Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] It would be not a jump, because is the Republican brand under Trump. That is being nasty, being mean, and, pushing the edge on insults
John Zogby: At least in the state of Ohio, we saw where a candidate, went too far
Jeremy Zogby: and And so what did that ad do? It opened up the wounds for the millions of people who are going through this
John Zogby: It's Friday. Welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. Hey, Jer, how you doing?
Jeremy Zogby: I am flooded, like you are, with questions about
John Zogby: I am Yeah, me too. And, I've actually been trying to answer them. And what I want to talk about is the real polling in real time that we did in the great state of Ohio, because, [00:01:00] we're actually just discussing this in public for the first time. So I'm gonna set the table on this. We did a, a private proprietary poll in Ohio.
The timing was unplanned. it was for, close associates of ours. And frankly We scheduled a poll for last Wednesday and Thursday. So that would be, the 29 to 22nd and 23rd. Now, interestingly, as we started the poll, the story started to break about the Ramaswamy ad used against Amy Acton, in which he utilized, her, estranged mother.
everybody knows that, that story and that ad. But we were polling it in real time, and what we discovered was that the first full day of polling w- with about, [00:02:00] 250, 300 respondents, we had Amy Acton leading, two to three points, pretty much what the other polls were showing. But the very next day, we saw her leading in that single day, Thursday alone, by, nine, 10, maybe even 11 points at, certain points in time.
And importantly, by that time, the story, the conversation, the coverage about the ad became much more persuasive, pervasive. In, the final analysis, the final average was Amy Acton leading by eight points. A big jump, a big drop for Ramaswamy, major gain for the Democrat, and it had an impact as well on the U.S.
Senate race, where Sherrod Brown, former longtime U.S. senator, t- trying to get back into the U.S. Senate, [00:03:00] leading, JD Husted, who had been appointed by President Trump, to fill in JD Vance's seat, was behind-- is behind in everybody else's poll. But we saw Sherrod Brown's lead really jump dramatically.
I think, the fact that the president and the vice president embraced , a lot of Republican candidates in both Ohio and throughout the nation distanced themselves from the ad. and, my conclusion is that, it obviously hurt and backfired Ramaswamy and, the Republicans, and I do believe We saw injury to the Republican brand perhaps nationwide
so not ready to make broad predictions yet, but at least in the state of Ohio, we saw where a candidate, went too [00:04:00] far
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. And it really should be no surprise, I, Not that you and I would have ever been invited to that boardroom discussion when they rolled out the idea of that ad, but, just knowing people like we know people. Look, people-- Some, some journalists were asking me, "Why do you think that ad could have, a negative impact?"
And it's simple, okay? There's a disturbing trend of family estrangement. I've, never seen anything like it in my life. in the last couple of years, this trend, this, this, phenomenon, you're hearing it more and more on the ground. And it doesn't take, a, a humanitarian or a psychologist to understand that somebody who goes through that, that's tantamount to losing a limb, in which the only way you know how to deal with it is you have to forget about it. And so what did that ad do? It opened up the wounds [00:05:00] for the millions of people who are going through this, and it just really showed poor calculation on the Ramaswamy teams that they d- you know, they single-handedly focused on, the, the, those who are on the angry side of the family estrangement, but they totally miscalculated and negated the people who have the wounds.
And I think the public to us in our poll that says something about his character and that says something probably about his leadership. And of course, that poll was last week. It looks like that's the trend line. It looks like that's what's going to happen. Unfortunately, we aren't going to have another poll, but it looks, looks as you have suggested, they may have damaged their brand.
The question is whether it has larger implications for the nation. It would be not a jump to say that it does, [00:06:00] because is the Republican brand under Trump. That is being nasty, being mean, and, pushing the edge on insults
John Zogby: I agree with you. that's a very good point about the family estrangement and the fact that it's burgeoning, actually, in this country. But, let's put, morality and ethics aside for a second. The broadest implication to me is what would make anybody think in a practical way that would work for a candidate?
There... I don't, I, can't see how anybody would even think that there would be a plus. Now, yeah, as you point out, if strategists are simply talking to the angry and want to reach out to folks [00:07:00] that are angry and want to, take off the gloves and destroy another person, then fine, But that's not America.
America, that includes so many people who find out that a little four-year-old is suffering from leukemia and put a fundraiser on, behalf of the... America are the, the people who line up envelopes from all sorts of groups and give $3 and $4 to charities because they feel that they're, they can help.
America is not, a, a nation of people who wanna hate their neighbors. And I don't know, the-- I'm revealing myself here, in ways in which I'm uncomfortable. But, the hate has to stop. [00:08:00] Maybe something good does come out of this. Not only that Ramaswamy is under the bus where he deservedly belongs, on, on this, but, maybe, th- that, our political people may think twice, when it comes to running, really stupid and terrible ads like this
Jeremy Zogby: that what, that is, gladiator politics, The Colosseum in the 21st century. But, so let's get to the question that everybody's asking, right? And, everybody wants to know what's gonna happen. And I, haven't talked to you this morning. I can imagine you probably will agree that I
I'm gonna say, I don't know. number one, gonna go into the field tomorrow. We're gonna go into the field at, in Michigan. We're gonna do the Abdul El-Sayed, Mike [00:09:00] Rogers race, and then we're gonna do a national poll for the Congressional generic. we'll have results Monday in, the afternoon. We'll probably be among, if not the last polling firm to have results. look this weekend for a lot of firms to cast their, final polls and release them over the weekend. We're pushing it right up to the, the last minute by releasing Monday afternoon because we wanna capture that last-minute trend, because nothing is certain.
And why is Why do I say that is because talked about it, many times. I- I'll use different terminology. There are many gray swans, and there are many black swans. a- and I'm talking about, m- events and then possibly known unpredictable events. That's black swans and gray [00:10:00] swans. And, what's gonna happen to the markets won't. Look what happened in the Brazilian election, right? When, between Lula and Bolsonaro, the real crashed, right? And then economists were saying that they were worried that was gonna reverberate around. L- look at what's going on. there's still hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. anything can happen, and I just don't like seeing the headlines that say 75%, prediction that this is gonna happen or that's gonna happen. I feel that we will be in a much better position when we do our poll and we speak with the people. We'll have the data, and they'll tell us, and we'll release it on Monday
John Zogby: Yep. So stay tuned. That'll come in the form of a release, and then we'll have a thorough discussion what the, the day after the election when all the results come in. Is that how we're planning it?
Jeremy Zogby: [00:11:00] and y- this is my last comment. around the summer, I was feeling like this was a kind of a boring midterm election. Somewhere in late September, it got really interesting, and now it's, the-- I saw the figure, correct me if I'm wrong, 45 million already voted.
Is that right?
John Zogby: It, is right. It is by far and away a record turnout, and the demographics are young and, non-white
Jeremy Zogby: as I think we would expect with the, early voting, so it's gonna come down to election day and I guess all that I'll say is, gonna be in a much better position to know because there still is the possibility that some interesting things can happen over the next few days.
And that's why I suspend my judgment, [00:12:00] and I'm not going to tell people, with more than 72 hours that, "Oh, this is guaranteed to happen." I'll be in a better position Monday afternoon
John Zogby: Wise position to take. Okay, gotta run to the next one.
Jeremy Zogby: Take
John Zogby: Take care.