Jeremy Zogby: [00:00:00] the problem is, the Democratic Party from an, an independent perspective is a, a little bit of an empty suit.
John Zogby: remember, you're talking now about hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 22 days spent on 7 million voters, to persuade 7 million voters. Pretty staggering, when, you think about it.
Jeremy Zogby: It looks like the internal discussion within the Republican Party is one of fear, panic, and not having a plan B, although remember the October surprise and desperate measures call for drastic actions.
John Zogby: Monday, and that means this is a special edition of Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby. And once again, we have a couple of Zogbys. I'm John over here, and there's [00:01:00] Jeremy
Jeremy Zogby: How you doing?
John Zogby: I'm doing okay. And so we've got 22 days from this moment, for the election to happen. And, I'm certainly not gonna make a prediction That, that is totally irresponsible. There are so many races, and there are so many that are just too close to call. And frankly, we have at least 7 to 10% who say that they're not sure and undecided, and I think there's some soft support as well. But I'm at a point where I'm recalling the famous, coach and then general manager of the Boston Celtics during their heyday the 1960s, Red Auerbach. Red Auerbach had a, a practice, which is he would... When it looked pretty good during a game that the Celtics might win, he'd take out the cigar, [00:02:00] and then when he knew, absolutely was certain, that the Celtics were gonna win, he would light the cigar and smoke it. And of course, watching it on TV, that's what the camera focused on.
There is Red Auerbach lighting up the cigar. The game is in the bag. So I'm ready to say to those who either need to know or want to know that f- if you're a Democratic voter or leaning Democrat, can take out your cigar. light it yet, but take out your cigar, 'cause at this point in time, it's looking pretty good. we've got some races for the US Senate that are not close. North Carolina looks very good. New Hampshire is looking very good. So is Georgia well. the [00:03:00] problem is two of those three states are already, Democratic incumbents, so that would be one pickup. There are other states, though, that are still two or three points at most, others 0.7 or so, but there hasn't been much movement one way or another, so Democrats are holding. So there's a bunch of scenarios that can take place, but I would say that in this milieu right now, where Democrats really only need four pickups in the US Senate and three in the House, that, I'm in a, a position to say wouldn't be surprised if Democrats win majorities, in, in both houses of Congress. I can certainly go on to explain it as part of our conversation, [00:04:00] but are you there with me?
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah, I, but, I would just add this because I do agree with that. And, I think the way to sum it up on my end is history is on the Democratic Party side,
right? if a president has a poor approval rating or a not so good approval rating, traditionally, the opposing party is supposed to pick up about two dozen congressional seats and a handful of, Senate, seats, right?
That's how it-- that's how the, the historical trend goes. so they have that going for them. But the problem is, the Democratic Party from an, an independent perspective is a, a little bit of an empty suit.
What they do have going for them is they're not Donald Trump. Donald Trump has, blundered so much [00:05:00] that the last week it's been one leak after another, whe-whether it was Paxton in Texas admitting that he's very concerned.
Republican strategists, not even quietly but publicly, admitting that they're getting very concerned of all rankings, state, national level strategists. And then the president himself has, said some things at speeches, something that somebody who's concerned about losing would say, right?
Recall in Texas, "If we lose this state, I'll never forgive you." A winner doesn't talk like that. So it looks like the internal discussion within the Republican Party is one of fear, panic, and not having a plan B, although remember the October surprise and desperate measures call for drastic actions.
That could be going on right this moment. I don't know what's [00:06:00] gonna happen with this story about, Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. Is there anything really there or is that just pure desperation that's gonna backfire on the president and MAGA? I'm talking about the fact that we woke up this morning to learning her, home was raided by ICE agents.
So if they don't have something there, they better, The Republicans and MAGA, that is, they better prepare for a spectacular backfire of that. but there's so many things loom-looming over the nation, but I wanna get back to the fact that the Democrats as the opposing party really should have this in the bag.
It really is just gonna come down to this, and this is the last thing I'll say Do a majority of voters in those battleground races want the Democratic Party to raise holy hell come election day? Because that's about the biggest plan I think that the [00:07:00] Democrats have that they know they're going to do and that they are probably confident that they can carry through on.
That is nail the president, impeach the president, and just wage holy hell on him. It's gonna come down to whether voters want that
John Zogby: All right. Good analysis, as always. a, a few comments. we're starting to pick up anecdotally that, you know exactly what you said, that the, the Democrats are the anti-Trump party. we've talked about that many times. But it's at this point that you expect to see some substance, voters are asking, "What are you gonna do?" and many candidates are f- fearful of going what you might refer to as full Mamdani. not only talking about affordability, but [00:08:00] spelling out, programs and, policies that attack the issue of affordability. So it's not just simply a cliché, but it means something. And remember, you're talking now about hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 22 days spent on 7 million voters, to persuade 7 million voters. Pretty staggering, when you think about it. The other thing is that Republicans have run out of things they can do except the outrageous. And you're right, there is some desperation. And, it would be safe to say at another time in another campaign, a, a bold spectacle like raiding a congresswoman's home might be something that c- Republicans could take advantage of. [00:09:00] we kinda see that's not exactly where independent voters are, voters who are undecided are. What's that got to do with the price of eggs? is what is the reaction that, that I'm gonna hear? What's that got to do with the diesel fuel, and prices at the supermarket, stopping the war in Iran?
That's what's on people's minds. And remember, those three issues alone are one, as you've pointed out many times, one super issue now. This, an ICE raid, I believe, will only backfire unless, of course, there's a smoking gun, in her, in, in her living quarters. in the final I'm at a point now where I see [00:10:00] Democrats leading, on average two or three points, some very close ones, some not so close ones. I see Republicans without a message and tied to, Donald Trump, is not a good thing at all given his, not only his overall approval ratings, but his approval ratings on the issues that really matter And then as you pointed out, seeing him, if-- I'm not a psychologist, so I can't say coming apart at the seams, but I do see and hear him talking about things that are just not relevant, that
people just don't care about
Jeremy Zogby: no, I mean that, we aren't psychologists, right? But we study people and we study elected officials. We study people running for office. And, look, it, it-- when you-- [00:11:00] it's not so much using the DSM-IV manual to say what the psychological, aspect is. It's what they say that we as pollsters can analyze as indicators, right?
And that's what we're looking at
John Zogby: So let me just focus
Jeremy Zogby: oh, one more thing. And the other thing that, that he's saying that, we didn't talk about, you mentioned the war, but now there's talk about, finishing off the job or, the biggest, the biggest bombing or whatever, launching of a new attack. The big easy question is, if you're Iran and Iran's leadership and you hear that, what do you do before election day if, you know that's true?
And so that, that just adds another dimension to this and, we're already seeing the war fire up to [00:12:00] levels we haven't seen yet, where now Saudi Arabia is completely bombarded
John Zogby: And requesting help from the United States and Trump not giving help, from the man who started it all in the first place. and let's not forget, and, w- we're obviously not gonna go over time limit here, the tr- administration just cut a deal with Vladimir Putin over diesel fuel, which is something that, a number of Republicans are opposed to, particularly those Republicans who are not MAGA Republicans and, who, want, to emerge victorious, or at least, Russia to be defeated in all this.
So on one hand, there are sanctions against Putin and Russian [00:13:00] oligarchs and the Russian people, and on the other hand, here is a, a major side deal to provide fuel and to fuel the Russian economy, which means to fuel the war against Kyiv. very, complicated stuff. I don't see it in any way, at least from my vantage point now, playing in Republicans' favor
Jeremy Zogby: Yeah
John Zogby: I guess that's all I have to say
Jeremy Zogby: I think we covered a lot in a good amount of time. so let's just be prepared to do another one of these at the end of the week or at the beginning of next week
John Zogby: Yep, we will. Okay, have a good
Jeremy Zogby: Yep. Take care.
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