[00:00:00]
Jeremy Zogby: The Biden and the Trump presidencies, to me, like Caligula and Nero, and what that means is this is much larger problem American governance that has become so ineffective regardless of party.
John Zogby: he is digging a deeper and deeper hole. I don't know what he could do to stop digging.
Jeremy Zogby: How do you come back from that? History shows you don't
John Zogby: Okay, it's Friday. It's another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And once again, as we've done for many years now, I'm John, I'm the founder, and I'm here with the managing partner, Jeremy. How are you doing this week?
Jeremy Zogby: I'm doing great. And, I think you have a [00:01:00] very pressing, important topic that I caught the very gist of when I talked to you earlier today. So why don't you share what that is?
John Zogby: Yeah, I'm going to. There's obviously so many things to talk about, but I think the, the time is right to ask, about the Trump presidency. Is this a failed presidency? And for that matter, the adjunct to that question is, it even salvageable at this time? I, there's a whole litany. y- there's the war in Iran, and that is a quagmire because it's like a rat in a maze, and sorry if people are offended by that metaphor.
But the bottom line is every which way he turns, there is not a, a, a decent exit, for him, for the United States for that matter. That's connected obviously with, [00:02:00] runaway inflation, consumer price, consumer lack of confidence, the price of gas, at the pump. It's related as well to the national debt, which, went over $40 trillion, an unfathomable figure, and on its way to $50 trillion in short order.
There is the bond market, which is at a 6% yield and on its way rather quickly, economists say, to a 7% yield, which means that if people wanna cash in their bonds, federal government, meaning us, we're gonna be paying ourselves basically to go into debt, even further, and there's so much more. But it's not only that.
The... It's two other factors that, are troubling. One [00:03:00] is that while all of this is going on, the president is talking about his ballroom and requesting that the Supreme Court approve the renovations to the ballroom since Congress, led by his own party, won't. The president's talking about his new helipad, as if that's anything that people care about.
He's trashing sailors on the USS Lincoln. he's talking about things basically that Americans are not talking about, and it's obviously catching up with his polling numbers because regardless of which poll you're looking at, every poll has him now at his lowest he's ever been. the other troubling thing about this is his legacy.
is this h- how he wants to [00:04:00] be known? And when I look at the other failed presidents, and historians agree, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, all of these right around, the, the Civil War, William Henry Harrison. The mistakes that they made were not because of a disregard
For the American people were selfish. They were sins of omission. James Buchanan leading up to the Civil War was described as an elderly man. He really wasn't. He was in his late 50s, early 60s, but dyspeptic, had been a successful diplomat and then into the presidency just failed to act, to stave off a civil war.
Franklin Pierce's son died right around the time of the inauguration, and he and his wife were despondent. [00:05:00] Herbert Hoover failed to act during the, Great Depression. William Henry Harrison got pneumonia on Inauguration Day and died about a month later. But this President Trump, these are sins of commission.
The war in Iran is his. He owns it. He may try to fend off blame elsewhere, but it's his war, and he doesn't seem to be able to get out, and anything that the United States actually is, offering to Iran is some sort of a buyout, some sort of a payout, some sort of an indication of US humiliation, not unlike Vietnam and not unlike Afghanistan.
And so i- is there anything that the president can do to salvage his reputation? Now, with that [00:06:00] said, I'm not gonna go into this 'cause we spent a lot of time on it. The Democrats are not at a high point either, and there are serious internal problems, so I'm not getting really into a partisan sort of thing.
I'm getting into a legacy sort of thing. What's that, the, Cooperstown Hall of Fame plaque that has the one paragraph or the seventh grade social studies book that gives the president a few paragraphs on a page with a big picture? Is there anything good that will be said about Donald Trump?
Jeremy Zogby: that's a great question, but I, have to step back
and I... You've made an argument rooted in history I guess I would start like this Yeah. I, it's very fashionable [00:07:00] and, a lot of voters feel- is the problem.
no question about it. But I see him more a symptom of a larger problem,
okay? you know me, I've... Like you, you love history, I love history. I, tend to love the the more ancient history because in the modern era We have a very ideological way of orienting or, navigating through the modern events because the modern era is born of the age of ideology,
ideologies.
But when you go to the ancient histories, you transcend that. You move beyond ideology. There's no going back to ancient history [00:08:00] and, taking a liberal or a conservative approach because that didn't exist back then. And so, I'm rooting mine in a long-term view, and I- I'm just gonna be straight with you. The Biden and the Trump presidencies, to me, like Caligula and Nero, and what that means is this is much larger problem American governance that has become so ineffective regardless of party. There are just so many issues, like you mentioned with the national debt. $40 trillion is never going to get paid off. America is addicted to warfare. America is addicted to being the global cop, and that was true of whichever presidency we really look at. There are regime changes. There's intervention. there is, increasingly a rabid form of politics. MAGA [00:09:00] is definitely contributing to that on the Republican side, and the whole wokeism stuff is contributing to that on the Democratic side. This is effectively a cultural rot. and to get to your point about whether Trump will go down, hi- his administration as among the worst, I do think a strong case can be made for that, and I think the way to measure that is... Look, it's, it's-- make no mistake about it. It's not uncommon that a president, campaigns a certain way and then does a 180.
I think most voters are accustomed to that,
there was so much hype going up into November of 2024 and after his victory. l- look, whether you love him or hate him, admit he ran a hell of a campaign. do I know that? He turned out Hispanic voters. They went for him. He turned out union [00:10:00] voters. went for him. Maybe not a majority of them, but a large number of them. He got first-time voters. He got very, high, I don't wanna say record level, but at least maybe in the last 30, 40 years, he got record level of African American voters on his side. Even the youth vote, the under 30, by one percentage point went for Trump. And what I see is the story of hubris that- He just, winning all the battleground states and this Trump 2.0 juggernaut, it's almost like it went to his head. it- immediately upon taking office, never forget on In- Inauguration Day, very-- I was very concerned from the get-go because there was a platform who were present watching him, during Inauguration Day, and that were the billionaire class, a lot of the tech billionaires.
And I thought, "Oh, boy, the symbolism of that does not look good." [00:11:00] This doesn't look like a presidency that's really going to deliver for the common man. looks more like a presidency that's going to deliver for the billion, billionaire dollar man, and men and women. so that was the beginning of the unraveling, the tariff, what they call the tariff wars, and the madness behind that. Of course, the Epstein files, which is not just limited to Trump, it's limited to both parties. But make no mistake about it, the President is referenced thirty-eight thousand times in the Epstein files that are publicly released. There are still millions more. And then, of course, the final blow the Iran war.
This was a man who said, "End the forever wars," and he was very convincing about it. He was very convincing about it, for a lot of people. And as you mentioned, he's in a quagmire now, and now he's doubling [00:12:00] down. it's obvious to those who are objective in analyzing geopolitical events that his pivot to economic strangulation almost an admittance military defeat. They were not able to take out the regime like they thought they would. They were not able to rally the Iranian people to welcome, American leadership or rebel against, the, the Iranian regime. And they've spent a lot of money. The Gulf, countries are destroyed. oil markets are roiled, and the effects from this war have not been fully felt. And make no mistake about it, they will, and they may be felt more before the midterms, which is gonna be very bad for the president. But now he pivots to economic strangulation, within one day, China says, [00:13:00] "No, we're not gonna side with you." Because the message from Scott Bessent, the Secretary, was You know, hearkening back to George W.
Bush, you're either with us or against us, and if you support Iran, you're an enemy. China comes out the next day and China says, "We're with Iran." China is a massively powerful country. And so everything is just falling apart from a very, big high of a sweeping victory with an amazing victorious coalition down to an approval rating in the 30s among a lot of pollsters, including yours truly. How do you come back from that? History shows you don't
John Zogby: All right, so what you've laid out more eloquently is the scenario that I laid out. [00:14:00] Is it salvageable? Now, this is pure speculation on our part. Okay, so let's, let's put our strategist hats on. first of all, if I got a call, I wouldn't take it from the White House. I would feign a coughing fit or something like that.
but suppose I was in a, a magnanimous mood. what would I say? I don't think... I you know how y- he, he is digging a deeper and deeper hole. I don't know what he could do to stop digging. So let's lay it out. Can he stop the war in Iran? Yes. can it be resolved in any way?
No. yes, he can resolve it by just [00:15:00] withdrawing, but that's retreat. That'll be seen as retreat. That'll be seen as a victory for the ayatollahs. That'll be seen as counter to everything that the president allegedly stood for by getting involved in the first place. he's already stated... I don't know who talks like this.
The, the Strait of Hormuz is US territory. If Oman doesn't cooperate in these negotiations, which incidentally aren't really going on anyway, but if Oman doesn't cooperate, we'll bomb Oman. Look at the level the rhetoric has taken, and Americans can poo-poo that and maybe say, "Oh, that's the president mouthing off again.
You know what he's like." But if you're Oman, if, you're in the entire [00:16:00] 90% of the rest of the world, that's not seen as just a buffoon talking. That's seen as very, very dangerous. What about the, the, price of oil, the price of gas at the pump? I don't know, we're-- our strategic reserve is, I'm not gonna say depleted, but it's down.
It's at the lowest level that it's been. And do we wanna drill, baby, drill? that is problematic politically as well as environmentally. inflation in the supermarket. those were already set in motion, with the closing off of, trade routes that starts with, with COVID, but then it continues with tariffs.
Then it continues with blockades. Do we end a blockade? That's retreat That's how it'll be seen. [00:17:00] Everywhere I turn, y- and as I said, here he is still talking about his ballroom. this, is, Egotism at its worst. Do people sit around the table with so many worries about paying their bills and the cost of groceries for their families and wonder, is he going to get his huge ballroom completed? Are the re-- is the building of a triumphal arch that blocks the view, incidentally, of a number of Washington monuments, is this what people are talking about?
Do they care whose name is on the Kennedy Center besides Kennedy? I think it, it's an unsalvageable presidency. Now mind you, [00:18:00] we're gonna continue polling it, and if his numbers go up, and then we gotta explain it. there's no built-in bias in the numbers that we produce. But this is me talking right now, and me as a longtime teacher and historian, I am really trying to think of how he salvages it.
And there, short of a miracle, I don't know
Jeremy Zogby: I guess in one way, salvage can mean the Republicans winning or holding,
right? And that would be the first step. And let's be, be fair. He-- I think it's fair to say he has crime on his side. Now, look, I don't know about the, the statistics. I tend to be skeptical about government statistics, regardless of the presidency.
but let's assume that, crime is down [00:19:00] as it's being reported. I, could s- think that's, believable.
got that, and that's a major issue. but to your point about the cost of living and inflation being exacerbated by oil, and which is exacerbated by this war, how does he cleverly get out?
And the only thing, and I don't know if this is a solution, but the only pivot that I could see that he were to come out and, this would help unite the Republican base. don't think this is gonna happen. I'm just saying, right? We're entertaining And he comes out and he makes a public announcement, he says, "I trusted our friend Israel in this war. I trusted that Netanyahu and their intelligence, because we sided with the intelligence of Israel. I trusted that, we could win this a [00:20:00] few weeks, a few months, and I gave it my best. And I have to say we were wrong. But now what we have to do is we have to be a real friend to Israel get them out of this war and get us out of this war, and we need to focus on America. We need to focus all of our energy on the Western Hemisphere and the people of America, and we cannot risk this spiraling out of control." That would be about the only thing that I could do, I, can think of, that would, placate those Republicans who are in the many who are very upset that he betrayed the notion of America first, and that he, has to re-own America first, not by talking about it, but by doing it. And that's one thing I can think of. But there's still the problem on the debt side, on... and look, you [00:21:00] can't just say, "Oh, that's Joe Biden." No. Look, it took 200 years to get to 1 trillion national debt, and every presidency, I believe that happened under Carter or Reagan, and every presidency since then has contributed to it, and he has a fair share in that. And how you get away from that, I don't know. I do know this. One day, American voters are going to wake up, and they are going to realize that our government is too expensive, and it is exhausting too much resources from the common people. And if he can find a way to address that, could help the Republican Party, and that may also appeal to some of the independent voters.
But that takes real guts, and I don't know that he's up for that challenge.
John Zogby: Nicely said, never happens. Those are my four words. so one minute only because we [00:22:00] really ought to address this in a future, near future podcast. polling is not dead. It's very much alive, and it's also very good. And there are mistakes that have been made, and there are bad mistakes that have been made in recent weeks in Michigan and Wisconsin, just to name two.
there are a lot of pollsters and a lot of folks now claiming to be pollsters. There's even a fraud or two here and there, and a confessed fraud. with that said, our track rec- record remains really strong. most recently, New Jersey of, of last year, and New York City, where we're the, we were the only pollsters to get the right order of, the f- the four candidates in the primary.
Jeremy Zogby: Don't forget California
John Zogby: And California as well, yep, [00:23:00] with, seeing Hilton, up there in, in second place. With that said, we're gonna address this and parse it, in a, a future podcast. But stick with us and stick with the industry. That's all I've got to say.
Jeremy Zogby: I, I'm gonna touch base on this in a Substack article, but people need to orient their perspective towards the reality that number one, every industry and profession people who get it wrong. Lawyers get it wrong. Clutch athletes don't always make the clutch shot to win the championship. And, investors sometimes-- a lot of times make a lot of people money, sometimes lose people, a lot of money. the way to look at it is this. Just like the Olympics, produces gold medalists, silver medalists, and bronze medalists, and then those who [00:24:00] don't even come close. And polling in elections is the same way. Every election has a pollster or a few who are correct, who are accurate, and there are many who are off. There are gold medalists, silver medalists, and bronze medalists, and we, Zogby Strategies, have our share of all three, gold, silver, and bronze. And that's pretty darn good, and there are other firms that can say that as well. Shift your perspective towards the winners, not the losers
John Zogby: this one winner is signing off. we'll, be back shortly
Jeremy Zogby: And this younger second winner is, signing off as well
John Zogby: All right. Have a good week
Jeremy Zogby: You too
[00:25:00]