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John Zogby: as we've said before, the president promised the war would be over by August. It's not. Promised inflation would be reined in by August. It's not. He's promised that the cost of fuel would be reined in, and it's not,
Jeremy Zogby: late summer, turning over into September, the excitement builds up. the things really change when you get into October because the issues get real in October,
John Zogby: What's your national message?" our national message is that the Trump administration has been a disaster." That's not a message. the third message is, "Oh, we'll w- we'll work across the aisle."
Work across the aisle on what?
John Zogby: It's Monday, September 21st, and welcome to another, this time special edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. I'm John Zogby, and there's my [00:01:00] son Jeremy. Hey, Jer
Jeremy Zogby: Hey, Dad
John Zogby: So we're gonna jump right into it, of course. and a lot of contradictions out there, and a lot of predictions out there at the same time.
if you look at the headlines, there's a blue wave that's happening. And, for a number of compelling reasons, the president's numbers, are low. battleground states, Democrats are leading, although not by much. the aggregators and the predictors are going by what they see today. And as, we noted last time, the numbers don't point right now in favor of the GOP doing well, in November, and yet there are these, lurking shadows, [00:02:00] that we see.
you're gonna get into the president's approval numbers. They're up a, a little bit from last month when they had reached a low for us, but they're not bragging numbers by any stretch. and I think overall what's troubling to me, in terms of trying to make some sense out of this for November, is that there appears to be an absence of positive messaging that is being tried or that works.
Democrats are studiously taking, are moving away from talking issues for fear of alienating the, mainstream of the party, especially the, establishment party leadership. They don't wanna go full Mamdani or full AOC, [00:03:00] risk of, alienating more moderate Democrats or, just moderate, independent voters.
the Republicans talking MAGA all the time now, it appears slightly to be connecting that they're dredging up fears of socialism. But as we've discovered, we're not so sure that socialism, is the, is, is, gonna work like it did during the McCarthy era. And so here we are, we're left with, an awful lot of spending, an awful lot of negative advertising in the absence of any, you know, positive messaging that's going on.
So you've got the numbers. What... Where do we stand today?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. So I guess let me just-- 'cause I, [00:04:00] I've got a lot of these approval numbers, and I don't wanna swarm folks with too much data. But we'll, begin with the overall approval,
the, the benchmark, if you will. And as it stands today, we have that the president stands with an overall approval rating of forty-two percent approve, versus fifty-six percent who disapprove.
Last month, it got to the high thirties. If I recall correctly, it was either thirty-eight or thirty-nine,
and that was in our August, national poll. So there has been a bump, and to your point, w-what's going on? it's not like there are signals that the economy is doing better. While I'm at it, let me just look at approval on Trump handling the economy.
That's thirty-eight percent approve fifty-seven disapprove. [00:05:00] Those are, terrible numbers. So also, meanwhile, since we've talked the last couple podcast episodes, the, the Iran war is expanding.
It's not going away, people are feeling it even more. prices have gone up at the gas pump to, record-breaking, or close to record-breaking.
Definitely in some states, record-breaking. I think I saw a California national average, was it exceeding eight dollars
a gallon? Is that right? of course, diesel is approaching seven. That's dangerous territory. So what is going right for the president that, we would see a little bit of a bump in his approval?
And then at the same time, remember, dropped the headline in our last podcast that the congressional generic, the, the Democrat lead w- narrowed narrowed from nine percentage points, [00:06:00] Democrat lead in August to six, as we stand today. So gonna say that I don't think that it is so much that, president himself is, catching speed or that MAGA is catching speed.
I think basic things are going on here, and then maybe we could dive into the numbers a little bit. I think on the one hand, I- A month ago, was saying I don't think the socialism spreading that MAGA message was gonna do much. I think it actually is working now.
I think the first sign I saw of that, and we've talked about this, is there are liberal and probably a little bit progressive, but mainly liberal Democrats are worried about it because they're not full on progressive or full on socialist, [00:07:00] but they're saying, "Wait, I don't know that this is the answer.
I don't think that this is really gonna work on a national scale. It's one thing if in a city here and there, the mayor, and the mayor's a socialist, but if we're gonna run with this as a national, message or platform, we're not really down with this." So I think that's putting a damper on, things for the Democrats.
And then I think also just the average voter is, is concerned about specter, no pun intended, of, a socialism sweep. The other thing I think is that crime plays into that. I think the Republican messaging of crime, which I discussed in the last podcast, is actually inherently a local message, a local issue. It's a national talking point, but the way people experience it, they experience it in [00:08:00] their neighborhoods, in their communities, in th- in their areas, and that has a distinct advantage to get to the local level in these key races, especially the Congressional. I did talk about Democratic, advantages and I said I, I think the, their placement of, where they stand with AI and data centers does help them.
But this is the last thing I'm gonna say. We're just getting full swing into election season heating up, and what I've observed in the past is that late summer, turning over into September, the excitement builds up. the things really change when you get into October because the issues get real in October, is things start intensifying. The undecided start saying, "What am I really gonna do? Who's really performing?" I feel like we're in [00:09:00] October right now. I feel like our numbers are revealing that maybe some voters are starting to make some decisions. and I feel like I've said a lot, so I don't know that I wanna go into numbers yet.
So why, don't I give you a chance to respond?
John Zogby: So let's look at that issue of crime for starters. The, real issue, because, objectively, FBI numbers, violent crime in general is down. It's down in major cities, down in small cities. and, to a g- degree, folks have internalized that. And yes, they are giving the Republican administration, good marks.
They're also giving good marks to their local mayors and their, local sheriffs. But I think the whole overriding issue, and you have written about this before in your Substack, is [00:10:00] security. Do people feel more secure or not than they did, whatever, a year and a half ago or two years ago? And the, the short answer to that is no, and it's on a number of fronts.
But look, most importantly, what presidents are supposed to do is provide safety, security, and, and a good economy. And this president is, has led the United States into a war becoming a major, Middle Eastern war. and around the corner, who knows what. The Saudis are, of course, are demanding full-on, American involvement and invasion.
That's a whole other story there. But as we've said before, the president promised the war would be over by August. It's not. Promised inflation would be reined in by August. It's not. He's promised that the [00:11:00] cost of fuel would be reined in, and it's not, as you just mentioned, diesel, approaching $7. Think of the dependency, this country has on trucking, and, the cost of diesel.
I don't know how independent truckers are gonna make it through all of this. And so add to that just what appears to be chaos. chaos in terms of the president, throwing out three major news outlets. Chaos in terms of a, an emphasis on Trump memorials and Trump's name, the Kennedy Center and, and, tradition and so on.
All of that speaks really for a Democratic landslide, and yet I saw Nancy Pelosi on CNN last week interviewed by Jake Tapper, and he said to her, [00:12:00] "What, is the Democratic message?" And she said, almost to a quote, we're so comfortable dealing with our people that we're leaving it up to individual Congress reps and, and candidates to work your own message 'cause we're so comfortable in our national message."
"What's your national message?" our national message is that the Trump administration has been a disaster." That's not a message. That's not something that an average voter can say, "Oh, here's what they've done for me lately, and here's what they're gr- going to do for me next."
Jeremy Zogby: Here
John Zogby: the third message is, "Oh, we'll w- we'll work across the aisle."
Work across the aisle on what?
Jeremy Zogby: What if they don't wanna work with you?
John Zogby: And what if they don't wanna work with you? Exactly. And so that's what's making this, [00:13:00] too interesting, I think, for comfort
Jeremy Zogby: No, I think that's absolutely true. W-we-we've-- I-- We've talked about this so much, about the lack of a face, a lack of the--
of a vision, and yet it-- that it becomes so crystal clear in, in that example, that prime example that, poor Nancy Pelosi just didn't have an answer because they don't. And, and so it doesn't become difficult to see that when, we look at the, rating on affordability of the president, 36% approve, uh, 59% disapprove, that... would think, all right, voters in masses are gonna run to the Democratic Party, but what are they talking about with affordability?
I'm looking up w-w-what are actual national message talking points, and I'm coming across, gonna hold utility public hearings."
John Zogby: Yeah
Jeremy Zogby: basically what that [00:14:00] translates to is we're gonna have a town hall, we're gonna have voters come in and complain about what we already know that they complain about. And so in the midst of a major war, it becomes really problematic. do you jump ship? It, it-- What, what-- And not that the president, the, the president and MAGA have any solution with regards this war, 'cause they don't. They're still trying to make it up
after all these months. But then what about the party?
You-- So you, transition them, in-into the House and in the Senate, and they don't really have any answers for anything. I, don't wanna say anything. they're stronger on healthcare. I think they're stronger on capturing the sentiment, the anti-sentiment, towards data centers and the concern of AI. But, this is, what I'm gonna say. Things are gonna get... I know this. Things are gonna get a [00:15:00] lot more interesting in the coming weeks. what we know now is the race is tightening, not because either party is setting the world on fire, but because of, I think, actually a lack of competitiveness
John Zogby: yeah, I think you're right. And, I just warn people out there to hold your bets, number one, and I really don't believe the predictors right now. Yes, it does look better for the Democrats today. I do believe the, if the election were held today, we'd have a different majority party in both houses, pick up, s- net, new governorships and, state legislatures.
Election is not today. it is not today. That's as far as I'm willing to go, and I'm gonna sign [00:16:00] off
Jeremy Zogby: I'm just gonna say something about the predictors. over the years, especially when this started, I, that they had a tendency to be pretty, pretty accurate. I-- To what degree, I've never done the math, in research on figuring out Polymarket's accuracy rate or any of the other ones' platforms. but w-what I wanna say is, by nature, people who gamble have an interesting perspective on human nature. that's a fact. think of professional poker players. I would specify specifically professional gamblers an interesting take on human nature. 100% true. understand that these betting markets have flooded the gates or opened the gates to all kinds of people, and the masses involved in these [00:17:00] betting markets are not necessarily professional gamblers.
They're just greedy people hoping to make a lot of money, and that's a difference right there. And so that's why, one could make the case today these betting markets are a lot less accurate because they've opened the door to, a different kind of audience.
John Zogby: So we'll stick to old-fashioned polling, and we'll move on. We're gonna do another podcast on these numbers, do you think? Or w-
Jeremy Zogby: oh yeah
John Zogby: yeah. Okay. So we'll see everybody soon
Jeremy Zogby: Take care
John Zogby: too. Thanks