John Zogby: [00:00:00] There's trouble in GOP land, make no mistake about it.

John Zogby: boy is there trouble in Democrat land.

Jeremy Zogby: we've been talking about this going back to 2025, that the party could split.

John Zogby: Should they not be building bridges the strong base of Democratic socialists who incidentally are winning primaries?

John Zogby: It's a very special Sunday, and so welcome to Real Polling in Real Time with, and Jeremy Zogby. Hi, Jer. How are you?

Jeremy Zogby: I'm good. How about you, Dad?

John Zogby: I'm doing okay, and it's a very special Sunday because this marks 100 days before the midterms, and it allows us to try to look ahead a little bit, and let's just cut right to the chase and do that. By most [00:01:00] objective markers, not only polling, but, local races issues and the president's approval rating the economy and so on, should be a big Democratic year, and there are elements pointing to that. The president's approval rating is 40%. His approval on handling the war in Iran, 29%. His handling of the economy and, affordability right down there at 30 and 31%. no end in sight for this war and an expansion, regionally and in terms of new players entering. gotten to the point where not only are the Strait of Hormuz, closed, but the Red Sea is, going to be blockaded by the [00:02:00] Houthis, or rebels in Yemen who are affiliated with Iran.

John Zogby: It's very hard to see good going on if, this election in November in any way is a referendum, on Donald Trump. But traditionally, all things being equal, those are our qualifiers, this would be a big first off-year election for, the opponent of the president. However, things aren't quite that easy. There's trouble in GOP land, make no mistake about it. He's bleeding some MAGA support. This is a man who pledged no foreign alliances, no foreign entanglements, no foreign wars, and we are entangled, dragged by an alliance and, in the midst of multiple, I guess you could say, regionally, foreign [00:03:00] wars. is contra to what, many, MAGA voters wanted, and you're hearing from them. some are already jaded, of course, by affordability. Some are already jaded by, y- their status in a workplace that is like we've never seen before. am I gonna lose my job at the end of the day or, at the end of the week because of artificial intelligence?

John Zogby: There's a lot of anxiety out there. and then to cap it all off, a new Emerson poll, very respectable, college poll, in the congressional generic Democrats leading 53% to 42%. That's an imbalanced number that [00:04:00] either way, Democrat or Republican, that we haven't seen in a long time. And that should be, it is in fact, good news for the Democrats. But boy, and I'll end it, in a couple of minutes on this, boy is there trouble in Democrat land. first and foremost, the party is broke and it's in debt. That's as opposed to Mr. Trump, who's got, a $400 million PAC that he shares with, a local and, state candidates, another 130 million Republican, Committee and, deep pockets. in addition to that, Democrats are deadlocked. We know the Republicans are split, th- they're deadlocked now between the establishment, led by, Schumer [00:05:00] and, the leaders of the Democratic leaders of the House Senate, the establishment of the party, and the Democratic socialists. And I was just reminded this week how dangerous that is. There are two things that reminded me. is that establishment figures like James Carville and, others been calling the Democratic socialists communists. that, is setting the table, in fact, for, the Republicans to go whole hog bashing socialists as, communists. other thing I was reminded of, you folks may or may not recall, in 1988, Dukakis was, ultimately the nominee, but he was running in the primaries, against Jesse Jackson [00:06:00] and Al Gore, young senator at the time. And during the primaries, it was Al Gore who found, program in the state of Massachusetts started by Dukakis' predecessor that was a weekend furlough program for prisoners, including violent felons. in this program, the time Dukakis became governor, he saw no reason to end the program, one of those violent felons, a felon by the name of Willie Horton maybe that's familiar to you, his weekend furlough, raped and murdered a woman. And that became a rallying cry Dukakis Democrats soft on crime. And in that sense, that became one of the top three issues the general campaign [00:07:00] used against Dukakis, but it had started with Al Gore, his fellow Democrat. And that's what I'm wondering about now. Are Democrats protesting too much? Should they not be building bridges the strong base of Democratic socialists who incidentally are winning primaries? should they not be embracing, should they not be embracing each other, both sides in, order to win? And if there is that split, it's almost a 50/50 split, and it's almost to a great degree, a generational split of millennials Gen Z not really bothered by the term socialism versus those in their 50s, 60s, and 70s who, are. But if the Democrats don't get their act [00:08:00] together, this is not a slam dunk. In fact, it can be even worse for them. How'd I do?

Jeremy Zogby: I thought that was a brilliant summary and, there's a few things that I wanna hit on

Jeremy Zogby: because, You look at the polls, right? And so we'll zero in on the generic congressional vote. And the average, according to RealClearPolitics, has the Democrats ahead plus 5.4 percentage points. As you mentioned, Emerson came out about a week ago with a-- I think you were talking about another poll, but with the congressional vote, they have them plus

Jeremy Zogby: 11.

Jeremy Zogby: That's the widest margin in the last month. The closest would be Rasmussen and [00:09:00] Harris, who came out with polls back-to-back almost two weeks ago with the Democrats behind-- I'm sorry, ahead by two. And then you have everything in between. But let's just run with the average plus five. But as you mentioned, to be specific about the Democrats are broke, the campaign, the national campaign or the national party, I should say, last I read, had 13 million in the bank, but were 16 million in debt.

Jeremy Zogby: So yeah, that's broke. There is the momentum, right? They are picking up elections, but there's this real problem. And we've been talking about this going back to 2025, that the party could split.

Jeremy Zogby: as you mentioned, it's not even-- it is Gen Z and millennial and to an extent [00:10:00] millennial, because there are older millennials who are, I would say, much different than the younger millennials.

Jeremy Zogby: But I would say that to layer onto that, it's also urban. It's an urban phenomenon. So what I'm getting at here is that this perceived lead, which is in the moment, and I think you are getting at, has real vulnerabilities. But at the same time, MAGA, who promised a better economy and who promised actually using the term end the forever wars, which was a moniker that was picked up from the Kennedy campaign.

Jeremy Zogby: The Kennedy campaign were using that specific terminology, end the foreign wars, end the forever wars. And it was fascinating to see Trump by late August going into the 2024 election, early September, churning that. [00:11:00] And boy, have they turned on that completely. And as you and I have been talking about over the weekend, not only is it the prospect of Iran Not only is, that now just potentially or already turning into a wider regional war, you have both straits that are dangerously, hotspots which could roil the global markets.

Jeremy Zogby: You're starting to hear more and more analysts admit the potential of energy shocks, which I was not shy to mention during the, start of this war, going back to late February, early March, to, look out for energy shocks. it only made sense that you talk about two of some of the most important choke points in the world.

Jeremy Zogby: At some point, markets are gonna price that in. And so how do, the Dem- how do the Republicans, how do MAGA even [00:12:00] work this into, their favor? it's very challenging. And I thought a couple weeks ago when they pivoted to their midterm strategy to really drill the point of, the Democrats are communists, the Democrats are socialists, which, the socialist part of it, and I suppose the communist party, party part of it has some truth to it with M- Mamdani and some other like-minded figures.

Jeremy Zogby: But I, thought that was really weak messaging. I didn't think that was going to really have any compelling case to pull the cross vote, the independent vote. But, in light of what you said about the classic case of Willie Horton, and we know that the Republican Party are absolutely brilliant when it comes to zeroing in on, on, on one, one big story or one situation or a couple stories [00:13:00] in, a city here and a, a city there, and really drilling it, because don't forget that crime and safety is the number four top issue.

Jeremy Zogby: That, that is a top issue. and look, that, that's the case in big cities, small cities, the suburbs, even small towns and villages, a lot of people don't feel safe across the country. So long story short I look at this congressional generic vote of today plus five Democrat, but as, as you considered the weaknesses of the party a- and as we consider the weaknesses of, the Republicans, we know that when it comes down to the wire, and, things are gonna change in October.

Jeremy Zogby: That's when the rubber's gonna meet the road. That's when voters are really gonna be paying attention, and that's when the big stories, we always have to talk about the October surprises, start hitting, [00:14:00] and that's when voters start to-- a critical mass of voters, particularly independent and undecided voters, start to reconsider.

Jeremy Zogby: And the long story short is we have no idea what's going to happen.

John Zogby: We

Jeremy Zogby: any-- a- and, in a world of turbulence, we don't know. but I, do not wanna undermine the, the many pain points that the incumbent party has just by vir- virtue of being an incumbent party with a shaky economy, a stock market in, bizarro world, and the prospect of, widening regional wars.

Jeremy Zogby: And I say wars because don't forget about Ukraine and don't forget about Taiwan. And how the president is gonna work that and MAGA are gonna work that into their favor [00:15:00] is going to be really interesting

John Zogby: I like James Carville on a personal level, but I've always felt that he was wrong when he said, "It's the economy, stupid." the economy obviously is, is, very important, but is always part of a, a bigger picture, as you've been pointing out in your Substack articles. There's always an umbrella issue that dominates a campaign. And as we look ahead, the economy affordability is a real source of anxiety. war, a real source of anxiety. However, comfort, security has become a real source of anxiety. And if Democrats are allowed to be painted into a corner dangerous [00:16:00] socialists overthrowing the apple cart, this could be, a, a real difficulty.

John Zogby: And look, I think the most important figure in this election coming up is, Zoran Mamdani. he's good on his feet. He's already fulfilled a few of his campaign promises. He's getting bashed from all corners, and if he's still standing on his feet by September and October, that will have done a lot to reduce the anxiety about him and about, Democratic socialists.

John Zogby: So that's what I'm looking ahead to

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: fall.

Jeremy Zogby: yeah, thanks for bringing up the article. and if folks wanna read it, they should go to The Independent Polster's, Substack, And it's called voter sentiment has shifted in a major way. Security will be front [00:17:00] and center on voters' minds heading into the midterms. As you mentioned, Carville and other campaign strategists have looked at the unique economic landscape within a given election, and, they've read what the unique aspects of, that economic, landscape, usually anxieties in variety of forms, and have, drilled that as a messaging.

Jeremy Zogby: But as we know, all of the top issues, whether it's crime, immigration, job loss, the economy, and even AI, all boils down to a lack of security.

Jeremy Zogby: That party which is going to be successful in the midterms is the party that's going to be able to frame the messaging around security and give the sense, a believable sense, of which, which party [00:18:00] understands the various anxieties that voters have, 'cause it's full spectrum.

Jeremy Zogby: And, that's what Tr- Trump, I think, was more successful, regarding the-- versus Harris in 2024. I think he was touching on that, But how is he gonna come back? How, are MAGA gonna, prove that, "Hey, give us another shot"? they're gonna have to work very hard for it, and they're gonna have to find the magic, magic messaging

John Zogby: I'm gonna jump in for the last word here. gonna find their messaging based on his performance at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. That was, embarrassing, humiliating, and insulting, and, frankly, I just kept saying to myself, "This is the President of the United States. Is, this what we've become?" need to get into the details, and don't [00:19:00] watch it. it, was very upsetting. Have a good week.

Jeremy Zogby: We will

John Zogby: Okay. Take care.