.
I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna just, say that it's only when one party is, in control of government, and then when the other one comes in. there there is a serious problem in this country with [00:07:00] boundaries. As you've alluded to, whether it's entertainment, the need for, for singers, for artists, and for all kinds of, various artists of whatever art form to to have a political stance, to have to say something political.
You have to ask yourself, who is out there that is actually creating art for the sake of art purely for art? And to me, that is a herald of the times, that we live in, which is hyperpolarization. politics is not the highest form of human thought, especially when it has to be overtly ideological.
it's one thing to say, "All right, let's, let's debate and discuss the systems of checks and balances." [00:08:00] hey, like what this country used to do, it's probably been a long time. in that sense, politics is a beautiful thing. It is a great thing. But what we're witnessing today and what we have been wis- witnessing, over the last decade is a blurring of many lines and little boundaries, and I think the most obvious one is the national drama, and that the national drama is, front and center stage, and it, i- it has trickled down to the community level to the point where neighbors are distrustful of neighbors.
Not all the time, but oftentimes. And I'm gonna make this abundantly clear that I think that this is the fault, on both sides, and of course social media is something that, exacerbates [00:09:00] it. But, I was doing radio today, and th- this is where I'm gonna wrap it up, and th- this is gonna highlight my point about the i- the overt focus of ideology and what's going on with the national drama.
And here I was on radio today, local radio station, guest hosting, and a mayor from, a, city nearby came on to talk about water, and that over the last year there have been fire hydrants that bursted and there are valves underneath the ground that have bursted. And this is a city locally, n- not far from here, that is abundant with water, so much that it can actually provide water to other nearby small cities who have water problems with lead and arsenic from the old, ages of industry.
And yet this city with abundance of water is now facing a crisis, and we're talking about the most [00:10:00] basic element of human life, right? Something that we take for granted. And you are going to see going forward within the next five to 10 years, even in regions where there is supposed to be a lot of water, the infrastructure is crumbling.
And I think that now this is a good segue to talk about Iran and what's going on because the empire has been more focused on sending money overseas to fight wars while we're going to have very basic issues over the next decade that I'm afraid are gonna become, very problematic
John Zogby: Good point. Iran. the, the book on this war is that the president went in with no plan and no strategy. The fact of the matter is he went in with a plan and a strategy and that was to [00:11:00] topple the regime and to, change the region of the Middle East and make it more along the lines of the Netanyahu vision, for the region of an ascending Israel of, Arab, friends and satellites and of, kind of, co-prosperity sphere with the United States and I- and Israel in a dominant position. fact you're-- fact of the matter is that despite military dominance many ways, this has been a total failure. it's also been a humiliation, certainly for the United States. I'm not sure that folks in Israel get that they've experienced their Dien Bien Phu, in [00:12:00] both Gaza and, in the war with Iran and s- its satellites, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. the trouble is there is a deal, about a page and a half of a memorandum of understanding. It is of necessity vague 'cause it essentially kicks the can down the road where, to allow, a ceasefire so that meatier negotiations can then continue 60 days from now. But what we think we know so far is that the mullahs are still in power They have learned, or exercised the authority to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, whereas we know one-fifth the oil trade, transpires on a regular [00:13:00] basis. do know that, the, war continues not only in Gaza, but it continues in Lebanon and it has gone well beyond the green line, the Litani River of southern Lebanon, which Israel had occupied before and then left. Now, there are cities and towns north, of, the, the green line that have been destroyed. As we speak, Beirut is be- being bombed, the southern part of Beirut. There is appears to be no will on the part of Israel to stop this attack in Lebanon, and this of course can serve to prolong the hostilities, the war between the United States and Israel on one side, Iran on the other side. So I don't know what we're [00:14:00] going to get. I do know, I sense that the President of the United States was more desperate for a deal than the Iranian leadership, who were desperate for a deal. But the president needs to extricate the United States from this situation, and the ideal time to do it is this week at the G7 conference, so we can take advantage of the global focus, am- among the superpowers. It does not appear like any of those objectives were achieved whatsoever. Another wasted war, and, another mark against the United States, and this time with its adjunct Israel, another mark against them
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. Yeah, and it's... Look, let's just get to the fundamentals here. I may have mentioned this the last podcast, but it's important to bring up [00:15:00] again that a high-level person, the senior VP of ExxonMobil, late May, early June, I can't remember, but somewhere around that point, said that we're entering a very serious time that we've gone this long without the flow of energy coming out of the Strait.
And, basically you get to about late June and the crisis isn't resolved, we're gonna have major issues. I don't know that anybody can really calculate what that looks like, but I can confidently say I, I don't think we just completely bypass and go back to normal. these are massive ships that have been locked there, right?
And that is all kinds of problems without energy moving, with oil staying i- within the infrastructure. That stuff was built so that it could move. Kinda like the human [00:16:00] body, the blood needs to move, right? And if the blood stops moving, it, there's some major issues, and it's not just like all of a sudden everything goes back to normal.
but this war was based on the premise that, and this is where it gets really troubling for me, was based on the premise that, according to the president and his cabinet, or members of his cabinet, that Iran had a, has a, is going to have a nuclear bomb. But at the same time, if I'm not mistaken, 17 intelligence agencies just prior to the strike that began on February 28th were in concert, in unison saying that they weren't on any path.
they weren't nuclear capable yet and it wasn't feasible. That's my strong understanding. Correct me if I'm wrong. Am I wrong about that?
John Zogby: no, that's a,
Jeremy Zogby: So-
John Zogby: what I [00:17:00] understand from what I read,
then you have the counter information
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. A- and
John Zogby: comes up and who to believe
Jeremy Zogby: so, then now we have a real big problem that there's the executive branch versus 17 intelligence agencies. And, look, if, they're, in disagreement, we've got bigger problems here. And so yeah, it gets to the point, who do you believe? But listen, it's beyond that because I think if you really exercise basic, r- reasoning, y- after what we just witnessed, and look, I could have told you this.
I've, been telling you this, not you, Dad, but for anybody who's in doubt of what I'm saying, that, Iran doesn't need a nuclear bomb. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear bomb. It has the effect much slower, but it, I... you get my point here, right? And they've also demonstrated [00:18:00] with hypersonic missiles and $18,000 drones that they can inflict harm.
And, the reality is, I'm just gonna say this, and, some people might find this controversial, but think about it. I don't even think Iran has really demonstrated w- what they fully can do, okay? because they've been preparing for this for 40 years. you think they shot all their munitions, w- in this, in this battle?
I, don't think so. And it's, they've proven that, that they, can withstand, this damage. And in closing, it looks like the narrative target has been constantly moving and, w- we have this deal that exists now, can be gone tonight or tomorrow, and the deal is supposedly that while they're gonna, they'll get 300 billion in [00:19:00] frozen assets, but they're not going to get a nuclear weapon.
do you really believe for one second that, Iran is gonna give up on its uranium capacity, which I fully believe has nothing to do with a nuclear bomb, but has to do with diversifying and ensuring that they can give enough power to their nation? Because for... Look, Eur- Europe is facing this issue too.
Germany and France will go back to nuclear power. They will go back to nuclear power because they will have to, because look at all that's happened over the last five years. So I- I'd say that- that's a lot to chew on right there.
John Zogby: So just final brief word from me I-- We went through this with Saddam, and I remember telling the of [00:20:00] the evening that the US Senate voted to go to war, declare war against Saddam Hussein. I remember telling the Senate Democrats in a briefing, "So he has a nuclear weapon. What's he going to do with it?" what is Iran i-if it has a nuclear weapon, what's it gonna do with it? Use it and then destroy itself in the process? The final thing is, what's so troubling this week is how the price of oil and the stock market can be manipulated on a whim the price of a barrel of oil has gone down 30 plus dollars just on the rumor that there's a deal, which Iran has not totally [00:21:00] confirmed yet. And the stock market, which had been losing about, a thousand points in the Dow Jones, goes back up into record territory all on the basis of a press release of some sort. That's just-- That doesn't make me sleep well at night.
we'll have some polling the next time you see us. Take care.
Jeremy Zogby: All right. Take care