Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] This is, where we ask the question, is there any hope for Trump and for the Republican Party?

John Zogby: we used to say that he gets 42% just for showing up, that is the core MAGA base. Looks to me like he's losing a significant chunk of the core MAGA base just on the most pressing issues of the day.

Jeremy Zogby: we can pinpoint that downfall to the Iran war. Also, the Epstein files were, a huge blow too. but we'll say that the solidified blow to the MAGA ju- MAGA juggernaut was the Iran war.

John Zogby: welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And once again, two Zogbys. I'm John, and I'm up here in New Hartford, New York, where I live and work. And there is my son and managing [00:01:00] partner of John Zogby Strategies, Jeremy,

Jeremy Zogby: An undisclosed location, but near,

John Zogby: location.

John Zogby: Okay, yeah.

Jeremy Zogby: though.

John Zogby: Near,

Jeremy Zogby: A- and just to be clear, not your basement about 10 mile, about five miles from where you are

John Zogby: No, it's been a while since you've been in the basement.

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah.

John Zogby: All right, so have a lot to talk about. We promised real polling in real time. That's exactly what we have, not only today with exclusive numbers that literally, came to me at 11:00 night, but, also over the next several podcasts we'll be releasing, I think, some fascinating data that no one else is doing. So let's, get right into it, okay? the... every week is earth-shattering. There is so much that's going on, and so we've tried to address a lot of, issues. [00:02:00] But as always, as a baseline, let's start with, president's approval And what we found, Jer, is that overall his approval rating is 38%, who approve and 59% who disapprove.

John Zogby: And for us, that's our lowest that we have recorded. We've generally been in and around 42, 43, 44. He's dropped six points, since our latest poll about him. And, it's... as we look at the details, it's easy to see why.

Jeremy Zogby: Could, I interject real quick on a, a major point? And then, and I'm gonna toss it right back to you. But we've been hearing, I would say for months now from popular-- other popular polling outfits that the president was in the 30s. I think that they were jumping way too quickly to the conclusion [00:03:00] and undermining the strength of support that the president had from MAGA and enough right-leaning independent voters.

Jeremy Zogby: But I say that when Zogby comes out with 38% approval below 40, that it's, it's a decided deal because we've always been in the middle, not by design, just by being independent, and I just wanted to lay that out

John Zogby: No, I think that's an important distinction to make. But nonetheless, here is where we are and here's where the president is, and there's no question about the fact that there's been, serious slippage. why? let's take a look at president's rating on individual, issues, okay? So overall, 38 approve, 59 disapprove. On Iran, and this was totally predictable way back when we got into the war, [00:04:00] 33% approve of his handling of Iran, 61% disapprove. And feel free to jump in at any time. has been his best issue right along, and here we find he's upside down. approve of his handling of immigration, 51% disapprove. what about the economy overall? He gets a 35% approval rating on the economy, 59% disapprove. The issue of affordability, which is separate unto itself, 32% approve, 62% disapprove. Foreign policy, 35 approve, 57 disapprove. 32% approve and 60% disapprove. [00:05:00] What about crime? Another major issue, crime and safety. approve, 51% disapprove. And then finally, on just the issue that we have been tracking since the Clinton Are you proud or ashamed that Donald Trump is president of the United States? He's down to 29% who are proud, 54% who are ashamed. by way of context that we used to say that he gets 42% just for showing up, that is the core MAGA base. Looks to me like he's losing a significant chunk of the core MAGA base just on the most pressing issues of the day. Why don't you jump in here and I'll be back with some more comments

Jeremy Zogby: I, wanna go back to a term that I was using leading up to 2024, and that was [00:06:00] the Trump juggernaut. And that was in the context of his strength on the issue of immigration, which then was the number two issue. And for, Republicans, it was the number one issue. For independents, it was a number two issue and a lot of independents.

Jeremy Zogby: And so when I looked at the top issues, I saw this intensity in MAGA's favor when it came to immigration and inflation, which the perception was that the Biden administration had, just completely lost control of, and those were the two issues. And the intensity really helped to carry the president to victory.

Jeremy Zogby: Widespread victory. He won all the battleground states. And there was this kind of, enthusiasm among, MAGA and, independents going into the inauguration and the first 100 days. And look, our polling in the first 100 days, the president was doing well. [00:07:00] He maintained the MAGA coalition, which was a quite different MAGA coalition from 2016.

Jeremy Zogby: It included young voters. It included Hispanics. It included first-time voters, people from all walks of life. And I'm gonna say at this point, here we are August 6, 2026, and I wanna divide the two timelines into basically hubris and nemesis. The success got so much into the minds, infected the minds of the MAGA-- I'm gonna say the MAGA administration and the MAGA voters, that nemesis or arrogance or downfall was only around the corner.

Jeremy Zogby: And we can pinpoint that downfall to the Iran war. Also, the Epstein files were, a huge blow too. but we'll say that the solidified blow to the MAGA ju- MAGA juggernaut was the Iran [00:08:00] war. And here we are in August, and you've shown that our numbers have settled the deal. The president is in the high thirties regarding his approval.

Jeremy Zogby: I was skeptical weeks ago of all the polling outfits that were jumping to that. And, look, I'm just being honest. Like I said, we've always been in the middle just by our independence. And so now we transition to the downfall, and weeks around the corner are the midterms. And so let's just start with some, some baseline stuff just to get an idea of where things are headed.

Jeremy Zogby: we ask, likelihood to vote, in, in the November election. Just a very basic screener question And I couldn't help but notice that seventy-six percent of Democrats said that they would definitely vote in the November midterms versus sixty-six Republicans. Okay? So something's going on there. we're gonna track [00:09:00] that.

Jeremy Zogby: Independents, forty-eight percent say definitely. Let's just focus on definitely and not go to the very likely, somewhat likely.

Jeremy Zogby: moving on. What about the congressional generic ballot? As you always point out, an imperfect metric because not all of our voters in the national sample are in a district that is, up for grabs or rather facing, an election this November.

Jeremy Zogby: But still, it's a bellwether. It's a barometer. We're showing today fifty-one percent going for the Democratic Party, forty percent going for the Republican Party. That is a, an eleven-point lead, and I think that's very believable. What about when we look at by party? Ninety-eight percent of Democrats say that they're gonna vote for that Democratic candidate in the congressional generic versus just ninety-two percent of [00:10:00] Republicans who say they're gonna vote for the Republican candidate.

Jeremy Zogby: Another advantage that I think we cannot overlook. and then of course the

John Zogby: interject in there and just do a little basic math here?

Jeremy Zogby: Yeah

John Zogby: 98% of Democrats, among whom, s- a larger number are enthusiastic about voting,

Jeremy Zogby: Yes

John Zogby: and 92% among Republicans who are 10 points less enthusiastic about voting

Jeremy Zogby: Correct. To your point. and then the independents really drive this home on the congressional generic ballot, who they're gonna vote for. 49% say for the Democrat, 21 for the Republican. So look This is, where we ask the question, is there any hope for Trump and for the Republican Party?

Jeremy Zogby: We're gonna go through the next layer of it, and that's the party strength series. We ask [00:11:00] which party handles better. This time we-- before, we typically just said Democrat or Republican. This time we gave a scale to it, something along the lines of, the Democratic Party is much stronger on this issue, the Democratic Party barely stronger on this issue, and then on the other side, the Republican Party barely stronger on this issue or the Republican Party much stronger.

Jeremy Zogby: We're just gonna focus on the much stronger. Affordability, the top issue, by the way, thirty-three percent of voters say Dems are much better. Only twenty-one percent of voters say the Republicans are much better. the number two issue, we're gonna go to fixing healthcare. We call it the state of health and healthcare.

Jeremy Zogby: This one, we're zeroing in on fixing healthcare. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats say... Oh, I'm sorry, thirty percent of overall voters say the Dems are much better. Only seventeen percent [00:12:00] say the Republicans are much better. I only got a few left here. What about immigration? This is supposed to be the signature Republican issue, right?

Jeremy Zogby: it's a tie. Thirty-one percent say Dems much better. Thirty-one percent say Republicans much better. Crime, another signature issue, at this point, one of the-- I don't want to say Hail Marys for the Republicans, but as you've talked about, a la Willie Horton and that effect that could take place if there's a big enough story.

Jeremy Zogby: in the moment right now, thirty percent say Republicans are much better, but twenty-eight percent say Dems are much better. And then the last one I'm gonna go with, is it's not really a political issue, but I think it's a barometer, keeping the American dream alive. And thirty-one percent say Dems are much better.

Jeremy Zogby: Twenty-three percent say Republicans are much better. [00:13:00] I'm gonna leave it at that. My closing remarks are that things are looking very dismal for the president. They're looking very dismal for the Republican Party. it's not a done deal because, crime and immigration are considerable issues.

Jeremy Zogby: And if those get out of hand because of a major story, it doesn't really look like that right now. It looks like MAGA and the Republicans are bleeding big time. How they would come back from this, it's gonna take some serious strategy and reflection among a group that I don't think know how to break from the current style of politics that they're engaging in

John Zogby: And I will only tee up, next time, since this is a brand new and fresh poll, we're gonna, be offering our podcast a little more often. So expect on [00:14:00] Monday, for us to come out with, numbers that no one else has come out with. We're, gonna take a look at, MAGA versus Democratic socialism and how that breaks, how that cuts. Who would Americans prefer if they had a choice of both? Who would they prefer if it was a Democratic socialist or a mainstream Republican, or a MAGA and a mainstream Democrat? I think some interesting choices and some interesting- And so we'll be back with those and, parse that probably on, on Monday.

Jeremy Zogby: I-- Yeah, and

John Zogby: think we hit a lot of numbers here. I'm done. Do you have anything else to

Jeremy Zogby: I just want to say that the branding of that new poll, like you said nobody else has, is everybody's talking about the congressional generic. this is our generic general election where we're doing the, like you said, the MAGA versus the Democratic socialist, and then throwing in [00:15:00] the establishment candidates on each side.

Jeremy Zogby: And so nobody else has done that. And, that's also gonna be a bellwether to figure out where things are headed. one other thing, p- we, we pivoted from favorable unfavorable ratings to asset liability ratings, and we'll have that among key entities and key individuals

John Zogby: Also too, who would you never vote for? You'll find that really intriguing. Okay, we have a lot, stay tuned.

John Zogby: Take care

Jeremy Zogby: Take care