John Zogby: [00:00:00] The two, fringes, but left and right wings parties still generate controversy.

Jeremy Zogby: what that tells me is that the independents, no surprise here, have had it with MAGA, and the only way for the Republican Party to win in twenty twenty-eight, of course, this is as of this moment, is for them to pull back and not continue MAGA.

John Zogby: It's one thing to be elected President of the United States with a majority, but it's a whole other thing when you've got one-third are adamantly opposed to you

John Zogby: and, can make some noise

John Zogby: It's another Friday. That means another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And once again, I'm here, I'm John Zogby, and I'm with my son, managing partner Jeremy [00:01:00] Zogby. You doing okay?

Jeremy Zogby: I am. How about you?

John Zogby: I'm doing just fine, thanks. So we have Real Polling in real time, and, w- we, we like to go where no one else goes. it's been a tradition here. And so we wanted to plumb the depths a bit, and find out, how powerful is our Democratic socialists as far as, electorate is concerned, and, the same thing about MAGA. And then while we're at it, take a look at the establishment of the Democratic Party and more establishment, wing of the Republican Party. we, did it in a number of ways. I'm gonna go over a couple, and then you've got some really fascinating breakdown. So first of all, we've mentioned this one before. What if the candidate in 2028 for president of the United States [00:02:00] a Democratic socialist Democrat and a MAGA Republican? What we discovered that the Democratic socialists would actually win 45 to 33. Pretty substantial and you're welcome to write to us and ask us for details if you'd like. at the same time, we wondered, what about an establishment Democrat versus a MAGA And we found 50, m- even more would support the establishment Democrat, 32 would stick with the MAGA, What if we turn the tables and we took a look at, The establishment Republican versus Democratic socialist, that was a tighter race, but still at 42, the Democratic socialist comes out on top the establishment GOP, 39, [00:03:00] 42 39. And then what about just straight up an establishment Democrat, 46%, versus an establishment Republican at 37? Now, what we also did And have always loved to do this, and have not invented it to be sure. Other pollsters a long time ago have done it. Who would you, not vote for? And what we've discovered is that among, when we asked about, the likelihood of voting for a Democratic socialist, 46% said they'd be likely in some form to vote for the socialist, 43% said not. What about a MAGA candidate? 36% said they'd be likely to support the MAGA candidate, 54% said not. [00:04:00] and we have a lot of, other stuff here. I'll just end it with this one stat before you get into your real fascinating s- questions. would you never vote for? And we had all four major parties. 13% said they would never vote for the establishment Democrat. said they would never vote for establishment GOP candidate. would never vote for a MAGA candidate. 31% never for a Democratic socialist candidate. Boy, there's a lot of meat there. But let's jump to what you've got, which takes us, even a bit further. Go ahead.

Jeremy Zogby: actually, so what, real quick before I get into that, what's your takeaway?

John Zogby: Takeaway is that [00:05:00] the, the two, fringes, but left and right wings parties still generate controversy. when you hear that roughly about one-third would never, v- never is a strong word. That means if the party goes, either or both parties go with that fringe, they start out with a solid base against them. And if the solid base is, one of the... I hesitate to use the word extreme, one of the less mainstream ideologies, that doesn't only mean opposition, it means a vocal activist opposition, which means trouble. it's one thing to be elected President of the United States with a majority, but it's a whole other thing when you've got one-third are adamantly opposed to you and, can make some [00:06:00] noise

Jeremy Zogby: I'll tell you what jumped out at me before I get into my, angle on this, is, and when you went over the generic labels of the, the MAGA versus the socialism, and then the establishment varieties and, each establishment variety versus the, the MAGA and the socialist generic label.

Jeremy Zogby: And y- you pointed this out, what really stuck, stuck out was, the Democratic socialist versus the establishment Republican was the closest race,

Jeremy Zogby: where the Democratic socialist in this head-to-head was ahead, by only three percentage points, which, we could say is, within the margin of error.

Jeremy Zogby: it's a tight race. But what happens when we breathe life into that [00:07:00] and, put actual people, personalities to those labels, and I think it would go something like this. That would basically mean an AOC versus a Marco Rubio

Jeremy Zogby: And, that's not to say AOC is gonna be, the favorite.

Jeremy Zogby: That's just to say that would be the type of candidate, real candidate, that would fit that label. And I know Marco Rubio is, is-- right? He's in the Trump cabinet, and he has to talk MAGA. But I think when all is said and done, and I'm assuming he's gonna throw his hat into twenty twenty-eight, I don't think he's gonna try to Trump or even try to be the next Trump.

Jeremy Zogby: I think he's gonna go back to what he was, wh-- and arguably [00:08:00] what he is, an establishment Republican. And so that just helps breathe understanding and life into that very important data point of the closest race, the D- the DSA versus the establishment Republican. And what that tells me, and we know this from the data, the independents are really driving this.

Jeremy Zogby: And what that tells me is that the independents, no surprise here, have had it with MAGA, and the only way for the Republican Party to win in twenty twenty-eight, of course, this is as of this moment, is for them to pull back and not continue MAGA. And that's what the independent voters are calling for. I'm gonna just shed a little bit of light here.

Jeremy Zogby: Normally, pollsters do the favorable versus unfavorable ratings. We've, always done that.

Jeremy Zogby: I wanted to change it to asset [00:09:00] versus liability, more specifically, in the context of for this nation. So we went through personalities like Trump and Harris and Newsom and Obama, Rubio, AOC, but then we also did the Democratic socialists, and we did MAGA.

Jeremy Zogby: I don't wanna get into the people, because those numbers... we know those numbers, from covering them extensively. But just keeping in line with your opening on the generic label horse races, when we asked about the Democratic socialists of America, what do voters, rate them in terms of are they an asset, are they a liability?

Jeremy Zogby: The ratio-- Again, this is overall voters. This is the overall, sample. Thirty-three percent of voters said the DSA is an asset to America. [00:10:00] Forty-four percent said a liability. let's contrast that with MAGA, again, overall voters. 25% said MAGA is an asset for America, 45% said they're a liability. So Democratic socialists, in the eyes of overall voters, are underwater by 11 percentage points.

Jeremy Zogby: In the eyes of voters, MAGA is underwater 20, and that goes back to our point. This is driven by the independent voters, and we've talked about this a lot, who I would say somewhere maybe towards the end of Trump's honeymoon, his first 100 days, definitely, after the first 100 days, Trump just started bleeding the independent voters.

Jeremy Zogby: I'm gonna zero in on [00:11:00] them regarding the asset liability ratio when you look at independents, only twenty-five percent of them say that the socialists are an asset. Forty-six say that they're a liability. That makes the Democratic socialists underwater twenty-one percentage points in the eyes of independents.

Jeremy Zogby: And then on the flip side, this is shocking, maybe not, but the numbers are powerful. Seventeen percent of independents said MAGA is an asset. Sixty-three percent said they're a liability. So this is pretty clear here between everything that we've said, is everything MAGA is in serious trouble, especially among independent voters.

Jeremy Zogby: It's not that the DSA, the Democratic socialists, are setting the world on fire. They are maybe, arguably, in the Democratic Party, but not with [00:12:00] independents. But the independents are more open to them, and that just all goes back to the notion of buyer's remorse, that Trump did not deliver on what he promised in the campaign.

Jeremy Zogby: And the last thing I wanna say is, so-- And we touched base on this last week. What could MAGA do? Is there even anything that MAGA could do to resurrect this? And in the moment, they're pushing hard, MAGA, in the midterms, leading up to the midterms. They're pushing hard on two things, I think, to attempt to rally support from independents that this country's moving towards a full-blown socialist country if we let the Democrats win.

Jeremy Zogby: Another thing I'm starting to see in a very similar strategy is, and this is in light of, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, that you're starting to see this creep out in the repi- Republican messaging, [00:13:00] we're headed towards Sharia law. My question is, that a winnable strategy?

John Zogby: If that question is for me, the answer is absolutely no. has been enough time for American Muslims to establish themselves in the, in their communities within the political system. And there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Sharia law has been brought to parent-teacher organizations, to, Little League baseball, to anything mainstream that they participate in. their kids, and the, the population is small but pretty substantial, especially in communities, their kids are winning scholarships. Their kids are mainstream. most of their kids do not speak with any accents. [00:14:00] and

John Zogby: That kind of nativism, certainly shows up, in, dramatic news events, but certainly not in the mainstream of American life and our communities. I have another take that I want to add on to, to build, build onto your point, and that is while MAGA is viewed across every age group as upside down, more, say it's a liability than, than an asset. when it comes to Democratic socialism falls off a cliff. There is substantial, there's a substantial viewpoint among, the younger groups, that is Millennials and Gen Z, it being an asset and f- less so a liability. But then you start to see it, [00:15:00] the numbers of folks who say an asset decline a bit you move, up the age groups.

John Zogby: But still, there's a big difference, a- among the younger versus older voters

Jeremy Zogby: So my question is, and I don't have the answer, is, look, I don't want to deny the fact that there's-- like nativism exi- exists in every nation, right? I think you're always gonna see that. that pivot to the strategy as I see playing out, as I see maybe hitting harder and harder, if I'm correct, coming from MAGA, could be interpreted as, a panic.

Jeremy Zogby: How do we stop the, march of, the Democratic socialists? How do we stop the Democrats from winning in the midterms? But I [00:16:00] think at the end of the day, i-i-- there's gonna have to be more than that. we're, as I've written about, i-in a situation where there is a confluence, a convergence of many issues, whether it's the war in Iran, that Scott Bessent, the Secretary of Treasury, has now moved towards a, FDR s-strangling of Japan style, diplomacy, economic strangulation of, of Iran, which we call economic warfare, which begets hot war,

Jeremy Zogby: all the way to his drastic measures and what he says he has to do and will do to keep the bond market afloat, which is on shaky grounds, all the way to the possibility of inflation, [00:17:00] another wave of inflation rearing its, ugly head again, and just a whole host of other things.

Jeremy Zogby: it really looks like the dam could be bursting. And I just go back to the question of, what do the Republicans do? What do the Democrats do? Because my sense is it's right now August twenty-eighth, and over the course of September and October, I see a lot of things coming to the surface before the election, major things

John Zogby: I do too, and I will contemplate it all because you and I, we live, we're about an hour and a half of, from Lake Ontario, wi- will always be Lake Ontario. Have a good week

Jeremy Zogby: Take care

[00:18:00]