Latest Midterm Poll - Things are Not What They Seem === Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] I think we could say both parties are charged. When you zero in on the independents, they are less enthusiastic, John Zogby: I would bet $5 that the Democrats win in November, but I won't bet $50, let alone 100 or, Jeremy Zogby: I'll frame it like this: that party which can deliver better on easing voters' anxieties and giving a sense of security is the party that I believe will have greater success in the midterms. John Zogby: Hi, it's Friday. Welcome back to our podcast, Real Polling in Real Time. I'm John Zogby, and there's Jer Jeremy Zogby: Hey, Dad. How's it going? John Zogby: it's going well. We got a lot of polling here, real polling in [00:01:00] real time, and 1,000 likely voters conducted just over the last couple of days, so it's, fresh. The ink is, s- is still wet. there are a lot of things, that emerged from the poll. We're gonna pretty much focus on the midterms, and, a look at, Democrats versus Republicans, with just about 40-plus days to go until the election. All is not as it seems. So gonna let you get into the details, but just the broad stroke, you're hearing more and more kind of a snowball effect. poised to win Kelsey, what the last I saw, 81% odds of taking over the House and over 50%, of Democrats taking over the Senate. And, I'm a little reluctant [00:02:00] about that. I, belong to the school that anything can happen because anything has happened. But there are maybe a few chinks in the armor, right? in our congressional generic, which last month was, a double digit differential between the Democrats and Republicans, is now a six-point differential, 48 to 42. I would still rather be 48 than 42. However, that, represents, I believe, about a four-point gain in the generic for Republicans and a couple of point, deficit for the Democrats, with last month. What are you seeing from those numbers? Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. and just, to clarify, 'cause there are people who, who follow this closely, it was a, it... Last month was a nine-point lead, so John Zogby: Okay? Jeremy Zogby: was almost dou- double digit. But I have the numbers here in front [00:03:00] of me, so you were calling them off the top of your head. But I think you captured it, exactly. I, woke up to the headline this morning. I think there was an even a headline yesterday about the prediction markets and the 83% likelihood Democrats are gonna sweep the Congress, or g- or win the Congress. and look, we've got six weeks, and from our last month, monthly poll to now, we have seen that lead that the Democrats had in virtually every poll. Virtually every poll coming out is showing Democrats ahead in the congressional generic, but our poll now shows that there is a narrowing, and I, would say somewhat of a Republican gaining ground, and as you said, Democrats losing ground. So I'm interested in what is it exactly that happened? when I dive [00:04:00] into the polls, one of the things that I notice right off the bat, again, comparing to last month, is last month we covered in our poll how there was a noticeable, even arguably significant advantage the Democrats had w- regarding turnout. As I recall, it was something like 75% of Democrats said they definitely will turn out to vote in the midterms versus 65% of Republicans who said definitely going to turn out to vote for the midterms. That was an advantage. Today, you fast-forward, you're looking at Democratic voters, 78% say they will definitely turn out. 76% of Republicans say they will definitely turn out. So we see, month over month, a surge [00:05:00] on the Republican side- narrowing the enthusiasm gap. I think we could say both parties are charged. When you zero in on the independents, they are less enthusiastic, and that is one of the things that makes for a wild card factor. Yes, Democrats do have the independents. I have the breakout right now. This is still, we're talking about the congressional generic ballot question. If the November midterm elections were held today, which candidate would you vote for in Congress in your district? Again, among independent voters, 42% choose Democrat, 30% opt for the Republican, 14% are still undecided. So there's a little bit of a wild card factor on two fronts As things heat up over the next six weeks, will [00:06:00] independent voters become more enthusiastic or will they drop off? That's a key question. I wanna move on to, just two other things, 'cause I don't wanna say m-much. I'm sure you have a lot to respond to. But when we look at the issues, and we're talking about affordability, job loss due to AI, American leadership around the globe, regaining trust following the Epstein file bombshell release, keeping the American dream alive, who has the best solution to immigration, I got a few more, making America healthy or the healthiest nation, fixing healthcare, and preventing the spread of crime. That's nine issues. Voters say that Democrats handle better or are in a better position to deliver on seven of those. [00:07:00] however, the Republicans, according to voters, Republicans handle better or are more likely to deliver on two of those. And those two are immigration and crime. Those are the two issues Republicans have not lost the advantage on. They are perceived by the electorate as, handling better and, more likely to deliver on those issues. Those also happen to be two of the top issues consistently over the last election cycle. And make no mistake about it, they are important issues. Here's... I'm gonna boil it down to two things. And, of course, an election this complex doesn't boil down to these two things, but these are two things to watch. I'll frame it like this: that party which can deliver better on easing voters' [00:08:00] anxieties and giving a sense of security is the party that I believe will have greater success in the midterms. I'll take it another step and I'll say that party which can connect better on local issues is also the party that will have success. For the Democrats, that's going to be data centers. the Democratic Party is perceived as, being better or more on top of or more aligned with voters, on blocking, data centers. That's from the voter perspective, and that very much is a local issue. That's an issue happening in communities and backyards across America. So that's the potential where Democrats can position themselves to really command on what drives voters at the local level. On the flip side, for Republicans, [00:09:00] it's crime. Crime is talked about nationally, but voters do not pay attention to crime statistics nationally. They pay attention to what's happening in their neighborhoods, in their communities, and in, sometimes, oftentimes on their streets. So crime is very much a local issue, and that is an advantage that the Republicans have. I am looking for these two issues to get a lot of, coverage and, increasingly talked about, on the national scene and on the local scene, and those are two ways in which the parties are going to duke it out. And then, of course, we can't forget about the economy, but that remains to be seen whether we have some issue breakout with the bond market, with the stock market, or a continuing surge of the cost of whether it's diesel, gas, or everything John Zogby: Okay. [00:10:00] a lot said and a lot on the money. Just some, just general comments. first is the Republicans do have the edge on immigration and, and crime. big issues that can become very emotional and be in their favor. However, what we noticed in this most recent poll is that the edge the Republicans have over the Democrats on these two issues is nowhere near as great as it had been over the course of the last year or year and a half since, Trump took office. the, are seen as better by 44%, 43%, to the Democrats' 36, 38%. means there's a lot of folks that are undecided still on that issue, and so not a runaway. [00:11:00] to go along with that, I remember back in, in '04, right before the election, this was Kerry versus George W. Bush. nine issues, John Kerry led b- George W. Bush as being better to ab- better able to handle eight of those issues. But the one issue where Bush outscored Kerry was, on, on national security. But it was 64%, for Bush and 26% for Kerry. And so those are the kinds of numbers that, the Republicans, I think, are gonna need in order to be more assured of carrying, the, ball, and winning the election, even though they're seen as not as able to handle seven of the, of the nine issues. secondly, the economy we're at a point right now [00:12:00] where the cost of fuel at the pump is soaring daily, and it doesn't really promise to be reined in at all with the blockade, with the action of the Houthis, both the pipeline and shutting off a good part the Red Sea. There's a stranglehold. And so we're-- we can't forget that the president, said that the-- this war would be over in August, that inflation would be reined in and start to turn around in August. And talk about those undecided, independents. Some of them now, kids are back in school, the election, about six weeks away. Some of them are starting to pay attention. And the key question, "What have you done for me lately?" and, "What will you do for me next?" are not in favor of the Republicans because they are in charge. [00:13:00] Democrats, not beloved at all. We've talked about that, at least the Democrats can say, not in charge at all." There is really a lot that can be said. I would bet $5 that the Democrats win in November, but I won't bet $50, let alone 100 or, $500. think it's that volatile, and I agree with you, it's gonna be even more volatile coming in, into the fall. One final thing that, that I didn't notice that I know you're very well aware of is that in last month's poll, we asked voters about would you vote for a Democratic socialist over a MAGA candidate? And they favored the Democratic socialist over the MAGA candidate. Now, we've seen a distinct tightening [00:14:00] up of that race. I can't remember the exact numbers, but it was very, close. In other words, perhaps, you and I have been suggesting that socialism, communism issue against Democratic candidates had not been connecting with voters. Maybe it's just, conjecture here, but maybe it is starting to connect with voters a little Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I, thought, from my perspective, I thought that the socialism issue would, would fall flat. I, seem to think that, and the data suggests, the data from our poll suggests that that could be, effective messaging on the Republican side. And that's all I'll say because these things are in flux, right? this is mid-September. As you have laid out, anything can change. [00:15:00] It's volatile. and, even-- I'll just say this one thing. Y- you're correct on the fact that the, the, perception of Republicans delivering better on crime is not, an exorbitant lead. it's a noticeable enough lead. But as you also mentioned, it's an emotional enough issue, that can really have an effect in the final days, if not week of, the, the, election. And I think the same could be said about the whole issue of socialism across the country. John Zogby: Yeah, there's a lot going on here, But bottom line is there's a lot going on and, it's complicated for voters, confusing for voters. There's not just simply a new issue every day, and that's not how you're supposed to run campaigns. [00:16:00] There are new complications day. And, the president has said, he wants his name on the ballot he wants his MAGA voters to vote for him. There is some evidence that some MAGA voters are peeling off support for the president. I'm not sure that they're going to vote for a Democrat. They may not vote at all. But, the split of the two parties about even in terms of how they're represented in the total electorate, neither party can lose, s- of its base. And I think particularly the Republicans, because as you point out, there is a deficit, still substantial deficit, am- independents in their view of the, the Republican Party. That's all I have to say. We're, gonna, revisit this because there's a lot more in the poll. We'll [00:17:00] probably, what, jump back here sometime early next week Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I think we should do another, on Monday or Tuesday and look at the approval ratings that we have John Zogby: Yeah. Yeah. That, are interesting too. Those have jumped. Okay Jeremy Zogby: okay. Have a great weekend. John Zogby: You too. Thanks Jeremy Zogby: care