Jeremy Zogby: ​[00:00:00] I got it. Loading. Waiting for cloud That's it

Jeremy Zogby: there we go. I see the red square, so we're good, right?

John Zogby: maybe it's dangerous turf for someone to say, "I'm a moderate establishment Republican."

Jeremy Zogby: I think what we will see is a move more towards a progressive pla- platform nationally so that fire can fight fire, and that makes an, a lot of sense.

John Zogby: The situation is such, I think, turmoil and turbulence reign supreme,

John Zogby: It's Friday, and that [00:01:00] means that, this is a regular edition of the Zogby Report, real polling in real time. And today the real polling is actually going to be about, real voters who have voted this past week, and, what the implications are for this year, for 2026 in November. I wanna begin by establishing a context. Right now, as we speak, I-- the situation is such, I think, turmoil and turbulence reign supreme, as does confusion. I don't recall in my lifetime so many hotspots, at fever pitch all at the same time. His- historically, that could very well be similar maybe to 1939, 1940, phony war, ultimately led, of course, to World War II. But real quick, [00:02:00] earthquakes in Venezuela, and now our friends in Venezuela are saying, "Where's the United States? You said that you were our friend, you were going to help us." Just overnight, you had a major, drone attack by Ukraine turning the tables on Russia, try to get-- asserting its position-- its position in the war against Russia. And Vladimir Putin responding by saying, "NATO, Europe, look out. There could be the possibility of retaliation." the Middle East, anyone who can explain what's going on right now in the context of ceasefire and memorandum of understanding can get an award. Because as it looks to me, Strait of Hormuz is officially closed. There are some boats that were allowed to get through, but I think that's been shut down. was supposed [00:03:00] to, its military action in Lebanon and has refused, do There again is turmoil and confusion. And of course, there's more. So what does this all mean? right now, President Trump, who prefers to be talking about other things like the reflecting pool, and immigration, just-- He just won a, a major Supreme Court decision six to three that enables the United States now to turn away asylum seekers from Syria and Haiti before they even come to our border, come to our shores. But the president's numbers average low. It's at forty percent. It was even thirty-nine point eight percent, but some polls have him at thirty and thirty-four. Others [00:04:00] have him more Republican-leaning polls at forty-three and forty-four. But things have happened. On one hand, as we look at key Senate races, Democrats need six to win. In the six where they have the best chance, they are leading in five of those six. Not by much, but they're leading by five. That does mean, at this point in time, that maybe they do have a shot taking over the Senate. In the House, there were two things that was-- were solidified, this past Tuesday in, New York City, upstate New York, Utah, Maryland, and South Carolina. One is that Donald Trump essentially owns the GOP lock, stock, and barrel. When he came in and endorsed [00:05:00] candidates, candidates won and are winning. the other hand, maybe it's dangerous turf for someone to say, "I'm a moderate establishment Republican." it is looking like progressives are winning, and not just in New York City, but winning in other places as well. I think all of this adds to the hyperpolarization because more and more left-wing Democrats, more and more MAGA Republicans are running for office. and that adds, I think, to even more confusion and fears of instability moving into November. How'd I do?

Jeremy Zogby: Wow. I'm looking at the timer here, and in about four to five minutes you covered about six topics that each could be individual podcasts. [00:06:00] So I have to say you did an excellent job. I'm gonna do my best to work backwards because that was a lot. as far as, yeah, MAGA owning the Republican Party, that, that is clear.

Jeremy Zogby: If it should be abundantly clear at this point, right? I, Over the last year, we've seen the tendency of pundits to almost hopefully project that somebody f- from within the party would be able to overcome MAGA. And, on the social media side, that is happening, right? You've got Tucker Carlson and crew, who have come out against the president, chiefly, I think, because of foreign policy, more specifically the relationship with Israel, and that butting heads with the notion of America [00:07:00] first.

Jeremy Zogby: But in terms of elections, that is not panning out. It is, not going to pan out.

Jeremy Zogby: E- even, in, the district next door to us, the Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullin is a perfect example of, once again, how MAGA has asserted its control over the party. Now, on the other side, regarding, the Democrats and, the rise of, the socialists, the continuous rise, I do have to say by and large, where, I think I would m- disagree with you is, it remains by and large an urbanist phenomenon.

Jeremy Zogby: that is, the, socialist, sentiment and where it is going to be successful. But to your point, [00:08:00] and hyperpolarization, I don't think the Democratic Party nationally speaking is going to fight the fire of MAGA with a more moderate brand. I think what we will see is a move more towards a progressive pla- platform nationally so that fire can fight fire, and that makes an, a lot of sense.

Jeremy Zogby: that's just on the domestic side and the internal workings of the parties. Now you brought into an, the larger equation the global hotspots. And I will just react to all three. Number one, with Venezuela The, the week, the, earthquakes happened, what? Within the last 48 hours. So it remains to be seen what the president is going to do.

Jeremy Zogby: I don't know. So that to me is a question [00:09:00] mark. I don't know that we're in a definitive position to say yet whether he's going to abandon the aid, whether he's not going to, jump on that opportunity to build up infrastructure because, Venezuela was a key part for the president's strategy in, all of this, with regards to oil and energy, but I don't know.

Jeremy Zogby: So that one, we, remain on hold. As far as Ukraine and the Russian war, Putin has slowly, been hinting at the notion that more NATO support for Ukraine against Russia inevitably will result in Russia having to retaliate against a NATO member. That should not come as a surprise to anybody and look, I've talked about this many times on this podcast, and I want people to really make an effort to remember this [00:10:00] fact.

Jeremy Zogby: I lived in the Czech Republic during 2008, and that was when all of this started, when it really started heating up the United States, moving away from any notion of a relationship with the nation of Russia and really hitting home, on those former Warsaw Pact nations in recruiting them into the European Union and into NATO.

Jeremy Zogby: And there was a famous summit, and everybody really, needs to look this up and read about it. The Bucharest Summit, in Bucharest, Romania in 2008 was all about really Ukraine. on day one, the United States and allies made the case for why the nation of Ukraine should enter the EU and by way of, entering the EU, get into NATO.

Jeremy Zogby: Putin showed up on day two, and he said, "So many of the former Warsaw Pact nations have already [00:11:00] been brought into NATO." Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, and there were more even back then in tw- 2008, but he said clearly, "Ukraine is where I will draw the line. You will not take Ukraine."

Jeremy Zogby: That was 2008, folks. That was a long time ago. So this is a long time coming and, I would, make a strong case, he made that clear in 2008. I don't wanna... I don't-- I wouldn't wanna, push him any further, into the corner. I know there's a lot of high emotions, especially for Europeans on this issue, but, the larger ramifications for what could easily turn into a, war that would go beyond control, I don't think is necessarily worth it.

Jeremy Zogby: and then Iran, the only thing that I have to say about that, and this plays into 2026, and [00:12:00] w- how voters, may break one way, for Democrats or maybe Republicans hold strong, we don't know yet. It's way too early. But the one thing that is pretty surprising is given all of this, as you say, turbulence and confusion, one would expect the markets to be reacting a lot more.

Jeremy Zogby: The only thing that I can come up with in understanding is how the price of oil has maintained at, its current level, which is somewhere in the $70 a barrel, not too far from before the war, is that I have a sus- a suspicion, a lot of shipments are going under the radar. And how that's happening, I don't know.

Jeremy Zogby: But how else oil can maintain its current price other than some sophisticated black [00:13:00] operations of moving oil and in between a, narrative war, clearly a narrative war between Iran and the United States, that makes sense in the moment

John Zogby: we're covering a lot of ground, and I'm gonna add to the ground because, there's an old rule don't change captains, in the middle of a crisis. And, here we have Keir Starmer, in the UK announcing that he will step down, I, as the prime minister and, make a s- try to make a smooth transition to successor. and the reason I'm mentioning it is that, again, there is this shadow, of Jeffrey Epstein, and it was, relationship the then am- ambassador of the UK to the United States, that, [00:14:00] that brought this all up and had a implication for Starmer and for his government in the UK. but with that said, we're going to have what looks to be like a very competitive election with, and I'm going to say this right now, really an unknown result going into November. I think Democrats are riding high right now. There is evidence that, they're leading. not by much, but the Senate races leading in Ohio, which, was always gonna be questionable, leading in Iowa, which has been, red, leading in North Carolina, because they have a good candidate, even, tied or within a point in Texas. this is all [00:15:00] very, competitive in a period, again, where, turmoil and confusion, reign supreme. That's

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: to say

Jeremy Zogby: And, the only thing that I would add to that, and nobody has the answer to this because the midterm election season has just started to heat up.

Jeremy Zogby: The, primaries are by and large over, and now the parties are gonna face off in all of these key races at all levels. And the one question that's important to us, most important to us, and, also important to those who are following this very closely for a variety of reasons is, voter turnout

Jeremy Zogby: compared to last cycle going up, going down, or remaining the same?

Jeremy Zogby: And I don't have a read on that yet. And I'm gonna be honest, I don't think anybody has a read on that yet. But w- that's what we're most, [00:16:00] interested in as pollsters and for those who are politics lovers and consumers of information. But what we talked about in terms of the, vast amount of issues with vast implications for people's lives, what happens between now and November, and I do suspect something big is going to happen given so much is going on, may give us a clue as to whether that turnout will be suppressed or, jolted

John Zogby: Okay, I'll leave it at that. I have a hunch about turnout, but I'm gonna save it. It's too early. have a good week

Jeremy Zogby: Will you be able to tell me off, off the air?

John Zogby: I will.

Jeremy Zogby: Okay.

John Zogby: And everybody else next week

Jeremy Zogby: Sounds good

John Zogby: All right. Take care

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