Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] What's coming down the pike now that we've entered the month of surprises that is the month of October?
John Zogby: And it's safe to say if the Democrats blow this one, there really needs to be an autopsy. and an autopsy not because they lost, but an autopsy on a dying or dead body.
Jeremy Zogby: Do not underestimate the possibility that a critical mass of voters ultimately believe or come to the conclusion that while Democrats have the advantages, they also may appear that they do not have a plan to govern.
John Zogby: It's Monday morning and welcome to another edition of Real Polling in Real Time. John Zogby and I'm here with my son, Jeremy. H- how you doing, Jer?
Jeremy Zogby: I'm doing well. What's going on?
John Zogby: Okay. I think a couple of things. I, for me, I, would like to, in the second part of [00:01:00] this, brief podcast to address, whole bunch of polling that came out, Senate, and gubernatorial races.
But for starts, I thought I would turn it over to you. You had fascinating Substack piece about, surprises in presidential elections and, it, it was very comprehensive. So as one fellow history professor to another, fellow history professor, I was really proud that you came up with of those examples, and I thought maybe what you could do is just cherry-pick a few and remind people that there is a phenomenon known as October surprises that, of which have been real game changers, in elections.
So I'm kinda sandbagging you a little bit, 'cause we never really talk much [00:02:00] about our topics. We didn't talk anything about our topics today, so maybe a little bit of a surprise, but you wrote the piece. So what are some of those October surprises that mattered and that stand out to you?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. there's a lot of them, and I provided the list of, on the presidential election side as well as the midterm. And, it looks like pretty much almost every cycle there's some major surprise. Of course, a lot of this is in-- A good amount of it can be allegations and, leaks and, the operatives on both sides, holding the juiciest information that they're sitting on and, releasing it and hoping to push, an, an advantage for whichever party dropped it.
And yes, it looks like although it's, technically impossible to, definitively say that any of these did it, but there's strong [00:03:00] indication that they moved the needle. And so without further ado, let me just... I'm not even gonna define them. I'm just gonna get into the titles. and everybody will remember all these.
going back to 2000, George W. Bush's DUI, in 1976. His arrest for a DUI surfaced in October. the following presidential cycle election, the Osama bin Laden tapes showing Osama bin Laden was still alive, broadcast by Al Jazeera. Again, that was in
John Zogby: gonna stop you for one second 'cause I was doing daily tracking for Reuters then, and I can tell you that those really moved the needle
Jeremy Zogby: Yep Yeah. And then in 2008, the global financial meltdown. enough said. 2012 too occurred, Mitt Romney's 47% video, the, the leak. I'm sure, folks remember that. That wasn't too long ago. And then of course, Hurricane Sandy, also known [00:04:00] as Frankenstorm, hitting, around Halloween, days before the election.
And, Governor Chris Christie, gave an appearance that he was almost endorsing Obama. the Access Hollywood tape, of course, who can forget that? 2016, followed by the Comey letters or the indictment of Hillary Clinton for her personal, email server scandal. 2020 of course, was no less, shocking with Trump, testing positive for COVID, and then the Hunter Biden laptop.
And then 2024, not as explosive, but definitely impactful. It was, the same phenomenon. On one side, it was the Madison Square Garden controversy and the joke about, from the Republican side about Puerto Rico as a, an island of garbage. To the Democrats' response, focusing in on the racism, [00:05:00] but arguably hammering too hard about the Madison Square Garden, rally being a Nazi rally, prompting the President Trump to pull a public stunt in which he drove around a garbage truck making fun of the whole thing.
And that really looked like, that had some kind of effect on the undecided. that's up for debate. Anyway, looking at the midterms, a shorter list but comprehensive. 2002 and the tragic death of, Minnesota Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, and the appearance that the Democratic memorial for him turned into a political rally, putting off independent voters.
And then in 2006, Mark Foley, a scandal in which a Republican representative in Florida, it was discovered, sent sexually explicit messages to teenage aides. 2018, the migrant [00:06:00] caravan. I remember that. 2018, also mail bombings, allegedly a Trump supporter mailing pipe bombs to DNC offices. And then last year, the scandal surrounding two of the most watched candidates, Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate in Georgia, very conservative, who it was, said that he had paid a former girlfriend to have an abortion.
And then in Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz, the Republican challenger or candidate, allegedly accused of conducting animal research involving cruelty. And so it begs the question What's coming down the pike now that we've entered the month of surprises that is the month of October? And really, this is my last point.
It's a reminder, it's a fool's game to make predictions four weeks even though Democrats look like they have a lot of advantages. Do not [00:07:00] underestimate the possibility that a critical mass of voters ultimately believe or come to the conclusion that while Democrats have the advantages, against a unpopular incumbent presidency and the president's, party, they also may appear that they do not have a plan to govern.
And I say that, do not have a plan to govern, because that's important. That's different than raising holy hell once, in the event they take the House and the Senate. And so anything can happen with so many things looming over the nation from the war and the economy and a whole host of things. Let's watch out for what event could happen that could tip the, needle in, either way or just maybe dampen turnout in general
John Zogby: I'm in total agreement. And, to the polls. The New York Times and, [00:08:00] Siena College just came out with a whole bunch of battleground Senate and gubernatorial It, is clear that Democrats are in the ascendancy. of the six states that were done, Democrats lead in, in five of those states.
And, the, Siena/New York Times polls, together with other polls, number one, show momentum at this point in time, October 5th, we're talking, on the Democratic side. They show Democrats actually leading or competitive in some states that were on nobody's radar screen. and thirdly, what they also show is that, you're seeing Republicans who had been comfortably ahead... example, gubernatorial, Byron, Donald, gubernatorial candidate, [00:09:00] Republican in Florida, now distancing himself from Donald Trump. the same time, there was another poll, that came out, NBC, Telemundo, indicating that, Hispanic support for the Democrats is at about where it normally be, or had been for Democ- excuse me, Democrats to do well. as opposed to, underperformance the Democrats had or overperformance that Trump had in, in 2024. So what I'm concerned about is, we've talked about this before, but now in a different context, agency Is there anything Republicans can do to win it? as opposed to are the possibilities what Democrats can do [00:10:00] to lose And that's what I wanna dwell on for a couple of minutes. I think there's little that Republicans can do except distance themselves from Donald Trump right now.
Jeremy Zogby: Jer
John Zogby: We're starting to see that. That's about it. it's dicey to run on, "It wasn't our fault. It was our guy's fault." It's dicey also because these are members and wanna be members of, both houses of Congress who need, the federal government largesse, who need, to be taken care of in their districts and states from a president who can be pretty vindictive, who can also go into a district, or into a state and trash, which he's begun to do, already. so I think that's [00:11:00] about the only thing Republicans can do, but it's risky,
themselves, especially when the automatic comeback is, where were you the last couple of years when things were going to hell in a handbasket and you were supporting your party's president. Now, what can the Democrats do? the worst thing they can do, and you alluded to this, is nothing at all. we've talked about this before, but you're not hearing with clarity from moderate Democrats, establishment Democrats, what are you gonna do about affordability? What are you gonna do about the price oil, price of, gas? just what are you going to do? Iowa, for example, is a clear example. It was, for many years, battleground state. It has been clearly voting Republican, clearly voting Trump the [00:12:00] last several, cycles. And yet right now, Democrat Josh Turek is leading, the, the, Republican candidate and the f- the favorite.
But w- there is a farm crisis. What are Democrats gonna do about that farm crisis? that's what voters have to hear. It's the party this far. We've said this many times before, sorry for the reputat- for the repetition. It's, brought the party, this far and with this momentum, it can get tiresome if there are no solutions that are being offered. The solutions that are being offered are by the progressive wing of the party. And incidentally, the progressive wing looks to be doing, at this moment, f- far better job not only in [00:13:00] focusing on solutions, but a far better job at the polls the moderate wing is
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah. it, a perfect analogy was 2022 when, or a good analogy, 2022 when Biden and the Democrats were the inc- the incumbents. And around this point, there was near certainty that the red wave was coming, and it didn't. It was a poor performance by both parties, which is, entirely possible to happen again.
And so I, think, I'll tell you another, another communication leak or admittance, whatever you wanna call it, that came from the Paxton campaign went something like this. he said, "I'm not in charge of the messaging." In other words, this is coming down top-down chain of command from the national strategist.
I suspect that's the case in, both instances with both parties, that there are national [00:14:00] talking points. What both parties can do to, pull ahead would be to reorient this towards what it is, a state race, a local race. G- move away from the national talking points and address the problems on the ground.
There's all kinds of them. On the Democratic side, you said it's affordability. It's gotta do better than public hearing, public hearings on utility bills and affordability. there's data centers, there's crime, there's all kinds of stuff that are national talking points, but inherently local issues that affect the voters in those districts that, can be zeroed in on.
But this is the moment where the leadership has to be on full display, and I'll go back to 2022. remember Mehmet Oz, against, Fetterman, that was, leading up to be a tight race. And to me, the moment was, [00:15:00] there was a recording of Oz at a rally on stage and, he said, "I'm as tough as nails."
And the way that he delivered it ensured to everybody that he was not tough because it didn't sound tough. And that kind of moment where people realize this isn't gonna be leadership,
that can happen, and the way to avoid that is to tap into what really are the issues that are shaped to the state voters, to the district voters.
John Zogby: High stakes here. And it's safe to say if the Democrats blow this one, th- there really needs to be an autopsy. and an autopsy not because they lost, but an autopsy on a dying or dead body. i- this is the Democrats to lose. And what I'd like to do in our next podcast is [00:16:00] take a look at individual state races and what's going on in those races, including some, congressional races too.
we've got a fascinating one, not in the district where we live, but adjacent us, Elise Stefanik's in the north country of New York that's a lot more competitive than folks anticipated it'd be. But let's sign off for now. Good talking.
Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Have a good week. We'll talk again
John Zogby: Okay