Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] independent voters, are very dissatisfied with the leadership in this country and very concerned about where it's all headed.
this is no longer the Iran war. This is a converging, converging, broadening war. And if it doesn't stop, it can get really out of control
John Zogby: You're hearing from MAGA, as well as, man on the street who are saying we don't think that the president has our priorities, let alone the priorities of the American people.
John Zogby: Welcome to Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. I'm John Zogby. Hello, Jeremy. How are you?
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, I'm doing well. How about you?
John Zogby: Good, thanks. Gonna get started right away. yes, there's gonna be real polling in real time, and no, for the ma-most part, it's not gonna be ours. We're gonna look at some recent polls, [00:01:00] United States Senate and on President Trump. we already celebrated the fact that there was about 100 days to go be-before election day. Now a little bit less than that, and this is a good time to, take an assessment how the elections are looking. So let's get some context here If you look at the last 12 polls that are in the RealClearPolitics average, with, of them have the president in the 30s as far as approval rating is concerned, anywhere from 33 to 39. two of them have the president in the mid-40s. But the average of the last 12 polls is 38%. That's the lowest average that the president has had thus far. addition to that, we're down to 27%, according to AP, NORC, who support the [00:02:00] president on the war in Iran, and only 27% feel that the president has the right priorities for the nation. That was all underscored, I think, by the criticism of his talk at the White House Correspondents' Dinner last Friday night, where he talked about, but what the American people are concerned about. Spent about 20 minutes just on the White House ballroom, and yet, you're hearing from MAGA, as well as, man on the street who are saying th- this is not what we care about, we don't think that the president has our priorities, let alone the priorities of the American people. The congressional generic, that imperfect question, but we look at it all the time, has the Democrats leading average by five percentage points, which would [00:03:00] indicate the Democrats doing well in November. However, the last two polls have the, the Democrats leading by seven and one by Emerson College, very respected university poll, has the, the Democrats leading by points, something that we talked about. That's the broader context, but how does it translate into some actual races? Now, we know the Democrats are on a tightrope. have got to unify their two very diverse and hostile, I might add, factions in order to win. They have to have a very high turnout. How does that translate into how they're doing in some of the high-profile Senate races? Democrats have to pick up, six seats in order to take control of the Senate. Let's take a look at some of the seats that are in play need to [00:04:00] shift, to the Democratic side. So you have Susan Collins, incumbent in Maine, who manages to pull out a victory every six years.
This is her fifth term that she's running for. I'm not gonna go into all d- all the details about Graham Platner, but former president of the, Maine Senate, Troy Jackson, in the first poll that has been taken in that race with Jackson now, launching his campaign, has Jackson actually leading by two or three points.
So in other words, it doesn't appear that the Democrats have missed a beat by getting Platner out of the race and, handicapping, Troy Jackson The second seat that we look at that could flip is Ohio, where you have Sherrod Brown, who had been a longtime Democratic senator, a darling of the progressives, but, respected as well among the [00:05:00] mainstream in the party.
that race has been going back and forth, Democrat, Republican. However, the last couple of polls, are, split with a two-point, Sherrod Brown lead versus a two-point Husted That's a toss-up, but right now it looks like it's leaning Dem according to some of the betting markets, but it's very, close. is another one. Joni Ernst, the Republican, deciding not to run for another term. And, Josh Turek, who, has physical challenges, and is a Special Olympian, is leading that race. had been leading by three, but recent polls show the Democrat over Angie Hinton, actually doing, better that. [00:06:00] Iowa's a funny state. It had been Democrat, and then for years, a swing state, and now for the last decade or so, a repli- a reliably Republican state. It looks like the, governor's race is also very competitive, and so we may be talking a different Iowa come, early November in, pa- post-election. We jump over to North Carolina, Thom Tillis, a f- a Republican thorn in the side to President Trump, who has decided to not run. North Carolina, the same sort of thing. A swing state, but it's been, it has voted for Trump, in the, past election. But it looks like, Cooper former governor is, I'm not gonna say running away with it, but six, seven-point lead over Whatley, [00:07:00] it's been consistent.
There hasn't been anything that has moved that state one way or another. We shift down to Georgia. Jon Ossoff , running for re-election, won by a hair few years ago, and this was en- enough to, given the fact also that, Trump won, Georgia in 2024, enough for pundits to suggest that the Georgia was, was not looking good and that he could be-- Ossoff could be actually the vulnerable Democrat. But today, he's pulling away in that race, over a fellow named Collins with MAGA support. Ossoff , In fact, has become a national darling as well for the Democrats. So a lot of people looking at big and important Georgia. Over now to Texas. [00:08:00] Fascinating race. you have Ken Paxton, attorney general of the state, very controversial, very...
I'm gonna put the word in quotes because others have said it, very corrupt as well, both in his personal life and in his, life. Ken Paxton was anticipated to win simply because Republicans win in Georgia, and Democrats have seen their favored Democratic candidates fall by the wayside. it looks like, James Talarico, who's a very different kind of candidate, is, ahead, is ahead by three, four, in that race. their lead is actually growing. Too soon to tell, but it does, look like it's leaning, in the, Democrats' way. And then [00:09:00] finally, unless I've missed one, Michigan is a Repub- is a Democratic seat, Jim Peters. Michigan, is going through a very bloody Senate Democratic primary featuring, Abdul El-S-Sayed, a medical doctor and a healthcare professional versus Haley Stevens, who has been in the House of Representatives. Haley Stevens not only representing the establishment of the party, but together with heavy funding from AIPAC, which is proving to be very controversial, has been spending $60 million thus far with a promise of that much more in the general election should she win. Abdul El-Sayed is going the Bernie progressive route, fundraising as well, as [00:10:00] message, and now is leading that race by 14, 15 points. also show that in a general election against Mike Rogers, a former, congressman, Republican congressman who was of the Armed Services Committee, I believe, that, Abdul El-Sayed does better against Mike Rogers than Haley Stevens does. So right now it looks like it's better than within the realm of possibility that Democrats could take both houses.
That's as far as I'll go. Obviously, the caveat, anything can happen. frankly, these days, anything always does happen, but that's where we're at today, July 31st, Jer
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, it's important to remember that because things can change on a, a dime, especially [00:11:00] in 2026, and that phenomenon has been with us for, quite a few years now, surprises. but just to kinda go back to the overall picture here about everything that you're talking about, fir- first off, let's, address what you said about the White House Correspondents' Dinner last week.
I, I, of course, didn't watch it. I'll be honest with you, I have made a habit, over the years not to watch those things. I, do tend to read about them, though, the day after. I, I, can believe that, that maybe some MAGA voters weren't happy with that, but I think it's even bigger than that, and I, know you would agree with this, too.
it's beyond the White House Correspondents' Dinners. I wanna give two examples, one micro, one macro. We'll start with the micro among many lawyers that our president has, there is one lawyer in [00:12:00] particular that he's had over the years that goes back to the, the 2020, election, fraud case, I guess you could call it.
the claims that the battleground states elections, particularly Georgia, that the president thought were rigged, stolen, et cetera. One of his lawyers, who goes by the name of Robert Barnes, controversial figure, interesting figure, but the point is, has been a staunch Trump and MAGA supporter over the years, going back to Trump's first presidency in 2016, in my opinion, one of the most vocal supporters, has recently shifted completely in his opinion about the president.
And to me, that's a major signal because when you are pro-Trump for 10 years and then, [00:13:00] let's say within the last month, maybe last two months, say, "All right, this, is it," "This guy has gone off the rails," that is a major signal, okay? And what it is in particular wasn't so much the White House Correspondent's Dinner, but rather than he's been open about the fact that, through what he's seen, what he's heard, what the, the chatter in, in, in, in, the network is, that, the president, a- and we know this, is listening to sycophants.
he said the old Trump was a kinda guy who was obsessed with a second opinion. In the words of this guy, Robert Barnes, Trump was always... whatever the case was, whatever the topic was, Trump was saying, "I want a second opinion. I want a second opinion." He says that's, no longer the case. He [00:14:00] doesn't wanna hear second opinions.
He's not open to second opinions. He only wants to be told what he's heard or, what he wants, to hear. He's only listening to, to Fox News. he's taking his information about the war in Iran from Fox News, okay? which is a good segue into the macro picture, right? Let me just pause right there.
You talked about the Emerson poll that came out. I'm looking at this poll that came out, on July 23rd. As you said, it's showing that Democrats are ahead in the congressional generic by 11 points. What I find particularly interesting about this poll is the party breakout. Let me share that with you. in their poll, their modeling party, breakout or turnout, 32% of the electorate as Democrats 34% of the [00:15:00] electorate as Republican and 34% of the electorate as independent.
And so we're getting back to a point, if you believe the Emerson poll, that the independents are... and actually, if you get down to the tenth of the percent, the independents are the plurality. Remember, that was almost the case in November of 2024, okay? What that means in this moment is that more people are breaking away from the two-party system, and they're identifying more as independent.
That doesn't surprise me. I'm not gonna say that's fact, 'cause there is fluidity to this. This can change. But it does clue me in on the dissatisfaction with the two parties. Now, of course, because we're in the age of h- hyperpolarization, you're always going to have those Democrats who will go down with the Democratic ship and the [00:16:00] Republicans who will go down with the Republican ship.
But what is driving that 11-point lead among the Democrats is this large block of voters that is the independent vote, who clearly are shifting towards the Democrats. Now, they don't break it out with crosstabs, but I just know that by the basic math, that 11-point lead is coming from a significant portion of independent voters who are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in this country led by the president.
The big story, of course, it-- now it's not just the war in Iran It's a broadening war. What has happened in the last week is unbelievable. I'm gonna give you just a, a brief survey of what's going on. It's not just Is- Israel and Iran and the United States.
have the Houthis, who are at war with Saudi Arabia.
Now we [00:17:00] have the Ukraine under Zelensky, who ordered an attack against Iran. Now, today, this morning, and I don't know if this is true or not, it hasn't been confirmed, but the Polish are saying that something like a bomb, perhaps a nuclear bomb, went off n- near the Ukrainian, Polish border, and they're saying that it's Russia now.
I know that there are a lot of people in Poland who detest Russia, and they want Russia off the map, and so we have to be very careful about this analysis. But what I'm getting at is that this is no longer the Iran war. This is a converging, converging, broadening war. And if it doesn't stop, it can get really out of control because now it's not just the Strait of Hormuz, it's Bab el-Mandeb, which do you know what that means in Arabic, by the way?
John Zogby: [00:18:00] I don't
Jeremy Zogby: it means, the Strait of Tears or the s- the, the, Strait of Despair, and there's just a biblical reference to it. But that kind of gives you an idea of, those two straits shutting down. Here's the point that I want to get. America has been involved in a lot of wars since World War II.
Obviously, Vietnam hit home with the death of 60,000 soldiers. The Gulf War, the Afghanistan War hit home because there were deaths in the thousands. I don't think-- I'm not sure if they reached tens of thousands. Definitely not like Vietnam. This war is different because at this point, it-- there is no ground invasion, but this is something that is reverberating throughout the v- the global economy, and I don't think that you need to be a geopolitical ana- analyst to understand that we're getting very close to feeling those effects, [00:19:00] markets being roiled, prices going up.
And I'm getting at this larger point that a critical mass of American voters, particularly independent voters, are very dissatisfied with the leadership in this country and very concerned about where it's all headed. So to go back to your point about why it's not surprising that if the election were held today, we do think that Democrats would be far ahead, very ahead.
I don't know about taking, six seats. I, have no idea. But unless the president can turn something around, which I don't think he can because this is his war now. It was Net- in, in my opinion, it was Netanyahu's war. It was a hot potato that he passed on to the president and said, "Here, this is yours now.
Go deal with it." And the president has owned it, and he can't get out of it, and that's the state of affairs that we're [00:20:00] in right now
John Zogby: Okay. Wow. I'm gonna just leave with two closing points. W- First, clarification, I didn't mean to suggest that it all revolved around the White House Correspondents' Dinner. I don't think anybody watched it,
frankly, and I only had it on, honestly, 'cause I like the mentalist entertainer that followed, and he was awesome, Oz Pearlman. but it was endemic of the president's inability to focus on issues that matter to the American people, and so I used that as a, a springboard. Secondly,
Jeremy Zogby: Tone deaf, in other words.
John Zogby: Urinal, what's that?
Jeremy Zogby: Tone deaf, in other words
John Zogby: Yeah. on top of that, most recent CNN poll that just came out yesterday that, the president is down eight points among, [00:21:00] white educated men, or as he calls them, poorly educated men. This is a group that he won by th- 23 points 2024, and now down by eight points. That's a 31-point downward swing. And so that's further evidence that as of this moment, Republicans are not doing well with, Trump as their leader. That's it for me right now
Jeremy Zogby: I would call that a tour de force of national and geopolitical politics in about 17 minutes
John Zogby: Good.
Jeremy Zogby: We have a knack for it. Yeah.
John Zogby: good, broadcast.
Thanks, Jer
Jeremy Zogby: I could press you for more, but I think people wanna start the weekend
John Zogby: Yeah. Listen to this and then go have some fun, please
Jeremy Zogby: Have a good weekend
John Zogby: Thanks. You too
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