Part I
By Jeremy Zogby, Managing Partner
Donald Trump’s 2024 win was narrow in the popular vote, but decisive and sweeping as he took all battleground states.
As the exit polls came in, it became clear his winning coalition went well beyond his 2016 win, with stronger support from a diverse coalition including young voters (particularly young men), Hispanics, parents with children at home, first-time voters, union voters, and more.
Furthermore, the President’s approval ratings among these cohorts generally held strong during his first 100 days.
From May 2025 to March 2026, John Zogby Strategies has launched 9 waves of national polls targeting likely voters in the 2028 general election. Below, we’re showing the first wave of likely voters in late May of 2025 and the most recent from March 18, 2026.
Here, we chart approval/disapproval ratings of the President’s job in office among key voting blocs that are of particular interest because of both their importance in election turnout and their significance as bellwether groups.
| The All-Important Independents |
May 2025 Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score | March 2026
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score |
| Unaffiliated | 40% – 54% | -14 | 37% – 58% | -21 |
On Election Day in 2024, 34% of the electorate identified as independent, outnumbering Democrats. According to the 2024 exit polling data. Still, Harris won this group by 3 percentage points. Our polling shows that a plurality of independent voters have voted for both Democratic and Republican candidates equally over the years, which makes this group a wild card and why they’re so important to track and understand.
We can see that after President Trump’s 100 days in office, independent voters were already turning away from the President. And that trend has solidified. The question remains: can Republicans regain enough independent voters as we head towards the midterms? The numbers above speak for themselves.
| Race | May 2025
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score | March 2026
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score |
| White | 52% – 46% | +6 | 50% – 49% | +1 |
| Hispanic | 53% – 41% | +12 | 39% – 58% | -19 |
While more white voters still approve of the President than disapprove, he is only net positive 1 percentage point among his typical base and the nation’s largest voting bloc. That is the first major indicator flashing red for the President when looking at race demographics.
Equally important is the collapse of support from Hispanic voters who helped to carry the President to a sweeping victory in November of 2024. Less than a year ago, Trump was double-digit net positive with this growing and increasingly important voting bloc; today, the President finds himself underwater by nearly 20 percentage points.
| Generations | May 2025
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score | March 2026
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score |
| Gen Z/Young Millennials | 50% – 45% | +5 | 41% – 55% | -14 |
| Boomers + | 40% – 60% | -20 | 46% – 54% | -18 |
Although Donald Trump barely won the under-30 vote in November, it was still surprising to many, given how this cohort voted in 2020 (largely for Biden). But in 2024, while the gender gap was enormous between men and women under 30, the President turned out more young men, and for a while throughout his presidency, Trump had net-positive approval ratings among the under-30 vote. They were with Trump because of the expectations that he’d kickstart an economy hit by inflation, and because a negative outlook increasingly paralyzed young voters.
Then, months into the Trump Presidency, came tariff wars, an explosive re-emergence of the Epstein files, Venezuela, and a major escalation of war with Iran in a geostrategic area that holds the key to modern life and the global economy. We arrive at a significant underwater territory among this cohort, which will play a role in the Midterms, either by turning out or not, as often happens with the under-30 vote in Midterm elections.
| Household | May 2025
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score | March 2026
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score |
| Parents | 61% – 36% | +25 | 52% – 45% | +7 |
| Union | 60% – 40% | +20 | 47% – 51% | -4 |
Parents and union voters made a decisive break with the Democratic Party in 2024, gravitating more towards President Trump during his 100 days and into the summer. Both groups, driven by deep concerns about work, the cost of living, raising children, etc., strongly supported Trump. While parents generally still approve of the President’s job in the White House, they’ve fallen significantly. The same is basically true among Union voters, though note the President is now underwater with them.
| Location | May 2025
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score | March 2026
Approve/Disapprove Ratio |
Net Score |
| Small city | 52% – 45% | +7 | 41% – 55% | -14 |
| Suburbs | 45% – 53% | -8 | 43% – 57% | -14 |
While the President didn’t have strong support among suburban voters by May of 2025, he did have strong ratings from voters in small cities – perhaps seeing themselves as an extension of the so-called forgotten America, looking to the President to strengthen the economy and bring back factories. As of today, that is no longer the case, as they’ve made it clear that a strong majority disapproves of Trump’s job performance.
In the final analysis, there are still seven months until the Midterm Elections. But a little over one year into a Presidency that continues to generate controversy and bold actions, coinciding with the brevity of collapse among decisive voting blocs, raises serious concerns about how President Trump can rally Republicans to victory come November.
